Week in Review: Late Inning Fireworks

[Nick Nelson]

No lead was safe over the past week, for the Twins or their opponents. At Cleveland, Minnesota saw its bullpen woes extend in another series of crushing late losses, but the tables were turned in the team's return home against Baltimore.

Alternating constantly between maddening and exhilarating, this Twins season – now halfway complete – never fails to stoke the emotions.

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 75 | MIN 11, CLE 1: Twins Dominate Behind Gray's Greatness
Game 76 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Pagán Implosion Wastes Smeltzer Gem
Game 77 | MIN 6, CLE 0: Winder Excels in Return as Twins Roll
Game 78 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Bullpen Blows 3-Run Lead in 10th Inning
Game 79 | CLE 5, MIN 3: No Relief as Bullpen Scraps Another Lead
Game 80 | MIN 3, BAL 2: Twins Walk Off on Buxton Home Run
Game 81 | MIN 4, BAL 3: Another Walk-off Win Courtesy of Miranda
Game 82 | BAL 3, MIN 1: Offense Unable to Wake Up in Sleepy Loss

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/27 through Sun, 7/3
***
Record Last Week: 4-4 (Overall: 45-37)
Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +44)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA)

NEWS & NOTES

Aside from the transition of power atop the pitching coach hierarchy – with Wes Johnson leaving on Thursday for his new job at LSU while Pete Maki stepped in to replace him and Colby Suggs joined the staff as an assistant – the past week was relatively quiet in terms of roster news. 

Jorge Polanco was activated from his short stint on the injured list, with Mark Contreras heading back to Triple-A. Polanco provided a nice boost in his return, launching a pair of key home runs in victories. 

Tyler Thornburg, who took one of the bullpen's three losses in Cleveland, was designated for assignment afterward. The Twins swapped in Juan Minaya as they continue to reshuffle deck chairs on a sinking ship. This bullpen needs help and needs it fast. But we'll get to that shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

Of late, when the Twins win, they tend to do so by healthy margins, as in their 11-1 and 6-0 blowouts against the Guardians. 

When they lose, it tends to be by one or two runs, and often in a game where they had a late lead. I'm not saying it's a good thing that the bullpen is coughing up so many winnable affairs, but for the team to so consistently be in that position speaks to how effective the offense and rotation have been.

Twins starters consistently excelled over the past week. Sonny Gray led the way with an ace-like effort to open the Cleveland series, tossing seven innings of shutout ball with three hits allowed. He followed with a less impressive outing on Saturday (5 IP, 3 ER) but kept the team within range for a late comeback.

Joe Ryan delivered one of his finest performances of the season on Friday night, firing seven innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed. It was a much-needed rebound after the right-hander struggled in June to the tune of a 5.74 ERA, perhaps struggling to shake off the after-effects of a long bout with COVID.

Fresh off his own lengthy spell on the sidelines, Josh Winder was flat-out brilliant in the first half of Tuesday's doubleheader. Making his first big-league appearance in five weeks, Winder blanked the Guardians over six frames, allowing one walk and four hits. He struck out one, inducing just four swinging strikes on 81 pitches. 

On the one hand, it's good to see he can still shut down a lineup without his best stuff. On the other hand, it'd be nice to see that stuff from earlier in the year resurface, given the shoulder issues. Winder returned to the minors after joining the team as 27th man for the twin billing, but should be back soon. Perhaps as a reliever?

Devin Smeltzer capped off a great day of pitching on Tuesday with a gem of his own in the nightcap. The left-hander refreshingly mixed in nine strikeouts over six innings of one-run ball. He was solid again on Sunday, but bit by the long-ball as Baltimore launched three solo homers to tag him with a loss. Two of those home runs came in succession during his third trip through the order in the sixth, illustrating why the Twins have been so reluctant to push their back-end starters despite many fans calling for it.

Alas, the rotation definitely did its job last week, allowing 11 earned runs in 46 innings for a 2.15 ERA. The offense also did its job, albeit in spotty fashion.

They exploded out of the gates with an 11-run onslaught against Triston McKenzie and the Guardians, keyed by Gary Sánchez's four RBIs. Tuesday's nightcap, a 6-0 win, saw six players notch multiple hits. The following day featured three big home runs from Alex Kirilloff, Gio Urshela and Max Kepler. 

At home against Baltimore, the lineup went into prolonged spells of total silence, rattling of inning after inning of consecutive outs. But they made up for it on Friday and Saturday with clutch ninth-inning theatrics fueling back-to-back walk-off wins. On Saturday it was José Miranda following up Polanco's game-tying home run with a well-struck RBI single to left. 

The previous night, Byron Buxton added another signature Target Field moment to his ever-growing catalog. With the Twins trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Luis Arraez battled through a fantastic at-bat that concluded with a leadoff single to center. Up came Buxton, who got a slider he could handle and sent it into the bleachers on a half-swing.

It must be noted that the reliever who was on the mound while Minnesota manufactured both of these stunning comebacks was closer Jorge López, who's been one of the best in the league. He allowed zero home runs all year before Buck took him deep, and entered the series with a 0.73 ERA. 

One could make an argument that the past week laid bare the Twins lineup's over-reliance on home runs, and susceptibility to slumping stretches. But at the end of the day, when you're averaging 4.75 runs per game – as the offense did last week – while showing a consistent ability to rise to the occasion with huge timely hits (including Kepler's three-run blast in the 10th on Wednesday, which went to waste), it's tough to complain. 

The rotation and lineup are equipped to propel this team to the playoffs and perhaps to do some damage once they get there. But making that happen is really a matter of damage control with the other lagging unit on this club.

LOWLIGHTS

If there have ever been worse eight-day stretches endured by a major-league reliever than the one Emilio Pagán just went through, there can't have been many. His hellish run against Minnesota's top divisional rival of the moment carried over from Minneapolis to Cleveland, where the embattled righty was AGAIN responsible for blowing late-game leads on back-to-back days. 

This marks the second consecutive week in which Pagán wore the goat label, repeatedly letting (sometimes comfortable) leads turn into losses on his watch. And look, I'm not going to say Pagán is good or that his poor results are undeserved. There is certainly a case to be made for Rocco Baldelli being in the wrong to keep calling on him, although it bears mentioning that...

• A - Pagán had a 2.45 ERA coming into this stretch.
• B - He has one of the best strikeout rates in the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average.
• C - Aside from Tyler Duffey, he is the only reliever in this unit with any track record as a standout late-inning MLB arm.

Anyway, focusing solely on Pagán misses the point with this bullpen. It misses the point made clear by Duffey going through the same thing earlier in the season (he still rates worse than Pagán in Win Probability Added). The point made clear by Jharel Cotton and Thornburg failing to get it done when given their own chances in key spots.

This relief corps is hopelessly undermanned in its current form. Baldelli has two good options and they happen to be two of the most important young pitchers for the bullpen's future outlook, so running them into the ground isn't a viable option. That frequently leaves him choosing between a bunch of known blow-up risks in close games. 

It's the second straight year in which Baldelli – who managed outstanding bullpens in his first two division-winning seasons – has been sabotaged by his front office on the relief front. In 2021, the Twins parted with several effective members of the 2020 group while making Alex Colomé their central addition. This year they traded All-Star closer Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day for Pagán and a damaged starter.

Baldelli could be doing certain things better, to be sure, but this isn't his mess to clean up. It's the front office's. How long will they let their poor bullpen planning continue to sabotage an otherwise continually impressive, likable, winning ballclub?

TRENDING STORYLINE

That question becomes paramount now that we're in July, with the trade deadline about a month away. Asked about his approach to the fledgling market, Derek Falvey didn't indicate much urgency.

“I don’t anticipate anything that active in the short term,” Falvey told reporters. “That’s just common. There are a lot of teams trying to flesh out the market. Are teams in it? Are teams not in it? Have they had the chance to really talk through that? When you’re on the buy side of that, sometimes you have to wait for the sellers to make their final determination about whether they’re ready to go.”

Okay, sure. But it's not like trades have never happened in early July. A team like the last-place Orioles, who just left town, has no illusions about their chances of reaching the playoffs, and would surely be open to conversations about one or two of their many outstanding relief arms. (They lead the American League in bullpen fWAR, even after the past weekend's hiccups.)

Will the price be higher now than in four weeks? No doubt, but that's the nature of the beast. The front office passed up its opportunity to acquire more proven MLB bullpen talent at a lesser cost during the offseason, so now they'll have to pay the piper. 

Either that or continue to do a disservice to their manager, starting pitchers, position players, and fans by running out a bullpen that is blatantly unequipped to hold up its end of the bargain.

LOOKING AHEAD

While we've all been paying close attention to the Guardians and their hot pursuit of the first-place Twins, the White Sox have been ... well, continuing to putter around. With the calendar flipping to July, they've still been unable to able to crack the .500 mark – the last date Chicago had a winning record was May 22nd.

Nevertheless, I consider this team a threat. More so than a mediocre Cleveland squad that's been squeaking out late-inning nail biters to stay competitive in the Central. The White Sox have a lot of good talent and are liable to go on a tear at any time if they can shake off the malaise that's characterized much of their season, although they are coming off a sweep in San Francisco. 

If the White Sox are able to do the same at home against the Twins, they'll move within a game and a half of first place. Make no mistake, this is a big series and a key proving ground for the Twins – especially their bullpen.

MONDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Johnny Cueto
TUESDAY, 7/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Michael Kopech
WEDNESDAY, 7/6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Lance Lynn
FRIDAY, 7/8: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Martin Perez
SATURDAY, 7/9: TWINS @ RANGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Jon Gray
SUNDAY, 7/10: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Dane Dunning

View full article

[h2oface]

How many games of heroic offensive performances in the last couple inning were wasted by this our pen? It almost makes one forget how clutch and special they were, because the pitching staff blew them all up.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are on a 90 win pace. There have been some beautiful wins and some ugly losses but baseball can be messy. The consensus was that the Twins were a .500 team until they added Correa. Optimist hoped for 83-87 wins. This past week saw the Twins face some emerging talent from Cleveland and Baltimore. Chicago is hoping to sweep the Twins and Texas will be a challenge as well. I will look for a 4-2 record on this road trip but be content with 3-3. The Twins do need their young guys like Miranda, Kirilloff, and Celestino to be tough outs and hurt bad pitches and their stars need to shine too. It is a race to the All Star break now when every team makes their internal assessments.

[Aerodeliria]

Nice wrap up Nick. We do need one arm that is more-or-less reliable. I also agree that Pagán has taken a lot of heat, but there were few options available, so that simply emphasizes the need (see I do defend Baldelli when I think he is not at fault). I actually kind of hoped Baldelli would let Duran-Duran take one more inning in the extra inning fiasco, but I can understand not wanting Duran-Duran to get three plus innings as well.

[Game7-91]

It's the second straight year in which Baldelli – who managed outstanding bullpens in his first two division-winning seasons – has been sabotaged by his front office on the relief front.

Sums it up perfectly Nick. Waiting 4 more weeks is not an option. Also agree White Sox are the looming threat. FO needs to act soon.

[terrydactyls]

If the Twins have to pay a little more to obtain a Lopez-like reliever (or several) right now, then do it.  All sides win.  The players the Twins trade can settle in with their new teams.  The Twins will have a stronger bullpen for an extra month.  And the teams that the Twins trade with get longer to evaluate their new toys.   The front office should have a feeling of "urgency" right now.

[Otaknam]

My dissatisfaction w Rocco is that he is too analytics driven and never seems to deviate. Case in point: Ryan was dominating on Friday, seven innings, 89 pitches, one run two hits and a walk. So naturally that means he has to be replaced with a less than stellar BP. I know that the third and fourth time thru the order is more difficult for the pitcher, but baseball history is filled with 1000’s of examples that don’t support this. Even Brad Radke had a lot of complete games and won 20 games without dominating stuff. And relying too much on the BP wears them out too. 

[RelentlessHooah]

I am so sick of Rocco getting blasted by Twins Fans. So many of his pitchers are young and need to be brought up SLOWLY. They need rest and innings limits and protected. If the FO had given him the ammunition he needed to run this team properly, we’d have at least 10 more wins right now. It’s not on the rotation or the offense. It’s solely the Front Office that failed.

[garn from vancouver]

was lucky enough to see in person the 9th inning heroics of byron buxton. so great to be there for that. it was great to be at the game sunday as well even though the results weren't as great. i love being in that park.

 

thanks twins!!

[Minny505]

Another one in agreement on the Sox being the main threat. That said, both the Sox and Indians have a better real record than their BaseRuns record, while the Twins are pretty much spot on. 

I do expect the Sox to trade to make themselves better, but they have a lot of improving to do in the second half to look like a real competitor to the Twins. 

I would not be surprised to see the Guardians once again be sellers at the deadline even if they have a winning record.