Jose Miranda Deserves a Shot

[Mark G]

8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Definition

WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).

For example, if a shortstop and a first baseman offer the same overall production (on offense, defense and the basepaths), the shortstop will have a better WAR because his position sees a lower level of production from replacement-level players.

The formula

For position players: (The number of runs above average a player is worth in his batting, baserunning and fielding + adjustment for position + adjustment for league + the number of runs provided by a replacement-level player) / runs per win

For pitchers: Different WAR computations use either RA9 or FIP. Those numbers are adjusted for league and ballpark. Then, using league averages, it is determined how many wins a pitcher was worth based on those numbers and his innings pitched total.

Note: fWAR refers to Fangraphs' calculation of WAR. bWAR or rWAR refer to Baseball-Reference's calculation. And WARP refers to Baseball Prospectus' statistic "Wins Above Replacement Player." The calculations differ slightly -- for instance, fWAR uses FIP in determining pitcher WAR, while bWAR uses RA9. But all three stats answer the same question: How valuable is a player in comparison to replacement level?

Why it's useful

WAR quantifies each player's value in terms of a specific numbers of wins. And because WAR factors in a positional adjustment, it is well suited for comparing players who man different defensive positions.

Source - mlb.com

Thank you, but I could read that from now until the end of the season and still not have a clue what it means.    

I guess after a century plus the baseball boys decided to enter the computer age; wish they hadn't.    All I know is after 55 years of watching, I know a good player when I see one and Urshela is a good player.  

[Craig Arko]

Seems to me he’s getting a shot. I remember with Polanco he was up and down for short bursts for a couple of seasons, despite hitting pretty well when getting those opportunities. 

[Mark G]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Urshela is not even close to the best defensive 3B in the league (whether you mean majors or just American). He's a fine defensive 3B and the defensive stats probably undervalue him a little, but he's not in the same universe as the Chapman, Machado, Arenado, Ke'Bryans of the world. It's not even a debate. He's not in their league. Go look at some of their highlights. You'll see 10 plays from each that are more impressive than the one you provided of Urshela.

It's always a debate; that is what we are doing, isn't it?    

Seriously, analytics aside.  I always have, and always will live by the eye test, and I like what I see in Urshela.  And since I can't have any of the 4 you listed,  then maybe the debate is should Urshela or Miranda be in the position?  And since Urshela is already there and doing fine, and we don't have a steady DH, hhmmmmm.....you were right; there is no debate.    

[jimbo92107]

Perfect observations, sound conclusions, logical suggestions. 

If we all yell at our computers, will the FO hear us?

[Doctor Gast]

I like Miranda, he could have some time at 2B (his preference position), maybe DH, 1B platoon, some time at 3B to spell Urshella. But to say Miranda deserves to take time away time from proven veterans , I don't think so. Does Miranda need to play more? the answer is yes. But in a year where we have a good chance to go to the post season we can't give rookie experience just to do so. Miranda's extensive playing time should be in AAA.

Sano will return sooner than we'd like, I'm afraid Miranda will be force down to AAA until FO figure out what to do wilh Sano. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It's always a debate; that is what we are doing, isn't it?    

Seriously, analytics aside.  I always have, and always will live by the eye test, and I like what I see in Urshela.  And since I can't have any of the 4 you listed,  then maybe the debate is should Urshela or Miranda be in the position?  And since Urshela is already there and doing fine, and we don't have a steady DH, hhmmmmm.....you were right; there is no debate.    

There's no reasonable debate about Urshela being the best defensive 3B in the league as was claimed. Unreasonable people can make the claim. That doesn't make it a debate, it just means people are allowed to say what they want on the internet, even if what they say is not based in reality.

Urshela is a fine fielder. He's not elite, but he's not bad. If you want to claim he's better than the average 3B I wouldn't really fight too hard. But any test will show he's not even close to the guys I named (and a couple others I didn't). Eye test, analytics test, asking unbiased baseball people test, whatever test you choose. With the current options the Twins have Urshela at 3B and Miranda DHing makes a ton of sense. When Polanco and Sano are healthy the situation changes and playing Urshela at 3B may not be such a clear cut idea. Will be interesting to see what happens when (if?) everyone gets healthy. If the difference in batting lines stays what it has been recently I'd 100% start Miranda at 3B over Urshela since Urshela's glove doesn't make up for that much hitting difference.

[h2oface]

Miranda's best position seems to be DH. He needs to hit more consistently, though. 

It is very disappointing that the Twins don't develop defense. Prospect after prospect can't field worth a damn but can hit. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He has played 17 out of a possible 20 games so far this month but the Twins aren't investing in their future unless he's at 3B every single game? 

The Twins have a safety net, albeit a meh one, in place if Miranda regresses, and they have a real shot at the postseason, but let's put that in jeopardy for essentially no reason?

The beautiful part about the stars aligning is that it's always next year...

How many of those games were at 3B and how many were at 1B?  Most were at 1B because Kirilloff was out, so you are just seeing what you want to see.  The past will not reflect the future with Kirilloff and Polanco back.  In addition, it is very doubtful that Urshela at 3B vs Miranda makes any difference at all in the Twins making the post season.   Yes, Miranda started out slow but his wRC+ in June is 137 vs 106 for Urshela.  There is more upside to Miranda.  Plus, I seriously doubt Urshela is here next year so yes giving Miranda ABs in place of Urshela is investing in the future.  Yes, we could DH him some but those ABs should be taken by Arraez when Polanco is back.  Sano might come into play as well.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're not wrong about Urshela's value/contributions to the team moving forward, but Miranda hasn't exactly lit it up at 3B this year. Gio is probably at best an average defensive third basemen; Miranda is worse. I don't understand why the Twins need to downgrade defensively at 3B when they can keep Miranda's bat in the lineup without having to do so.  

Personally, I think Urshela is better than average. But that's not the point here. Just to be clear, I don't advocate Miranda replacing Urshela at this time. He has the better bat...period...and is part of the future while Urshela is probably not. And I think we agree on that.

In a playoff hunt, I can understand not replacing a good player with one potentially better, but maybe less proven. And again, I'm not saying bench Urshela. I'm just asking for a better balancing act where Miranda gets a little more time at 3B. I mean, have we even seen enough of him to even make a fair judgement as to his defensive potential at 3B?

To ramble and digress a bit, I can recall Gaetti and Koskie coming up back in the day, whom I've alluded to previously here and there, as being reported butchers with the glove. Turned out a little time, hard work and experience and they were excellent glove men as well as big bats. Plouffe and Cuddyer are similar examples, to a somewhat smaller degree. A pair of failed SS, one who turned in to a solid 3B for a few years, one who was OK at 3B, but became a much better OF. Of course, there are other examples and other positions. But the point is until someone plays a position and gets a real opportunity, we just don't know how good he might be there. (Or bad).

Keep Urshela as the primary 3B for now as long as he's performing. But simply balance today and tomorrow a bit more and let the younger player and better bat Miranda get a few more opportunities at 3B. 

And keep putting a good bat in at DH, Miranda or anyone else, and not fill a name on the lineup card just because someone is a veteran.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Personally, I think Urshela is better than average. But that's not the point here. Just to be clear, I don't advocate Miranda replacing Urshela at this time. He has the better bat...period...and is part of the future while Urshela is probably not. And I think we agree on that.

In a playoff hunt, I can understand not replacing a good player with one potentially better, but maybe less proven. And again, I'm not saying bench Urshela. I'm just asking for a better balancing act where Miranda gets a little more time at 3B. I mean, have we even seen enough of him to even make a fair judgement as to his defensive potential at 3B?

To ramble and digress a bit, I can recall Gaetti and Koskie coming up back in the day, whom I've alluded to previously here and there, as being reported butchers with the glove. Turned out a little time, hard work and experience and they were excellent glove men as well as big bats. Plouffe and Cuddyer are similar examples, to a somewhat smaller degree. A pair of failed SS, one who turned in to a solid 3B for a few years, one who was OK at 3B, but became a much better OF. Of course, there are other examples and other positions. But the point is until someone plays a position and gets a real opportunity, we just don't know how good he might be there. (Or bad).

Keep Urshela as the primary 3B for now as long as he's performing. But simply balance today and tomorrow a bit more and let the younger player and better bat Miranda get a few more opportunities at 3B. 

And keep putting a good bat in at DH, Miranda or anyone else, and not fill a name on the lineup card just because someone is a veteran.

Twins do not have time to be a AAA learning team; fan attendance magnifies that.

[chpettit19]

Ask and you shall receive...

Miranda at DH tonight.

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Roy Smalley said on the Twins telecast that Urshela was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league and I agree. I also agree with you that Urshela has played a level of defense at 3rd that I just haven’t seen in years. Rocco Baldelli said that Urshela’s defense was exceptional and he had a very high IQ for the game. I loathe those SABR defensive statistics. They’re so out of touch with what solid baseball men can easily see. Especially Smalley who has a brilliant baseball mind. After all he’s Gene Mauch’s nephew and Mauch was a tactical genius.

Urshela has made difficult plays look easy, I've watched a lot of baseball this season, and I've not seen any third basemen make plays the way Gio has. He definitely has to be in the conversation for the Gold Glove at 3rd, 

[Mortimerkenny21]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ask and you shall receive...

Miranda at DH tonight.

They're reading TD again! ?

[PatPfund]

The OP is dead on as far as I'm concerned. The catchers should split time, and rarely DH (Sanchez has been a nice surprise on the O side, but only in a catcher context). Miranda has been one of the Twins' best bats this month, and he started only one game of the Cleveland series. Playing Kiriloff a lot at 1B makes sense; he already looks like the best defender there, but...

...they should also be giving him some games in the outfield; Alex played his first ever MLB game in RF in the playoffs, and looked calmly good there. Larnach's regression at the plate this month at least opens a window for a game or two a week in LF.

I love Gio's great plays. Love them. But I also get the knock on him, and frankly if Franmil Reyes hadn't let up running home yesterday it would be tougher to claim Gio as a lockdown 3B today (Gio totally boots a short grounder that could have been an inning ending double play, leaving him just a throw to home that might have been late if Reyes hustles all the way). You certainly can't hurt Urshela by giving him an extra day or two off and playing Miranda at third.

If the debate here is whether or not Miranda is a top prospect, I'll take any number of "top prospect" lists that listed Miranda in the top few pre-season, or the fact that he is the reigning Twins Minor League Player of the Year, or the fact that he's hit over .300 with pop since his recall (while playing mostly out of position), or even the fact that a team like the A's would probably demand him in a Montas trade package over some random blog comments to the contrary.

(Also, the Twins aren't exactly enhancing any trade value by sitting him a lot, though he did come within a few feet of walking off the Guardians the other day as a pinch-hitter.)

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Polanco is also someone a team trying to improve would agree to take in a trade (probably along with a prospect or two) for someone who might help them now.

What exactly do you think a team would give in a trade for Polanco? Miami needs offense. Would they trade Alcantara? This isn't Buxton, Polanco has a friendly contract and is proven on both sides of the ball. The return would need to be massive. What suggestions might you forward that would sound enticing to the Twins? No player is untouchable in the Twins entire system. We do not have a Trout or Soto. Give us an idea or two to consider because I actually cannot think of one.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

Seriously?  What if Arraez replaced him?  Or Miranda?  What was the stat when Urshela "replaced" Donaldson?  

In other words, what if a AAA never enters the picture?  What happens to the stat? 

The stat is designed to evaluate a player's value. Not that specific player's value to their specific team assuming that team's likely depth chart. Byron Buxton's value deflates enormously if you assume Max Kepler is the replacement.

[RpR]

43 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

The OP is dead on as far as I'm concerned. The catchers should split time, and rarely DH (Sanchez has been a nice surprise on the O side, but only in a catcher context). Miranda has been one of the Twins' best bats this month, and he started only one game of the Cleveland series. Playing Kiriloff a lot at 1B makes sense; he already looks like the best defender there, but...

...they should also be giving him some games in the outfield; Alex played his first ever MLB game in RF in the playoffs, and looked calmly good there. Larnach's regression at the plate this month at least opens a window for a game or two a week in LF.

I love Gio's great plays. Love them. But I also get the knock on him, and frankly if Franmil Reyes hadn't let up running home yesterday it would be tougher to claim Gio as a lockdown 3B today (Gio totally boots a short grounder that could have been an inning ending double play, leaving him just a throw to home that might have been late if Reyes hustles all the way). You certainly can't hurt Urshela by giving him an extra day or two off and playing Miranda at third.

If the debate here is whether or not Miranda is a top prospect, I'll take any number of "top prospect" lists that listed Miranda in the top few pre-season, or the fact that he is the reigning Twins Minor League Player of the Year, or the fact that he's hit over .300 with pop since his recall (while playing mostly out of position), or even the fact that a team like the A's would probably demand him in a Montas trade package over some random blog comments to the contrary.

(Also, the Twins aren't exactly enhancing any trade value by sitting him a lot, though he did come within a few feet of walking off the Guardians the other day as a pinch-hitter.)

Multiple Twins have been a few feet short of a run/s lately; whether it is ten feet or one foot short, makes zero difference.

[Shaitan]

5 hours ago, ChineseGandalf said:

Honestly I am not convinced that Miranda should be starting over Urshela at third or Arraez/Kiriloff at first. However, those are not the only roles for him. There is an obvious role - DH, that as far as I can recall, he has not played at all since being called up. Why are we DHing one of Sanchez/Jeffers? Miranda is a significant upgrade on either of those two as the DH. 

Jeffers is hitting decently well right now, and Sanchez can hit alright, but neither are what you really want in a DH. In fact, for most of the year Jeffers has been unplayable as a bat, and Sanchez has recently come back to earth a bit. We should at least give Miranda the DH over those two. 

I wonder if DH or backup catcher might be a deadline acquisition.

Put Sanchez at C1, send Jeffers to AAA to find his bat. Get a quality C2.

That would free DH for others. It's probably really a question as to what the FO thinks of Jeffers' defense right now and it overshadows some of his struggles. Because to ironically reference the concept of this whole discussion, I do think Jeffers is the kind of prospect who needs daily/regular AB.

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Put Sanchez at C1, send Jeffers to AAA to find his bat. Get a quality C2.

That does require a 40-man move.  Godoy goes in return for whatever trade package?  Or just DFA I suppose.  Either way, no likelihood of keeping 4 catchers on the roster, in this scenario.  So, "what was your favorite José Godoy moment?"

[tony&rodney]

One thing not mentioned thus far regarding Miranda is that he deserves a better number. How about #8 or #9?

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What exactly do you think a team would give in a trade for Polanco? Miami needs offense. Would they trade Alcantara? This isn't Buxton, Polanco has a friendly contract and is proven on both sides of the ball. The return would need to be massive. What suggestions might you forward that would sound enticing to the Twins? No player is untouchable in the Twins entire system. We do not have a Trout or Soto. Give us an idea or two to consider because I actually cannot think of one.

How about Polanco, Steer, and Sands for Alcantara?

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How many of those games were at 3B and how many were at 1B?  Most were at 1B because Kirilloff was out, so you are just seeing what you want to see.  The past will not reflect the future with Kirilloff and Polanco back.  In addition, it is very doubtful that Urshela at 3B vs Miranda makes any difference at all in the Twins making the post season.   Yes, Miranda started out slow but his wRC+ in June is 137 vs 106 for Urshela.  There is more upside to Miranda.  Plus, I seriously doubt Urshela is here next year so yes giving Miranda ABs in place of Urshela is investing in the future.  Yes, we could DH him some but those ABs should be taken by Arraez when Polanco is back.  Sano might come into play as well.

Counting tonight he's played in 6 of 7 games since Kirilloff's return, but I guess I'm seeing things...

Are they currently investing in Miranda or not? That was what I asked. Don't shift the goalposts to hypothetical future usage. The Twins don't need to lock in an inferior defender at 3B to get Miranda ABs. 

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Here’s a play by the average at best defensive third baseman. It might be the best defensive play I’ve ever see a 3rd baseman make.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Urshela has made difficult plays look easy, I've watched a lot of baseball this season, and I've not seen any third basemen make plays the way Gio has. He definitely has to be in the conversation for the Gold Glove at 3rd, 

-5 OAA and a DRS of 0 but we're giving him a Gold Glove...

[Mark G]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Multiple Twins have been a few feet short of a run/s lately; whether it is ten feet or one foot short, makes zero difference.

Agreed!  And to piggy back on that thought, I have always wondered why so many people care about the mph numbers off the bat, or how hard a ball was hit.  If I know Max is going to pull the ball into the shift. I make the shift, and I pitch him in a location where he does, indeed, hit it into the shift, why do I care how hard he hits it at somebody.  All the exit velocity you can muster is nice in analytics, but you are still out.  To me, it is the least meaningful stat in the bunch.  Hit it at somebody and it doesn't matter how hard you hit it.  Hit it where they ain't, and it doesn't matter how hard you hit it.    

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 

-5 OAA and a DRS of 0 but we're giving him a Gold Glove...

I remember a day on another planet when a gold glove had nothing to do with the alphabet or the arithmetic table, just the WOW factor and how often you found yourself saying WOW!  Urshela has made me say WOW more this year than any year I can remember at 3B.  He reminds me a lot of how Mientkiewicz played the other side (and he won 2 gold gloves).  I wonder how Doug would be graded today?  

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I remember a day on another planet when a gold glove had nothing to do with the alphabet or the arithmetic table, just the WOW factor and how often you found yourself saying WOW!  Urshela has made me say WOW more this year than any year I can remember at 3B.  He reminds me a lot of how Mientkiewicz played the other side (and he won 2 gold gloves).  I wonder how Doug would be graded today?  

Actually, on much closer scrutiny, they listed the gold glove twice for the same year; only one gold glove.    

[KirbyDome89]

9 hours ago, Mark G said:

I remember a day on another planet when a gold glove had nothing to do with the alphabet or the arithmetic table, just the WOW factor and how often you found yourself saying WOW!  Urshela has made me say WOW more this year than any year I can remember at 3B.  He reminds me a lot of how Mientkiewicz played the other side (and he won 2 gold gloves).  I wonder how Doug would be graded today?  

Better defenders make the "WOW," plays look routine. It's that simple.

[Greglw3]

13 hours ago, Mark G said:

I remember a day on another planet when a gold glove had nothing to do with the alphabet or the arithmetic table, just the WOW factor and how often you found yourself saying WOW!  Urshela has made me say WOW more this year than any year I can remember at 3B.  He reminds me a lot of how Mientkiewicz played the other side (and he won 2 gold gloves).  I wonder how Doug would be graded today?  

 

13 hours ago, Mark G said:

I remember a day on another planet when a gold glove had nothing to do with the alphabet or the arithmetic table, just the WOW factor and how often you found yourself saying WOW!  Urshela has made me say WOW more this year than any year I can remember at 3B.  He reminds me a lot of how Mientkiewicz played the other side (and he won 2 gold gloves).  I wonder how Doug would be graded today?  

OAA is complete garbage.

[MGM4706]

Miranda has not shown he can hit a major league curveball. Much like Sano. Why teams ever throw him a fastball is a mystery. And is liability in the field. Not just his glove but his thought process. Twins moved him in at 1st a couple games ago to cut down a run at the plate.  Everyone knows what that means. Catch the ball and throw home. Well they hit him the ball but he took a step back toward first and then threw home. Runner safe. Why did he think they had him playing in? That is baseball 101! And Gio is just fine at 3rd. Miranda may need another year in St. Paul.

[William K Johnson]

No way he plays ahead of Urshela.    Kiriloff should be at 1st with Miranda DH'ing against left handers.   Agree that both Sanchez and Jeffers in a lineup is really challenging.     Larnach needs more seasoning, the strikeouts are crippling.    Leadoff double the other night and a simple ball in play to the right side, followed by a fly ball to the outfield (which we got), scores a run.   Instead, we get nothing and lose by 1.    The reason Cleveland is successful is they put the ball in play.