Twins Daily Draft Preview: Gavin Cross

[Jamie Cameron]

Gavin Cross is the draft prospect most linked with, and mocked to the Twins. Who is he? Why might the Twins draft him at eight? Why might they go another direction? 

 

As we continue to profile players the Twins might select at number eight overall on July 17th, we look at a consistent staple in industry rankings, Gavin Cross.

Who is He?
Gavin Cross is a 6’3, 210-pound outfielder out of Virginia Tech University. Across five major industry sources, his ranking on big boards only ranges from the number eight overall player to the number ten overall player, speaking to the consensus around his tools and performance. Cross will be 21 years old on draft day.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
Predicting the MLB draft is one of the most challenging and foolish things a person can do. However, if I was a betting man and I had to pick one player the Twins are ‘most likely’ to take at number eight overall, it would be Cross.

Cross is a left-handed corner outfielder who does everything well. While Twins fans may be tired of this profile, high-floor college bats are certainly a type that this front office targets in early rounds. As a college junior in 2022, Cross clubbed 17 home runs, cut his strikeout rate by 6% and increased his walk rate by 4% while playing excellent defense in center field. 

Cross will likely eventually be a corner outfielder but will play strong defense with a good arm and good range. He projects for plus (60-grade power) and a plus hit tool if he can continue his improvements in controlling the strike zone. He consistently produced some of the most consistently high exit velocities in the country in 2022, a trend across recent Twins draft picks. Cross is virtually a lock to go in the first 12 picks on July 17th. If the Twins take him, they’ll be getting one of the most consistently evaluated players in the draft.

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
Cross has exercised some of the concerns about his approach at the plate with a 10% positive swing in his combined BB% and K% in 2022, an impressive feat in a power five conference. The Twins selection of Cross in many mock drafts is predicated on all of the top seven consensus players being off the board by the time they pick. History tells us that there will be some surprises early in the first round. If one of the elite prep bats (Jones, Johnson etc.) fell to the Twins, or another college hitter such as Kevin Parada or Brooks Lee, they would undoubtedly warrant consideration. Make no mistake, if the Twins take Cross, you should be excited, he’s a terrific, well-rounded prospect.

What are your thoughts on the Twins drafting Gavin Cross? Do you think he’s a good fit for Minnesota? Share your thoughts in the comments.

 

 

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[chpettit19]

Cross feels like his potential is the Kepler we all wish we had. Above average to elite defender in a corner with an above average bat. If that's the player I get at 8 I'd be pretty happy. Obviously, the hope is for an up the middle star, but a Kepler who actually deserves to hit in the top 6 in a playoff lineup is a really nice get from a first round pick.

[MN_ExPat]

"He consistently produced some of the most consistently high exit velocities in the country in 2022, a trend across recent Twins draft picks. Cross is virtually a lock to go in the first 12 picks on July 17th. If the Twins take him, they’ll be getting one of the most consistently evaluated players in the draft."

So....... you're saying he's consistent??   

[RJA]

Cross is definitely worth a look at 8. One should never put too much weight on “a friend’s” evaluation, but the guy I know who teaches at VT and was a college player says he is a great prospect—good to great natural power, strong arm, runs well for bigger guy, good defensively, and hard worker who has improved each year. But, he does have some work to do on breaking balls, though he is improving his pitch recognition.  He said he is similar to Larnach with a smooth left handed swing. As his observations reflect similar thoughts from BA, Law, etc., I suspect you are right and he is probably the most consistently graded prospects. The question is for the Twins, do the need another Larnach?  He is a good option. Unlike Berry, he has defensive chops though his bat is likely not quite as good. 

[prouster]

I’m hoping they take someone up the middle, preferably a catcher, shortstop, or pitcher. If Johnson or Collier are there at 8 (one of them might be, both won’t), then Falvey has to go running to the podium. If the top infielders and Parada are all gone, then I hope they take either Neto or one of the pitchers coming off injury. Cross would be a reasonable pick, but I think there’s more upside at some higher value positions that should still be there. With Berry, my concern is that the bat doesn’t develop as hoped and he becomes Seth Beer—a DH that can’t H. 

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Cross feels like his potential is the Kepler we all wish we had. Above average to elite defender in a corner with an above average bat. If that's the player I get at 8 I'd be pretty happy. Obviously, the hope is for an up the middle star, but a Kepler who actually deserves to hit in the top 6 in a playoff lineup is a really nice get from a first round pick.

I was going to say Larnach with better wheels, but I like your analogy as well.

The more I've read and heard about Cross the more I like him. You can never have enough good players and you try not to draft solely for need. Therefore, I'm not against Cross as being "redundant" at all. I think he'd be a fine pick.

But I'm still holding out some small hope for Parada or Collier. But I'm not gonna be disappointed if it's Cross.

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I was going to say Larnach with better wheels, but I like your analogy as well.

The more I've read and heard about Cross the more I like him. You can never have enough good players and you try not to draft solely for need. Therefore, I'm not against Cross as being "redundant" at all. I think he'd be a fine pick.

But I'm still holding out some small hope for Parada or Collier. But I'm not gonna be disappointed if it's Cross.

My hope is definitely that one of the top 7 falls. It feels like everyone has pretty much the same top 7 in some order and they're a step ahead of the next handful of prospects, which is a bummer for the Twins being at 8. But baseball draft is weird with bonus pools and all that so there's a chance one of the top 7 fall. But I also wouldn't be disappointed if it's Cross. He looks like a very solid pick.

[Ryan_K]

He's fine but not exciting. I know from a probability pov a Michael Cuddyer career is good, but would love upside like how Corey Seagee fell to Dodgers at 8 or 9 back in the 2012 draft. 

[nova_twins]

*exorcised

[SarasotaBill]

He had the 4th highest OPS on his team. That doesn't scream elite.

ESPN draft guy mentioned that half of MLB aces (his rating) have had TJ surgery. If Lesko was top 5 before TJ then he deserves top 5 now. He's not Kohl Stewart. He's been called the best HS pitching prospect in the last decade. He loses a year of development but he has seven years to get to MLB.

Twins should pick from top 7 hitters and Lesko. 

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

"Bat-first corner position player" definitely isn't an exciting profile to me, but the information available about Cross suggests that he's a high-end version of that profile (relative to the uncertainty of any draft prospect, at least.) And the limitations of guys like Sabato and Rooker are one reason some Twins fans are tired of this player type, but you're likely to get a better version of that type at pick 8 than at a pick in the high 20s or 30s.
 

On 7/8/2022 at 3:39 PM, chpettit19 said:

My hope is definitely that one of the top 7 falls. It feels like everyone has pretty much the same top 7 in some order and they're a step ahead of the next handful of prospects, which is a bummer for the Twins being at 8. But baseball draft is weird with bonus pools and all that so there's a chance one of the top 7 fall.

The "draft with a clear top [x] and the Twins draft [x+1]" made me think of the draft when the Twins drafted Kohl Stewart 4th after Mark Appel, Kris Bryant, and Jon Gray went 1-2-3...
Which says something about variance in outcomes for even the highest-rated players. Gray seemed to be perceived as a step away from putting it together for several years, and now is having a nice season to begin his first free-agent deal; Bryant seems like he may have peaked early; Appel just debuted.

[Jamie Cameron]

On 7/8/2022 at 9:30 AM, chpettit19 said:

Cross feels like his potential is the Kepler we all wish we had. Above average to elite defender in a corner with an above average bat. If that's the player I get at 8 I'd be pretty happy. Obviously, the hope is for an up the middle star, but a Kepler who actually deserves to hit in the top 6 in a playoff lineup is a really nice get from a first round pick.

Overall, hard agree on this. I'm encouraged by how consistently he is evaluated also. Number 8 overall on the Consensus Big Board, which drops on Thursday.

[MN_ExPat]

On 7/9/2022 at 7:47 AM, SarasotaBill said:

He had the 4th highest OPS on his team. That doesn't scream elite.

ESPN draft guy mentioned that half of MLB aces (his rating) have had TJ surgery. If Lesko was top 5 before TJ then he deserves top 5 now. He's not Kohl Stewart. He's been called the best HS pitching prospect in the last decade. He loses a year of development but he has seven years to get to MLB.

Twins should pick from top 7 hitters and Lesko. 

 

I will go on record and happily eat crow if I am wrong and I'm not saying the kid doesn't have some potential... but, Lesko is overrated (having seen video of Lesko and Petty.... I would take Petty over Lesko every time).

He comes from a Charter HS program that has a HUGE amount of money but plays in one of the weakest Regions (conferences) in Georgia.  Yes, he did display his physical talents at various showcases and he passes the eyeball test (height/weight), but his "stats" at those were "good", not great, just good.

Because of all of this, he's going to get A LOT of leash and chances to prove he can make it (and I don't begrudge him those chances).  However, we should all take his "successes" to date with a grain of salt.  A big fastball doesn't equate automatic future All-Star.

Does this mean a team shouldn't draft him? No, he's got talent.  Just not at as much as many think.