Article: Hicks Shaping Up As Bruno Success Story?

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1605-Hicks-Shaping-Up-As-Bruno-Success-Story

[greengoblinrulz]

Twins have never been a 'new school' type of team but one thing Hicks has kept doin is drawing walks. This week, Aaron went only 1-8 but had only 1K but 6 walks which led to him stealing his first 2 bases & scoring 4 runs. Id rather take this type of OBP player than Ben Revere.

[jorgenswest]

As a rookie in 1981, Brunansky opened the season with Angels. After hitting .152 through 11 games (41 plate appearances) he was returned to the minors. He never played in the majors for the Angels again. A little over a year later he was traded to the Twins for Doug Corbett and Rob Wilfong in May of 1982. The Twins brought him up to the majors following the trade.

 

If the Angels had exercised more patience, he may have found success with them and the Twins may not have been able to acquire that key piece of the 1987 team.

[Shane Wahl]

Hicks has looked better over the last several games. He is drawing more walks and once again got another RBI hit today. The fact that the Twins are 8-7 while putting someone like Hicks (and maybe Arcia) in this kind of development is a damn good sign.

[RodneyKline]

Twins have never been a 'new school' type of team but one thing Hicks has kept doin is drawing walks. This week, Aaron went only 1-8 but had only 1K but 6 walks which led to him stealing his first 2 bases & scoring 4 runs. Id rather take this type of OBP player than Ben Revere.

His walks are not an encouraging thing. He is afraid up there at the plate and that is resulting in some walks. He does not seem to have a plan besides trying not to fail. I hope I am wrong but this is not a slump. It is a complete lack of confidence. They think they are helping him but the longer they do this to him, the harder it will be to get his confidence back in the minors. I think he could use going back to AA and see more fastballs until he wants to hit every one that is thrown. Right now even a fastball down the pipe does not look appetizing to him.

[RodneyKline]

Hicks has looked better over the last several games. He is drawing more walks and once again got another RBI hit today. The fact that the Twins are 8-7 while putting someone like Hicks (and maybe Arcia) in this kind of development is a damn good sign.

You are seeing something I am not seeing. Are you sure that it is not wishful thinking?

[DaveW]

You are seeing something I am not seeing. Are you sure that it is not wishful thinking?

I am seeing a team that has suddenly won 4 in a row, above .500 and is only 1 game out of first place. The pitching has been pretty solid, the defense has been decent or so and some of the bats seem to be coming around a bit (more to come)

 

I'm not going to predict they will keep all this up, but to say you shouldn't be at least somewhat encouraged at this start makes you a real scrooge.

[greengoblinrulz]

His walks are not an encouraging thing. He is afraid up there at the plate and that is resulting in some walks. He does not seem to have a plan besides trying not to fail. I hope I am wrong but this is not a slump. It is a complete lack of confidence. They think they are helping him but the longer they do this to him, the harder it will be to get his confidence back in the minors. I think he could use going back to AA and see more fastballs until he wants to hit every one that is thrown. Right now even a fastball down the pipe does not look appetizing to him.

baby steps.....is started the year week 1 but his week 3 numbers.....people would be encouraged. NO question he needs to start hitting, but some peripheral numbers are there this week.

[kab21]

It's a little early to call him a success story regardless of how loosely you use the word success. It's encouraging that he has only K'd once in the last 3 games.

[Nick Nelson]

It's a little early to call him a success story regardless of how loosely you use the word success.

I agree. Who's calling him one?

[jokin]

I agree. Who's calling him one?

 

Well. the headline could be taken that way without further context.

[kab21]

I agree. Who's calling him one?

 

Your article title. You did put a question mark after it but it's a stretch to consider his success questionable. You also said that it seems to be helping even though he still only has one hit in that selective sample.

[Ultima Ratio]

It's really too early to tell if the two week space cadet approach is behind Hicks or not. Since then he is striking out less and walking more, and I definitely see a better approach this week -- laying off the breaking pitches in the dirt. Maybe that's because he getting better pitch recognition, or a better idea of how he's being pitched, or maybe he is just timid. Since he has swung at some first pitch fastballs (weakly for outs because they were borderline balls maybe) this past week, I think he's working on one or two things only and is not just scared up there: 1) pitch recognition of benders and laying off and 2) trying to find fastballs to hit early. I'll take the walks until the bat comes around, but am glad he's moved down in the order. Let's check back in with another 3 weeks before uttering the words "success" and "story."

[Riverbrian]

If he can put more balls in play... We can ride this out.

[Kwak]

Rookies have a natural need to prove themselves--by hitting. As such they often attack most every pitch perceived to be in the strike zone. Clever pitchers realize the over-aggressive nature and bait said rookie with pitches out of the zone. The more the rookie chases--the more he struggles. Very few teams adopt the "pound the strikezone" philosophy like the Twins and give their pitchers more leeway in pitching out the zone. Consider Saturday's game: The WSox yielded 8 walks, yet it wasn't the walk that beat them, it was an 2B, followed by an IFers error. 2 runs in 10 innings--but 8 walks! In Twinsland had that happened Gardenhire would have been madly pacing and frequently sending Anderson to the mound for a chat with the pitcher. The rookies who are playing regularly, are all struggling at the plate Hicks the most, then Dozier, and to a lesser degree Parmalee. They are seeing many strikes, but are constantly baited with sucker pitches. The cure for that is patience and talking the walks. Eventually, pitchers realize they must throw more strikes which yields more hits.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Consider Saturday's game: The WSox yielded 8 walks, yet it wasn't the walk that beat them, it was an 2B, followed by an IFers error. 2 runs in 10 innings--but 8 walks!

 

That's incredibly rare and a flukish game to use as an example.

 

The Braves are first in team ERA, fourth in BB allowed.

 

The Rangers are second in team ERA, sixth in BB allowed.

 

The Royals are fifth in team ERA, second in BB allowed.

 

There is a strong correlation between walks and runs allowed. The Twins may be an aberration in that regard but they're the exception, not the rule (and one can only imagine how awful they'd be if they also gave up a league average number of walks).

[DK]

I agree with RodneyKline, that the walks are not an encouraging sign. He is getting himself into too many two strike counts. The book on him is pretty simple. Throw him fastball, fastball and then a breaking pitch. Has he had a hitters count all year? I'm still high on Hicks but he needs to change his approach at the plate.

[gunnarthor]

I like what Hicks has been doing since being moved. I'm not 100% sure that his swing is ok though. He certainly seems to have a good eye but he hasn't really made a lot of good contact, especially from the left side. His hit yesterday was an ugly roller that found a hole, not a good hit. On the other hand, I think with his eye, it'll make it easier for him to start making better swings.

[ThePuck]

I seem to remember a World Series championship team recently that allowed the 4th most walks in baseball with only one team allowing more total runs. They also had the best ERA in baseball.

 

Last year the Dodgers were 7th in walks allowed, but only three teams gave up less runs....Nats were 12th in walks allowed, only two teams gave up less runs.

 

I'm not a big fan of walks, one reason our team gives up so few walks over the last two seasons, is that our opponents are too busy beating the carp out of the ball instead.

[Nick Nelson]

Your article title. You did put a question mark after it but it's a stretch to consider his success questionable. You also said that it seems to be helping even though he still only has one hit in that selective sample.

 

The headline suggested that he might be "shaping up" as a success story. It's an early analysis of a promising trend that I've noticed. I thought I was pretty clear about that, with the hopes of avoiding pointless discussions of semantics. Obviously the hits haven't started coming yet but if he continues to take quality at-bats, they will.

[Nick Nelson]

I agree with RodneyKline, that the walks are not an encouraging sign. He is getting himself into too many two strike counts. The book on him is pretty simple. Throw him fastball, fastball and then a breaking pitch.

 

Would seem that approach has not been working very well over the past week since he's been getting on base at like a .500 clip, no?

[stringer bell]

From a hitting standpoint, walks are a really good thing. The whole focus of "moneyball" is the enhanced importance of getting on base. From a pitching standpoint, I think walks can be tolerated if they are exchanged for fewer hits and more strikeouts. The Twins, for many years, have been composed of low walk, low strikeouts starting rotations, with less than wonderful results. Other teams have tolerated more free passes in exchange for weak contact and missing bats. Back to the offensive side of the ledger, Minnesota is sixth (IIRC) in OBP because they are getting the second most walks per plate appearance and they are in the middle for run scoring despite being dead last in homers, and twelfth in OPS.

[twinsfan214]

I agree the walks are nice but he's just taking too many pitches and not knowing what to go for and getting lucky (it seems). However, I like that I'm seeing fewer swings and misses and more fly/ground outs. Yes, they're still outs but he's getting his bat on the ball a bit more often. To me, this will lead to more hits. I wonder though, did it seem like the last couple of pitchers were pitching him a bit differently? When he would get two strikes I would say "ok here comes the junk pitch which he will swing at and miss", but it didn't really happen with Peavy and Floyd.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Would seem that approach has not been working very well over the past week since he's been getting on base at like a .500 clip, no?

 

I don't understand devaluing the walk. It means much more than just avoiding an out (which, in itself, is incredibly valuable). It shows the ability to lay off bad pitches. It wears down the opposing pitcher. It shows a consistent approach to ABs. It shows that the player has a goal and is going to make the pitcher work to get him out.

 

Over 75 PAs, I'll take the young guy who is hitting .100 with a 15% walk rate every time over the young guy with a .400 BABIP and a 3% walk rate. One of those guys is going to start trending upward and the other is inevitably going to trend downward.

 

Hicks is starting to show meaningful improvements. It hasn't shown up in the stat line but if he continues down this path, he WILL be a productive major league hitter sooner rather than later.

[halfchest]

I was thinking the same thing. I watched both games this weekend and saw him come back from 0-2 and 1-2 counts to draw walks I was like dang. It's a very small sample size but he didn't look scared at the plate like he did in some of the games even a week ago.

 

My thoughts since bringing him up and he struggled those first couple games was well, you gotta give him at least six weeks and see if he can turn it around. Hopefully this week was a sign of things to come from him and he can start getting the barrel on the ball to go along with these walks.

[DaveW]

Haters gonna hate, if Hicks wants to be a long term leadoff man we definitely want him taking as many walks as possible, with his speed those walks often times will result with him on 2nd base, or if they don't steal could score on any double.

 

His walk rate and low strike out rate is a sign that he is getting more confident at the plate, the hits will start coming, they always do.

 

The cool thing is, if he is able to bounce back this season and turn it around then he will have the confidence in the future should he ever experience a slump again as well.

 

People forget that Hunter in his "rookie year" had a .217 BA and a sub .600 OPS through his first almost 200 at bats, the Twins ideally will show Hicks the same patience and it will pay off down the road.

[cmathewson]

His walks are not an encouraging thing. He is afraid up there at the plate and that is resulting in some walks. He does not seem to have a plan besides trying not to fail. I hope I am wrong but this is not a slump. It is a complete lack of confidence. They think they are helping him but the longer they do this to him, the harder it will be to get his confidence back in the minors. I think he could use going back to AA and see more fastballs until he wants to hit every one that is thrown. Right now even a fastball down the pipe does not look appetizing to him.

 

I don't see it that way. From where I sit, he got away from the guy he's been his whole career and was lost up there. How did this happen? It started right away, when he had five called third strikes in the first series on pitches he probably never had called on him. These pitches are not really hittable with his swing (being several inches off the plate), but he started swinging at them and either missing them or making easy outs. In the three-strikeout game that Nick mentions, he was expanding the strike zone all over the place.

 

So he took the night off (the last game Mastro played) and spent extra time in the cage with Bruno instead, to get back to the hitter he had been last year and in spring training. So far so good. Even his outs have been well stroked. And he's taking his walks. Hopefully it translates into more success.

 

One thing that is really odd about all his walks (he's second on the team in walks) is, normally when a guy is below the Mendoza line, pitchers don't bother to waste pitches on him. For example, when Butera was forced into everyday duty, pitchers just said "here it is, hit it" and he did, flying out at a prodigious rate. So why didn't they challenge Hicks more? Because advanced scouts noticed how he was swinging at balls out of the zone, so the pitchers kept throwing him those pitches. Now that he's taking them (and the umps aren't calling them anymore), pitchers will need to challenge him more. And he should have better pitches to hit.

[Badsmerf]

Still skeptical. Walks are great, more a sign that pitchers can't throw strikes than anything he did. He hasn't even made good contact for a long time. I don't get why pitchers aren't just pounding the zone and making him beat them with a hit. I still have serious doubts about his ability to put the bat on the ball. Maybe a more patient approach will help... or he'll just get behind in counts and see ****ty pitches to hit.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't understand devaluing the walk. It means much more than just avoiding an out (which, in itself, is incredibly valuable). It shows the ability to lay off bad pitches. It wears down the opposing pitcher. It shows a consistent approach to ABs. It shows that the player has a goal and is going to make the pitcher work to get him out.

On the one hand, I understand what people are saying when they suggest that the increased walks are a sign Hicks is being overly passive at the plate, which isn't exactly a change from his first couple weeks when he would stand in there and just watch pitches go by with little interest in finding one to drive.

 

On the other hand, the fact that he's walking at such a high rate indicates that the pitches he's laying off of aren't in the strike zone. It's not like he's sitting up there with the bat on his shoulder watching strike three repeatedly. He's taking what pitchers are giving him and getting on base. He's showing much better recognition and laying off borderline pitches with two strikes. That's a very meaningful development.

 

Right now pitchers are throwing enough balls that he's able to coax walks, but that's going to change. Given his sub-.100 batting average, pitchers are going to start attacking. Will he be able to take advantage and start mounting some legitimate numbers? If he continues with his current approach, absolutely. The guy had a top 5 OPS in the Eastern League last year, it's not like he can't hit.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

I don't see it that way. From where I sit, he got away from the guy he's been his whole career and was lost up there. How did this happen? It started right away, when he had five called third strikes in the first series on pitches he probably never had called on him. These pitches are not really hittable with his swing (being several inches off the plate), but he started swinging at them and either missing them or making easy outs. In the three-strikeout game that Nick mentions, he was expanding the strike zone all over the place.

 

So he took the night off (the last game Mastro played) and spent extra time in the cage with Bruno instead, to get back to the hitter he had been last year and in spring training. So far so good. Even his outs have been well stroked. And he's taking his walks. Hopefully it translates into more success.

 

One thing that is really odd about all his walks (he's second on the team in walks) is, normally when a guy is below the Mendoza line, pitchers don't bother to waste pitches on him. For example, when Butera was forced into everyday duty, pitchers just said "here it is, hit it" and he did, flying out at a prodigious rate. So why didn't they challenge Hicks more? Because advanced scouts noticed how he was swinging at balls out of the zone, so the pitchers kept throwing him those pitches. Now that he's taking them (and the umps aren't calling them anymore), pitchers will need to challenge him more. And he should have better pitches to hit.

 

I think cmathewson's explanation is the more likely one. Good post.