Twins 1, Orioles 3: Walk-Off Magic Runs Out in Minnesota

[Matt Braun]

Wait, they didn't come back?

 

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Devin Smeltzer: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Max Kepler (.138), Carlos Correa (.132), Jose Miranda (.109)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Devin Smeltzer, already established as the rotation’s savior, faced off against an ex-Twins farmhand, Tyler Wells. Smeltzer had just set a season-high in strikeouts (10) in his previous start; Wells looked to continue his effectiveness in the Orioles’ starting rotation.

The game began sleepily and lazily; neither team scored until the 5th inning, and both the Twins and the Orioles committed a careless error in the 1st frame. Gilberto Celestino was the culprit for Minnesota; Rougned Odor was the one for Baltimore. The mistakes did not lead to runs.

The Orioles struck in the 4th inning; Anthony Santander hit a Texas Leaguer over Alex Kirilloff’s head and reached 2nd base after Smeltzer uncharacteristically spiked a wild pitch into the dirt. Tyler Nevin—the son of former Twin and current red-ass Phil Nevin—smoked a single up the middle, forcing Santander to try his luck with Celestino’s arm from center field. In a close battle, Celestino’s throw beat Santander to the plate, and Gary Sánchez slapped the runner to secure the out and energize the crowd.

But the Twins offense remained in a coma; Wells, typically not a strike-out pitcher, overwhelmed Minnesota’s bats with his rising fastball and darting slider. Hitters of all variety failed to fight back; the team’s array of lefties netted just one extra-base hit (a Nick Gordon double in the 6th inning), while many walked away with an extra strikeout or two on their ledger. Even Luis Arraez punched out. Something was not right.

Fortune turned quickly in the middle innings. Odor smoked a solo homer to right field to net the first run of the ball game; Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle blasted off consecutively in the next frame. Suddenly, after Smeltzer appeared well in command of the game, the score ballooned to 3-0.

After innings of nothingness, the Twins revved up their engines in the 6th, trampolining off a Celestino lead-off walk to plate a run. There was a slight feeling of disappointment amid the success; Carlos Correa grounded into a double-play following an Arraez single, eliminating a base-runner before Jorge Polanco singled home Celestino.

Juan Minaya did his best to keep the Twins in the game; the often yo-yo-ed righty posted two scoreless innings with three strikeouts and one hit allowed. On a team looking for relief help, such outings will help Minaya make a case for acquiring crucial innings down the stretch.

The Twins could not find success even after Wells exited the game. A series of Baltimore relievers—Keegan Akin, Joey Krehbiel, and Dillon Tate—continued Wells’ dominance and shutout Minnesota’s offense in the final three frames.

What’s Next?

The Twins will travel to Chicago and take on the White Sox for the first a few series in July; Dylan Bundy will take the mound for Minnesota, while Johnny Cueto (yes, he’s still around) will toe the rubber for Chicago.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[PDX Twin]

The team looks a little tired. And, quite honestly, I'm a little tired of them too. They need someone or something to get them pumped up. (Apparently two walk-off wins did not do the trick.)

I don't know what the answer is, but they have 2-3 of these really "blah" games every week.

[mikelink45]

Tough loss. I know we still won the series but this is Baltimore and we should be able to score three or more runs. Tired of Wells looks like somebody who is a significant loss for the team that is in need of arms. But good for him.  

[ashbury]

The one-time Bomba Squad gets beaten by 3 solo homers, while they scratch out an orphan tally during a double play.

[Danchat]

They're quite lucky to take 2/3 from Baltimore, but we've got to hope the offense can do something to starting pitching - going 3 games with 2 total runs off starters is not OK!

Also:

Smeltzer should stay in the rotation, but come playoff time it'd make more sense to him to operate as a long reliever. 

 

[jorgenswest]

The team looks tired and maybe with good reason. They are well into a stretch of 17 games in 16 days. They had a earlier stretch of 18 games in 17 days that spanned May to June. As a result they have played 6 more games than Cleveland and Chicago.

The answer just might be the upcoming schedule with some days off and the all star break.

[h2oface]

Who needed Tyler Wells, anyway? Had to make all that room for the dumpster diving arms that shockingly didn't pan out. Pitching identification. That's the ticket. Tyler Wells takes care of the home team now.

[rv78]

No reason for this team to be tired. Rocco gives everyone more than enough days off. Once again Buxton doesn't play. Whatever happened to guys like Ripken Jr who played every day. Are today's players a bunch of wimps or are these guys really not that good? Maybe they need to take a look at their conditioning program if they are tired. Some of the guys in the lineup today that haven't played much lately were Polanco, Gordon, Garlick, Kirilloff, Celestino. Thinking they are tired is a poor excuse. Correa gets days off, Miranda is young and shouldn't have that problem. Only two guys that might be being overused are Sanchez and Kepler. Jeffers was hurt and Kepler is well, Kepler the over-rated. Twins were lucky to win the 2 games that they did, it should have and very easily could have been a sweep by the Orioles. This team just can't put it together. So Smeltzer gave up 3 runs...that shouldn't mean a demotion to the bullpen or AAA. If the bullpen and the offense do their job that should be good enough to win. 

[BH67]

Watkins, Lyles and Wells (the Orioles' starting trio), in aggregate:

Season to June 30:

4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 in 190.1 IP

This weekend:

1.47 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 in 18.1 IP

Mary-Chapin Carpenter's usually true lyrical axiom is validated here: "Hey, the stars might lie, but the numbers never do."

[Sutter50]

This team is still in 1st place. If you  go 6-4 every 10 games you will win almost 100 games in a season. Go 4-6 you will lose 100. The best hitters in the world fail 2/3 of the time. It's baseball,  you can't overreact to every single game win or lose. The hyperventilating on this site is amazing 

[ashbury]

42 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Watkins, Lyles and Wells (the Orioles' starting trio), in aggregate:

Season to June 30:

4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 in 190.1 IP

This weekend:

1.47 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 in 18.1 IP

Mary-Chapin Carpenter's usually true lyrical axiom is validated here: "Hey, the stars might lie, but the numbers never do."

Feel lucky, do you?

[Vanimal46]

2 biggest buzz kills today was Correa sawing off half of his bat grounding into a double play. And Celestino grounding out to 1B with 2 on base in the 8th inning. Disappointing that Buxton wasn’t available even in as a sub. That was a critical point in the game that made all the sense in the world to PH Buxton. 

[gil4]

5 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

The team looks a little tired. And, quite honestly, I'm a little tired of them too. They need someone or something to get them pumped up. (Apparently two walk-off wins did not do the trick.)

I don't know what the answer is, but they have 2-3 of these really "blah" games every week.

I got my nap in during the game today. Apparently the Twins did too.

[BH67]

2 hours ago, Sutter50 said:

This team is still in 1st place. If you  go 6-4 every 10 games you will win almost 100 games in a season. Go 4-6 you will lose 100. The best hitters in the world fail 2/3 of the time. It's baseball,  you can't overreact to every single game win or lose. The hyperventilating on this site is amazing 

I agree to an extent.  However, the strategy of "skating to where the puck will be" -- i.e., discerning where things are likely going -- benefits from seeing trends unfolding over several games or weeks.  Most of the concerns stated here result therefrom, especially the bullpen and situational hitting issues.

Frustration over Buxton, Correa and Kepler generating just one run from two opportunities Saturday night where runners reached second and third with nobody out can be interpreted reasonably as single game overreaction, sure.  To me, this appears a bigger concern for the long term than Sonny Gray having an off night.  But your admonition is still wise, and I appreciate you expressing it.

[h2oface]

Correa is just going to bolt, anyway. They should be playing him every single game and more. Get your 35 million worth. Same with any other 1 year contract or expiring contract. Baseball really isn't that grueling. If they all spent time stretching, even on the bench, bench yoga, they would all be able to stay on the field more and not pull and rip all their muscles so often, etc. Even if you only get paid a million a year, you get to play baseball in the show and get paid for it. Not that hard, really.

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, BH67 said:

Watkins, Lyles and Wells (the Orioles' starting trio), in aggregate:

Season to June 30:

4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 in 190.1 IP

This weekend:

1.47 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 in 18.1 IP

Mary-Chapin Carpenter's usually true lyrical axiom is validated here: "Hey, the stars might lie, but the numbers never do."

See. Pitchers aren't really that good. It's just the bats didn't get any hits this series when they were pitching. Same with Bob Gibson.  He wasn't that good, either, it was just that other teams didn't get many hits on the days he pitched. Lucky.

[bean5302]

Wells had over 10 K/9 last year and every single stop in the minors except 2018 in A+ before bouncing back the same year at AA. He's been stretching out this year and the K rate tumbled for sure. The Orioles have been trying to limit Wells pitch counts to the same extent the Twins have limited Archer so there are reasons to expect Wells has the ability to crank it up and get a few more strike outs. He remains a huge Rule 5 screwup by Minnesota.

 

[Whitey333]

Twins offense not that great this weekend.  Glad they won 2 out of 3.  People on here that keep telling us one game doesn't matter is kind of true.  But those losses add up to maybe missing playoffs all together.  Rocco's inability to be a manager has been shown the past couple of years.  His game plan stubbornness and inability to do in game adjustments is appalling.  Making sure Buxton gets one of his many days off and then not using him as a pinch hitter in key situations is becoming the norm.  He is much more concerned about his game plan than winning.  That is obvious.  Don't upset the analytics and spread sheet.  I will agree that Buxton is not a good pinch hitter and may not have mattered.  But we surely don't know that do we?  It is possible the computer that predicts everything could be wrong couldn't it?  Or is this all MLB has become?  Just a huge boring video game?  And how can the players be tired.  They get plenty of time off from the manager.  Where else can a part time player like Buxton be congratulated for missing over 20% of games and not used when the team could use him.  I've said it many times.  I hope Twins win the division.  In the likely event they do not Baldelli will be mostly responsible.

[Riverbrian]

I've got a section in my backyard that has been over run with thistles.

It took a long time to dig them out yesterday. After that I mowed the lawn. 

Didn't sleep well last night because my body was pretty sore. 

This is what tired feels like. 

[Old Twins Cap]

I figured there was no way the Twins could lay an egg on offense for three-four-five games in a row, so I bought tickets.

Yeesh.  What a yawner.

Celestino though, his catch in right center field and his throw home all the way on the fly after running down a two-hopper.... two "wow" moments.

The DP that Correa hit into, the ground out by Celestino in the 8th, and especially the check swing ground out by Miranda with no strikes in the count, pretty tough to handle.

Baseball is a hard game, I get that, and Baltimore threw the ball well, but, there is such a thing as making your own breaks, whether taking a walk, bunting for a hit, or not lining out to the left fielder five different times.

[rwilfong86]

14 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

2 biggest buzz kills today was Correa sawing off half of his bat grounding into a double play. And Celestino grounding out to 1B with 2 on base in the 8th inning. Disappointing that Buxton wasn’t available even in as a sub. That was a critical point in the game that made all the sense in the world to PH Buxton. 

Seemed like they just couldn't get that big hit with runners on. 

[Doctor Gast]

Another flat game from the baby blue Twinkies uniforms, Why haven't they burned them yet? Why did they ever bring them back?! It's like a bad horror movie,

[Schmoeman5]

15 hours ago, h2oface said:

Correa is just going to bolt, anyway. They should be playing him every single game and more. Get your 35 million worth. Same with any other 1 year contract or expiring contract. Baseball really isn't that grueling. If they all spent time stretching, even on the bench, bench yoga, they would all be able to stay on the field more and not pull and rip all their muscles so often, etc. Even if you only get paid a million a year, you get to play baseball in the show and get paid for it. Not that hard, really.

That would be 35.1 to be precise. Boras bonus. Lol

[rv78]

5 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Seemed like they just couldn't get that big hit with runners on. 

This is a problem that happens WAY too often for this team to be successsful in the long run. When your Manager waits for the big hit and it doesn't come then you have to manufacture runs. Rocco doesn't know how to do that.