Miguel Sano Update - Running Progression

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, East Coast Twin said:

Sano begins his rehab assignment today.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-injuries-and-roster-moves

 

Quote

"Is his body slowly getting back to where it needs to be? Are his baseball skills getting back to where they need to be?" manager Rocco Baldelli said. "It's all I think about. However long that takes, that's how long it's going to take."

Tough not to notice that first part... Since Sano can stay in the minors up to 20 days on a rehab assignment without a shut down due to injury, I wouldn't expect to see him back until 7/24. Do the Twins and Sano agree he's had a "setback" if he's struggling? If not, at that point, does he get DFA'd? Who knows?

[kydoty]

I have a hard time believing he will ever be on the Twins Major League roster again.  They aren’t going to remove Miranda, Garlick, Larnach, Celestino or Gordon to make room for him.  If they can’t trade him by the time his rehab stint is supposed to end, I believe they will DFA him.  He won’t be back next year and there’s nothing he can do that the others listed above can’t already provide.  It’s time to move on.  

[RpR]

30 minutes ago, kydoty said:

I have a hard time believing he will ever be on the Twins Major League roster again.  They aren’t going to remove Miranda, Garlick, Larnach, Celestino or Gordon to make room for him.  If they can’t trade him by the time his rehab stint is supposed to end, I believe they will DFA him.  He won’t be back next year and there’s nothing he can do that the others listed above can’t already provide.  It’s time to move on.  

Believe

[DJL44]

On 7/4/2022 at 8:08 PM, bean5302 said:

Tough not to notice that first part... Since Sano can stay in the minors up to 20 days on a rehab assignment without a shut down due to injury, I wouldn't expect to see him back until 7/24. Do the Twins and Sano agree he's had a "setback" if he's struggling? If not, at that point, does he get DFA'd? Who knows?

It is entirely possible that Sano manages to injure himself again if he's playing everyday for the next 20 days.

I don't see how Sano survives the August 2 trade deadline with a spot on the roster. The marginal value of his roster spot is higher than his value to the team. The only reason he hasn't already been released is the 60 day DL. He has been outplayed by everyone else who has a 40 man roster spot and some who aren't on the roster but might be worth adding (Spencer Steer, Tim Beckham, Matt Wallner, Jake Cave).

[Schmoeman5]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Believe

From the man who puts defensive prowess over all else. 

[Schmoeman5]

Miguel Sano is going to come back with a vengeance and I predict he will be the Eddie Rosario of 2022 playoffs and lead the Twins to the World Series title. Just going out on a limb here. 

[Jeff D.]

Mr. Sano should be nowhere near the batter's box for the Twins. He has proven that he has power that can drop the jaws of the fans. However, he has also proven that he has an appetite for low and away and that is not going to go away.

We have moved on without him and hopefully we are moving from the Bomba Squad to a team that may compete in September and October. I'd like to think we will continue down the road.

Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Celestino, Larnach, Garlick all contribute more to the team than Mr. Sano will. I'd like to see the Twins craft a trade that includes Sano and Kepler or Jeffers or some other combination of AAA and Sano and maybe one of our SP's (Not Ryan or Smelzer) for a solid relief pitcher. I think a very interesting and unpopular potential trade could be Buxton going for a solid starter and relief specialist.

We are fortunate to have Polanco, Urshela, Correa, Arraez, Buxton (along with his .220 BA), and our AAA facility 15 minutes away. 

The Twins do not need Mr. Sano and so what if he ends up being the next David Ortiz for another team?

Twins Geezer

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

The Twins do not need Mr. Sano and so what if he ends up being the next David Ortiz for another team?

I don't think there is any reason to worry about this. He's more likely to become Chris Davis than David Ortiz.

[Major League Ready]

If he is crushing it in rehab, it will be an interesting decision.  Do they trade him or put him on the roster?  My guess is they trade him.  They already have Kirilloff / Miranda and Arrez for 1B.  Anything short of crushing it and I think they have to DFA him or trade him while taking on all or most of his salary and getting very little in return.

[Linus]

Sorry guys. Sano has zero trade value unless the Twins pay the rest of his salary for the remainder of the season. How much would you give up in trade forSano?

[big dog]

Agreed with earlier poster- who do you send down in order to hope that Sano turns it around? Maybe Garlick- that's the only one I'd consider, and I'd turn it down. And if you keep him on the roster, who you do bench to give him at-bats? He could replace Sanchez as DH, but that experiment seems to be over already.

If we could get a AA prospect with a chance, I'd be ok with it. Actually, I'd be thrilled with it.

[chpettit19]

*Trigger warning*: I'm about to not be completely and utterly negative about Sano. If that makes you uncomfortable you can stop reading now.

I generally don't pay attention to rehab assignments and the player's performance on them when it's a veteran type. Winder coming back from his injury I was a little more concerned with his performance in St Paul being that he's a rookie and a more unknown talent. We know Sano's ceiling, though. Like we know most veteran's ceilings. But we also know Sano's floor. He's one of, if not the, most polarized player in baseball. Bad Sano is unplayable, but Good Sano is an MVP caliber bat. His problem has always been that Bad Sano shows up too often.

For me the Sano decision comes down strictly to how he performs in his rehab games. If he's Good Sano he'd get another shot with the Twins for me. Until Bad Sano shows up and then he's DFA'd if the rest of the lineup is healthy, or benched if there's a bunch of injuries. If he's Bad Sano in his rehab games I don't give him a chance again. The Twins can't afford Bad Sano in the lineup for any real amount of time while he tries to find a Good Sano streak. They have too many other flaws, and are in too tight of a division battle, to add a guy hitting .100, with no defensive value, to the lineup. 

If he's bad Sano and I'm getting rid of him I definitely offer to eat the rest of his salary this year and his buyout next year to get some sort of flier in return. They're eating the money anyways if they DFA him so may as well take a young flier if they can get it, and I think they could. Those borderline buyer/seller teams may be willing to take a shot on him getting hot in August while not having to give up any of their elite prospects. If he gets hot and helps them they have the option to keep him for next year. I think you could find a buyer for him if you're willing to pay the contract and not expect something great back in return. That'd be my strategy. Although, I also wouldn't mind a month worth of Good Sano before DFAing him when he turns back into Bad Sano. Good Sano is really, really good.

[wsnydes]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

*Trigger warning*: I'm about to not be completely and utterly negative about Sano. If that makes you uncomfortable you can stop reading now.

I generally don't pay attention to rehab assignments and the player's performance on them when it's a veteran type. Winder coming back from his injury I was a little more concerned with his performance in St Paul being that he's a rookie and a more unknown talent. We know Sano's ceiling, though. Like we know most veteran's ceilings. But we also know Sano's floor. He's one of, if not the, most polarized player in baseball. Bad Sano is unplayable, but Good Sano is an MVP caliber bat. His problem has always been that Bad Sano shows up too often.

For me the Sano decision comes down strictly to how he performs in his rehab games. If he's Good Sano he'd get another shot with the Twins for me. Until Bad Sano shows up and then he's DFA'd if the rest of the lineup is healthy, or benched if there's a bunch of injuries. If he's Bad Sano in his rehab games I don't give him a chance again. The Twins can't afford Bad Sano in the lineup for any real amount of time while he tries to find a Good Sano streak. They have too many other flaws, and are in too tight of a division battle, to add a guy hitting .100, with no defensive value, to the lineup. 

If he's bad Sano and I'm getting rid of him I definitely offer to eat the rest of his salary this year and his buyout next year to get some sort of flier in return. They're eating the money anyways if they DFA him so may as well take a young flier if they can get it, and I think they could. Those borderline buyer/seller teams may be willing to take a shot on him getting hot in August while not having to give up any of their elite prospects. If he gets hot and helps them they have the option to keep him for next year. I think you could find a buyer for him if you're willing to pay the contract and not expect something great back in return. That'd be my strategy. Although, I also wouldn't mind a month worth of Good Sano before DFAing him when he turns back into Bad Sano. Good Sano is really, really good.

This is kind of along the lines of my thought process as well.  The issue I run into is that I think that they're a better team now than with Good Sano, generally speaking.  I also don't know who'd be sent down.  I'd lean Miranda only because he's an infield corner guy.  He doesn't really deserve it, but could probably benefit some time in St. Paul to polish a few things defensively himself.  Kirilloff can play the outfield and a good 1B and his bat is taking off.  

And as you touched on, how long do you ride Good Sano until he turns back into a pumpkin?  Best case scenario in my mind is that Sano has a really good rehab stint that the team showcases and deals him, likely needing to eat the salary.  

I think he can still be a serviceable major league player, but I don't think it'll be here.  And I'm at the point where I don't think it even SHOULD be here.  The team has filled in pretty well without him.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

This is kind of along the lines of my thought process as well.  The issue I run into is that I think that they're a better team now than with Good Sano, generally speaking.  I also don't know who'd be sent down.  I'd lean Miranda only because he's an infield corner guy.  He doesn't really deserve it, but could probably benefit some time in St. Paul to polish a few things defensively himself.  Kirilloff can play the outfield and a good 1B and his bat is taking off.  

And as you touched on, how long do you ride Good Sano until he turns back into a pumpkin?  Best case scenario in my mind is that Sano has a really good rehab stint that the team showcases and deals him, likely needing to eat the salary.  

I think he can still be a serviceable major league player, but I don't think it'll be here.  And I'm at the point where I don't think it even SHOULD be here.  The team has filled in pretty well without him.

I'd send Garlick down in exchange for Good Sano. Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Gordon is enough outfielders and Garlick only serves 1 purpose and it's to mash lefties. Good Sano can do that while also mashing righties. That's really the decision to me at this point. Garlick vs Sano. Sano has a far higher ceiling, but a far lower floor. But Garlick is so limited in how he can impact wins. Neither of them deserve to even carry a glove with them at the field. So if he's good on his rehab I bring Sano back and send Garlick down. Wait for Larnach to get healthy and get right at AAA and then make another decision on Sano/Garlick. Or if Sano collapses before that then I DFA him and bring Garlick back until Larnach is ready. Basically I see Garlick and Sano as place holders for a healthy and productive Larnach.

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd send Garlick down in exchange for Good Sano. Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Gordon is enough outfielders and Garlick only serves 1 purpose and it's to mash lefties. Good Sano can do that while also mashing righties. That's really the decision to me at this point. Garlick vs Sano. Sano has a far higher ceiling, but a far lower floor. But Garlick is so limited in how he can impact wins. Neither of them deserve to even carry a glove with them at the field. So if he's good on his rehab I bring Sano back and send Garlick down. Wait for Larnach to get healthy and get right at AAA and then make another decision on Sano/Garlick. Or if Sano collapses before that then I DFA him and bring Garlick back until Larnach is ready. Basically I see Garlick and Sano as place holders for a healthy and productive Larnach.

This is actually the most reasonable plan, imo. But ... how long of a leash will he have? I hope, if it's bad Sano, the decision is made quickly. I hope Sano himself is realistic here, and prepared for 'what if.'

[wsnydes]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd send Garlick down in exchange for Good Sano. Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Gordon is enough outfielders and Garlick only serves 1 purpose and it's to mash lefties. Good Sano can do that while also mashing righties. That's really the decision to me at this point. Garlick vs Sano. Sano has a far higher ceiling, but a far lower floor. But Garlick is so limited in how he can impact wins. Neither of them deserve to even carry a glove with them at the field. So if he's good on his rehab I bring Sano back and send Garlick down. Wait for Larnach to get healthy and get right at AAA and then make another decision on Sano/Garlick. Or if Sano collapses before that then I DFA him and bring Garlick back until Larnach is ready. Basically I see Garlick and Sano as place holders for a healthy and productive Larnach.

I forgot about Garlick...which probably tells me something...

And as @Squirrelsaid, it's probably the most reasonable.  Also the most prudent.  It's perhaps a bit unfair to base a decision like that on just a rehab stint.  You just have to hope that he doesn't hurt the team too much in the process.

[big dog]

And Garlick is hardly playing, so how do we know which Sano is here? Just based on rehab? Sure, if he has a rehab OPS of 1.100 let’s play him but I don’t like the chances. 
 

will rehab help his minimal trade value? I doubt it. I would try to get something now. If the Twins kelp him and he hits like Good Sano I will be happy to be wrong, but I’m betting the under. 

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd send Garlick down in exchange for Good Sano. 

Garlick is hitting better (higher OPS+) in a platoon role than Sano has hit in every year of his career except 2019.

Best case scenario for Sano is to find a team looking to shed payroll and use Sano as a way to offset the cost of acquiring someone who is overpaid but still somewhat effective. For example: Sano + prospects to the Angels for Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera OR Sano to Arizona for Mark Melancon. 

[Muppet]

I'm rooting for the underdog. If someone gets injured and a spot opens up, bring up Jake Cave. DFA Sano. Cave will be the black horse WS MVP!

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Garlick is hitting better (higher OPS+) in a platoon role than Sano has hit in every year of his career except 2019.

Best case scenario for Sano is to find a team looking to shed payroll and use Sano as a way to offset the cost of acquiring someone who is overpaid but still somewhat effective. For example: Sano + prospects to the Angels for Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera OR Sano to Arizona for Mark Melancon. 

Key phrase is "platoon role." And the short end of a platoon. Garlick is completely unusable against righties. Has been his entire major league career. I'm not saving any spot on any team for a guy who can't field and can't hit righties. Sano can't field either, but when he's good (as I've said it would take for me to keep him as I'd drop him if he goes on a bad streak) he can hit anyone and is far more valuable than Kyle Garlick.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Key phrase is "platoon role." And the short end of a platoon. Garlick is completely unusable against righties. Has been his entire major league career. I'm not saving any spot on any team for a guy who can't field and can't hit righties. Sano can't field either, but when he's good (as I've said it would take for me to keep him as I'd drop him if he goes on a bad streak) he can hit anyone and is far more valuable than Kyle Garlick.

Garlick can field his position. Sano can't field at all and hasn't hit at all this season.

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Garlick can field his position. Sano can't field at all and hasn't hit at all this season.

Garlick can absolutely not field his position. He's every bit as bad in the outfield as Sano is at 1st base. And, as I've now said multiple times, if Sano is terrible on his rehab I wouldn't bring him back to Minneapolis. But if Sano is looking like he usually does in July and August he's a much better offensive threat than Garlick.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

if Sano is terrible on his rehab I wouldn't bring him back to Minneapolis.

So far, he's 1 for 7 at the lowest level of the minors. At least he only has one strikeout.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

So far, he's 1 for 7 at the lowest level of the minors. At least he only has one strikeout.

And if the decision needed to be made today I wouldn't bring him back. But he's got about 17 more days before a decision has to be made.

[ICTwin25]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Garlick can field his position. Sano can't field at all and hasn't hit at all this season.

This is where I'm at too. This team does not need Sano as their bats are already inconsistent and throwing in the ultimate hot and cold hitter is probably not the best idea. I think we should hope he destroys it the next 17 days and is traded for an arm

[DJL44]

Jake Cave is hitting .281/.374/.520 at AAA this season. Sano should have to outperform Jake Cave if he wants a roster spot.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I also don't know who'd be sent down.  I'd lean Miranda only because he's an infield corner guy. 

It's not just a question of sending someone to AAA.  There needs to be a 40-man roster move, because Sano is currently off it (60-day IL).  I will assume the FO won't take away a pitcher (because of their strategy to churn the AAA roster).  Remove Godoy and run with 2 catchers on the 40?  Remove Contreras and hope he slips through waivers?

[jorgenswest]

The roster spot will work out if they believe his bat will help. Have they moved Larnach to the 60 day? He went in the IL on June 24. He has a 6 week recovery from the surgery June 27. That is 45 days and he will need a lengthy rehab. 

[tony&rodney]

Sano, if he returns, will be productive. We don't need to worry. 

[Monkeypaws]

His ship has sailed for me - he was an exciting prospect as Miggy Jr., but from 2020 on, his inability to hit for average, whiff a lot, age(29), and overall lack of athleticism, buh bye., I like Miranda at 3rd and Kiriloff at 1st better.