Twins Daily Draft Preview: Jacob Berry

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you've been following mock drafts at all over the last couple of the months, Jacob Berry, a switch-hitter from LSU, is a name that you're familiar with. Let's take a look at both why the Twins might draft him and also why they might not.

 

 

Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft on July 17. 

Who is He?
Jacob Berry is a plus hitter and a near-consensus Top 8 prospect in this draft. In their most-recent rankings, MLB.com, Baseball America, and ESPN all have Berry ranked #7. The lone, biggest dissenter is The Athletic's Keith Law, who ranks Berry all the way down at 27.  We'll get into why there is a big discrepancy a little later.

Berry started his collegiate career at Arizona and finished it at LSU. As a college hitter, Berry put up a .360/.450/.655 (1.105) slash line over two years, hitting 32 home runs. In this past year at LSU, he walked 27 times compared to only 22 strikeouts. 

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
The Twins love hitters with power.

Plain and simple, they have a history of taking guys with a valuable bat. In 2020, the Twins took Aaron Sabato who was considered to have some of the biggest raw power in the entire draft. Two years prior, it was Trevor Larnach who flew into the first round after showing off his power at Oregon State. In 2016, it was Alex Kirilloff who was a prospect with exciting power potential.

If you sense a pattern, you're not alone: In even years, the Twins are going to take a college hitter with a power profile. Jacob Berry is the draft prospect who fits that profile better than anyone. And if the Twins board is anything like that of the national pundits, it makes perfect sense.

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
This is where it gets interesting for two really good reasons.

First, unlike the three hitters mentioned above, Berry does not have an obvious future home defensively. He's been tried at third base and many aren't convinced he can stick there. He's spent time at both outfield corners and there are concerns that he can even stick there. That leaves first base and DH (and the reason that Law is so low on him). 

It's relatively unheard of to draft a first-base only player in the Top 10. And given the lack of success that Sabato has had, is it possible that the Twins don't want to take the risk of missing on a hitter again?

The second reason that the Twins don't draft him is - despite their affinity to draft college hitters - they haven't gone this route with any of their recent Top 13 picks

• 2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall)
• 2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall)
• 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall)
• 2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall)
• 2013: Kohl Stewart (4th overall)
• 2012: Byron Buxton (2nd overall)

With the exception of Tyler Jay, all of those selections were prep players, and besides Stewart, they were all prep hitters. Taking a college hitter with a low floor doesn't jive with their habit of taking big swings with higher picks.

What do you think? Would you take Berry if you were making the call?

 

 

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[RJA]

Good summary of the pros and cons on Berry. I wouldn’t draft him as a bat only player (especially this high) UNLESS the Twins are confident they can make him at least an average defender at some position. Allocating one roster spot to a player who can only DH makes no sense as it makes it difficult to rotate players through the position to give them a day off, when coming back from injury, etc. It effectively makes your roster one man smaller. At 8, I would look for the best high potential player with great tools left on the board. 

[Dman]

Berry has a lot of things I like in a prospect.  Plus power, plus hit tool, good plate discipline.  To top it off he is a switch hitter that hits pretty evenly from both sides so he always has a slight advantage at the plate.  So as a hitter he is a draft dream.

The problem is he brings nothing defensively and if he is stuck at mainly DH he better come with an elite bat.  On one side you get everything you want in an offensive profile on the other side you get stuck with a player that will never be plus defensively and could be an obstacle to move around in the DH spot.

If the bat does turn out elite though you have a feared difference maker bat on your team. A player that should have a high OBP and OPS.  If the bat is just average, however, you have nothing because there is no value to be had on the defensive side.  The Twins would be risking everything on the bat if they make that pick.  If it were me picking that high I would rather go with Neto and even Young.  Both play up the middle and have good bats they just lack Berry's power. 

There is a lot of value in players that play good defense and can still hit.  Arraez is a good example that power isn't everything.  At 8 I think the Twins should be grabbing a player that can play both ways so for me Berry would be a no.

[DocBauer]

While he was a late bloomer development wise, and not a switch hitter, if you could draft Nelson Cruz out of college with the 8th pick, you'd do it. It would be foolish not to, regardless of his being strictly a DH. (Though to be fair Cruz did play OF initially). 

Drafting an almost position-less player like Berry, you are basically saying you believe you are drafting a Cruz type bat, hit/power/OB.

That's an awful lot of expectation to pick a  1B/DH only at 8. I just wouldn't do it. Catcher or best bat actual position player available.

Why is it I keep liking Neto more and more even though he's ranked out if the tip 10? Good chance there is a surprise in the first 7 selections and someone falls to us at 8. But, a 2B only position player with a bat, or a toolsy OF with questionable hit tool frustrates me. I want the best, most balanced player I can get at 8.  Starting to wonder if someone outside of the top 10 isn't the safest and smartest selection.

[ashbury]

If we were drafting at 20 and a player like this fell to us, he'd be an interesting bat-only gamble.  A DH has to profile as a .900 OPS type, like peak Nelson Cruz, to be of any eventual value.  At #8, I'd rather not.

/ Edit - ha, failed to read all the way through the thread, and DocBauer hit the points I wanted to make.

[Doctor Gast]

I hope not. For # 8 I'd like a catcher,CF or SS .

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I hope not. For # 8 I'd like a catcher,CF or SS .

Joe Mauer, though I loved him dearly, cured me of ever wanting to draft a catcher in the high first round.  A good catcher generally contributes in only 2/3 of a team's games. And if he's better than that, so that his bat demands a DH slot on his resting days, then you deprive yourself of the ability to go get a Nelson Cruz type, meaning your DH isn't that great on the day your catcher is actually catching, also possibly being tempted to carry a third catcher to cover when he's DHing, and otherwise generally putting yourself in a continual strain on roster management even during his peak years.

I'll get my starting catchers from supplemental/compensation* first-round picks, or rounds 2 and 3, thank you very much.  If one then overachieves and you have a stud at catcher after all, it's a problem you can live with, assuming you got a stud at some other position with a higher pick first.

Up the middle is the way to go, I agree, though.  Even at that, if those start to look overly picked-over, by #8 you do have to be pragmatic.  I wish the pitching crop were more promising, but it's just not.

 

* they keep changing the exact rules

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Joe Mauer, though I loved him dearly, cured me of ever wanting to draft a catcher in the high first round.  A good catcher generally contributes in only 2/3 of a team's games. And if he's better than that, so that his bat demands a DH slot on his resting days, then you deprive yourself of the ability to go get a Nelson Cruz type, meaning your DH isn't that great on the day your catcher is actually catching, also possibly being tempted to carry a third catcher to cover when he's DHing, and otherwise generally putting yourself in a continual strain on roster management even during his peak years.

I'll get my starting catchers from supplemental/compensation* first-round picks, or rounds 2 and 3, thank you very much.  If one then overachieves and you have a stud at catcher after all, it's a problem you can live with, assuming you got a stud at some other position with a higher pick first.

Up the middle is the way to go, I agree, though.  Even at that, if those start to look overly picked-over, by #8 you do have to be pragmatic.  I wish the pitching crop were more promising, but it's just not.

 

* they keep changing the exact rules

If a Mauer type was available for #8 this year draft pick, I'd gobble him up so fast. Just because it's such a demanding position where 1 person alone can't man there 100% of the time. Don't underestimate the value of a top rate catcher and at the same time don't overestimate the value of a bat 1st player. With the new rules of non contact at home the risk of pursuing a top rate catcher is much less.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

While he was a late bloomer development wise, and not a switch hitter, if you could draft Nelson Cruz out of college with the 8th pick, you'd do it. It would be foolish not to, regardless of his being strictly a DH. (Though to be fair Cruz did play OF initially). 

Drafting an almost position-less player like Berry, you are basically saying you believe you are drafting a Cruz type bat, hit/power/OB.

That's an awful lot of expectation to pick a  1B/DH only at 8. I just wouldn't do it. Catcher or best bat actual position player available.

Why is it I keep liking Neto more and more even though he's ranked out if the tip 10? Good chance there is a surprise in the first 7 selections and someone falls to us at 8. But, a 2B only position player with a bat, or a toolsy OF with questionable hit tool frustrates me. I want the best, most balanced player I can get at 8.  Starting to wonder if someone outside of the top 10 isn't the safest and smartest selection.

Nelson Cruz was not good until his late 20s..... I'm not sure drafting him and getting nothing because he was on another team is a good example.  

Do we really think he's going to be an elite bat? Because if he's not, he's a negative on defense.  That's a huge gamble. 

I am not a fan of bat only players, like Sabato at all.  It's just too much risk.  

I'm not a fan of this idea,  in terms of process.  Got no idea in terms of outcomes.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Joe Mauer, though I loved him dearly, cured me of ever wanting to draft a catcher in the high first round.  A good catcher generally contributes in only 2/3 of a team's games. And if he's better than that, so that his bat demands a DH slot on his resting days, then you deprive yourself of the ability to go get a Nelson Cruz type, meaning your DH isn't that great on the day your catcher is actually catching, also possibly being tempted to carry a third catcher to cover when he's DHing, and otherwise generally putting yourself in a continual strain on roster management even during his peak years.

I'll get my starting catchers from supplemental/compensation* first-round picks, or rounds 2 and 3, thank you very much.  If one then overachieves and you have a stud at catcher after all, it's a problem you can live with, assuming you got a stud at some other position with a higher pick first.

Up the middle is the way to go, I agree, though.  Even at that, if those start to look overly picked-over, by #8 you do have to be pragmatic.  I wish the pitching crop were more promising, but it's just not.

 

* they keep changing the exact rules

You can't be serious.  He provided more value at catcher than most others.  He's a hall of fame player.  Baltimore is thrilled with their new catcher.  

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can't be serious.  He provided more value at catcher than most others.  He's a hall of fame player.  Baltimore is thrilled with their new catcher.  

Of course with hindsight you take the Hall of Famer, and put up with any of the "negatives" I listed.

I'm saying that without hindsight, I gamble on picking the Hall of Famer who plays CF or SS or SP, if I possibly can, because they come with fewer headaches.

#assetmanagement.

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can't be serious.  He provided more value at catcher than most others.  He's a hall of fame player.  Baltimore is thrilled with their new catcher.  

While I’m not as steadfast as Ashbury, I agree about not taking a catcher just because you need a catcher.

A HOF catcher is a huge advantage, but one of those get drafted once a decade, maybe even longer. But if you don’t get one of those rare gems, you’re not getting much of an advantage. The difference between an average catcher and a poor catcher is pretty minimal. Partly because of the reduced number of games, and partly because except for those few HOFer’s they're just not great hitters.

[Tim]

Berry's exit velo has been a concern and he's not really even playable at this point in the field. Hoping this is not direction at 8.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nelson Cruz was not good until his late 20s..... I'm not sure drafting him and getting nothing because he was on another team is a good example.  

Do we really think he's going to be an elite bat? Because if he's not, he's a negative on defense.  That's a huge gamble. 

I am not a fan of bat only players, like Sabato at all.  It's just too much risk.  

I'm not a fan of this idea,  in terms of process.  Got no idea in terms of outcomes.  

Agreed. Which is why I make the comparison IF you knew/really felt that was the kind of bat you were drafting. You know, if your crystal ball was working. Otherwise, as stated, I'm passing on Berry.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

All this talk about catching, I'd keep my eye on Vanderbilt C/1B Dominic Keegan. He's got the qualities in a hitter the Twins like and the Twins typically believe they can develop the defensive side. He could definitely be an option at 48 or 68.

[old nurse]

Unluckily there is not a Joe Mauser or Buster Posey in this draft,

We’ll, edit and laugh https://throughthefencebaseball.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-brooks-lee-druw-jones/

[old nurse]

HR/9 is down .39 from 2019,  K/9 is slightly down. I don’t think the analytics department would miss that trend. The first few drafts under Sean Johnson as directed by Falvey and or Levine they went for bat over glove. It did not work. If this deadened ball continues, they need to have defense. I think they realized that. They moved Polanco. They have a couple of weak fielding hitters now. Arraez and Miranda are not going anywhere Perhaps the old school draft up the middle and move them out if you have to was the correct way to do the draft. 

[jimbo92107]

Woof, I just read a few blurbs about the top 15 guys in the draft. Felt my enthusiasm deflating like a popped tire. The only one that sounds like a sure bet is Druw Jones. The rest sound like good to middling prospects, with no guarantees among them. 

As for Jacob Berry, I'm not sure what's the problem. Is he turtle slow? Hands of stone? Is there some reason he could not learn to man the hot corner if he worked with demon intensity, day after day for a couple years? Twins have drafted project fielders before, including Cory Koske and Justin Morneau. They're grooming a guy (Miranda) right now that needs a lot of work to be average at 3B. They draft the bat, then teach the glove.

My only fear is, as mentioned in these comments, that they'll wind up with another Aaron Sabato. However, it sounds like Berry is already a pretty refined hitter. Okay, draft him, unless one of those pitchers falls to their spot. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, ashbury said:

Of course with hindsight you take the Hall of Famer, and put up with any of the "negatives" I listed.

I'm saying that without hindsight, I gamble on picking the Hall of Famer who plays CF or SS or SP, if I possibly can, because they come with fewer headaches.

#assetmanagement.

 

I misunderstood you.  While I don't agree completely, my bias is also SS types..... so I understand your hesitancy with a catcher.