Article: Draft Board v.3.0 (4/20)

[IdahoPilgrim]

THe fantasy scenario is for Appel to fall to the Twins. I think the chances of Appel falling are a little greater than the 5% cited above because the top couple of teams just might prefer to pass on the financial demands. I would put the probability more in the range of 25%, but even with that would the Twins be the team to pull the trigger on the financial commitment? I think they would be fools to pass on Appel even with a $5 million trigger. Look at it this way. The probability of Appel being a better pitcher than the 4th-5h veteran starters we have been signing is very significant. Then, compare the cost of that prorated $5 million over 2-4 years and you see that this is the right financial move.

 

Do you think he will sign for $5M? I have my doubts - if he is willing to sign for that, he won't fall to us.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Appel's problem this year is he has no leverage. I wouldn't be surprised if his team is telling everyone that he wants their slot plus their extra, but asking a team to forfeit their 2014 first round pick is a good way to find yourself unemployed.

[cmb0252]

I want to expand, literally, on a point Jeremy made about HS pitchers. If we expand it to high school pitcher taken in the top 10 picks instead of top 5 over the past 10 years the is changes drastically.

 

2012- Max fried (7th)

2011-Bundy (4th) and Archie Bradley (7th)

2010- Tallion (2nd) and Matt Harvey (7th)

2009- Matt Hobgood (5th), Zack Wheeler (6th), and Jacob Turner (9th)

2008- None taken

2007- Jarrod Parker (9th) and Bumgarner (10th)

2006- Clayton Kershaw (7th)

2005- None taken

2004- Mark Rogers (5th) and Homer Bailey (7th)

2003- John Danish (9th)

 

Goes from 4 guys to 14. Rodgers and Hobgood being the busts that Jeremy was talking about. On a side note, when the Os drafted Hobgood at 5 it was considered a giant reach and he wasn't even on some experts top 50 lists. Turner isn't a bust yet but if he doesn't figure things out soon he might join Hobgood and Rogers.

 

Outside of those three the rest of the list looks pretty solid. Tallion, Fried, Bundy, and Bradley are all top prospect with ace potential. Harvey and Wheeler have had pretty impressive starts to their young careers. Parker and Bailey took longer then expected but put up impressive WARs last year of 3.9 and 2.5. Kershaw and Bumgarner are sort of good and while John Danks pitched poorly last year he owns a career WAR of 19.6.

[drjim]

Good analysis (though Harvey was a college pick).

 

I'm still a little uncomfortable jumping to those type of conclusions on such a small sample. Each draft class is unique.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Pretty good success from picks 6-10, I'd say. In fact, I might suggest that, judging by that list, taking a high school pitcher in the Top 10 has a shockingly high success rate.

 

I would say Stewart isn't quite Archie Bradley, who - I was told - would be the top talent in this draft.

[cmb0252]

Good analysis (though Harvey was a college pick).

 

I'm still a little uncomfortable jumping to those type of conclusions on such a small sample. Each draft class is unique.

 

Crap, Harvey was a college guy....my bad! Still, pretty solid group if pitchers. I'm all for Stewart at 4.

[cmb0252]

Pretty good success from picks 6-10, I'd say. In fact, I might suggest that, judging by that list, taking a high school pitcher in the Top 10 has a shockingly high success rate.

 

I would say Stewart isn't quite Archie Bradley, who - I was told - would be the top talent in this draft.

 

I completely agree Jeremy. I was actually surprised about the success rate. While I agree Bradley is a better overall prospect than Stewart, I think Stewart might have a higher upside. After seeing him pitch live I think if you fix his mechanics he can eventually hit 100. I'm not a professional scout but he is already hitting 96-97 with flawed mechanics.

[kab21]

Fixing flawed mechanics sounds like changing a gf/bf. Perhaps those mechanics can be smoothed out but I think you largely get what you see.

 

Typically when I hear about mechanics being fixed it leads to a lower velocity actually. that might sound like the opposite from what you expect but usually improved mechanics usually are targeting improved control and/or better movement. Taking a little velocity off of the fastball can help with both of those. If his physical projection balances out those losses then he's still throwing in the low to mid 90's with a devastating slider. Now if he can develop just an average change then you have a potential ace.

 

Right now Stewart and Bryant are moving to the top of the 2nd tier (behind Gray/Appel). I have already said why I'm concerned about Manaea and Meadows/Frazier haven't put them into the buxton level of prospect. Denney is kind of a wild card and I haven't dug too deep into Moran but I will over the next couple of weeks.

[cmb0252]

I don't think this comes as a surprise but the Chicago Sun Times has confirmed the Cubs are taking either Appel or Gray with the number 2 pick.

"Team sources have said for weeks that they expect one of those power pitchers will be the Cubs’ selection — possibly coming down to whichever one isn’t selected by the Houston Astros with the No. 1 pick."

 

From manager Dale Sveum

‘Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys,’’ Sveum said.

 

Article link below:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/19719803-573/cubs-plan-to-use-no-2-pick-on-mark-appel-or-jonathan-gray.html

 

This isn't the NFL draft so no reason to create smoke screens.

[drivlikejehu]

Jim Callis I think has Manaea at #4, and there are other commentators that still like him quite a bit as well. The fact his stuff was sharper in the Cape might mean the Twins could get him back on track.

 

Stewart is only in the conversation because of how weak this draft is. He doesn't fit the profile of a #4 pick... the risk level is just too high. I'm not a scout, so maybe he will ultimately be the least bad option, but I hope a college player pans out there.

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis I think has Manaea at #4, and there are other commentators that still like him quite a bit as well. The fact his stuff was sharper in the Cape might mean the Twins could get him back on track.

 

Stewart is only in the conversation because of how weak this draft is. He doesn't fit the profile of a #4 pick... the risk level is just too high. I'm not a scout, so maybe he will ultimately be the least bad option, but I hope a college player pans out there.

 

BA and Crawford have Manaea at 6, Law has him at 4, and Mayo (even though his is rather old) at 3. In both Callis' and Law's chats they have said they would be surprised if the Twins didn't take one of the college pitchers at 4.

 

Crawford had an interesting take on Manaea in his What to Watch:

For most pitchers, a 1.57 ERA with 72 strike outs in 57 innings would be an incredible achievement. Scouts, though, have wanted to see a little more from Manaea. His velocity hasn’t been quite as consistent as it was on the Cape last summer and he hasn’t dominated the way some expected him to against a weak slate of opponents. He’s clearly fallen behind Appel and Gray as the best pitcher on the board, and there’s not much he can show in a start against Tennessee-Martin to change anyone’s mind.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Manaea is still dealing with a nagging hip issue. He won't be pitching this weekend.

 

Its a good thing the Twins have such a fine medical staff, cause his records will need to be gone over with a fine-toothed comb.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Star Tribune reported this morning that Red Wing's Ryan Boldt injured his knee on Friday and will be examined on Monday.

 

It's unknown whether the injury is minor or major. When healthy, Boldt is a first-round pick.

[cmb0252]

Boldt gets a lot of comparisons to Rockies first rounder David Dahl. Doesn't have any 70s but has a chance to have a lot of 60s and is a true center fielder.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Boldt gets a lot of comparisons to Rockies first rounder David Dahl. Doesn't have any 70s but has a chance to have a lot of 60s and is a true center fielder.

 

He's longer through the zone, and throws right-handed, but I think Boldt can be a Denard Span-type guy. A solid, top-of-the-order hitter. And hopefully no makeup issues (like Dahl).

[cmb0252]

There is a ton of solid pitching that will be around, college and HS, in the second round but boldt might be too good to pass up if he is there at 43. The Twins love their toolsy outfielders. I know most people here like him because he is from Minnesota but just like Windle/Anderson I could careless where they are from. I just want high upside talent and that definitely fits boldt.

[cmb0252]

Via Christopher Crawford on boldt:

 

"You feel for the kid, but now taking him early is a huge risk," one crosschecker said. "We have so little on him as it is because of [Minnesota's] late start to the season, and now there's a chance he might not play again this season. You're basically basing your scouting reports on what you saw in 2012 and over the summer, and so much can change between then and now. I don't care how many 60s [on the 20-80 scouting scale] the kid might have, that's a risk that I don't know if I would take in the first round."