Twins Daily Draft Preview: Connor Prielipp

[Jamie Cameron]

Alabama starting pitcher Connor Prielipp is a name who has been linked with the Twins in recent weeks ahead of the MLB Draft. Who is he? Why might the Twins draft him? Why might they go in another direction?

Over the next week leading up to July 17th, Jeremy and I will be writing more in-depth previews of ten players the Twins might take with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. On Wednesday night, Jeremy selected for the Twins in the annual Prospects Live Mock Draft, taking Connor Prielipp, a left-handed starting pitcher from the University of Alabama, so let’s start there.

 

Who is He?
Connor Prielipp is a 6’2, 210 lb. left-handed starting pitcher out of Tomah, Wisconsin. Prielipp has been on the prospect map for a while. He was the Wisconsin player of the year in 2019 and was drafted by the Red Sox in the 39th round. He fell due to concerns about his signability with a commitment to the University of Alabama in hand.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
Prielipp is the lone pitcher the Twins have been publicly connected with in the industry during the pre-draft process, most recently by MLB.com. Make no mistake, prior to his injury in 2021, he was being touted as a lock to be picked in the 5-10 range in the first round of the draft. Prielipp has a serious pedigree and a serious arsenal of pitches.

In his freshman season at Alabama, he didn’t allow a run in 21 innings of work (striking out 35) before COVID-19 halted the season. Prielipp’s slider is one of the better pitches in the entire draft (it generated close to a 50% whiff rate in college), and as we know, it’s a slider league. The pitch approaches 90 mph and has a sharp, late break. His fastball sits in the low to mid-90s. After throwing a bullpen in front of evaluators in May and at the MLB Draft Combine, many have suggested Prielipp could continue to add velocity to his fastball, with fluid, repeatable mechanics.

Prielipp also has a changeup that has not been significantly developed yet, but could be an average pitch. Add 55-grade control to this mix and you have a possible left-handed, front of the rotation starting pitcher. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls Prielipp ‘clearly the best college arm in the draft’.

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
The Derek Falvey-led front office does not have a track record of drafting college arms early. Drafting prep pitcher Chase Petty in 2021 was an extreme bucking of a trend of taking high floor, corner outfield or corner infield bat first college players. What’s different in 2022, however, is that the Twins have their highest draft selection since they took Royce Lewis number one overall in 2017.

There are two primary reasons the Twins might not take Prielipp. Firstly, the way the top of the draft board is stacked. The presumptive top seven players in the draft when looking at trends across evaluators are (in no particular order) Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, Elijah Green, Temarr Johnson, Cam Collier, Brooks Lee and Kevin Parada. If any team throws a wrench in the works and an outstanding bat on that list falls to the Twins at eight, I think they would jump at the chance.

Finally, Prielipp’s injury muddies his status significantly. As Keith Law points out ‘he could be a high-end starter, he could easily end up in the bullpen. He’s thrown so little in games that the range of his potential outcomes is huge’.

What are your thoughts on the Twins drafting Connor Prielipp? Do you think he’s a good fit for Minnesota? Would you take a chance on a limited track record? Share your thoughts in the comments.

 

 

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[Dman]

I really like the arm and he could be a dominant at the MLB level.  On the Positive side he has TJ out of the way so could be a fast mover through the system and he has a floor of elite reliever.  

On the negative side since he needed TJ already will he be durable enough to remain a starter?  If you are taking him at 8 you are expecting an ace level arm.  He doesn't have a proven changeup yet and guys don't always develop good ones.  So if ends up just a reliever I don't think that is what you want at 8.

Not that they are identical comps but Tyler Jay was a dominant relief arm that the Twins took early that they hoped could be a starter and that did not turn out well.  It is hard to convince yourself that pitchers drafted high are going to make it and work out but with all the question marks on Prielip I just can't see the Twins taking him at number 8.  I think he falls to the back half of the first round to be honest.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I like the fact that he is a lefty. But the Twins need  some catching prospects. The top  2 available are : Parada and Susac.  I hope the Twins get one of them.

[Jamie Cameron]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I really like the arm and he could be a dominant at the MLB level.  On the Positive side he has TJ out of the way so could be a fast mover through the system and he has a floor of elite reliever.  

On the negative side since he needed TJ already will he be durable enough to remain a starter?  If you are taking him at 8 you are expecting an ace level arm.  He doesn't have a proven changeup yet and guys don't always develop good ones.  So if ends up just a reliever I don't think that is what you want at 8.

Not that they are identical comps but Tyler Jay was a dominant relief arm that the Twins took early that they hoped could be a starter and that did not turn out well.  It is hard to convince yourself that pitchers drafted high are going to make it and work out but with all the question marks on Prielip I just can't see the Twins taking him at number 8.  I think he falls to the back half of the first round to be honest.

Agree with you mostly, as usual. I started with Prielipp only as Jeremy took him as the Twins pick in the prospects live draft. I think the Twins will likely pass on him. I think he'll go early to mid teens though. If you are picking in the range, think about how appealing that upside is, with slightly less risk of not being a top ten pick.

Most industry stuff still points towards a bat.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I like the fact that he is a lefty. But the Twins need  some catching prospects. The top  2 available are : Parada and Susac.  I hope the Twins get one of them.

Definitely agree that the Twins don't have good organizational depth at Catcher. However, i think the Twins are going to fall between the two you mention. Parada will be gone I think in the 4-7 range, maybe the teens for Susac.

[DocBauer]

As Dman mentioned, and I referred to yesterday, you can almost feel like you dodged a bullet with TJ surgery already "out of the way". I don't know the numbers, but I suspect repeat surgeries are a pretty low percentage.

The Twins drafted a pair of good looking young LH arms last year, plus about 4 more. So while they refused to publicly admit it, they were concentrating on an organizational weakness. Prielipp adds a tremendous amount of additional port side potential to the system. His injury doesn't bother me. It's the lack of IP. Just who does he truly project to be with a ton of talent but so little history?

Still...I'm tempted at 8 unless someone falls in to my lap. I believe the FO is OK taking chances, but risk adverse. As tempting as it may seem for at least a couple of the best arms in the draft, 8 just feels risky.

History says there will be a surprise in the first 7 and someone good will fall to us, so discussions about pitching may be a moot point.  But if it's another questionable defense bat first option at 8, I don't know that adding a pitcher with high upside wouldn't be the most prudent move.