Miguel Sanó’s Looming Return

[Mortimerkenny21]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Why is cheap part of the equation? He is paid for the year. I am not interested in next year.

I am interested in next year, and this year I think those 3 guys can pull the weight of Sano..if not better. I know he has a buyout, but not paying him 14M for next year could desperately be used for pitching. IMO

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

You man not need to make that decision. Often times the decision is made for you with an injury. 

If it was today and my decision. It would reluctantly be Garlick. 

It would be Garlick because he has an option and he is playing less than others on the roster. 

Now... I don't personally believe that Garlick should be playing less but that's another subject. 

 

 

Garlick against LH pitching is way more valuable than having Sano around unless of course he comes back much better than when he went down.  I would not be surprised if Twins have already started shopping him so that interested teams can send scouts to monitor his progress.  Hopefully, there is a team who believes he is the Jorge Soler of 2022 and takes him off our hands.  

[joefish]

I could offer to take Miguel on a "fishing trip."

[Brandon]

To protect his knee Sano will move to DH.  He will take AB from Sanchez mostly.  If he continues to not hit he will get released.  Probably after 50 AB.  If he hits he can either be traded or he will play out the season as a DH occasional 1B and be let go after the season.   Any way you look at it the Sano era is coming to a close.  I guess Sano could slug .700 when he gets back and get his option picked up but I doubt it.

[bean5302]

First off, Sano is not making $14MM this year. He's making $9.25MM. His $14MM next year is a club option which there is a 0% chance of the Twins picking up and if he were traded, another team would be on the hook for the $2.75MM buyout.

Sano has been bad at the plate and mind bogglingly horrible in the field for years now. He's posted negative WPA's for 3 straight seasons where he produced a best of wRC+ 110 last year after an abysmal start. wRC+ 110 is Sano's ceiling. For a DH (because his defense is so horrifying in the field that he's actually worth more defensively as a DH), there's just no value there.

To trade Sano, another team has to be interested. Judging by the comments here, virtually nobody believes Sano has any value for the Twins so I'm not sure why there's a feeling other clubs would want our expensive cast offs. Crushing AAA pitching on a rehab assignment isn't impressive to me and I doubt it would be impressive to other teams. I do expect Sano will start his rehab assignment any time now and he'll be ready to come back before the deadline. What would the Twins get back in a trade for Sano? Well, to even make it happen, the Twins would need to eat the entirety of Sano's contract including the buyout and what would they get back? A mid level prospect maybe? Think a Drew Strotman. A guy who needs to be rostered, but isn't all that great. Just another roster crunch issue.

The best option is to DFA him and assign him to AAA. Sano will probably refuse the assignment and some team will probably pick him up at the MLB minimum or he may even have to sign a MiLB contract. 

I said this in another thread, but I think Sano is 50/50 never to be seen in MLB again after this season.

[Stew]

This is last time I will talk about sano. Here is the problem. We don't have enough time before trade deadline to get his stats better. The twins will give him work till after the all-star break. At some point he better be hitting. If he is they will bring him up as mostly a d.h. next year he should get released. If he finishes out the year really strong, the maybe a trade. Either way he's gone , period!!!!!!!

 

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

Sad story. To hear the guys in the booth say that Sano just refuses to hit the other way like Cabrera does is disappointing. Trying to pull every pitch and failing should tell the young man he has to change. But several have mentioned he won't change. Send to st Paul to sell a few tickets Then part ways.

Oh. I'll just bet there's 8 people in all of Minnesota who can't wait to go see Sano play in St.Paul. His wife and children and his parents. Thatll be a tough ticket to buy for sure

[Johnny Ringo]

If he is traded the receiving club either would have to pay him $14mm for next year or buy him out. If that is so, isn't he untradeable? They would have to pay his pro-rated contract for the rest of this year (about $5 mm) and the buy-out of $2.75mm or $7.75mm effectively for two months. Who would do that with all of the uncertainty around him? What has (negatively) impressed me about Sano the past few years is his inability to hit plus fastballs. He seems overmatched at anything over 95mph. For most clubs, that is the 5th guy out of the pen these days.

He clearly is not in the plans in 2023 at $14 million. Even if they could, the Twins wouldn't pay him 1/3 of that. Save the ABs for someone who is part of next year. 

I think the only way he is not DFAd is if injuries to others intervene.    

[Schmoeman5]

The TD GMs are all for trading Sano to this club or that club for this guy or that guy. So if you really were a GM what would you give up to acquire him. NOTHING! If he is traded he'll be a toss in part of a larger deal.

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, Brandon said:

To protect his knee Sano will move to DH.  He will take AB from Sanchez mostly.  If he continues to not hit he will get released.  Probably after 50 AB.  If he hits he can either be traded or he will play out the season as a DH occasional 1B and be let go after the season.   Any way you look at it the Sano era is coming to a close.  I guess Sano could slug .700 when he gets back and get his option picked up but I doubt it.

Sanchez is not getting many DH bats now that Polanco and Kirilloff are back.  They will be taken by one of Arraez / Kirilloff or Miranda.

[Major League Ready]

29 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

If he is traded the receiving club either would have to pay him $14mm for next year or buy him out. If that is so, isn't he untradeable? They would have to pay his pro-rated contract for the rest of this year (about $5 mm) and the buy-out of $2.75mm or $7.75mm effectively for two months. Who would do that with all of the uncertainty around him? What has (negatively) impressed me about Sano the past few years is his inability to hit plus fastballs. He seems overmatched at anything over 95mph. For most clubs, that is the 5th guy out of the pen these days.

He clearly is not in the plans in 2023 at $14 million. Even if they could, the Twins wouldn't pay him 1/3 of that. Save the ABs for someone who is part of next year. 

I think the only way he is not DFAd is if injuries to others intervene.    

They are on the hook for the rest of his salary and the buyout, so they are not really out anything if they pay his salary / buyout and trade him if that netted any sort of return.  They could also trade him for partial salary relief or even just to get rid of the buyout cost.  All of this won't matter because no team is going to bother if he does not look considerably better than he did preinjury. 

[D.C Twins]

Very telling that I completely forget about him until the biweekly TD article. 

I look forward to the day when we don' have to discuss him anymore.

[JoeCool]

I think we stash him at AAA with a long rehab assignment to get him up to game speed. 

i think we hang onto him and see if we can work out the kinks in his game. 
 

I feel the same frustration, but when he is hot, he is extremely dangerous to have in the lineup. Imagine if we catch lightning in a bottle with him around playoff time? He has more upside than Garlick, Ursula, or Miranda.  The latter two have more versatility, but how will they perform against some of the top aces in baseball? 
 

If he gets hot at the right time in the playoffs he can be a difference maker.  
 

We need another good starter and some relievers. Nobody will give that up for Sano. 
 

Let’s hope for lightning in a bottle and limit his exposure without the lightning. 

 

[DocBauer]

Preferencing my comments by stating that while frustrated by Sano's cold starks and "streakiness" during the balance of the season, I have largely defended him and what he brings to the lineup. Now, unless he's in "hot" mode, I've never liked him in the 3 or 4 spot in the lineup. I've always liked him better 5-7, knocking guys in that are hopefully OB, and his cold spells don't impact as much. And his power and production DOES and HAS added to runs and wins over time.

But the simple truth is, he's not part of the future and it's very doubtful he is back next year. And he's been passed on the roster by younger players with good ceilings who are just better overall in Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda. Urshela isn't better than Sano, but he's OK and a different type of player with greater defensive value. Steer may be ready by next year, and Wallner may be ready within a year. 

Now, a long and successful rehab and he looks like his "hot" self and there is an injury, he could, potentially, provide real value in August and September to close out this year. He can DH and play 1B and just be dangerous as hell. Let's be honest, he could crank out 10-15 HR and another 10-12 doubles with 25-30 RBI over that 2 month span. He could also struggle to hit .220 with hardly any contact or power or production.

I just don't see a DFA. But I also don't see room unless another good bat is demoted or someone is hurt. But as is often said, these things often take care of themselves. He just might help still. Other teams aren't stupid. They know who and what Sano is, and isn't. The best case scenario would be a hit rehab, and a team, preferably in the NL, who is hurting for RH power and would either trade a rental BP piece they feel they could afford to give up, or a milb BP arm knocking at the door and seemingly ready for a shot. He could also be part of a deal for said ML BP arm.

[RpR]

59 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Preferencing my comments by stating that while frustrated by Sano's cold starks and "streakiness" during the balance of the season, I have largely defended him and what he brings to the lineup. Now, unless he's in "hot" mode, I've never liked him in the 3 or 4 spot in the lineup. I've always liked him better 5-7, knocking guys in that are hopefully OB, and his cold spells don't impact as much. And his power and production DOES and HAS added to runs and wins over time.

But the simple truth is, he's not part of the future and it's very doubtful he is back next year. And he's been passed on the roster by younger players with good ceilings who are just better overall in Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda. Urshela isn't better than Sano, but he's OK and a different type of player with greater defensive value. Steer may be ready by next year, and Wallner may be ready within a year. 

Now, a long and successful rehab and he looks like his "hot" self and there is an injury, he could, potentially, provide real value in August and September to close out this year. He can DH and play 1B and just be dangerous as hell. Let's be honest, he could crank out 10-15 HR and another 10-12 doubles with 25-30 RBI over that 2 month span. He could also struggle to hit .220 with hardly any contact or power or production.

I just don't see a DFA. But I also don't see room unless another good bat is demoted or someone is hurt. But as is often said, these things often take care of themselves. He just might help still. Other teams aren't stupid. They know who and what Sano is, and isn't. The best case scenario would be a hit rehab, and a team, preferably in the NL, who is hurting for RH power and would either trade a rental BP piece they feel they could afford to give up, or a milb BP arm knocking at the door and seemingly ready for a shot. He could also be part of a deal for said ML BP arm.

You greatly over rate the rookies .

[Brian J]

9 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Putting Sano back at first and benching Kirilloff and Miranda would be criminal. Hand him a check for the rest of whatever he's got coming for this year, pay him the buy-out option for next year and wish him well. Money well spent.

Move 

[DocBauer]

33 minutes ago, RpR said:

You greatly over rate the rookies .

I do?

Miranda the past 30 days: .315/ .344/ .533/ .877 w/ 4HR and 16 RBI and trending 

Kirilloff the past 15 days, barely back: .260/.278/.420/.698.

Krilloff the past 7 days, barely back: .333/ .370/ .542/ .912 w/ 1HR and 12 total RBI and trending.

Larnach as of June 15th had 13 doubles, 5 HR, a .246 AVG and 124OPS+. Didn't have access to monthly numbers. Not sure he wasn't already suffering from injury on June 15th.

TOP prospects getting first chance or coming back from injury and looking good, or looking good before injury in the case of Larnach. AK was RAKING at AAA before his promotion. Wish I had the full numbers of Larnach month to month, and his BA against LHP. Three of our TOP prospects all trending upward. 

 

[Rosterman]

Well, they want to get their monies worth, including the buyout.

I imagine as much time as needed in the minors.

He can still be the fulltime DH if push comes to shove. I like Arraez at first, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda as the bench/spell guy. Larnach could prove a problem if he needs play

But the minute Sano starts to hit, try and trade him.

[jimbo92107]

Best thing for all parties would be: Sano belts some mammoth homers in St Paul, then gets traded in a package that gets the Twins a solid relief pitcher. Sano needs a fresh start on a team that needs a big bat and an okay 1B. He's still fairly young, immensely strong, and can hit those crowd-pleasing 450-footers...between all the KO's. He's just not going to be Frank Thomas 2.0, which was what some of us thought maybe he could become. But he'll always be a scary hitter, at 1B or DH. 

On this Twins team, Sano's place has been taken over by Miranda and Kirilloff, both of whom are better fielders and much higher average hitters. The Twins today are doing well with hitters that keep the runners advancing, stretching those 2-out situations into RBI's. They won today's game with just that - a line drive single to walk off the win. Miranda didn't need to knock one over the fence, so his good, flat swing was plenty to get the final run over the plate. Not ignoring Polanco's long ball, but even that was a calculated choice by a high-average hitter. Polo swung for distance because he knew at 2-0 the pitcher needed to throw a strike. This year's Sano might have swung at the first two pitches, trying to hit a home run from the get go. 

If Miguel Sano ever learns proper plate discipline, watch out world...

[old nurse]

What do do with Sano becomes evident with his time in rehab. I would imagine it is a little hard to hit for power on one leg.  Many here do not seem to grasp the concept that you need to be at 100% as baseball isn’t what it used to be

 

The star burned brightly a decade ago. Now it is but a child’s toy thrown in the box marked Goodwill. The new toys are shinier

[IndianaTwin]

I think it will mostly come down to health -- not so much his, but other people's. 

For Sano, when he does come back, it will be with a rehab assignment. With several days off along the way. A minor league rehab assignment can be as long as 20 days. With the amount of time he's had off, it's hard to imagine something less than seven days, even if he crushes the ball. Much more likely is that it will take most or all of the 20 days. And unless he's crushing the ball in the minors, it's hard to imagine them clearing a 26-man spot for him on the shorter end of the 7-20 day range.

Unless someone gets hurt, which is where the first part of the health comes in. If someone does get hurt, then you can clear a spot for him. If not, I think he stays in St. Paul for the full 20 days. More on that later.

Unless someone gets hurt on another team. If that happens, and if he's crushing it in St. Paul, then maybe there's a smidgen of trade interest on him, IF the other team doesn't have a minor leaguer of their own. But it's hard to imagine receiving much of anything for him in a trade. Teams won't view it as 1.3-1.4 seasons of control, because there's virtually no team that is going to pick up the option at that cost. And someone's going to have to pay the buyout. If the Twins make the other team do that, the prospect return is even smaller. It seems more likely that the Twins would have to send cash to cover the buyout, if not also part of this year's salary. 

That's a lot of "if" and "unless," making me think it's very unlikely that a trade happens. 

Which brings us back to the rehab scenario. There's no point, and no savings, in a DFA, other than being able to keeping someone else in his stead when he's required to come off the rehab assignment.

So it's back to a Twins player's health, and I'm guessing they wait as long as they can to make a decision. That means doing as much rehab as you can before you start the 20-day clock, UNLESS someone gets hurt or starts to slump. Then, they can use the whole 20 days if they need to, making the decision on how he's performing vs. however someone with options is performing, calling him up when there's a sense that he can improve the team. By then, yeah, if nothing has opened up and he continues to struggle, you can go ahead and consider a DFA, but realistically, that's not going to happen before the trade deadline when you consider that the rehab hasn't started and can last 20 days. 

And related -- given how Kirilloff, Arraez and even Miranda have played, given how poorly Sano plays first, and given that they will want to Sano from a re-injury, it seems very unlikely that he will get even an inning of 1B, either in rehab or when/if he comes up. 

[roger]

Agree with most comments and consensus that he has little value and won’t be back next year.  I would hope that we all can agree if the FO is able to trade him for anything, even after eating most of his salary and buy-out, that we all give them an A for the trade.

[jorgenswest]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

Agree with most comments and consensus that he has little value and won’t be back next year.  I would hope that we all can agree if the FO is able to trade him for anything, even after eating most of his salary and buy-out, that we all give them an A for the trade.

I can’t agree with the last part. I don’t believe he has trade value. I do think there is a chance his bat has value to this team in the stretch run.

His upside as we saw in the second half last year is his only value to the team remaining. They need to make sure not to send him to rehab until really ready. They need to utilize the full rehab. By then we will likely be into August. If he is hitting put him on the roster. He will be valuable. If he isn’t hitting then release him.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Best thing for all parties would be: Sano belts some mammoth homers in St Paul, then gets traded in a package that gets the Twins a solid relief pitcher. Sano needs a fresh start on a team that needs a big bat and an okay 1B. He's still fairly young, immensely strong, and can hit those crowd-pleasing 450-footers...between all the KO's. He's just not going to be Frank Thomas 2.0, which was what some of us thought maybe he could become. But he'll always be a scary hitter, at 1B or DH. 

On this Twins team, Sano's place has been taken over by Miranda and Kirilloff, both of whom are better fielders and much higher average hitters. The Twins today are doing well with hitters that keep the runners advancing, stretching those 2-out situations into RBI's. They won today's game with just that - a line drive single to walk off the win. Miranda didn't need to knock one over the fence, so his good, flat swing was plenty to get the final run over the plate. Not ignoring Polanco's long ball, but even that was a calculated choice by a high-average hitter. Polo swung for distance because he knew at 2-0 the pitcher needed to throw a strike. This year's Sano might have swung at the first two pitches, trying to hit a home run from the get go. 

If Miguel Sano ever learns proper plate discipline, watch out world...

What are the chances a contender would give up a good RP for Sano? 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I do?

Miranda the past 30 days: .315/ .344/ .533/ .877 w/ 4HR and 16 RBI and trending 

Kirilloff the past 15 days, barely back: .260/.278/.420/.698.

Krilloff the past 7 days, barely back: .333/ .370/ .542/ .912 w/ 1HR and 12 total RBI and trending.

Larnach as of June 15th had 13 doubles, 5 HR, a .246 AVG and 124OPS+. Didn't have access to monthly numbers. Not sure he wasn't already suffering from injury on June 15th.

TOP prospects getting first chance or coming back from injury and looking good, or looking good before injury in the case of Larnach. AK was RAKING at AAA before his promotion. Wish I had the full numbers of Larnach month to month, and his BA against LHP. Three of our TOP prospects all trending upward. 

 

 Kirilloff is batting .067 vs left handed pitchers; Larnachis batting .212 against right handed pitchers which he has faced all most 3 times as often as left handed.

Miranda at this point seems to be the real deal with a bat but none of them have excelled in the field and both Kirilloff and Larnach do not have strong arms, while they are fighting for the left field position.

Only Miranda is a threat to Sano, and unless you have a crystal ball , no one here has any idea how well he will do after he returns, or how well any of these rookies will be doing two months from now.

A covey of posters here are trade happy and some of them may end up being traded because they end upbeing better than average.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I can’t agree with the last part. I don’t believe he has trade value. I do think there is a chance his bat has value to this team in the stretch run.

His upside as we saw in the second half last year is his only value to the team remaining. They need to make sure not to send him to rehab until really ready. They need to utilize the full rehab. By then we will likely be into August. If he is hitting put him on the roster. He will be valuable. If he isn’t hitting then release him.

Yeah, what he said, much more succinctly than I did. Particular agreement with the part I bolded. 

[wmsrandy]

Makes me think of the Twins giving up on David Ortiz. Big Papi became a legend in Boston. Best wishes for Sano. Hope that he becomes like Big Papi, in Minnesota.

[jimbo92107]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

What are the chances a contender would give up a good RP for Sano? 

Zero, of course. Sano would be part of a package (plus a prospect or three) for a good RP from a team that has no chance to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh?

[glunn]

7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I can’t agree with the last part. I don’t believe he has trade value. I do think there is a chance his bat has value to this team in the stretch run.

His upside as we saw in the second half last year is his only value to the team remaining. They need to make sure not to send him to rehab until really ready. They need to utilize the full rehab. By then we will likely be into August. If he is hitting put him on the roster. He will be valuable. If he isn’t hitting then release him.

I agree with this, except I still have hope that he can realize his potential and the Twins don't miss out on another David Ortiz.  

I am wondering how long he can be kept in rehab.  In my ideal world, he could play in AAA until people here are pleading for him to come up, and if that does not happen then he does not come up.  I am wondering how long it will be before the Twins have to make a decision.

 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, glunn said:

I agree with this, except I still have hope that he can realize his potential and the Twins don't miss out on another David Ortiz.  

I am wondering how long he can be kept in rehab.  In my ideal world, he could play in AAA until people here are pleading for him to come up, and if that does not happen then he does not come up.  I am wondering how long it will be before the Twins have to make a decision.

 

20 days is the max rehab assignment for position players.  30 days for pitchers.