Is Defense Part of the Twins’ Problem?

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Miranda is playing 1B where he has no experience and has not played 3B enough for us to judge him, but that is the place he has the most experience. 

A couple thousand innings is not enough to judge someone’s ability? Miranda did not start playing 3B in the system this year

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you that defense wins you games & championships but I don't trust the stats that says Correa is bad or Miranda is better than Urshella or our team defense is bad. Donaldson is better than Urshella but you can't trust Donaldson to play that many games so overall our defense is better at 3B. Every position is about the same or better (except catching) than last year, especially when you look at depth. 

The depth at CF and SS is wonderful which gives us a chance to compete in every game. SS position took a hit when Lewis went on the IL, my main criticism is not having Palacios up to be ready to sub CC and Polanco. They need to keep Arraez at 1B or DH, 2B is where he played more often but is his worse position because he lacks the range. Catching is even harder to evaluate because of the different aspect of the position and this is where my other critique lies. Sanchez has made some improvement in basic catching but in general, pitchers do much better with Jeffers than Sanchez. Gray does not want Sanchez, Jeffers is Ryans preferred catcher, Archer's ERA with Jeffers is under 2.00 where with Sanchez is over 6.00. Bundy pitched well with Jeffers last night, Sanchez catching should be limited, Smeltzer pitched well with Sanchez so he could relieve Jeffers when Smeltzer's turn or when PHing.

I think it strange that where the article states where we have a problem, I don't see and where it states where we have no problem, I see we do.

[mikelink45]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

A couple thousand innings is not enough to judge someone’s ability? Miranda did not start playing 3B in the system this year

Miranda played 1B - 33 games in the minors, 2B - 168, and 3B - 223.  He actually played SS one more game than he played 1B. Baseball Reference - go fielding register and at the bottom they break down positions and games. 

[mnfireman]

How much of Correa's OAA change can be attributed to not having Bregman, Altuve and Gurriel as fellow infielders?? Are the Twins having him play "in the shift" more or less than Houston did? How about the difference in pitching staff's. Too many variables for me to be a big defensive analytics fan.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I know the eye test isn't terribly reliable, but neither are defensive metrics.  There is a lot in that I just don't think is terribly helpful for analysis.

This team seems to me to be mostly an average to above defense.  Though it has trended the wrong way the last month or so.

They're certainly not gospel, but I find DRS or OAA helpful at least as far as dispelling the "Gio Urshela is a defensive stud," narrative that won't seem to die. 

[RpR]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you that defense wins you games & championships but I don't trust the stats that says Correa is bad or Miranda is better than Urshella or our team defense is bad. Donaldson is better than Urshella but you can't trust Donaldson to play that many games so overall our defense is better at 3B. Every position is about the same or better (except catching) than last year, especially when you look at depth. 

The depth at CF and SS is wonderful which gives us a chance to compete in every game. SS position took a hit when Lewis went on the IL, my main criticism is not having Palacios up to be ready to sub CC and Polanco. They need to keep Arraez at 1B or DH, 2B is where he played more often but is his worse position because he lacks the range. Catching is even harder to evaluate because of the different aspect of the position and this is where my other critique lies. Sanchez has made some improvement in basic catching but in general, pitchers do much better with Jeffers than Sanchez. Gray does not want Sanchez, Jeffers is Ryans preferred catcher, Archer's ERA with Jeffers is under 2.00 where with Sanchez is over 6.00. Bundy pitched well with Jeffers last night, Sanchez catching should be limited, Smeltzer pitched well with Sanchez so he could relieve Jeffers when Smeltzer's turn or when PHing.

I think it strange that where the article states where we have a problem, I don't see and where it states where we have no problem, I see we do.

Bundy pitched to Sanchez yesterday; there is zero way a catcher can make a pitcher good or bad..

[Craig Arko]

I wonder if there is data to normalize this against how defenders are placed in the various shifts that are employed? Maybe there are range issues because batters are hitting ‘em where they ain’t. 

[TheLeviathan]

15 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They're certainly not gospel, but I find DRS or OAA helpful at least as far as dispelling the "Gio Urshela is a defensive stud," narrative that won't seem to die. 

I think he's been better than that number, no?

[Game7-91]

23 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

but I find DRS or OAA helpful at least as far as dispelling the "Gio Urshela is a defensive stud,"

Yes to this.

Case in point: 8th inning vs Clev, 1-0 game, bases loaded no outs, GB to Urshela,playing in as he should, but boots it, nothing special abt the bounce. Other than it bounced the right way after he muffed it. Throw out, barely, at home. Shows as a putout on stat sheet, but was less-than-inspiring.

Later Thielbar coughs up a wounded duck on the throw to first...nice bounce, again, so Miranda caught it. Two poor plays that dont show as such. If run of the mill GB's are adventures in close reg season games, what are these guys going to do in a playoff series with two hands wrapped firmly around throat, in the immortal honesty offered by GMan years ago. I just expect better from MLB level professionals. 

Personally I wouldnt want Urshela, Arreaz, or Miranda on the field after the 6th inning in a close playoff game.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Defense is 1 part athleticism and 2 parts commitment/repetition.

Polanco and Arraez initiated this FO trend of creating interchangeable infield parts. Polancos injuries necessitated a permanent shift to 2b, he has improved since. Arraez is treated like a positional wandering nomad, and the team suffers. His offensive contributions are mitigated by his defense. But its not all on him. 

Whats worrying is the number of guys being developed in the same way. Is Kiriloff a 1b or OF? If 1b, play him there. Regularly. Miranda? Ditto. Arraez? Ditto. Lewis...SS, CF, corner? Really? After how many years , still cant figure out where he plays? Martin? What are they doing with some of the other minor league infielders featured on this site? Advancing high level prospects to MLB roster and deploying them like 26th man utility players? IMHO it is not only depressing wins now, but if our team somehow navigates this god-awful division to make a playoff series, will most certainly cost runs and games when the pressure is really on. 

It is clearly an organizational philosophy, but its the wrong one, and is detrimental to individual player development and the actual MLB product. Identify their best positions, give them rep's in MiLB, let them develop. 

Unless MlB wants to do something really radical, and roster for designated defense and offense....but thats for another discussion?

The vast majority of teams value position flexibility so they can match-up and also to cover injuries.  This is a trend all across baseball.  So, it's not the twins.  It's all of baseball that you are assuming does not get it.    

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, RpR said:

Bundy pitched to Sanchez yesterday; there is zero way a catcher can make a pitcher good or bad..

Do you have any idea what you you're talking about?

[bean5302]

Advanced defensive metrics are unreliable (at best) until a large enough sample size is created and Correa is no where near having that large enough sample size this year. A single expected play which doesn't go as "expected" has a big impact here.

OAA isn't a garbage stat, but I also don't like the way it grades fielders on positions they're not playing. Correa is being negatively impacted by plays where he was graded as a second baseman even though he's never played second base this year. In years past, he was positive this way, I'd expect, and he should be since a SS would be expected to excel at 2B.

Also, when it comes to Correa, UZR/150 is consistent on him and consistent with this year's performance calling him average. Career -2.7 UZR/150. This year, -1.5. Well within tolerances.

I continue to favor UZR/150 as a defensive metric because it throws out the impact from the shift and seems to pass my eye test as well as being fairly consistent with expectations. A 1/2 season is no where near enough to fairly grade a player's defensive performance using these metrics, but if we were to take a wild stab at things...

The Twins are +1.8 UZR/150 this year as a team, ranked 14th.
1B = 29th (6.9)
2B = 23rd (2.5)
3B = 20th (2.5)
SS = 21st (3.1)
LF = 5th 7.3
CF = 6th 8.1
RF = 17th (0.8)

[LA VIkes Fan]

The defensive ratings all make sense to me, except maybe for Correa who I thought was better. Urshela is average to below average defensively - he makes some spectacular plays but has limited range and boots some easy ones.  Arraez isn't much of a middle infielder but we knew that already. 1B/DH is the perfect place for him.

I think there are 2 changes that make the Twins better on defense AND on offense. The first is easy - Polanco comes back to play 2B and Arraez becomes a 1B/DH. By the way, has anyone else noticed that Arraez' hitting has dropped off since he went back to 2B and put more stress on his knee? Correlation is not always causation but the 2 may be related. The second is to play Miranda at 3B every day. His defense won't be much worse than Urshela and may be better and there's a good chance he's a better hitter. I know this puts Kirilloff in LF which is not ideal but I think that's a small price to upgrade 3b and get Arraez a better place to play.  It also gets Kirilloff and Miranda in the batting order at 5 and 6 and we can stop with the fantasy that either Kepler, Sanchez, or Urshela is a middle of the order hitter. 

My lineup? Arraez 1B/DH, Polanco 2B, Correa SS, Buxton CF/DH (yes, I switched Polanco and Buxton), Kirilloff LF, Garlick/Urshela DH, Miranda 3B, Kepler RF, Jeffers/Sanchez C. Celestino and Gordon hit 9 when they play and everyone moves up one up to the spot of the guy who is sitting out. Trade Urshela as part of a package for relief pitching and bring up Palacios or Steer to be the primary IF backup. Urshela fills that job for now.  

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think he's been better than that number, no?

I think he's average. If DRS, UZR, and OAA told varying stories to one degree or another I'd be more inclined to rethink my stance. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Miranda played 1B - 33 games in the minors, 2B - 168, and 3B - 223.  He actually played SS one more game than he played 1B. Baseball Reference - go fielding register and at the bottom they break down positions and games. 

Yup, and right there on the bottom is says 2000 innings at third base. Is that to short of time to learn a position or have some sort of clue if he will be any good at it. I do not know what your point was, as it had nothing to do with what I asked

[Craig Arko]

As I recall, Cory Koskie was not a good 3rd baseman when he started.

He got better. It's been known to happen.

[joefish]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Bundy pitched to Sanchez yesterday; there is zero way a catcher can make a pitcher good or bad..

I'm guessing you were never a pitcher. 

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Yes to this.

Case in point: 8th inning vs Clev, 1-0 game, bases loaded no outs, GB to Urshela,playing in as he should, but boots it, nothing special abt the bounce. Other than it bounced the right way after he muffed it. Throw out, barely, at home. Shows as a putout on stat sheet, but was less-than-inspiring.

Later Thielbar coughs up a wounded duck on the throw to first...nice bounce, again, so Miranda caught it. Two poor plays that dont show as such. If run of the mill GB's are adventures in close reg season games, what are these guys going to do in a playoff series with two hands wrapped firmly around throat, in the immortal honesty offered by GMan years ago. I just expect better from MLB level professionals. 

Personally I wouldnt want Urshela, Arreaz, or Miranda on the field after the 6th inning in a close playoff game.

With a 13 man pitching staff and a 4 man bench, it would be interesting to see who you play where in their place.  Especially since the 3 guys you named are the only 3 that have played 3rd recently.    

[mnfireman]

Urshela has played 22 post-season games at 3B, and while the overall results are mixed, he has only made 1 error over his last 50 chances, covering 17+ games.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think he's average. If DRS, UZR, and OAA told varying stories to one degree or another I'd be more inclined to rethink my stance. 

They all seem to say he's below average.  That doesn't pass the smell test for me.  Ditto Correa.

[Game7-91]

38 minutes ago, Mark G said:

With a 13 man pitching staff and a 4 man bench, it would be interesting to see who you play where in their place.  Especially since the 3 guys you named are the only 3 that have played 3rd recently.    

Thank you for raising an excellent point.  IMHO, herein lies the problem: there is no one. There are zero reliable 3B options,  reliable being the guy trusted to catch the ball 9.5 times out of ten, most especially in late innings with the game on the line, where that # should be 9.9 times out of 10.

To answer your very fair question, in real time, its either Urshela or Miranda (Arraez, he's a gamer and tries hard, but 3B is not his position. He might with reps develop into a solid 1B, but how is AK going to develop then? And why are we essentially having positional try-outs on the mlb roster in-season?).

Having to settle for unreliable defense is our reality in 2022 3B decisions. The FO has minimized the impact of substandard defensive play, especially with IF rostering decisions, a philosophy that means on any given night we are accepting the potential of poor play extending the pitching staff, increasing runs against and ultimately contributing to losses. I fail to see how this is a sustainable model to build a serious WS championship contending team.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

Bundy pitched to Sanchez yesterday; there is zero way a catcher can make a pitcher good or bad..

The Yankees, Dodgers, Houston, St. Louis, Tampa Bay are just a few of the winning organizations who disagree.

Or .... perhaps you mean that Johnny Bench couldn't make you or me a major league pitcher. A terrible catcher could easily make Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax, or Bob Gibson look really bad though by just not catching the ball.

Catching is the second most important player on the field every day. I can remember the first time I had a good catcher, "Oh yah this is sweet, mix my pitches and throw a few in the dirt - no problem." I had six k's in a game once with a horrible catcher as a youth and had a brutal catcher once or twice decades later as an adult. A decent catcher is really, really key to a pitcher's success.

[RpR]

50 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Yankees, Dodgers, Houston, St. Louis, Tampa Bay are just a few of the winning organizations who disagree.

Or .... perhaps you mean that Johnny Bench couldn't make you or me a major league pitcher. A terrible catcher could easily make Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax, or Bob Gibson look really bad though by just not catching the ball.

Catching is the second most important player on the field every day. I can remember the first time I had a good catcher, "Oh yah this is sweet, mix my pitches and throw a few in the dirt - no problem." I had six k's in a game once with a horrible catcher as a youth and had a brutal catcher once or twice decades later as an adult. A decent catcher is really, really key to a pitcher's success.

Not catching the ball has zero reflect on the pitcher if it is in the strike zone; if it is not in the strike zone that has zip to do with the catcher.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Not catching the ball has zero reflect on the pitcher if it is in the strike zone; if it is not in the strike zone that has zip to do with the catcher.

Dude, wtf are you talking about. I was referring to baseball, the importance of a catcher to a pitcher. You lost me.

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Dude, wtf are you talking about. I was referring to baseball, the importance of a catcher to a pitcher. You lost me.

A terrible catcher could easily make Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax, or Bob Gibson look really bad though by just not catching the ball. -- YOUR words.

[stringer bell]

Another question about these numbers. How many runs are the Twins in the negative? I suspect except for the very best and very worst the differences are negligible. If the whole team is say -10 for the season, that’s less than one run per week. 

[Trov]

Good article pointing out that our defense may not be as good as what some may think.  In particular Urshela who has made some good looking plays, but he has had many plays that have not been made as well.  Correa numbers are a little surprising.  I do know some metrics do not take shifting into account, and some do.  Really the only upgrade we could make overall would be at 3b.  Either on defense, or on offense, but Urshella right now is replacement level in my opinion. 

[chpettit19]

21 hours ago, old nurse said:

Smalley made the plays because he knew positioning for the situation. That is how he got the extra outs. There is what the statistics do not measure. That is the limitation of these statistics. 

Because of stats every infielder knows the best positioning for every situation now.

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

They all seem to say he's below average.  That doesn't pass the smell test for me.  Ditto Correa.

DRS and UZR have Urshela right at average with OAA a tick below. I'll cede that it's possible he's undervalued a little but this season isn't a a stark departure from his career numbers.

Correa is another story. I think he's better than the numbers he has posted this year, but these same metrics loved him while he ascended towards the top of the SS mountain. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Because of stats every infielder knows the best positioning for every situation now.

Smalley plaid in the 70s and 80s. Different time