Joe Ryan

[jorgenswest]

Joe Ryan’s three starts since returning from COVID have been mediocre at best. In 15.2 innings he has given up 20 hits and 4 home runs while striking out only 11. His pitch count is up and it took 102 pitches to make it through 5 innings against Colorado.

Is the drop all due to COVID? Bad luck? Is the league adjusting to him?

I hope we see the Ryan from the first two months of the season against Baltimore tonight. We will need that Ryan against Chicago next Wednesday.

[CRF]

Probably all of the above. I'm sure teams are getting the book on him and adjusting, so he'll have to adjust accordingly. I'd bet the Covid has something to do with it too. We never really did hear how severe his bout with it was, but he was out longer than some others who've had it. Maybe tonight we'll see the guy from earlier in the season. I hope so. 

[stringer bell]

Pretty sure Ryan went 6 against Colorado. 

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Pretty sure Ryan went 6 against Colorado. 

Just double checked. 5

Theilbar, Pagán, Duffey and Duran pitched 4 scoreless innings of relief heading into the 5 games with Cleveland. We really needed Joe to go deeper into the game that day.

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Just double checked. 5

Theilbar, Pagán, Duffey and Duran pitched 4 scoreless innings of relief heading into the 5 games with Cleveland. We really needed Joe to go deeper into the game that day.

You’re right. I was thinking of his previous start (Cleveland?). 

[Craig Arko]

Looks pretty good this evening.

[jorgenswest]

I really hoped to see this start. The umpire has a big strike zone at times but it still takes a pitcher with the command to take advantage. His command has been great this evening.

[Rosterman]

Too bad can't give him more run support.

He does well when he can control his syhthm on the mound, it seems.

 

Remember...this is officially his first full season.

[USAFChief]

He looked pretty bad again today. 

[Number3]

All I know is that if Rocco's leash was any shorter he could never teach a dog to heel because it wouldn't be long enough. Why start a pitcher if he is going to be yanked after 4 innings with a 2 run lead and 85 pitches? What does his relief do? Give up 2 runs in his only inning and lose the lead. At least give the starter a chance for a W and work another inning with a lead. Now Ryan has to sit 4 or 5 more days and "start" all over again. Baldelli, as the saying goes, is too smart by half. Stop managin so much.

[CRF]

He definitely hasn't pitched as well since his return from Covid. Whether that has something to do with getting sick, it's certainly possible. We may never know. He's also a rookie and he probably has to make some adjustments, as the league sees more of him and gets the reports on him. He's not pitching all that badly, but just not as well as earlier in the season. We'll have to see how the second half plays out. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Number3 said:

All I know is that if Rocco's leash was any shorter he could never teach a dog to heel because it wouldn't be long enough. Why start a pitcher if he is going to be yanked after 4 innings with a 2 run lead and 85 pitches? What does his relief do? Give up 2 runs in his only inning and lose the lead. At least give the starter a chance for a W and work another inning with a lead. Now Ryan has to sit 4 or 5 more days and "start" all over again. Ball Delli, as the saying goes, is too smart by half. Stop managin so much.

This thread is about Ryan. Can you go one thread without complaining about the manager?

As for Ryan, he definitely does not look the same. Hoping he eventually fully recovers. This is one reason I'm for acquiring a very good starter, if possible and affordable.

[Unwinder]

I'm pretty sure his velocity is down, which points to Covid as probably a bigger factor than luck or league adjustment.

[wabene]

I wonder if Thad and Derek know what this Rocco character is up to. Somebody should fill them in, Rocco may have gone rogue!

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan has been getting ridiculously lucky for a long time now. He's not pitching a lot differently (SSS) since his return than he was before, but teams are actually scoring runs closer to the rate they should be based on the number of hits and the types of batted balls.

4/8 - 4.50 ERA, 7.10 xFIP
4/15 - 1.50 ERA, 2.52 xFIP
4/21 - 0.00 ERA, 4.68 xFIP
4/27 - 0.00 ERA, 1.61 xFIP
5/3 - 3.86 ERA, 5.99 xFIP
5/10 - 9.00 ERA, 8.34 xFIP
5/15 - 1.50 ERA, 4.42 xFIP
5/21 - 1.59 ERA, 3.89 xFIP
Apr/May - 2.28 ERA, 4.45 xFIP

6/14 - 7.71 ERA, 5.34 xFIP
6/21 - 4.50 ERA, 3.26 xFIP
6/26 - 5.40 ERA, 7.49 xFIP
7/1 - 1.29 ERA, 3.88 xFIP
7/6 - 4.50 ERA, 6.47 xFIP
Jun/Jul - 4.39 ERA, 5.06 xFIP

Total 3.09 ERA, 4.86 xFIP

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I'm pretty sure his velocity is down, which points to Covid as probably a bigger factor than luck or league adjustment.

Not saying you are wrong but on the year his 4 seamer is up .5 from last year (91.2 - 91.7). Has the last few been lower than the previous starts?

I was listening to the start against Colorado on the radio and they were saying his fast ball was regularly around 91 or 92 (don't remember much above or below those numbers, his problem was he couldn't put away hitters, In the first he was 1 -2 then two balls and 4 pitches later a double, then a 5 pitch ground out (after three fouls), quick out, then went 0 -2 on Cron threw three balls and gave up a double, then a 4 pitch out. 1 run 24 pitches.

In the second, first batter 0 - 2 then walked the lead off hitter on 8 pitchers, 0 - 2 second batter three balls and a single, third batter fouled out after being down 3 - 0, fourth batter flied out after 4 pitches, fifth batter 0 - 2, got him to foul out 7 pitches later, 0 runs 33 pitches, and you knew it was going to be a short outing even though he had only given up 1 run, but 57 pitches after two.

The rest of the game he was more efficient but it doesn't take long to run up the pitch count when innings like 1 and 2, I think it was Gladden that said he doesn't a strike out pitch today he needs to quick nibbling and throw strikes.

[Unwinder]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not saying you are wrong but on the year his 4 seamer is up .5 from last year (91.2 - 91.7). Has the last few been lower than the previous starts?

I was just going off buzz on Twitter, that probably isn't the problem then.

[Trov]

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Joe Ryan has been getting ridiculously lucky for a long time now. He's not pitching a lot differently (SSS) since his return than he was before, but teams are actually scoring runs closer to the rate they should be based on the number of hits and the types of batted balls.

4/8 - 4.50 ERA, 7.10 xFIP
4/15 - 1.50 ERA, 2.52 xFIP
4/21 - 0.00 ERA, 4.68 xFIP
4/27 - 0.00 ERA, 1.61 xFIP
5/3 - 3.86 ERA, 5.99 xFIP
5/10 - 9.00 ERA, 8.34 xFIP
5/15 - 1.50 ERA, 4.42 xFIP
5/21 - 1.59 ERA, 3.89 xFIP
Apr/May - 2.28 ERA, 4.45 xFIP

6/14 - 7.71 ERA, 5.34 xFIP
6/21 - 4.50 ERA, 3.26 xFIP
6/26 - 5.40 ERA, 7.49 xFIP
7/1 - 1.29 ERA, 3.88 xFIP
7/6 - 4.50 ERA, 6.47 xFIP
Jun/Jul - 4.39 ERA, 5.06 xFIP

Total 3.09 ERA, 4.86 xFIP

I do not get why you would use xFIP compared to ERA than xERA or something that compares actual balls in play.  I do not get why some people think FIP or xFIP is some telling number.  I will agree Joe has not pitched well, but just looking at FIP does not tell a tale on how a guy is pitching just by itself.  For example, a guy gives up a walk, then induces a weak contact ground ball double play, his FIP does not look good, but I would say he did not get "lucky" by having a weak contact ground ball.  Just because someone does not get strike outs at high levels, does not mean they are lucky if they give up weak contact.  Now, if you compare additional stats about barrel rates, hard hit rates, and other stats to compare to outcomes, then maybe luck is there.  But to just say FIP and ERA are not in line mean just luck is a poor evaluation in my opinion.  

Ryan is still 70th percentile in exit velo, 64th percentile in hard hit rate.  Not amazing, but I would argue, if you are not giving up hard contact, it is not just luck on why your ERA and FIP are not in line with each other. To me luck is if you give up 110 MPH line drive that gets caught because it is hit right to a defender, not when a 80MPH ground ball or pop fly is caught.  FIP does not care if you give up nothing but rockets all over the field but everything is off the wall for doubles, but as long as you are not walking guys and getting others to strike out, FIP says you are pitching well and getting unlucky because you do not walk people and keep balls in the park.  

I am not saying Ryan is pitching well lately, he is not, but I do not understand why people only look at FIP or xFIP to see how a pitcher is doing.  It is a single stat that tells no story other than how many walks, strikeouts, and HR you are giving up, or in xFIP should have gave up.  

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, Trov said:

I do not get why you would use xFIP compared to ERA than xERA or something that compares actual balls in play.  I do not get why some people think FIP or xFIP is some telling number.  I will agree Joe has not pitched well, but just looking at FIP does not tell a tale on how a guy is pitching just by itself.  For example, a guy gives up a walk, then induces a weak contact ground ball double play, his FIP does not look good, but I would say he did not get "lucky" by having a weak contact ground ball.  Just because someone does not get strike outs at high levels, does not mean they are lucky if they give up weak contact.  Now, if you compare additional stats about barrel rates, hard hit rates, and other stats to compare to outcomes, then maybe luck is there.  But to just say FIP and ERA are not in line mean just luck is a poor evaluation in my opinion.  

Ryan is still 70th percentile in exit velo, 64th percentile in hard hit rate.  Not amazing, but I would argue, if you are not giving up hard contact, it is not just luck on why your ERA and FIP are not in line with each other. To me luck is if you give up 110 MPH line drive that gets caught because it is hit right to a defender, not when a 80MPH ground ball or pop fly is caught.  FIP does not care if you give up nothing but rockets all over the field but everything is off the wall for doubles, but as long as you are not walking guys and getting others to strike out, FIP says you are pitching well and getting unlucky because you do not walk people and keep balls in the park.  

I am not saying Ryan is pitching well lately, he is not, but I do not understand why people only look at FIP or xFIP to see how a pitcher is doing.  It is a single stat that tells no story other than how many walks, strikeouts, and HR you are giving up, or in xFIP should have gave up.  

My post was not to say Joe Ryan is a bad pitcher and needs to be DFA'd. Fangraphs' basic stats in the game logs do not include xERA, and even though you feel xFIP is hot garbage in the sun, the reality is xFIP is a good stat and like it or not, it's rare pitchers perform significantly different than their xFIP over the long term.

I would argue xFIP is superior to xERA because xERA does not normalize how many fly balls become home runs. Side note, xERA does NOT use actual balls in play, hard hit, barrel rate, launch angles or xBA data. The formula for xERA is:
((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) - (.01 * K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor)
https://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2007/02/expected_era_xera.html

xERA is essentially just FIP, which is inferior to xFIP in my opinion.

 

[ICTwin25]

I truly think Covid threw him off. He was awesome the first 8 games, but his velocity is down quite a bit since coming back. I hope he just needs a little more time to regain his strength which will hopefully then get his control back. I wasnt able to watch a lot of him yesterday, but I did see a few 89 mph 4 seamers. I'll remain optimistic on him

[wabene]

2 hours ago, ICTwin25 said:

I truly think Covid threw him off. He was awesome the first 8 games, but his velocity is down quite a bit since coming back. I hope he just needs a little more time to regain his strength which will hopefully then get his control back. I wasnt able to watch a lot of him yesterday, but I did see a few 89 mph 4 seamers. I'll remain optimistic on him

I agree with this. I finally got covid a month or so ago, damn kids!, and I had one day of a mild fever then a cold for a couple of days. Not bad. I will say I noticed that while I felt fine overall after that, my legs felt weak. Ryan was out for weeks so he is probably weaker than normal. It does appear that, at least at this stage, easy velocity and a smooth delivery work for him but are fleeting for him . Probably not making sense, but this has been my worry with him. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts.