Concern for Byron Buxton?

[Cody Pirkl]

There’s no denying it, Byron Buxton has had a great season to date. Despite leading the team in all kinds of categories, it’s been a weird one. Is there any reason to worry about the Twins franchise icon moving forward?

 

Coming into the weekend, Byron Buxton has put up a tremendous season so far. He’s 36% above league average offensively according to wRC+ and has topped his career-high in home runs, well on his way to over 40 despite regular rest days. That being said, it's been a puzzling season for the Twins' star center fielder. While we can’t complain about his performance to date, it is worth wondering about Buxton moving forward.

The goal has always been to keep Byron Buxton healthy. Since 2019, he has been a well above league-average hitter whenever he’s been on the field. The Twins have accomplished that to an extent this season, as he’s avoided any IL trips thus far despite a few small injuries here and there leading to short absences. It’s widely understood that Buxton has been and will likely continue working through a chronic knee injury suffered in Boston back in April. Just something to keep in mind when looking at Buxton’s season.

As you can see, Buxton’s season consists of incredibly high highs and incredibly low lows. It’s possible that these brutal streaks coincide with flare-ups of his ailing knee, an issue that unfortunately doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. One thing is for certain, however, after a shortened 2021 season in which he would have paced out as one of the best in baseball, he’s completely changed his approach.

After an unbelievably well-rounded line of .306/.358/.647 in 2021, Buxton has essentially failed to provide anything at all at the plate aside from power. His .218 batting average is his worst mark since 2018 and his .293 OBP is his worst since 2020, a season in which he walked only 1.5% of the time. While he’s having a career year in terms of walk rate (7.9%), his strikeout rate of 28.2% is his highest since 2018 as well. His batting average on balls in play of .210 is also a career-worst by a long shot. Why might that be?

After a shortened 2021 season in which Buxton was one of the best hitters in baseball, his flyball rate has absolutely exploded from 38.4 to 50.3%. To put it simply, in more than half of his batted ball events he’s hitting the ball in the air. 26.5% of those fly balls have found the seats, but the other 73.5% are easy outs. This increase in fly balls has come at the expense of his line drives, a batted ball type that typically rewards hitters league-wide with a near .700 batting average. It’s worth noting that Buxton’s quality of contact remains intact and has afforded him a .262 xBA and .358 xWOBA to this point, but it seems flyball-oriented hitters league wide have underperformed so far in 2022.

Regarding the short term, it’s worth considering how such a flawed plate approach could affect him moving forward. Since May 11, Buxton is slashing .192/.273/.479, still a 110 wRC+, but nowhere near the superstar levels we’ve seen him achieve in the past. The entirety of that measure comes strictly from slugging percentage, as the batting average and on-base ability are quite frankly terrible. Masking those numbers are several high-profile home runs in the clutch, a trait that many believe isn’t a predictive or repeatable skill. His overall batting line wouldn’t change if just a few of his homers hadn’t come in such clutch spots, but would the perception around him change at all?

In the long term, you have to desperately hope this change in approach isn’t an active choice that he intends to continue. We’ve seen that Buxton is still a valuable player while he’s selling out for fly balls, but becoming so one-dimension offensively cuts off any chance of being the MVP level player he’s capable of being. Furthermore, he’s able to take the mistakes he’s given and drive them over the fence regularly enough to mask his other deficiencies in 2022. What happens a few years down the road when that ability decreases with age?

There’s no action to take with Byron Buxton at this time, and it’s incredibly hard to be dissatisfied with his season thus far. Still, it’s worth pointing out that there has been a major change in his approach this season that has made him a decidedly worse offensive player. This “sell out for fly balls” approach has resulted in just three more big flies than he had in a near-identical amount of plate appearances in 2021, and every other offensive stat of his has suffered greatly as a result. Hitting home runs is fun, but he’s going to have to continue to do so in high-leverage spots to make any meaningful contributions on offense.

Perhaps it’s his knee injury, or perhaps it was an active choice to get the ball in the air as much as possible coming into the season. Either way, after several brutal stretches already this season followed by glimpses of what Byron Buxton can be, hopefully another change in approach is on the horizon. 

Perhaps it’s not fair to judge the way somebody achieves success. In Buxton’s case, however, it’s so hard to imagine why we’re seeing such a dramatic shift in approach coming off an MVP-caliber performance. Does this change in approach concern you? Are you happy to enjoy the big flies while they last and worry about the future when we get there? Let us know below!

 

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[Jeff D.]

Great with the glove. Pretty good arm. Fast. Fan favorite. Strike out prone. 

Great year? I don't think so. Hitting .220 at mid-point and being coddled don't equate to greatness for me. 

Twins Geezer... out!

[USAFChief]

There’s no denying it, Byron Buxton has had a great season to date

 

I'll certainly deny it.

[Craig Arko]

The answer to this question will most likely come in Sept.-Oct. Let’s hope that corresponds to a high point in the cycle.

[umterp23]

Great season no.  Flashes of great, yes.  So right now Mediocre comes to mind

[bean5302]

Buxton goes 0-4, time for a trip to the IL!
Buxton goes 4-4 with 4 HRs, he's back and his knee is perfect again!

In any case, Buxton will likely always be a streaky hitter because he has pretty weak plate discipline. He doesn't take many walks and his contact rates are pretty poor. Buxton is not and never will be an MVP level player in my opinion. He's a potential perennial All Star talent, though. A 5-6 WAR full season player while his sprint speed and defensive value remains intact.

[High heat]

I believe there is more going on with this injury then Twins letting on.  I dont Think Buck or the Twins want him to sit out months so playing through it is the only option.  I believe it is not only effecting his swing but his approach as well. 

 

I guy who was willing to put the ball in play and beat out hits with his speed, or line balls in the gaps and make singles into doubles.  Now i think he is just selling out for the long ball as self preservation.  

 

Id bet that the week the season ends he goes in for surgery to have his knee scoped.   (what Sano had done earlier in the year) 

[Cody Pirkl]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton goes 0-4, time for a trip to the IL!
Buxton goes 4-4 with 4 HRs, he's back and his knee is perfect again!

In any case, Buxton will likely always be a streaky hitter because he has pretty weak plate discipline.

Streaky yes, but he's doubling down on it by hitting so many fly balls. More line drives would at least give him more positive possibilities for when he makes contact.

[stringer bell]

I think and hope that this is because of the injury. The Buxton we saw on the field was among the best two or three players in the world. The Buxton we've seen has otherworldly power, but isn't a complete hitter. Beyond that, he's only playing outfield part-time and isn't a threat on the base paths.

[BD57]

Buck's doing a Dave Kingman impression.   I'd rather have the line drives, even if that meant he'd only be at 10-15 HR now.

[nicksaviking]

Since the day the team drafted him, he’s tinkered with his approach, swing and mechanics. Many guys couldn’t handle as many changes as he’s made. I feel very comfortable with his bat adjusting as needed. Same as always, I’m really only concerned about his health

[h2oface]

His lows drag him down to a mendoza line type average for the year. Not even hitting around .250 with the great streaks. Very disappointing, Consistentcy and average still count a ton in my book. He is striking out like Sano now.

I guess his "injury" has to be a secret of sorts, for some reason. 

[bighat]

27 minutes ago, h2oface said:

His lows drag him down to a mendoza line type average for the year. Not even hitting around .250 with the great streaks. Very disappointing, Consistentcy and average still count a ton in my book. He is striking out like Sano now.

I guess his "injury" has to be a secret of sorts, for some reason. 

Yeah, this pretty much echoes my thoughts.

Dude's batting .216. Sure the 22 homers are nice - real nice - but hitting .216 is extremely disappointing. Buxton was supposed to be better than Rob Deer last time I checked.

He's not stealing any bases, he's striking out a ton, and he's a 3-true outcomes player.

Do I still love the guy? You bet. And there are positives: he's walking more, he's a bit more patient at the plate.  But he's got to curb the strikeouts and perhaps needs to stop trying to swing for the fences every time up there. He's had some really ugly stat lines and he's been really in a slump for a couple months now.

[mikelink45]

“Durability trumps ability,” Bud Grant.  Buxton is most valuable when he is in CF.  So far he has been in the field 42 games out of 85 - just under half.  He has 22 HRs, he is batting 216 and has only a 291 OPS - is that an offensive star?  I love Buxton when he gives us the entire package, but with his speed and ability did we really expect this level of play?  Glamour weeks and dreadful weeks.  I did expect more on the bases too.  Expectations are sky high, but he has not come close to meeting them for more than half the games and if they can baby him to 100 games this year he will be far short of 100 defensive games.  8 years 511 games started - an average of 63.  

[Shaitan]

Cool, we're back to calling players who play through injuries "coddled" and implying they aren't really hurt.

It's like Joe Mauer all over again.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

Cool, we're back to calling players who play through injuries "coddled" and implying they aren't really hurt.

It's like Joe Mauer all over again.

I preface the entire article by pointing out his chronic knee injury and even say the change he made could be related. The fact of the matter is that a change has been made. 

[Linus]

I don’t think it’s any revelation that Buck is a streaky hitter. There was a stat posted during tonight’s game about his ranking in the last 100 games for extra base hits. He’s in the top 5 in a bunch of categories. Oh and he is the best CF in baseball. 
 

I guess we might want to reassess what our expectations are. 

[Cody Pirkl]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

I don’t think it’s any revelation that Buck is a streaky hitter. There was a stat posted during tonight’s game about his ranking in the last 100 games for extra base hits. He’s in the top 5 in a bunch of categories. Oh and he is the best CF in baseball. 
 

I guess we might want to reassess what our expectations are. 

He's still been good but he's capable of more. There's no reason he should be selling out for power imo, and if that's just his approach from now on he probably doesn't belong in the 2 or 3 spot. Hitting sub .200 and having a sub .300 OBP since the start of May can only be salvaged so much by an extra base hit here and there.

If Miguel Sano were on the stretch Buxton's been on since the first month of the season people would be losing their minds.

[Linus]

19 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

He's still been good but he's capable of more. There's no reason he should be selling out for power imo, and if that's just his approach from now on he probably doesn't belong in the 2 or 3 spot. Hitting sub .200 and having a sub .300 OBP since the start of May can only be salvaged so much by an extra base hit here and there.

If Miguel Sano were on the stretch Buxton's been on since the first month of the season people would be losing their minds.

How do you know what he is capable of?  The Sano comparison is ridiculous. There is more to baseball than hitting. He’s streaky we all know it. Maybe appreciate what he is doing instead of comparing him to some unrealistic set of criteria you have arbitrarily decided upon. 

[h2oface]

38 minutes ago, Linus said:

How do you know what he is capable of?  The Sano comparison is ridiculous. There is more to baseball than hitting. He’s streaky we all know it. Maybe appreciate what he is doing instead of comparing him to some unrealistic set of criteria you have arbitrarily decided upon. 

How does one know what he is capable of? Seriously? We have all seen what he is capable of. Many times. Is it really that unrealistic to think that the guy should/could be performing even half as good as he is capable of at the plate, instead of 1/10 as good in these long stretches? I don't think it is. He is almost hitting at the Mendoza line for average, and that includes about 6 weeks of "the best player in baseball"! That is really really bad to bring those streches down to what it is for the season. 

[TWTwinsFan]

Buck has to be a patient hitter,he cant work the counts,just hit the ball based on what he feels,when he is hot,he smashs the ball,when he is not, basically an automatic out.

[Eephus]

15 hours ago, High heat said:

I believe there is more going on with this injury then Twins letting Now i think he is just selling out for the long ball as self preservation.  

 

Id bet that the week the season ends he goes in for surgery to have his knee scoped.   (what Sano had done earlier in the year) 

This is sorta my theory.  He wouldn't be the first guy to fall in love with hitting home runs at the expense of everything else (Oswaldo Arcia comes to mind). I hope he doesn't get asked to be in the HR derby.  If it hurts to run and he at times looks like a top five HR guy, it could certainly mess up his approach.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Is there a way for Twins Daily to have this article automatically posted twice each season through 2028? It will save much effort all around. Buxton is streaky and injury prone, so might as well get this article posted on auto renew until things change.

[rv78]

A good player, not a great player. #1. You got to be on the field regularly to even be considered great. Yes, one of the best defensive center-fielders in the game..... when he's on the field. If it is only half the time, (this year, even less in others) then he's not making as great of an impact defensively as you might think. #2. He's starting to remind me of Sano. Striking out too much, going for the HR. No. it's not rediculous to compare him to Sano when he starts to hit like Sano. The team got better when Sano went on the IR. Maybe someone should tell Buxton that.

[Cody Pirkl]

8 hours ago, Linus said:

How do you know what he is capable of?  The Sano comparison is ridiculous. There is more to baseball than hitting. He’s streaky we all know it. Maybe appreciate what he is doing instead of comparing him to some unrealistic set of criteria you have arbitrarily decided upon. 

Buxton showed last season what he was capable of when his fly ball rate was 12% lower and line drive rate was almost 5% higher. He was a legitimate MVP candidate before getting injured because he did it all at the plate. This season he has close to as many ABs as all of last year and he's sold out completely for power. As a result his BA is .214 instead of .306 and his OBP is .292 instead of .358. The payoff? 3 more home runs. Doesn't seem worth it to me.

As for the Sano comparison, obviously Buxton does a million things better than Sano across the baseball spectrum. He's a much better player but it's pretty eye opening to see that Sano had a better average and OBP last season than Buxton does this season. For as much as people complain about Sano's "all or nothing" approach, it's worth pointing out that Buxton has been very similar in 2022.

 

[Karbo]

Though I agree he seems to be selling out to hit HR's I don't think it's fair to compare him to the Sano of late. Yes he is striking out at a high rate but at least when he draws a walk regardless if he steals or not, he's a threat on the bases. IMO I can live with a lower avg. when he plays in the field, after all he makes so much of a difference out there. Yes it would sure be nice to see him out there more often, but if he has a bad knee I give him credit for playing thru it. Just look at the w-L record with or without him in the lineup. He makes a difference. If I'm the manager I let him play whenever he can! 

[Shaitan]

10 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I preface the entire article by pointing out his chronic knee injury and even say the change he made could be related. The fact of the matter is that a change has been made. 

This wasn't a response to your post, which I think was done tastefully.

[chinmusic]

17 hours ago, High heat said:

I believe there is more going on with this injury then Twins letting on.

Agreed. 2 stolen bases past the half way point in games played?

Sure, lots of extra base hits, and few walks, valid rationales, but methinks there's more to the story.

[chinmusic]

15 hours ago, BD57 said:

Buck's doing is Dave Kingman impression.

If so, it's pretty bad. More like an Eric Davis impersonation.

[Cody Pirkl]

27 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

Agreed. 2 stolen bases past the half way point in games played?

Sure, lots of extra base hits, and few walks, valid rationales, but methinks there's more to the story.

I think even if healthy he probably wouldn't be racking up steals like we know he can. That being said, there's a decent chance his health has something to do with his change in approach. Selling out to just hit home runs predictably and undeniably makes him a much worse offensive player and I can't believe he'd make an active choice to do so.