Ranking the Twins' Top 5 Hitters By Level of Trust

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's offense has been one of its strengths this season, but even the best hitters go through slumps. Who do you trust the most in the Twins line-up?

 

Last week, I named the team's most reliable relievers, which can be an exercise in futility. Relief pitchers deal in small sample sizes, and the Twins' relief core has been subpar for most of the season. Luckily, the offense continues to help the team stay in first place. Here are the hitters with the highest level of trust as the season approaches the All-Star Game. 

5. Max Kepler
Since May 1: 97 wRC+, 065 fWAR
Kepler is having a resurgent offensive season after struggling to repeat his output from the 2019 campaign. His OPS+ is over 110 for the second time in his career as he has been an above-average hitter against right and left-handed pitchers this season. Other younger hitters like Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda are in the conversation for the final spot on this list. Still, Kepler has compiled solid numbers over the whole season that earned him a higher level of trust.  

4. Jorge Polanco
Since May 1: 125 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Polanco recently returned from his first career stint on the IL, and he hasn't missed a beat. There are clearly better hitters on the Twins roster, but he continues to be a solid contributor. In previous seasons, Polanco has been the team's best offensive player, but his movement down this list points to the team's offensive strength. To stay in first, the Twins need contributions up-and-down the line-up, and Polanco has proven to be a tough out no matter where the Twins use him.

3. Byron Buxton
Since May 1: 129 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
The Twins are better with Buxton in the line-up, and that's one of the main reasons the team continues to monitor his playing time. Minnesota needs Buxton healthy and performing at the end of the season when the games are even more critical. He's already set a career-high in home runs as he is on pace to hit over 40 homers. Buxton has been a streaky hitter throughout the season, and that's one of the only reasons he ranks third on this list. 

2. Luis Arraez
Since May 1: 161 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Arraez has been a joy to watch at the plate for the entirety of the season. He leads the American League in batting average and on-base percentage, and national outlets have taken notice of his performance. Injuries forced the team to shift him to a new defensive position, and he continued to hit at a high level. MLB's offensive environment has been down this season, but Arraez continues to be a throwback to a bygone era. He has a chance to make his first All-Star team, and he arguably has been the team's first-half MVP. 

1. Carlos Correa
Since May 1: 161 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
This is why the Twins agreed to give Correa a record average annual salary for an infielder. His slow start is long forgotten as he powers the Twins' offense through some of the most challenging parts of the schedule. Even in his struggles, there were signs of his swing breaking out, and he has shown what he can mean to the middle of a line-up. There is no arguing that Correa is one of baseball's best hitters at a premium defensive position. Fans are aware of his option to opt-out at the season's end, but people should still be able to enjoy what he is bringing to the 2022 Twins. 

How would you rank the team's hitters? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

 

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[Craig Arko]

I’d definitely swap Arraez and Correa; otherwise concur with the youngsters pushing Kepler. Also, Celestino, Urshela, and Sanchez have exceeded expectations. 

[Major League Ready]

Arraez / Correa / Buxton / Kirilloff / Polanco 

[Mark G]

Definitely got 1 and 2 out of order.  If Arraez is not number one, this article is pointless.  As for #3, the only reason Buck is in the conversation is his home run total.  If there are 2 outs and the tying run on base in the bottom of the ninth, Buck is not on my list of guys I hope are up next.  If he doesn't hit a HR, he ends the game, and the HR chances are not nearly as good as others chances of a hit.  ( on the other hand, if we are one down and no one on, I would want him up on the chance for the HR) And I would take Kirilloff over Kepler right now; would not have for the first 2 - 21/2 months, but I would now.  Otherwise, you are dead on.    

[Nashvilletwin]

Arraez is hitting 0.400 with RISP. There is someone more “trusted” than that?

[MABB1959]

I don't count on Kepler at all.  

[Whitey333]

How you could put Correa ahead of Arraez is strange.  Arraez should be 1 then maybe Correa 2.  Buxton at 3 is too high.  He hits home runs like 22 at this point.  His RBI is low for that many Homer's.  But his part time status and his .227 average moves him down the list.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

How you could put Correa ahead of Arraez is strange.  Arraez should be 1 then maybe Correa 2.  Buxton at 3 is too high.  He hits home runs like 22 at this point.  His RBI is low for that many Homer's.  But his part time status and his .227 average moves him down the list.

Game is tied 2-2 in the 8th or 9th with two outs and nobody on.  Who do you want to take the AB instead of Buxton?  Runner in scoring position, I would take Arraez / Correa or Kirilloff but the scenarios in which we are looking to trust someone are not all the same.

[chpettit19]

Guess it's a little about what we're trusting them to do. Need a big HR late? Buxton is #1. Need a big hit late? Buxton is not in my top 3.

I'm with the majority in the comments here that I don't have any idea how you can't list Arraez #1. Is that just a ploy to get the comment section going? Cuz he's clearly #1 and I don't think it's particularly close. Correa would be a very clear #2 to me. I'd probably go Polanco 3, Buxton 4, and Kirilloff 5.

[mikelink45]

Where does Miranda rank now?  Like all the other posters I want Arraez first. Buxton does belong here. It's hard for me to rank 4 or 5. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Arraez, Correa, Polanco, Buxton, Kiriloff.  Like most on this post feel, this order is to get a key hit under pressure.  If a HR is needed, Buck moves up the list obviously.

[dukie034]

Kirilloff needs to be in the top 5. He gains confidence every at bat. Once he learns to lay off the off speed pitches down and in, he’s going to take off. 

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, dukie034 said:

Kirilloff needs to be in the top 5. He gains confidence every at bat. Once he learns to lay off the off speed pitches down and in, he’s going to take off. 

He has major trouble with lefties, so not gonna happen.

[umterp23]

meaningless to show buxton over 162 game set of numbers, as that is about 2 years worth of baseball from injury prone years.  Now if he had a Trout type of year playing 150+, then that would warrant listing those numbers.  Buxton maybe at 5 on this list nothing higher. I could be wrong but I don't think he has one hit as a PH this year, not the end all measure but it does reflect trust or being clutch.  

[RpR]

The word trust is a misnomer, expectations is what players try to perform up to, for coaches and fans.

[Coach Wheels]

No way I'd have Kepler in the top 5, Urshela or Kiriloff get that spot for me. Buxton at 3 is probably accurate, Correa is easy to put #1 based on his career

[tony&rodney]

Agree with the top five although I love how Kirilloff, Miranda, and Urshela are contributing. I would put the order a bit different: Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Buxton, and Kepler. Sanchez and Jeffers can do damage from time to time and everyone has to be pretty pleased with the contributions of Celestino, Gordon, and Garlick.