Managerial questions

[Epravens]

I would politely point out to Mr. Baldelli that past performance can, in fact, indicate future success.  It is my humble opinion that leaving a 102MPH heater idling in the bullpen in a game that was critical to win was perhaps an unwise decision and it is why his WAR as the Twins manager is currently -43. Go Twins!

[cHawk]

I mean if he were to run the 102MPH heater out in the 8th, he would still need someone to pitch the 9th. Because Pagan blew the lead, there was no Bottom of the 9th. Now maybe Duran could pitch both the 8th and the 9th, but he’s only pitched multiple innings 7 times in 26 appearances this year. I don’t think it’s fair to criticize Baldelli for not counting on Duran to pitch two innings. 

Also you do not know that Baldelli is a detriment to the Twins. Managers are not as big of a part of the equation in the modern game as you might think. There are many other coaches and personnel that all play a part. If you want to criticize him for the bullpen meltdowns, please consider the fact that he only has 2-3 reliable bullpen arms to work with. That’s not his fault.

[Doctor Gast]

22 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I mean if he were to run the 102MPH heater out in the 8th, he would still need someone to pitch the 9th. Because Pagan blew the lead, there was no Bottom of the 9th. Now maybe Duran could pitch both the 8th and the 9th, but he’s only pitched multiple innings 7 times in 26 appearances this year. I don’t think it’s fair to criticize Baldelli for not counting on Duran to pitch two innings. 

Also you do not know that Baldelli is a detriment to the Twins. Managers are not as big of a part of the equation in the modern game as you might think. There are many other coaches and personnel that all play a part. If you want to criticize him for the bullpen meltdowns, please consider the fact that he only has 2-3 reliable bullpen arms to work with. That’s not his fault.

Good point. Yet I'd pitch Pagan in the situation like last night other than this situation. And have someone I'd trust more to pitch the 7th & 8th and leave the 9th for Duran if I'd doubt that Duran could go 8th & 9th.

[cHawk]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

Good point. Yet I'd pitch Pagan in the situation like last night other than this situation. And have someone I'd trust more to pitch the 7th & 8th and leave the 9th for Duran if I'd doubt that Duran could go 8th & 9th.

I agree with you, I wouldn’t trust Pagan in the 8th Inning of a 1-run game. I would’ve used Thielbar in the 8th and then Duran in the 9th.

[Vanimal46]

I would love to find out if Rocco really is an issue with 4-5 good options to choose from in the bullpen. Currently he has 1.5 good options. Jax is trending the right way but far from proven. 

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I would’ve used Thielbar in the 8th

They eventually had to go to him.  But you'd have had Plan A be to use the lefty against the batting lineup set for a lefty starter?

[cHawk]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would love to find out if Rocco really is an issue with 4-5 good options to choose from in the bullpen. Currently he has 1.5 good options. Jax is trending the right way but far from proven. 

I think we can trust Jax with a 2.80 ERA over 25 appearances. Outside of Jax, Thielbar, and Duran, the Twins need 1-2 more relievers at the deadline.

[Doctor Gast]

16 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I agree with you, I wouldn’t trust Pagan in the 8th Inning of a 1-run game. I would’ve used Thielbar in the 8th and then Duran in the 9th.

IMO Thielbar is iffy also, I wouldn't trust him much more than Pagan (although he was able to clean up Pagan mess). I couldn't watch the game but wasn't Jax rolling along in the 7th? why not leave him in for another inning? Last year he was a starter, I believe he could handle to pitch an extra inning. That's how I'd do it.

[wsnydes]

Echoing what @Vanimal46said, there simply aren't enough good options to rely on in the bullpen.  That's not Rocco's fault.  Any of them can implode at any time.  I don't necessarily disagree with him relying on veterans like Pagan more, but they've proven that they can't be trusted in late game scenarios.  That said, you can't trot out the same 2 guys every night and expect that to be sustainable over a 162 game season.  It's just not going to happen.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Also, if we believe what we read it sounds like Wes Johnson had a lot of input in bullpen usage decisions. I'm curious if he was smitten with Pagan or if it's really even Baldelli. We'll find out when Johnson leaves. 

This may be too much ot hope for, but does Pagan have any options left? If not, isn't it possible that he is injured, can go on the Il and then do a rehab assignment? He needs to experiment with his new grip at AAAA  for awhile. 

[Doctor Gast]

Right now we can't trust short relief except Duran. We need Jax, Cotton & Thornburg to go multiple innings to hand it over to Duran. And we need another closer to make up for the one we lost.

Pagan could become a good closer once he develops a bulldog mentality but until then, keep him in low leverage situations.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This may be too much ot hope for, but does Pagan have any options left?

I think he could be sent down, yes, with one option remaining.  I was expecting he had accrued too much service time and could refuse a demotion, but he appears to be under the wire on that, too.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We need Jax, Cotton & Thornburg to go multiple innings

I just don't see how this is a plan that stands a chance of success.

[Doctor Gast]

19 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I just don't see how this is a plan that stands a chance of success.

I don't except what others tell me is wrong but what makes sense, Jax, Cotton and Thornburg have proven that they can go multiple innings and I believe they'd do better in long relief if given proper time to prepare than short relief. The problem is long relief doesn't fit into Baldelli's vocabulary and he tries to fit all RPs into short relief. IMO that's a very grave mistake and is doomed. I won't get used to disappointment because I have hope that Baldelli (or who is responsible) can change his mind, for the Twins sake.

[Epravens]

2 hours ago, cHawk said:

I mean if he were to run the 102MPH heater out in the 8th, he would still need someone to pitch the 9th. Because Pagan blew the lead, there was no Bottom of the 9th. Now maybe Duran could pitch both the 8th and the 9th, but he’s only pitched multiple innings 7 times in 26 appearances this year. I don’t think it’s fair to criticize Baldelli for not counting on Duran to pitch two innings. 

Also you do not know that Baldelli is a detriment to the Twins. Managers are not as big of a part of the equation in the modern game as you might think. There are many other coaches and personnel that all play a part. If you want to criticize him for the bullpen meltdowns, please consider the fact that he only has 2-3 reliable bullpen arms to work with. That’s not his fault.

My issues with the Twins manager run much deeper than his often questionable decisions regarding the pitching staff. His teams would consistently receive low marks for fundamentals, situational hitting and the manufacture of runs and those are areas that fall directly on the manager and his staff (and he is responsible for his staff). Good managers can steal games because their teams can beat you with mosquito bites. In close games that matters over a long season, which is a big reason why his WAR is -43.

[cHawk]

8 minutes ago, Epravens said:

My issues with the Twins manager run much deeper than his often questionable decisions regarding the pitching staff. His teams would consistently receive low marks for fundamentals, situational hitting and the manufacture of runs and those are areas that fall directly on the manager and his staff (and he is responsible for his staff). Good managers can steal games because their teams can beat you with mosquito bites. In close games that matters over a long season, which is a big reason why his WAR is -43.

The key words here are “and his staff.” And “his staff” is a lot of coaches. If you want to blame the coaching staff as a whole, I can see where you’re coming from, even though I disagree. But you can’t pin all of that on the manager.

Baldelli was also a very fundamentally sound player when he played the game. I don’t believe the bad fundamentals are coming from him.

The situational hitting issues and the run manufacturing issues do not fall on the manager, they fall on the hitting coach, Edgar Varela. Baldelli’s team did not struggle with either of those two things in 2019 when the hitting coach was James Rowson. I don’t believe the offense is a Baldelli problem.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, cHawk said:

The key words here are “and his staff.” And “his staff” is a lot of coaches. If you want to blame the coaching staff as a whole, I can see where you’re coming from, even though I disagree. But you can’t pin all of that on the manager.

Baldelli was also a very fundamentally sound player when he played the game. I don’t believe the bad fundamentals are coming from him.

The situational hitting issues and the run manufacturing issues do not fall on the manager, they fall on the hitting coach, Edgar Varela. Baldelli’s team did not struggle with either of those two things in 2019 when the hitting coach was James Rowson. I don’t believe the offense is a Baldelli problem.

The Manfred ball has suppressed home runs and scores across the MLB have dropped. We’ve seen many articles over the years of managers complain that players don’t learn the fundamentals in minor league ball (from many organizations not just the Twins).

And there was this article from 2018 about why no one steals anymore. The point is the game adjusted to the live ball.

now that the ball is dead again, maybe steals and situational hitting comes back.

we saw the TD article about all the steals in the Twins minor league system. Seems like Times, They Are A’Changin

[TheBoofIsLoose]

4 hours ago, Epravens said:

 it is why his WAR as the Twins manager is currently -43.

Where are you getting that stat from? I'm actually curious because Manager WAR seems to be nonsense; how would you even determine what a replacement level manager is? How would you quantify both the on and off-field decisions that every manager makes? Also, you're telling me that a replacement level manager would be worth 43 more wins since 2019? That essentially equates to mean the Twins should have averaged winning 106 games a year, which seems an  extraordinarily generous interpretation of the facts.

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, TheBoofIsLoose said:

Where are you getting that stat from? I'm actually curious because Manager WAR seems to be nonsense; how would you even determine what a replacement level manager is? How would you quantify both the on and off-field decisions that every manager makes? Also, you're telling me that a replacement level manager would be worth 43 more wins since 2019? That essentially equates to mean the Twins should have averaged winning 106 games a year, which seems an  extraordinarily generous interpretation of the facts.

He's just ripping the lid off the conspiracy that WAR is, which was invented to make up numbers that show bad baseball players to be good.  Takes courage.

[Epravens]

1 hour ago, TheBoofIsLoose said:

Where are you getting that stat from? I'm actually curious because Manager WAR seems to be nonsense; how would you even determine what a replacement level manager is? How would you quantify both the on and off-field decisions that every manager makes? Also, you're telling me that a replacement level manager would be worth 43 more wins since 2019? That essentially equates to mean the Twins should have averaged winning 106 games a year, which seems an  extraordinarily generous interpretation of the facts.

It is based on being a very astute observer and noting that a replacement, virtually any replacement who manages at the professional level, would have won 43 more games during his tenure. Not to question your math skills but last year he was -15 which would have placed them at 88-74, or on the cusp of the post season. Not 106 and whatever. But varying opinions make the world go 'round and enjoyed the discussion. Thank you

[Epravens]

2 hours ago, cHawk said:

The key words here are “and his staff.” And “his staff” is a lot of coaches. If you want to blame the coaching staff as a whole, I can see where you’re coming from, even though I disagree. But you can’t pin all of that on the manager.

Baldelli was also a very fundamentally sound player when he played the game. I don’t believe the bad fundamentals are coming from him.

The situational hitting issues and the run manufacturing issues do not fall on the manager, they fall on the hitting coach, Edgar Varela. Baldelli’s team did not struggle with either of those two things in 2019 when the hitting coach was James Rowson. I don’t believe the offense is a Baldelli problem.

 

2 minutes ago, Epravens said:

It is based on being a very astute observer and noting that a replacement, virtually any replacement who manages at the professional level, would have won 43 more games during his tenure. Not to question your math skills but last year he was -15 which would have placed them at 88-74, or on the cusp of the post season. Not 106 and whatever. But varying opinions make the world go 'round and enjoyed the discussion. Thank you

 

2 hours ago, cHawk said:

The key words here are “and his staff.” And “his staff” is a lot of coaches. If you want to blame the coaching staff as a whole, I can see where you’re coming from, even though I disagree. But you can’t pin all of that on the manager.

Baldelli was also a very fundamentally sound player when he played the game. I don’t believe the bad fundamentals are coming from him.

The situational hitting issues and the run manufacturing issues do not fall on the manager, they fall on the hitting coach, Edgar Varela. Baldelli’s team did not struggle with either of those two things in 2019 when the hitting coach was James Rowson. I don’t believe the offense is a Baldelli problem.

Did you ever have the pleasure of attending a spring training workout, that's workout not game, during TK's tenure? Fundamentals over and over and over again. And it showed during the season. Being a disciple of TK'd, Gardy ran a similar program and it also showed during the season. Under Mr. Baldelli not so much. And yes the manager is completely responsible for his staff.

[Aggies7]

3 hours ago, Epravens said:

My issues with the Twins manager run much deeper than his often questionable decisions regarding the pitching staff. His teams would consistently receive low marks for fundamentals, situational hitting and the manufacture of runs and those are areas that fall directly on the manager and his staff (and he is responsible for his staff). Good managers can steal games because their teams can beat you with mosquito bites. In close games that matters over a long season, which is a big reason why his WAR is -43.

I agree, the twins have been poor on the fundamentals for years now. Just today there were at least 3 plays that were nothing more than bad fundamentals (safety squeeze fiasco took the cake). Usually that falls on the manager but apparently some here think Rocco is beyond criticism. And I could understand that with all the postseason success his teams have had 

[cHawk]

4 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I agree, the twins have been poor on the fundamentals for years now. Just today there were at least 3 plays that were nothing more than bad fundamentals (safety squeeze fiasco took the cake). Usually that falls on the manager but apparently some here think Rocco is beyond criticism. And I could understand that with all the postseason success his teams have had 

But does it though? I think it falls on the coaching staff as a whole, not just the manager. Maybe I’m wrong, IDK.

[TheBoofIsLoose]

32 minutes ago, Epravens said:

It is based on being a very astute observer and noting that a replacement, virtually any replacement who manages at the professional level, would have won 43 more games during his tenure. Not to question your math skills but last year he was -15 which would have placed them at 88-74, or on the cusp of the post season. Not 106 and whatever. But varying opinions make the world go 'round and enjoyed the discussion. Thank you

Math was never my strong suit, but a 43 game win swing for Rocco's managerial career would put his record at 295-164 or a 64% winning percentage, which over the course of a 162 game season averages to around 105-106 wins a year. But this is irrelevant because we can't be making up statistics and pretending that they have a basis in reality; Manager WAR simply doesn't exist.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, TheBoofIsLoose said:

Math was never my strong suit, but a 43 game win swing for Rocco's managerial career would put his record at 295-164 or a 64% winning percentage, which over the course of a 162 game season averages to around 105-106 wins a year. But this is irrelevant because we can't be making up statistics and pretending that they have a basis in reality; Manager WAR simply doesn't exist.

I won't check your math but it's more dire than that.  WAR means comparing to some moderately terrible substitute you pick up off the scrap heap.  Rocco being below zero means your 105 win mark is something the team roster itself was capable of and that any scrap heap manager could have achieved.  An average manager, apparently, would have guided our collection of stars to, say, 115 wins, while a HOF caliber skipper could have wrung 125 wins or thereabouts from them.  All this even when the roster contains the likes of Blake Parker and Ryan LaMarre.

This of course is giving a clearly flippant remark more serious consideration than it deserves.  But it's where it leads.

[a-wan]

33 minutes ago, TheBoofIsLoose said:

Math was never my strong suit, but a 43 game win swing for Rocco's managerial career would put his record at 295-164 or a 64% winning percentage, which over the course of a 162 game season averages to around 105-106 wins a year. But this is irrelevant because we can't be making up statistics and pretending that they have a basis in reality; Manager WAR simply doesn't exist.

This. If you're going to be a hot takes guy, can you at least be funny while making stuff up?

[Mike Sixel]

On pace to win 92 games, two of three years winning the division, and people come here every day to say he's stupid. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Epravens said:

 

 

Did you ever have the pleasure of attending a spring training workout, that's workout not game, during TK's tenure? Fundamentals over and over and over again. And it showed during the season. Being a disciple of TK'd, Gardy ran a similar program and it also showed during the season. Under Mr. Baldelli not so much. And yes the manager is completely responsible for his staff.

I loved Tom Kelly.

But we’re talking about the same Tom Kelly who’s fundamentally strong teams had 10 losing seasons in 16 years right?

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

On pace to win 92 games, two of three years winning the division, and people come here every day to say he's stupid. 

Stupid? No. A good manager? Certainly debatable. Some here think managers are overrated but also point out his overall record as a reason why he’s above harsh criticism. Not saying you said this but it’s been said here before

[a-wan]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I loved Tom Kelly.

But we’re talking about the same Tom Kelly who’s fundamentally strong teams had 10 losing seasons in 16 years right?

But damnit the teams lost by always running hard, and having unbelievable pitcher fielding fundamentals.