First Half Surprises, Second Half Predictions

[Game7-91]

It is hard to believe, but here we are, at the 1/2-way point of the 2022 season, our hometown hero's having completed 82 games of the schedule. So it is mid-season review time.

What has most surprised you about the Twins' season so far?

Whether its the standings, W-L record, break-out players, disappointing performances, the AL Central, "dead-ball" baseball...whatever. What are the most surprising or unexpected things from the 1st half of 2022? 

   For me, its that our guys are in first place. I was not bullish on this season back in late March, and so have been happily eating a healthy dose of crow. I love to see the emerging future core beginning to establish themselves. I have been surprised mostly by the demise of Detroit. I thought they would be competitive. Our guys have benefited from their downfall. Too bad, so sad....we have been there on our end. Somebody else's turn for a change.

Finally, any predictions for the 2nd half? Division winners, playoffs, player performances, other teams?

   Here's mine: I dont want to be all Debbie Downer here, but reality is what it is: The White Sox have 7 games in the 2nd half against high quality opponents: 4 against Houston, 3 San Diego. They are done with the AL East. Clev has 18, including 12 against AL east other than Baltimore. Twins have 22, including 11 against AL East other than Baltimore. It all sets up as a challenging 2nd half of the season to maintain leadership of the AL Central. Stranger things have happened, but my gut says the White Sox are well positioned to make a run in spite of themselves. They are getting some of their guys back from IL. And given neither the Twins or Clev have been able to create meaningful distance, I give better odds to the Sox defaulting into the division title than our guys or Cleveland.

  No matter how it turns out, it should be exciting, and especially so for the great crop of young talent our team is developing for 2023 and beyond.

  What are your surprises and predictions as we enter the 2nd half of 2022?

                             

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m surprised about how effective the rotation has been in a very constrained capacity. Coaching and the FO have done a great job of not allowing the rotation to blow up.

The flip side of course is the FO hasn’t delivered the bullpen help needed to balance the work load.

I think that Levine will swing a trade for a very good setup man (maybe two), and promote a starter from triple A, to swing man, and the Twins will be able to hold on to more leads.

While the Twins have a tough July/August relative to the rest of the central, I think they’ll hold going into September and retake the lead at the end of the season.

[wsnydes]

I've been surprised by how inconsistent the bats have been.  I think the bullpen is a much bigger priority, but the bats haven't done their job.  If they were, they'd be covering up some of the bullpen woes and the team would be in a much better position.  As it is, the pitching sits on a razors edge most of the time and that exposes the bullpen even more.  That said, the pitching has largely done it's job.  Holding opponents to 3 runs as often as they do yet still losing is frustrating.

Speaking of the bullpen, I didn't have high expectations for them in the first place but they've been worse than I expected as well.  Injuries have played into that, but I'm not sure that changes things for me much.

I'm pleasantly surprised by the rotation and it's ability to keep the team in games despite the inability of the bats to score runs.  

Before the season, I predicted that the youth would determine how far the team goes.  I still think that's holding true and believe it still will in the 2nd half.  Perhaps even moreso given the injury and ineffectiveness situations.

I still think this team is good enough to win the division, but not much else without big upgrades in the bullpen and at least one bat.

[umterp23]

Frustrating but can be mendable part has obviously been the bullpen and late game collapses.  1.o game lead at halfway point and if my math is correct if they won those games, they would have a 10.0 game lead in the Central. You manage with what you have but bullpen by committee when the starters last at best 5 innings a game will bite us in the end.  Would like to see high end RP's and may another starter but really need 2 RP's.  Wouldn't mind a high volume bat for OF, really need a righty out there. Buxton is nice but not the MVP candidate folks wanted to scream about in April/May.

Trade bait could be Kepler, Sano and some MiLB prospects 

Twins win the division by 2 games over Guardians.  White Sox finish 3rd 5 games back.

[Vanimal46]

Lots of positive surprises so far. Buxton’s health and performance. His scheduled off days drive a lot of people crazy, but he’s on pace to play 120 games. I think everyone would have been thrilled to hear that in the winter. Luis Arraez batting so well that he’s forced the issue to play every day. Sonny Gray has been a fantastic trade acquisition. Chris Archer has also held things together better than I ever expected. Finally, Carlos Correa has been worth the money with his production and leadership. 

It’s not all sunshine and roses though. My disappointing surprises is seeing how feast or famine the lineup is. The lack of progression in the pitching pipeline is also disappointing. All winter we heard the phrase “if you want 2 good MLB pitchers, you need 10 prospects.” Yet we’re still relying on veterans to patch the bullpen and back end of the rotation. 

[Vanimal46]

Re: White Sox. They can’t get out of their own way this year. They’re living the 2018 Twins season. The talent is there but something is off with them. I will make a bold prediction that they wave the white flag and trade away MLB players to restock the farm system. 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Re: White Sox.   They still really scare me.  If they get healthy, it's their division to lose.  They have a ton of games left with the Twins.   Also, they have a cupcake schedule the second half.  I really want to be wrong about this.

[se7799]

I am overall surprised by the lack of belief in this team.  The sky is the limit.  We are in a awsome pennant race with a young team.  The excitement has been awsome.  I am predicting success!

[wabene]

16 minutes ago, se7799 said:

I am overall surprised by the lack of belief in this team.  The sky is the limit.  We are in a awsome pennant race with a young team.  The excitement has been awsome.  I am predicting success!

I love the optimism and share it. I am however more surprised by the team's success than the lack of belief. Reading this site leading up to the season cemented that for me. 

The recent meltdowns have tempered my surprise as I figured we would be in the hunt not running away with it. With even middling bullpen performance we could be well ahead though. 

 

[umterp23]

White Sox are a mess and with a La Russa who can barely stay upright and looks like the game has passed in by, I don't see them making a push to win the division.  He is 77 years old and looks like he is 90.  Talk about bad baseball, how do you run into a triple play when the ball is front of you, Classic T-Ball baseball by the Sox

[Squirrel]

56 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

White Sox are a mess and with a La Russa who can barely stay upright and looks like the game has passed in by, I don't see them making a push to win the division.  He is 77 years old and looks like he is 90.  Talk about bad baseball, how do you run into a triple play when the ball is front of you, Classic T-Ball baseball by the Sox

Watching the Sox post-game show last night ... wow, LaRussa seemed really out of it. I mean, REALLY out of it. I thought he was drunk or maybe Alzheimer's or dementia setting in. Seriously. He was really bad and his face looked completely blank, eyes unfocussed. I was really shocked at just how terrible he seemed. And not in a laughing way, in a very sad way. It was difficult to listen to and to follow.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm surprised by the consistently good starting pitching,  the number of meltdowns by the bullpen, and the inconsistent offense.  

I felt this team would win in the mid 80s.... and they are ahead of that.... and feel they will win around 90 to 93. 

[lukeduke1980]

A surprise to me is the anguish of trusting the process.  As a whole its the best pitching staff in some time, including some homegrown in Winder, Jax, Duran.  Its sometimes just agonizing to see a starter that's dealing be pulled after 4.  But, 1st place.

[Muppet]

Predictions for 2nd half:

Polonco starts to look like an MVP; Buxton does NOT get injured; Duffy is back; Sano comes back and is traded for a mid level AA pitching prospect so someone like the Reds who hope they can entice him to a couple more years and squeeze 15 HRs/year out of him. Pagan gets injured and, miraculously, the pitching starts to figure itself out. One of Miranda, Larnach, or Kirilloff goes on a tear (the other two continue to be hit or miss). 

Twins are a much better team in September than they are in July. They make the world series. And by a dramatic and unforeseen act of fate, Jake Cave is the Twins' 2022 world series MVP. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

On 7/3/2022 at 9:28 PM, Game7-91 said:

What are your surprises and predictions as we enter the 2nd half of 2022?

Surprised at how well Archer and Bundy are doing and Sanchez's defense.  He is much better than I thought.  I am also surprised at the inconsistency of the offense.  We have all the tools in the lineup but lack consistency at producing runs.

My prediction is that the Arraez wins the batting title, Correa and Buxton get a gold glove, the Twins win the division AND finally break that post season losing streak.

[Game7-91]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Watching the Sox post-game show last night ... wow, LaRussa seemed really out of it. I mean, REALLY out of it.

Didnt see it but have had similar wonderings. The 7th inning base running fiasco, while still ultimately on the players, does reflect poorly on their coaching and prep. Given their scheduling advantages, they would normally be in prime position to make a run. But given what we've seen of them, the Sox play a lot like their manager looks, and that doesn't bode well for them.

[KirbyDome89]

On 7/4/2022 at 12:21 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Lots of positive surprises so far. Buxton’s health and performance. His scheduled off days drive a lot of people crazy, but he’s on pace to play 120 games. I think everyone would have been thrilled to hear that in the winter. Luis Arraez batting so well that he’s forced the issue to play every day. Sonny Gray has been a fantastic trade acquisition. Chris Archer has also held things together better than I ever expected. Finally, Carlos Correa has been worth the money with his production and leadership. 

It’s not all sunshine and roses though. My disappointing surprises is seeing how feast or famine the lineup is. The lack of progression in the pitching pipeline is also disappointing. All winter we heard the phrase “if you want 2 good MLB pitchers, you need 10 prospects.” Yet we’re still relying on veterans to patch the bullpen and back end of the rotation. 

I'm pleasantly surprised with the starting pitching, but the bolded is quietly becoming a concern. Injuries and ineffectiveness are going to happen, and there's half a season left, but Ryan can't be the only reliable young starter entering next year.

On 7/4/2022 at 12:31 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Re: White Sox. They can’t get out of their own way this year. They’re living the 2018 Twins season. The talent is there but something is off with them. I will make a bold prediction that they wave the white flag and trade away MLB players to restock the farm system. 

The Sox are a total clown show, from the top down, and I don't know why anybody expects them to flip a switch and suddenly become something else. I wish they'd throw in the towel and essentially pave the way for the Twins to own the division for the next few years, but they're too stubborn to reset like that. Honestly, watching them squirm in baseball purgatory is probably more entertaining anyway. 

[bunsen82]

The surprise on this team has been the starting pitching.  That we had essentially 6-7 question marks and other than a major injury to Paddack all the pitchers have performed better than expected outside of a few injuries.   

The other thing is that the young bats and defensive players have really done well.   As inconsistent as the bats have been,  I actually think this is something that is going to drastically improve as the year goes on.  

I think the Twins win the Division pulling away.  What the last week is showing is that Kiriloff and Miranda are becoming very strong COG's in the lineup.  When you add them to ABC  that creates a strong top 6 in the lineup including Kepler.  Urshela and Sanchez have been steady then we just need decent production from the the other outfield position.   That is a top 5 lineup.   

As to the weakness it is the bullpen partially due to overuse.  We need to add 2 more strong arms,  and hope Maeda or Alcala can make it back by the end of the season.   

 

[MMMordabito]

I'm surprised with how effective the starting pitching has been despite all the injuries.  Smeltzer has been a godsend.  Bundy has worked out better so far than the Happs and Shoemakers that he's been comp'd to.

This is a stretch, but I predict that Luis Arraez will reach the 200 hit marker in 2022. It will be the first time for a Twin since 1996 (Paul Molitor).  He'll need to be in the lineup everyday, but that appears to be the plan.