TwinsDaily Mock Draft v2.0: Which Hitter Falls to Twins?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We're closing in on two weeks until the draft kicks off. We'll be posting almost-daily articles to help you get ready. 

Tonight: it's our second mock draft!

Let's kick it off. Without further adieu... TwinsDaily/Brewer Fanatic Mock Draft v.2.0.

1.) Orioles - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - There’s still so much uncertainty around what the Orioles may do, but, for me, Lee makes the most sense given their current set-up. They have their best prospects either in the show or on the doorstep and Lee would be able to join that group within the next couple of years. (Previous: Lee)

2.) Diamondbacks - Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep - If the Orioles take Jones first or cut a deal with Termarr Johnson, then Jackson Holliday makes sense. But in this scenario, Jones has to go. (Previous: Jones)

3.) Rangers - Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep - The Rangers will be happy if Holliday falls. They also would be thrilled to draft Kevin Parada if Holliday is gone. (Previous: Holliday)

4.) Pirates - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC - Collier has done all he can to fly up the board and though the Pirates seem to have their left side of the infield figured out, they take the best player available. (Previous: Cole Young)

5.) Nationals - Jacob Berry, DH, LSU - Interestingly enough, after being connected to Parada for so long, Berry has become the front-runner. (Previous: Kevin Parada)

6.) Marlins - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - Marlins could go with Parada or either of the two best high-school hitters left (Johnson or Green). (Previous: Elijah Green)

7.) Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep - Johnson may have the widest range of outcomes for any of the players projected to go in the Top 7, which makes you wonder even more about the Orioles (or someone else) cutting a deal with him. (Previous: Johnson)

8.) Twins - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - While it seems like the Top 7 names are relatively set (and that includes Green), the Nationals interest in Berry pushes that list to eight names and sets Green at the Twins doorstep. They also seem more destined to land a college hitter, but that top tier has been plucked from. If given the choice (right now), I’d take Connor Prielipp over Green, but I’m not making this decision (thankfully!) (Previous: Collier)

9.) Royals - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama - I had Prielipp at 14 last time (and climbing) and I don’t think the climbing is done. (Previous: Brock Porter)

10.) Rockies - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - The Rockies are in a great position to take BPA and Cross is getting a lot of love in the Top 10. (Previous: Berry)

11.) Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - The Mets will select two players in the next four picks, so they have loads of flexibility, including taking a lower-ranked player here, signing them for underslot to protect themselves from eventually losing this compensation pick and being able to push another player down to them at 14. Here though, they get the best bat available. (Previous: Jung) 

12.) Tigers - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee - We’ve really entered into the land where anything’s possible (i.e. welcome to the draft, pitchers!) But we're still going hitter here. (Previous: Susac)

13.) Angels - Brock Porter, RHP, Michigan - The odds suggest the Angels go pitcher her, but they could go with either a college or a prep one. Projecting a prep pitcher anywhere is risky; Porter is currently committed to Clemson. (Previous: Prielipp)

14.) Mets - Brandon Barriera, RHP, Florida prep - Whatever the Mets do (or don’t do) with these two Top-15 picks is likely to be one of the main headliners of the night. (Previous: Cross)

15.) Padres - Dylan Lesko, P, Georgia prep - This is still a pick that makes a ton of sense, even though the irony of having the Mets select a player with a repaired elbow is not lost on me. (Previous: Lesko)

16.) Guardians - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - Cleveland always seems to unearth great pitchers later in the draft, so instead of going that route, they’ll take the second best catcher. (Previous: Chase DeLauter)

17.) Phillies -Robby Snelling, LHP, Nevada prep - Snelling is moving up board and this is the Phillies favorite demographic, but will Snelling choose LSU and it’s new pitching coach over going pro? (Previous: Barriera)

18.) Reds - Cole Young, SS, Pennsylvania prep - The Reds don’t seem to be going for it, so taking a high school middle infielder seems about right. (Previous: Justin Crawford)

19.) A’s - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - Just like I said the first time I mocked this connection, “Yep, that makes sense.” (Previous: Neto) 

20.) Braves - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - Hughes could go earlier for sure, but the Braves have gone college pitching for a few years, so Hughes’ slide ends here. (Previous: Hughes)

21.) Mariners - Justin Crawford, OF, Nevada prep - Crawford has really impressed lately and could hear his name come off the board much earlier. (Previous: Blade Tidwell)

22.) Cardinals - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Indy ball - We’re still not seeing a ton of Rocker in mock drafts, but he’s been pitching again and well enough to hear his name called on the first day. (previous: Snelling)

23.) Blue Jays - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida - No change here. Blue Jays can add another solid bat to their stable. (Previous: Thompson)

24.) Red Sox - Tucker Toman, 3B, South Carolina prep - Red Sox have had success with prep hitters on a number of occasions. (Previous: Jett Williams)

25.) Yankees - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - If the Yankees were drafting for need, they certainly wouldn’t take an outfielder. But teams should never draft for need. (Previous: Hjerpe)

26.) White Sox - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - A midwest kid finds his way back home (sorta). (Previous: Beck)

27.) Brewers - Jett Williams, SS, Texas prep - An undersized infielder who is committed to Mississippi State. Williams is going to get by with quick, clean actions. (Previous: Rocker)

28.) Astros - Jud Fabian, OF, Florida - When I really like a match, I have a hard time changing it. (Previous: Fabian)

29.) Rays - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - No one improved their stock more in the last few weeks than Horton. (Previous: Carson Whisenhunt) 

30.) Giants - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - You could see any number of college pitchers going in the back half of the first round. Hjerpe is perhaps one of the safest of them all. (Previous: Peyton Pallette)

There it is. What do you think?
 

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[RJA]

Great article.  I love mock drafts.  They are great conversation starters.  I have three comments.  First, if the Nats do take Berry, then the Twins will have a shot at one of what are generally considered the top 7 players in the draft regardless of which one is left on the board when they pick.  I have not seen Berry listed as one of the top 7 in many mock drafts.  Second, like everyone else, I love Collier, but I think with the helium around him now there is no way he drops to 8.  Finally, like Dman and others on this site, I think highly of Neto, so if the Nats don't take Berry, I could see the Twins moving in that direction.  I am looking forward to v3.0.

[roger]

Those of us watching the game last night saw how terrible the Twins catching situation is.  Granted, this ain’t the NFL where a high #1 pick can step in and play.  But when there is a top catching prospect likely to go around the time the Twins pick, let’s hope like hell the draft God’s align and the catcher is available at #8. Then let’s hold our breath and pray the braintrust takes the catcher and not another college power bat who doesn’t own a glove.

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, roger said:

Those of us watching the game last night saw how terrible the Twins catching situation is.  Granted, this ain’t the NFL where a high #1 pick can step in and play.  But when there is a top catching prospect likely to go around the time the Twins pick, let’s hope like hell the draft God’s align and the catcher is available at #8. Then let’s hold our breath and pray the braintrust takes the catcher and not another college power bat who doesn’t own a glove.

Wholeheartedly agree that catching is a position of need. The problem is that some of the college catchers are really best at DH, which we do not need. A high ceiling pitcher (Lesko, Prielipp) or glove/ bat combo (Neto) translates to bpa for the pick. The conversations in the draft room will be plentiful. The one guy to avoid is a DH type hitter.

[Dman]

For a top 10, round 1 pick, taking a guy with an average to possibly slightly below average hit tool is not ideal so I could see Green falling to 8.  If you want a window into a guy that only needs his bat to come around to be a 5 tool player look at Keoni Cavaco as a cautionary tale. Green is incredibly talented, essentially Buxton 2.0 with suspect contact skills.  He is very young and things could change but without the bat his 4 other plus skills won't completely make up for it. 

I don't know enough about the swing and miss to know how concerning the issues really are but if Green is still there at 8 they have a tough decision to make.  If Greens hit tool does come around he is likely a perennial all star player.  He was considered as a 1, 1 pick at times early in the season until Johnson and Jones became darlings with you guessed it better bat to ball skills.  Still if he is there at 8 I would probably take on that risk as that star potential is likely too tempting to pass up.

We will see if he falls that far as most mocks have him in the top 5.  Still like I said and this mock anticipates I wouldn't be surprised to see the player with the  lowest rated hit tool fall to the guys with plus hit tools.  It makes sense because the guys with the best hit tools have the best chance of making it.  The other skills are nice and all but if you can't hit you can't move up and if you can't move up you can't make it to MLB.

Maybe someone can refresh my memory on what the grade Buxton's hit tool was.  I am not sure it was plus and he turned out just fine, but maybe he was a better hitter out of high school than I remember.  At any rate if Green falls I would bet the Twins take him over Neto.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

27 minutes ago, Dman said:

For a top 10, round 1 pick, taking a guy with an average to possibly slightly below average hit tool is not ideal so I could see Green falling to 8.  If you want a window into a guy that only needs his bat to come around to be a 5 tool player look at Keoni Cavaco as a cautionary tale. Green is incredibly talented, essentially Buxton 2.0 with suspect contact skills.  He is very young and things could change but without the bat his 4 other plus skills won't completely make up for it. 

I don't know enough about the swing and miss to know how concerning the issues really are but if Green is still there at 8 they have a tough decision to make.  If Greens hit tool does come around he is likely a perennial all star player.  He was considered as a 1, 1 pick at times early in the season until Johnson and Jones became darlings with you guessed it better bat to ball skills.  Still if he is there at 8 I would probably take on that risk as that star potential is likely too tempting to pass up.

I took part in the Prospects Live Mock Draft last night and listened to them rave about Green. In fact, at one point one of them said, "I know it says crazy, but I think a good Green comp is a more physical Byron Buxton."

They also talked about how he struggled early and since he was so well known teams may have stopped scouting him hard before he turned it around. One guy made the comment that he watched Green go 0-8 with five strikeouts but still came away impressed.

So maybe I'm selling him short too.

[Tibs]

How good is Prielipp's changeup?

[operation mindcrime]

2 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I took part in the Prospects Live Mock Draft last night and listened to them rave about Green. In fact, at one point one of them said, "I know it says crazy, but I think a good Green comp is a more physical Byron Buxton."

They also talked about how he struggled early and since he was so well known teams may have stopped scouting him hard before he turned it around. One guy made the comment that he watched Green go 0-8 with five strikeouts but still came away impressed.

So maybe I'm selling him short too.

I watched you take Prielipp! \m/

[ashbury]

Been a while since I took an independent look but I think I'd be ecstatic if we got Green.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

21 hours ago, operation mindcrime said:

I watched you take Prielipp! \m/

Green went much higher (third, I think), so it was Prielipp, Berry or Neto. (Both of those other guys dropped another ten picks I believe.) I took Prielipp not because he's connected as much to the Twins as those other guys, but because I think he has the highest ceiling of anyone else available. And the floor of a left-handed pitcher that will be mid-90s with a nasty slider and a usable changeup is also pretty high. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

22 hours ago, Tibs said:

How good is Prielipp's changeup?

Hard to say at this point. He didn't use it much in the limited amount of innings he threw collegiately. He'll be FB/SL first.