Miguel Sano Update - Running Progression

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

In the end, the Twins will do everything they can to play him in the majors and try and get a retrun on their 2022 investment. 

Sometimes, it is hard to "just let go."

 

To an extent, they owe him an opportunity to come back from his injury. They have a contract with him, and if they don’t give him a chance to come back, I imagine that’s a union grievance and a black mark on future free agent signings and extensions

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

To an extent, they owe him an opportunity to come back from his injury. They have a contract with him, and if they don’t give him a chance to come back, I imagine that’s a union grievance and a black mark on future free agent signings and extensions

I'm not sure why you feel that way. He's .093/.231/.148 OPS .379 wRC+ 20 prior to the injury and he was well below average for the first half of last year. Sano's just not very valuable as a player and there's no way Sano's option is going to be picked up.

The bottom line is Sano is a very poor performing player who brings no versatility on a crowded roster playing out the final year of a contract before free agency. When Sano reaches free agency, I'd find it somewhat implausible he won't have to accept a minor league contract at this point. That's not the kind of player who is entitled to plate appearances.

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, East Coast Twin said:

The Guardian's radio announcer Tom Hamilton a few days ago ripped Sano for being "fat."  Perhaps that's what you heard.  Or perhaps there now multiple sources.

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/cleveland-announcer-tom-hamilton-miguel-sano-fat/599446

Here's an article about that:

https://awfulannouncing.com/radio/cleveland-guardians-tom-hamilton-fat-shamed-miguel-sano.html?fbclid=IwAR0a5eEzOCg0SDy-zJzY2ZW5dIX2NNjtGmUvPJA1Yeo6VZuU8hDFnTiiMzo

[darwin22]

12 hours ago, East Coast Twin said:

The Guardian's radio announcer Tom Hamilton a few days ago ripped Sano for being "fat."  Perhaps that's what you heard.  Or perhaps there now multiple sources.

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/cleveland-announcer-tom-hamilton-miguel-sano-fat/599446

Can't confirm this report out of south Florida, but informed sources are saying that Sano has hired Terry Forster as his personal conditioning coach.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure why you feel that way. He's .093/.231/.148 OPS .379 wRC+ 20 prior to the injury and he was well below average for the first half of last year. Sano's just not very valuable as a player and there's no way Sano's option is going to be picked up.

The bottom line is Sano is a very poor performing player who brings no versatility on a crowded roster playing out the final year of a contract before free agency. When Sano reaches free agency, I'd find it somewhat implausible he won't have to accept a minor league contract at this point. That's not the kind of player who is entitled to plate appearances.

1) It seems likely to me that the poor performance leading up to the IL stint was caused by the injury.

2) They signed him to a contract in good faith. Think of your own situation. If you were hit by a forklift on the job and your employer paid you short term disability and then on your first day back fire you for absenteeism. You had really poor performance while you were at home healing from being impaled by the fork lift. Can’t imagine you’d have a grievance and post on every job board you can find what a crappy employer that was? MLB Free Agency is a much smaller pool of job applicants and an even smaller pool of agents.

3) what happens after his contract is up, is irrelevant.

[goulik]

Creating a narrative of Sano not being good based solely on Ks is not fairly looking at the stats nor is looking at last years first half and declaring it a bust when his second half pushed the overall to a positive 1.0 WAR with 30 home runs. Overall, the last 8 years of Sano average out to that same 1.0 WAR. That’s not great but that’s better than replacement level.

The problem is it’s not what fans hoped for or expect and if we can find someone that is consistently 2.0 WAR or better we should go with it. But these hate filled narratives get old when they are not fully supported by all the stats. 

Sano is streaky, inconsistent, and for many, very frustrating. I am glad he has been on our team and I have enjoyed his good seasons and his hot streaks. I have enjoyed many memorable moments, incredible bombas, and a few exciting walk offs yet I too am ready for this to be his last as a Twin. Even though I think it’s time for him to move on, I will also be sad to see him moving on because I like him despite my frustration with his inconsistency.

[Original_JB]

Richie, you posted this:

"1) It seems likely to me that the poor performance leading up to the IL stint was caused by the injury."

He hurt himself celebrating his walkoff hit, and as far as I know, didn't play after that, so what are you even talking about?

 

 

[Kummel]

His injury was in no way comparable to being "impaled by a forklift" on the job.  He injured himself.  The injury was sustained in the course of celebrating.  And it was after the game.

[dxpavelka]

In spite of every bitch and gripe above, he's still the most entertaining Twin with a bat his hand since Killebrew.  At the end of the day, only one team is gonna win the World Series each year.  The other 29 had better be entertaining.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

1) It seems likely to me that the poor performance leading up to the IL stint was caused by the injury.

2) They signed him to a contract in good faith. Think of your own situation. If you were hit by a forklift on the job and your employer paid you short term disability and then on your first day back fire you for absenteeism. You had really poor performance while you were at home healing from being impaled by the fork lift. Can’t imagine you’d have a grievance and post on every job board you can find what a crappy employer that was? MLB Free Agency is a much smaller pool of job applicants and an even smaller pool of agents.

3) what happens after his contract is up, is irrelevant.

1) So was it Sano's injury which had him crawl to a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for the first half of last year, all while playing defense like beer league softball replacement player level? I mean, we're talking truly, truly unspeakably bad defense at 1B that has continued into this year as well.

2) Comparing Sano to a union forklift driver? Well, there is an ever so slight difference in the fact Miguel Sano still gets paid after he's released or assigned. The Twins honor their commitment (to pay Sano). If the Twins promised to not only pay Sano, but also to play him regularly, no matter how badly her performed for the duration of his contract, you'd have a point. I can't say I've been part of Sano's contract negotiations with the Twins so I can't promise that didn't happen, but in MLB it would be pretty ludicrous to make such a promise.

3) Yes, it actually matters a lot to the team if they're concerned about what happens after just this year.
 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, goulik said:

Creating a narrative of Sano not being good based solely on Ks is not fairly looking at the stats nor is looking at last years first half and declaring it a bust when his second half pushed the overall to a positive 1.0 WAR with 30 home runs. Overall, the last 8 years of Sano average out to that same 1.0 WAR. That’s not great but that’s better than replacement level.

The problem is it’s not what fans hoped for or expect and if we can find someone that is consistently 2.0 WAR or better we should go with it. But these hate filled narratives get old when they are not fully supported by all the stats. 

Sano is streaky, inconsistent, and for many, very frustrating. I am glad he has been on our team and I have enjoyed his good seasons and his hot streaks. I have enjoyed many memorable moments, incredible bombas, and a few exciting walk offs yet I too am ready for this to be his last as a Twin. Even though I think it’s time for him to move on, I will also be sad to see him moving on because I like him despite my frustration with his inconsistency.

1.0 WAR = scrub level. It's still bad. It's still a guy you don't want to play. A starting position player needs to be a 2.0+ WAR per season guy not to be a drag on the team performance. Saying a guy is marginally better than an average AAA call up doesn't help Sano's case.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Kummel said:

His injury was in no way comparable to being "impaled by a forklift" on the job.  He injured himself.  The injury was sustained in the course of celebrating.  And it was after the game.

He was injured in the ballpark, celebrating a game he is paid to play to entertain us. That is absolutely in the line of duty.

in the line of duty doesn’t matter anyways…

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

1) So was it Sano's injury which had him crawl to a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for the first half of last year, all while playing defense like beer league softball replacement player level? I mean, we're talking truly, truly unspeakably bad defense at 1B that has continued into this year as well.

2) Comparing Sano to a union forklift driver? Well, there is an ever so slight difference in the fact Miguel Sano still gets paid after he's released or assigned. The Twins honor their commitment (to pay Sano). If the Twins promised to not only pay Sano, but also to play him regularly, no matter how badly her performed for the duration of his contract, you'd have a point. I can't say I've been part of Sano's contract negotiations with the Twins so I can't promise that didn't happen, but in MLB it would be pretty ludicrous to make such a promise.

3) Yes, it actually matters a lot to the team if they're concerned about what happens after just this year.
 

1) no, but his triple slash for the season .223/.312/.466 and 110 wRC+ were very close to his career numbers .234/.326/.483 and 115. He’s always been a horrible fielder. He was last year, what they extended for 3 years 30 million. He’s always been streaky, that is what they bought.

2) they don’t have to guarantee him playing time, but they have to give him a chance at recovery. I’d take a guaranteed contract too. Yes there’s differences between athletes and normal hourly workers, but we all have this reaction to hold athletes to some different standard, when they are human beings just like us.

3) why does a guy who’s option you don’t pick up, matter if he plays on a different contract? Clearly the Twins won’t pickup his option, that’s all they need at this point. If he goes nuts the second half of the season, maybe they sign him to a new deal, but with AK and TL both looking like legit major leaguers, they won’t (and I don’t want them to).

[Florida Flash]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:16 PM, Rosterman said:

He would replace Garlick, Miranda or Kirilloff. Take a pick. Of course, Polanco will probably be back and possibly push garlick from the roster before this. Although he should be the primary DH in the end.

Does Miranda need to spend time just playing, say, third base in St. Paul.

Does Sano play first base...instead of Kirilloff, making Alex the fifth outfielder?

Where do we end up playing Arraez?

Will Sanchez and Jeffers only catch, then...and not be a DH?

What is Sano still keeps swinging at the low and outside and doesn't hit? How long can he stay in the minors? Any options left?

Garlick, Kirilloff and Miranda all have three weeks to make heir mark and prove they NEED to stay in the majors. 

 

I doubt Sano has any options left. Based on his salary and performance, I doubt anyone would claim him. If so, the Twins would get rid of a big salary for which they are getting little in return.

[stringer bell]

59 minutes ago, Florida Flash said:

I doubt Sano has any options left. Based on his salary and performance, I doubt anyone would claim him. If so, the Twins would get rid of a big salary for which they are getting little in return.

Sano has over 6 years of service, he can't be optioned without his consent. The Twins can send him on rehab for 20 day maximum. When he exhausts his rehab time, the Twins will have to activate him or DFA him. If he looks good for the rehab, it is a no-brainer to activate him, but if he's struggling with minor league pitching, I suppose they will look at at DFA or trade for little value.

[ashbury]

59 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Sano has over 6 years of service, he can't be optioned without his consent. The Twins can send him on rehab for 20 day maximum. When he exhausts his rehab time, the Twins will have to activate him or DFA him. If he looks good for the rehab, it is a no-brainer to activate him, but if he's struggling with minor league pitching, I suppose they will look at at DFA or trade for little value.

Slight quibble, but he does seem to have a minor league option remaining, so IF he could be persuaded to accept a demotion to AAA I don't think a DFA would be required.

Ballplayers do have a lot of pride though, and it would be a bitter pill to swallow for no particular benefit to the player.

[lecroy24fan]

Fangraphs shows he has no options remaining.

[ashbury]

18 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

Fangraphs shows he has no options remaining.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

I see "n/a" as opposed to "0".  I take that to mean they presume a player with the requisite service time would refuse.  (Or, maybe they know that the roster rules have been changed somehow so that the team can't even ask, anymore.  I don't know.)

It was a quibble on my part, even in the first place.  There are many hills I will not die on - this is one.

[AstrosTwins]

Falvey said on MLB Radio this morning that the rumors and comments about Sano being in Florida because of being fat are BS. Meniscus issue is legit and Falvey said he had a conversation with the Cleveland announcer who made those comments and he said the announcer apologized to him for the comments. Take that for what it’s worth. Doesn’t change the fact that when he comes back, he’s gotta hit.

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

1) no, but his triple slash for the season .223/.312/.466 and 110 wRC+ were very close to his career numbers .234/.326/.483 and 115. He’s always been a horrible fielder. He was last year, what they extended for 3 years 30 million. He’s always been streaky, that is what they bought.

2) they don’t have to guarantee him playing time, but they have to give him a chance at recovery. I’d take a guaranteed contract too. Yes there’s differences between athletes and normal hourly workers, but we all have this reaction to hold athletes to some different standard, when they are human beings just like us.

3) why does a guy who’s option you don’t pick up, matter if he plays on a different contract? Clearly the Twins won’t pickup his option, that’s all they need at this point. If he goes nuts the second half of the season, maybe they sign him to a new deal, but with AK and TL both looking like legit major leaguers, they won’t (and I don’t want them to).

Sano's bad streaks have become deeper, longer, and more frequent as he's aged. There comes a point where players don't come back out of those "slumps." Sano is due for that to happen any time now. The Twins can either roll the dice, potentially lose other players or cut a poor performing veteran who is maybe 50/50 to ever step onto the field in an MLB game again after this year.

You know what I would like to see? The Twins not only DFA Sano, but deny his compensation because he violated the clause requiring him to be in shape to play baseball. Sano is the one who owes the Twins, not vice versa.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 6/25/2022 at 1:05 PM, Major League Ready said:

There is no way he is here next year so let's just move on, especially if it's true that he is badly out of shape.  Give him 20 days at AAA and hope they can trade him.  If not, release him.  I would much rather see Kirilloff or Arrez get the playing the time.

I'm pretty much with you on this one. 

If he does come back, I think it is going to be because of an injury to someone else. If he is back here NOT because of that factor, I would like to see him as a bench bat/pinch hitter type. Give him a handful of at bats per week. If he is able to produce some, then maybe he gets more playing time. If he doesn't, then DFA.

[Finlander]

Activating Sano will probably coincide with a package trade for pitching made by the Twins to clear a roster spot for him on the 40. I haven't studied the stats in detail, but it does seem that his hot streaks occur more consistently in the second half of a season. Granted, this is essentially like his spring training now, but maybe temperatures have something to do with his comfort level. Who knows...a hot Sano could be a nice weapon off the bench during the stretch run or a playoff series. He is one of the few hitters we have that can absolutely frighten an opposing pitcher when he is on.

[howeda7]

On 6/24/2022 at 2:16 PM, Rosterman said:

He would replace Garlick, Miranda or Kirilloff. Take a pick. Of course, Polanco will probably be back and possibly push garlick from the roster before this. Although he should be the primary DH in the end.

Does Miranda need to spend time just playing, say, third base in St. Paul.

Does Sano play first base...instead of Kirilloff, making Alex the fifth outfielder?

Where do we end up playing Arraez?

Will Sanchez and Jeffers only catch, then...and not be a DH?

What is Sano still keeps swinging at the low and outside and doesn't hit? How long can he stay in the minors? Any options left?

Garlick, Kirilloff and Miranda all have three weeks to make heir mark and prove they NEED to stay in the majors. 

 

The days of Sanchez DH'ing should be over regardless.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I'm pretty much with you on this one. 

If he does come back, I think it is going to be because of an injury to someone else. If he is back here NOT because of that factor, I would like to see him as a bench bat/pinch hitter type. Give him a handful of at bats per week. If he is able to produce some, then maybe he gets more playing time. If he doesn't, then DFA.

Who goes to make room for him?  He is a downgrade unless he is much better than he was prior to the injury.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm not sure anyone should go in favor of him. I said if he comes up, that is what I would like his role to be. 

Also, I just looked at the active and who is Mark Contreras? Guessing Sano is a better player than he is anyway.

 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I'm not sure anyone should go in favor of him. I said if he comes up, that is what I would like his role to be. 

Also, I just looked at the active and who is Mark Contreras? Guessing Sano is a better player than he is anyway.

 

 

Plenty of stuff on the site about Contreras. Power bat outfielder range-y enough to cover CF in a tight pinch. Once a solid prospect who looked like he was flamed out at the plate in 2019. He came back in 2021 and suddenly started to hit more like he was expected to hit. Age 27 non-prospect at this point. Pretty high K rate, okay BB rate, limited projectability.

[KirbyDome89]

On 6/26/2022 at 8:15 AM, goulik said:

Creating a narrative of Sano not being good based solely on Ks is not fairly looking at the stats nor is looking at last years first half and declaring it a bust when his second half pushed the overall to a positive 1.0 WAR with 30 home runs. Overall, the last 8 years of Sano average out to that same 1.0 WAR. That’s not great but that’s better than replacement level.

The problem is it’s not what fans hoped for or expect and if we can find someone that is consistently 2.0 WAR or better we should go with it. But these hate filled narratives get old when they are not fully supported by all the stats. 

Sano is streaky, inconsistent, and for many, very frustrating. I am glad he has been on our team and I have enjoyed his good seasons and his hot streaks. I have enjoyed many memorable moments, incredible bombas, and a few exciting walk offs yet I too am ready for this to be his last as a Twin. Even though I think it’s time for him to move on, I will also be sad to see him moving on because I like him despite my frustration with his inconsistency.

Expectations are the primary culprit, but I don't think they were unfairly set. Sano was a top prospect, and following his debut in '15 if you had told me that by June 27, 2022 he would've accumulated less than 6 bWAR I wouldn't have believed it. 

To an extent I think the angst over his strikeouts has more to do with displeasure about the direction the game has gone, but Sano has posted some truly atrocious K%s that even his solidly above average on base skills + power couldn't counter. All in all I think his Twins tenure ends up being a disappointment. 

[goulik]

On 6/26/2022 at 11:50 AM, bean5302 said:

1.0 WAR = scrub level. It's still bad. It's still a guy you don't want to play. A starting position player needs to be a 2.0+ WAR per season guy not to be a drag on the team performance. Saying a guy is marginally better than an average AAA call up doesn't help Sano's case.

Actually by definition 0.0 WAR is scrub level and if you read all of my comment I expressed support for replacing him with someone that can put up 2.0 WAR or better… which he has done in the past… and is about what he did in the 2nd half of last year… As I said, I understand the frustration just no need for the hate.

[East Coast Twin]

Sano begins his rehab assignment today.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-injuries-and-roster-moves

 

[RpR]

He is back at bottom level where he was at once before and then he came back much better but he had Cruz as a hat time.