Chris Archer, Iron Man?

[PopRiveter]

On June 1, the TD news page featured this article…

I didn’t agree with the opinion suggested by the headline even then, but one month later, it’s hard to imagine posting that article today.

Since this, he’s thrown 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA in June. He’s now started more games than any other Twins pitcher and has thrown the second most innings on the team.

There has been some concern associated with his underlying number (see his 4.72 FIP), but he keeps looking better and better in my opinion. He’s been getting a lot of outs by means of weak contact. That always makes a pitcher’s FIP look worse than his results, but it also makes for a much more efficient pitcher as long as he keeps the ball in the park, which he has.

I have not been supportive of limiting his pitch count so conservatively, but what they are doing is paying off and here we are, about to enter July, and the strategy has resulted in 57 1/3 innings and a starter who seems to keep trending upward. I have to give props.

[Rosterman]

The hope is that by limiting all this use of the starters, they can pitch successfully thru the season...and looks like it is paying off. I hope ALL the rotation arms will now approach the 100 pitch mark consistently.

Lots of off days in July (due to the All-Star break). The Twins may be one of the stronmger teams coming out of the break, if Ober can come back, with Winder in reserve. Of course, Ober coming back means someone's role changes.

 

[Linus]

I strongly dislike veteran reclamation projects as an acquisition strategy but Archer is working out quite. And he seems to be getting better each time out. At this rate they could get 130 innings out of the guy which would be huge. Plus he seems like a really good dude. 
Even Bundy has contributed. I mean he has really stunk in some games but he has thrown several good games making him a pretty typical #5 starter.

[TheLeviathan]

This signing has been a total win.  Say what you want about his innings, if you would tell me we'd have gotten this many good starts (even 4 inning ones) out of this guy....I'd sign this contract again and twice on Sunday.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagreed with the premise of that story when it published and my opinion certainly hasn’t changed. It didn’t take any time at all to see Archer’s stuff was back, which means he’s a valuable pitcher to have on the roster. 

[Doctor Gast]

I really appreciate your article Popriveter, I've been a Archer supporter and advocate for the Twins to obtain Archer since TB wanted to move him. All that negative PIT hype is bogus. This year seemed like the perfect time to sign him. I've been 100% supportive in how they been managing him and it has paid off. It has been frustrating to see him pitch 4 quality innings and not get credit for it. But now he's able to put up 5 and constantly improve.

Archer had been a iron man before his shoulder problems and he is working himself back. IDK how much he can retain of that iron man stamina he once personafided but I know he'll defintely give it all he has. 

His FB & slider is still very good and his change-up is above average. Again I'd love to see Santana perfect his circle change-up yet I think it could be a successful SO pitch right now to mix in with his other pitches. 

Many Twins fans have written Archer off even before he threw his 1st pitch and have tried to make a case to do so through out his time here. The orignal goal is to get Archer ready for post season, it's not half way yet and IMO he'll be ready. He has been a positive influence on this club on & off the field  and should be extended beyond this year.

[TwinsDr2021]

Archer has been a glorified long relief pitcher and for the innings he has been asked to throw he has done his job well. The term Iron Man shouldn't be thrown around when talking about any pitcher on the Twins staff (at least not yet) because they aren't asked to be that.

[terrydactyls]

For the past several weeks, I think I would rank Archer, Smelzer, and Bundy as or op here pitching performers.  I never would have predicted that when the season started.  It should not remain that way as Gray and Ryan return to form, but it has been a pleasure for me to see those three step up.  Now, about the sporadic hitting......?????

[PopRiveter]

30 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The term Iron Man shouldn't be thrown around when talking about any pitcher on the Twins staff (at least not yet) because they aren't asked to be that.

Yeah, “Iron Man” wasn’t meant in a genuine, straightforward way. Blyleven and Morris probably throw up in their mouths a little when they see that a 4/5 inning starter is a close second on the team in innings pitched.

My perception was that Archer’s been so limited by his usage plan, but the reality was that the plan has kept him on the mound more than all but one fellow Twin. That’s what I aimed to say with that title. 

“Isn’t it Ironic? Don’t ya think?”

[Trov]

I really liked to listen to Archer's interview yesterday that really put things into context.  He stated that he is happy with the low pitch count he is being asked because he is still getting back to who he was.  That he sat out for pretty much 2 full years and to just be expected to go back throwing 100 pitches quickly is asking too much.  Many fans attack Rocco for pulling guys early, but maybe, just maybe, the guys know they should be pulled on other teams but afraid to tell the manager so they go out a little longer only to hurt them long term. 

He has taken the ball each time, given 4 or 5 innings most of the time.  Sure would we like 5 to 6 yes, but the fact he is doing it every 5 days is something.  Would I want him starting game 1 of playoffs, of course not, but he is the type of pitcher you need in a 162 season.  

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

I really liked to listen to Archer's interview yesterday that really put things into context.  He stated that he is happy with the low pitch count he is being asked because he is still getting back to who he was.  That he sat out for pretty much 2 full years and to just be expected to go back throwing 100 pitches quickly is asking too much.  Many fans attack Rocco for pulling guys early, but maybe, just maybe, the guys know they should be pulled on other teams but afraid to tell the manager so they go out a little longer only to hurt them long term. 

He has taken the ball each time, given 4 or 5 innings most of the time.  Sure would we like 5 to 6 yes, but the fact he is doing it every 5 days is something.  Would I want him starting game 1 of playoffs, of course not, but he is the type of pitcher you need in a 162 season.  

Isn't he kind of the perfect guy to start a playoff game? In the playoffs the starter goes less than they in in the regular season so he is kind of set up for that.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I really liked to listen to Archer's interview yesterday that really put things into context.  He stated that he is happy with the low pitch count he is being asked because he is still getting back to who he was.  That he sat out for pretty much 2 full years and to just be expected to go back throwing 100 pitches quickly is asking too much.  Many fans attack Rocco for pulling guys early, but maybe, just maybe, the guys know they should be pulled on other teams but afraid to tell the manager so they go out a little longer only to hurt them long term. 

He has taken the ball each time, given 4 or 5 innings most of the time.  Sure would we like 5 to 6 yes, but the fact he is doing it every 5 days is something.  Would I want him starting game 1 of playoffs, of course not, but he is the type of pitcher you need in a 162 season.  

In the beginning of the season we started out with 2 rookies, a pitcher who could pitch successfully in a short season but has been lousy in regular seasons, a pitcher who hasn't pitched much in 3 yrs. , a broken pitcher and a very good pitcher who wasn't in 100% condition. All this screams to be me that we don't have any "iron men" in this rotation. And that we have to have a very good long relief corp to keep from over extending our rotation & short relief.

Our ignoring the long relief and going with 4 short RPs/ game, over stretches short relief. To compensate they over extend the rotation. Bundy who was great in the beginning of the season, in a interview said he felt strong and wanted more innings. After extending him in a couple of games, he tanked because his arm can't sustain that workload. Coaches shouldn't listen to their pitchers when they ask for more innings when their profile says no.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

I really liked to listen to Archer's interview yesterday that really put things into context.  He stated that he is happy with the low pitch count he is being asked because he is still getting back to who he was.  That he sat out for pretty much 2 full years and to just be expected to go back throwing 100 pitches quickly is asking too much.  Many fans attack Rocco for pulling guys early, but maybe, just maybe, the guys know they should be pulled on other teams but afraid to tell the manager so they go out a little longer only to hurt them long term. 

He has taken the ball each time, given 4 or 5 innings most of the time.  Sure would we like 5 to 6 yes, but the fact he is doing it every 5 days is something.  Would I want him starting game 1 of playoffs, of course not, but he is the type of pitcher you need in a 162 season.  

I'd love to hear that interview if you could share that link with us?

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't he kind of the perfect guy to start a playoff game? In the playoffs the starter goes less than they in in the regular season so he is kind of set up for that.

It'd be interesting to see if you could bait the opposition to go lefty-heavy against Archer, get 3-4 innings out of him, then flip to Smeltzer for 2-3 innings. That could drain the bench early in the game or the opponent would have to give Smeltzer a big platoon advantage for one trip through the order.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It'd be interesting to see if you could bait the opposition to go lefty-heavy against Archer, get 3-4 innings out of him, then flip to Smeltzer for 2-3 innings. That could drain the bench early in the game or the opponent would have to give Smeltzer a big platoon advantage for one trip through the order.

A thinking man! I like this idea.

[Trov]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't he kind of the perfect guy to start a playoff game? In the playoffs the starter goes less than they in in the regular season so he is kind of set up for that.

I said game one.  I agree what he is giving us he would be a decent game 2 or 3 type where you know you are only getting 5 good innings and rest pen game.  Game 1 we are hoping they can go a good 6 or more.  

[Trov]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd love to hear that interview if you could share that link with us?

Not sure if there is a link, it was during the game on Sunday he put on headset for half an inning.  It may be somewhere.  A quick search did not help me.  I personally was expecting him to say that he would love the ball more and pitch more, but he said no he was happy with how Rocco was pulling him because he is getting back to full health after missing 2 full years basically with injuries.  He kind of hinted that he was worried he would pitch too much and lead to more issues.  

[MMMordabito]

On 6/26/2022 at 11:11 AM, PopRiveter said:

On June 1, the TD news page featured this article…

I didn’t agree with the opinion suggested by the headline even then, but one month later, it’s hard to imagine posting that article today.

Since this, he’s thrown 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA in June. He’s now started more games than any other Twins pitcher and has thrown the second most innings on the team.

There has been some concern associated with his underlying number (see his 4.72 FIP), but he keeps looking better and better in my opinion. He’s been getting a lot of outs by means of weak contact. That always makes a pitcher’s FIP look worse than his results, but it also makes for a much more efficient pitcher as long as he keeps the ball in the park, which he has.

I have not been supportive of limiting his pitch count so conservatively, but what they are doing is paying off and here we are, about to enter July, and the strategy has resulted in 57 1/3 innings and a starter who seems to keep trending upward. I have to give props.

Bravo! Next do the one where Buxton is supposed to be a full-time DH. Click-bait articles like the one you countered need to be destroyed.

Yes, that "take" didn't age well at all.

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This signing has been a total win.  Say what you want about his innings, if you would tell me we'd have gotten this many good starts (even 4 inning ones) out of this guy....I'd sign this contract again and twice on Sunday.

No doubt he's worth the $3M or so they paid him and I honestly can't believe he's been the rotation stalwart as far as availability is concerned. 

The short starts have definitely contributed to the wobbling pen, and he seems ripe for regression. Ride him while you can, they certainly need it, but I'm not ready to reserve a seat on the bandwagon. 

[TheLeviathan]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No doubt he's worth the $3M or so they paid him and I honestly can't believe he's been the rotation stalwart as far as availability is concerned. 

The short starts have definitely contributed to the wobbling pen, and he seems ripe for regression. Ride him while you can, they certainly need it, but I'm not ready to reserve a seat on the bandwagon. 

3M has already paid for itself.  I'm not sure there really is any debate about that.  

Even as a good long reliever who hasn't got hurt and pitched this well that's a damn good price.

[KirbyDome89]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

3M has already paid for itself.  I'm not sure there really is any debate about that.  

Even as a good long reliever who hasn't got hurt and pitched this well that's a damn good price.

I wasn't debating that? 

I'm just not expecting his relative luck to continue. 

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

I wasn't debating that? 

I'm just not expecting his relative luck to continue. 

I guess I don't know what that last line means then.  I took it as not being happy with the player/contract.  If it was just meant to express skepticism on the future....sure.  

Even if he implodes though, they got their money's worth and then some.

[mnfireman]

Granted Archer lost time due to injury and we don't know the lingering effects, but I looked up Bob Feller's BR page and saw that he missed the 1942-1944 seasons to fight in WWII and was released from active duty August 24, 1945. So, after missing 3 full seasons and most of a 4th, Feller made 9 starts in August and September, going 5-3 with a 2.50 ERA over 72 innings (8 IP per start).

Not saying Archer is Feller (he is not even close) but I think that he can throw more than 60-65 pitches in a game when compared to a guy who missed 3.75 seasons and threw very little if at all over that time period.

[rwilfong86]

I'd like to see him try to get to 80-90 pitches as the season goes on, the bullpen could use that sort of length from him. I understand with the injuries why they are being so cautious with him.

[KirbyDome89]

24 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I guess I don't know what that last line means then.  I took it as not being happy with the player/contract.  If it was just meant to express skepticism on the future....sure.  

Even if he implodes though, they got their money's worth and then some.

Yes. 

I think they've gotten their money's worth, sure. That's not a particularly high bar to clear though. Which direction the Twins go post effectiveness (if that occurs) plays a huge role in determining the value of the signing.  

[TheLeviathan]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yes. 

I think they've gotten their money's worth, sure. That's not a particularly high bar to clear though. Which direction the Twins go post effectiveness (if that occurs) plays a huge role in determining the value of the signing.  

Or we could do mental gymnastics that sure sound like debating it I guess.....

[KirbyDome89]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

Or we could do mental gymnastics that sure sound like debating it I guess.....

It's hard to maintain a solid sense of superiority without such exercises....

Or it could just be an acknowledgement that while getting to the end of June with a $3M starter who is still productive is great, he maxes at 4 IP, has underlying numbers that scream he's getting lucky, and "money's worth," is a poor judge of value relative to a spot in the rotation. 

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It's hard to maintain a solid sense of superiority without such exercises....

Or it could just be an acknowledgement that while getting to the end of June with a $3M starter who is still productive is great, he maxes at 4 IP, has underlying numbers that scream he's getting lucky, and "money's worth," is a poor judge of value relative to a spot in the rotation. 

If you added any more caveats to trying to make that analysis you might have made TD explode.  If, going forward, he explodes and they stubbornly keep him in the rotation that is a different analysis about a different set of actions

3.5M for a half a season of healthy, quality innings is a win.  We're measuring money spent versus results, not hypothetically what "should" have happened based on underlying numbers.  They paid 3.5M and got 60 damn good innings so far.  You pay that price for that all day long.  Hell, you might pay double or triple that price.

Unless you can predict the future with certainty you're doing a lot of hand-wringing to deny what is plainly true: this signing was one hell of a nice return for chump change.  Even if in July Archer has a 9.00 ERA and in August he secretly unveils he was a White Sox player in disguise before bringing on a baseball apocalypse in September or whatever other silliness you can imagine.

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

If you added any more caveats to trying to make that analysis you might have made TD explode.  If, going forward, he explodes and they stubbornly keep him in the rotation that is a different analysis about a different set of actions

3.5M for a half a season of healthy, quality innings is a win.  We're measuring money spent versus results, not hypothetically what "should" have happened based on underlying numbers.  They paid 3.5M and got 60 damn good innings so far.  You pay that price for that all day long.  Hell, you might pay double or triple that price.

Unless you can predict the future with certainty you're doing a lot of hand-wringing to deny what is plainly true: this signing was one hell of a nice return for chump change.  Even if in July Archer has a 9.00 ERA and in August he secretly unveils he was a White Sox player in disguise before bringing on a baseball apocalypse in September or whatever other silliness you can imagine.

I'm not parring down some hypothetical. His inability to pitch beyond the 4th and his poor underlying numbers are a reality. The backup plan is? Hope Winder's shoulder stays healthy? Hope Balazovic gets it together in AAA? You see where this is going right? They paid for a starter; I'm far less worried about "getting your money's worth," at $3M than I am about the rotation spot. I could've made the same value argument about Pagan when he'd put up something like +2 WPA a month into the season. 

What are some of these metrics if not predictive? If we're outright dismissing regression then yeah we're

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm not parring down some hypothetical. His inability to pitch beyond the 4th and his poor underlying numbers are a reality. The backup plan is? Hope Winder's shoulder stays healthy? Hope Balazovic gets it together in AAA? You see where this is going right? They paid for a starter; I'm far less worried about "getting your money's worth," at $3M than I am about the rotation spot. I could've made the same value argument about Pagan when he'd put up something like +2 WPA a month into the season. 

What are some of these metrics if not predictive? If we're outright dismissing regression then yeah we're

Your entire argument rests on unfair expectations.  They didn't get a cure for cancer for their 3.5M either...so "Boo!" Chris Archer I guess.

They paid for a depth starter.  (Hell, half of that going rate really, but I'm being as fair as possible to your argument) They've gotten that and one who has pitched really freaking well AND stayed healthy.  I mean, if they paid him like Noah Syndegaard then sure.  They paid what you pay your 5th guy in your bullpen on an arbitration deal much less a starter. Their ROI is through the freaking roof.

Who has Archer stolen his starting spot from?  Bundy?  Sands?  Oh right.....nobody.  They've desperately needed him and he's been there every fifth day.  I'd argue even if his ERA was north of 5, just by being a warm, competent body was worth the 3.5M, much less the production.