Identifying Prospects the Twins Could Move at the Trade Dealine

[Matt Braun]

The incoming July month marks two important dates: the Fourth of July and the trade deadline. The first is an American celebration of freedom and liberty, where all across the political spectrum eschew their governmental criticisms and appreciate the uniquely American pastime of blowing your hand off in a firework accident. The second is a time when contending teams acquire relievers. 

My secretary is informing me that the trade deadline is actually August 2nd, but because I’ve already written the previous paragraph, and because I found it funny, I will ignore that.

There has recently been a weird but unsurprising defeatist mentality amongst Twins fans. Some have asked not what the Twins can do to improve at the deadline, but instead which veterans they can deal to consolidate their losses and give it another try next season. I disagree entirely with this notion. The Twins are a good baseball team lacking an extra arm, or two, or three, but acquiring those necessary few players is easily doable. Here are some of the prospects they may give up to do so.

Matt Wallner

It will be hard to part with a Minnesota boy, but the team may have to do it. Wallner stands at the crossroads of an excellent 2022 season and a weird position fit for the team in the future. There’s no shortage of young left-handed power-hitting outfielders on the Twins, making fate the beholder for any potential playing time for Wallner; his spot is far from saved. 

Wallner is a legitimate prospect as well; Fangraphs gives him a 45 FV rating—a number that doesn’t blow anyone away but does represent a quality player with MLB potential. After all, Luis Arraez was just a 40+ FV prospect according to the same website. When drawing up trades, it’s easy to clump up the bottom of the barrel (Brent Rooker and Nick Gordon for Luis Castillo, anyone?) in a foolish attempt at swindling grown men out of their other, more talented grown men. That doesn’t happen in this era of MLB. Wallner alone will not net Frankie Montas, but he could be the 2nd best piece in a package deal for him or a starter like him.

The only thing that could make teams shy away from Wallner is that he may be too MLB-ready. Remember, out-of-contention organizations like the Athletics hate spending money even more than they hate their own fans, and they don’t like holding on to a player who will be arbitration-eligible around the time they’re supposed to compete again.

Cole Sands

Like Wallner, whether a team wants Cole Sands depends on how much they’re willing to pay a player more than the vet minimum. Still, Sands is an awkward fit on the Twins. He has potential—that sweeping breaking ball is something vicious—but are they willing to throw him to the major league wolves and potentially take losses in exchange for learning experiences? A team out of contention can say yes, but the answer is far trickier for the Twins.

Sands is similar to Wallner in that he will likely be the 2nd best piece if the trade is of the big-splash variety. 

College Arm in the Low Minors

This is cheating, but I make the rules, so I get to break them at will. The Twins have a glut of recently-drafted college arms laying waste to hitters in the low minors (hey, someone should write about that), and the team may dangle one in front of a team looking for the most sought-after commodity in sports: a young starting pitcher.

I think the team will avoid bringing up Cade Povich in talks, but Brent Headrick, David Festa, and Travis Adams could be the lotto tickets necessary to coax an elite reliever out of another organization.

Players the Team Will Not Move

Remember, this is theorizing, not prophecizing; I have no idea which prospects the Twins covet and secretly loathe. 

I have a hard time seeing the team move Austin Martin; he’s both significantly underperforming and a crucial cog in their return for José Berríos. If the team liked him enough to part ways with their best homegrown starter in a generation, then I don’t see them reversing course so soon.

Spencer Steer is another player I don’t see the team parting ways with unless the return is massive. Gio Urshela is a stop-gap to nowhere, and Jose Miranda should avoid playing 3rd base as much as possible. Steer fits so perfectly in the team’s plan for next season that dealing him would make little sense.

Final player: Marco Raya. This is even more speculation-y than before, but he feels anointed by the Twins to be the next Berríos. A team would have to make an overwhelmingly generous offer to convince the team to trade him away, and sellers usually aren’t the ones to make such concessions.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I concur these prospect are expendable but their value aren't that great yet so IMO they'd be a 3rd piece to a trade.

[FlyingFinn]

Strotman and Henriquez - okay, okay, I'm just cleaning up the 40 man and we may only get a couple rosin bags in return.

I think the Twins have a glut of good players who will need to be put on the 40 man or be subject to being plucked by another team this winter. Figure out who we aren't adding to the 40 man and some other teams may be glad to have them in return for a relief pitcher who could help us this year.

Also, we seem to have too many quality players who play 2B and/or 3B (Martin, Julien, Javier, CES, Steer, Miranda not to mention Beckham and Helman) while still having Arraez and Polanco. This is where I think another team may be willing to give up a more quality RP for one of these guys.

[Sean.h]

I agree that the team is likely to double down on Martin, but as much as I like Raya and Steer, they are movable for the right return. As to Wallner, yes he needs to be moved, but won't net much. I don't get why they keep drafting these types of bat-first strike-out prone hitters in the first round (when they already have enough "depth" in that department).

[Tim]

Poivch and Festa are in the same tier and I think Festa might even be a notch above. Thing is teams want guys we dont want to put in a deal .... I'd move Miranda, Steer, Martin, Miler, and SWR for the right player. Lewis, Winder, Raya, Rodriguez, and Canterino i would prefer to keep.

[RJA]

The real question is who among the top prospects already in the major or close the Twins would have to give up.  If the Twins are serious about netting a top end starter like Castillo or Montas, none of the players mentioned will even tilt the scales.  Teams are going to ask for Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, Winder, Canterino, etc., especially for players with a year and a half of team control.  There will always be lottery tickets and second pieces added but teams are going to want player/s in the top 5 or 10 with lots of years of control.

[Old fox]

Miami I feel offers a very strong partner with the Twins to improve the Twins Issues. And the improve the Marlins issues. The Twins get either Lopez or Cabrera sp and Bass for the Bullpen. Marlins get Martin and Wallner & Cavaco. 

 

[MTV]

Wallner, Varland—homegrown talents that shouldn’t be traded at all, especially with their recent success.

Winder, Canterino, Balazovic—3 future stars of the rotation, shouldn’t be moved if the Twins want a good future.

Austin Martin, Simeon Woods-Richardson—both have struggled at some point with the Twins and their futures look shaky, if teams see enough value in them for a trade, go ahead. Along with that, this may be their best time to trade them, who knows. 

Lewis, Steer, Rodriguez, Hajjar—have performed too well to be a smaller part of a trade. Will either be the front-runner of a trade or will stay in the system.

Miller, Urbina, Medina—futures are far away and if they make enough trade value deal them. 
 

Henriquez, Sabato, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Cavaco—not top-tier prospects and play at positions with more high-caliber talent currently either with the Twins or in the farm system, look disposable. 
 

Larnach, Ober, Kepler, Urshela—look movable if they make enough of a return. 
 

Miranda, Kirilloff, Arraez—too high-value offensive players to move, unless asking price is monumental.

[mikelink45]

I have no idea - I know there are trade calculators out there that can measure value and some of these posts have done a really good job ranking prospects, but it really depends on the team we are trading with.  Who do we want and who do they want?  

I know we have a glut of 2B, but so do many other teams - it seems like 1B and 2B and LF are the low ranking positions where players drop to if they do not have the talent to hold the premium positions.  That makes trading our surplus less valuable.  

The other question I have based on the posts here - is why does it have to be a bad team we trade with.  What about a good but flawed team that can use a Polanco/Kepler/throw in Sano/Urshela and have a nice surplus arm or two?

[High heat]

I feel Miranda is being groomed to be moved! 
 

he obviously isn’t preferred over Urshela at 3B, I think the defense isn’t that good. He is given at bats in favorable matchups. 
 

You still have Urshela next season and you also have Steers in AAA. I’m for moving Miranda for a solid multi yr return.

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Strotman and Henriquez - okay, okay, I'm just cleaning up the 40 man and we may only get a couple rosin bags in return.

I think the Twins have a glut of good players who will need to be put on the 40 man or be subject to being plucked by another team this winter. Figure out who we aren't adding to the 40 man and some other teams may be glad to have them in return for a relief pitcher who could help us this year.

Also, we seem to have too many quality players who play 2B and/or 3B (Martin, Julien, Javier, CES, Steer, Miranda not to mention Beckham and Helman) while still having Arraez and Polanco. This is where I think another team may be willing to give up a more quality RP for one of these guys.

These 8 prospects are candidates to be added to the 40-man, IMO.

Simeon Woods-Richardson    
Spencer Steer
Matt Wallner
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Blayne Enlow    
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 

The 7 players below are on the 40-man but could be dropped at the end of the season depending on how the rest of the year goes for them.

Yennier Cano / Jharel Cotton / Danny Columbe / Ronny Henriguez / Trevor Megill / Jovani Moran / Jose Godoy.
 

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

These 8 prospects are candidates to be added to the 40-man, IMO.

Simeon Woods-Richardson    
Spencer Steer
Matt Wallner
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Blayne Enlow    
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 

The 7 players below are on the 40-man but could be dropped at the end of the season depending on how the rest of the year goes for them.

Yennier Cano / Jharel Cotton / Danny Columbe / Ronny Henriguez / Trevor Megill / Jovani Moran / Jose Godoy.
 

Good list with a small correction. Enlow is already on the 40 man. I’d add him to the list of people on the 40 who could be dropped in the offseason. 

[bunsen82]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

These 8 prospects are candidates to be added to the 40-man, IMO.

Simeon Woods-Richardson    
Spencer Steer
Matt Wallner
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Blayne Enlow    
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 

The 7 players below are on the 40-man but could be dropped at the end of the season depending on how the rest of the year goes for them.

Yennier Cano / Jharel Cotton / Danny Columbe / Ronny Henriguez / Trevor Megill / Jovani Moran / Jose Godoy.
 

Pretty sure SWR would have 5 years so is not rule V eligible until next year would have signed when 18.  might be wrong on that.  

[bunsen82]

Also I think Isola, Helman Palacios, Hamilton Schulfer and Camargo would need to be protected as well.  I don't think all those players will be picked in a rule V but 4 to 5 are definitely at risk.  To me we need to trade 3-4 prospects from those eligible or already on the 40 man to open up spots.   

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Pretty sure SWR would have 5 years so is not rule V eligible until next year would have signed when 18.  might be wrong on that.  

According to Fan Graphs he is eligible at the end of this year.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

According to Fan Graphs he is eligible at the end of this year.

Thats interesting,  must have been wrong when he signed.   

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Thats interesting,  must have been wrong when he signed.   

I would imagine Fangraphs is not 100% reliable but it's easy to miss.  I thought Isola was next year and he is eligible at the end of the year.  He is interesting and I would have to think they need to protect him.  I also missed Palacios who definitely needs to go on.  He has really stepped up since getting a taste of MLB.  He is hitting 316 with an OPS of 888 over the past 5 weeks.  

[jorgenswest]

Which? They are allowed to move any of them.

They need to move whatever it takes to acquire the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline as well as a Rogers caliber reliever.

 

[tony&rodney]

Every prospect should be movable. 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with Tony & Rodney:  Every prospect is movable.  It always comes down to what you are getting back.  

[Toferob]

Wallner and Povich are my guys I don't want traded.