Jose Miranda Deserves a Shot

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Gio is definitely just fine. I'd be fine with giving him the majority of the time at 3B. I just don't think he's good enough to play 7 days per week with no question of anybody else ever stepping in.

I get people's worry about Miranda's defense, he's been terrible at 1B. 3B is his primary position though and he has such a small sample playing there in the majors so far to judge too harshly. Just wish we'd see him there a little more so we could fairly evaluate.

In the multiple seasons of managing Baldelli has had only one player play nearly every game prt year. 7 day a week player is not the Twins way. SSS but Miranda is -2 DRS at 3B. He has had like 1000 innings at 3B. It would be reasonable to think that the player and the organization knows his capabilities at the position.

[Dave The Dastardly]

9 minutes ago, Murph said:

Best comment in this thread.  The Twins' losses are due to poor pitching and defense. Pitching and defense wins and loses games.  Period.  Until the Twins step up their defense and bullpen, they can score 10 runs, and it STILL won't be enough.  

Miranda is not ready to be in the field.  Urshela is!  Miranda is a disaster at 1B.  And Kirilloff was signed as an outfielder and has played almost no 1B.  Look it up!  

When Polanco comes off the IL, Arraez should go back to 1B and leave him there.  

Night after night - the Twins have too many rookies (minor leaguers) in their lineup.

Can't agree with you on the rookie thing. The current Twins are not a playoff team. Cleveland just proved that. And a team doesn't "improve" by keeping average players in the lineup when it has rookies that may be better. But the only way you can prove a rookie can do a better than average job, is to play them. A lot. And give them all the chances in the world to play at the position they have been trained for at the level of competition you need them to play at. If you have to play them at a new position, then its only fair to cut them some slack while they adapt instead of immediately condemning their performance and ruling them a disaster.

I've been preaching all year that this season is for the Twins to kick the tires on their prospects if they want to be a playoff team next season. Witness the negative effect  the absence of Sano and Donaldson has had. None. Yet the 2022 team is better than the 2021 team because getting rid of those two made room for Arraez and the rookies. Yeah, the rookies will make mistakes, but that's how rookies learn. And if they get enough playing time this year, they won't be rookies next season.

[Mike Sixel]

Wowsers. The dude is on pace to play 126 games, if he had been up all year, and people think he's not playing enough....

Arraez should be the DH and Kiriloff the first baseman. That leaves third base on a regular basis. I don't love Gio, but I'm not sure if Miranda is any better or not. I am not sure I understand the certainty of so many here that Miranda would be better. This is a playoff caliber team, and people want to insert an unknown at third full time? 

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

For what it's worth, Urshela and Arraez are miles apart in terms of how valuable they've been this year. Arraez is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement, Urshela is 12th. Barely ahead of Nick Gordon who plays 3 days per week. Just two days ago Urshela came in at 0 Wins Above Replacement.

Can I ask a serious question about this?  Exactly what constitutes "replacement"?  Whomever takes his place that day from our roster, or other players around the league?  I have never understood that stat, as I have never understood whether there is a consensus on the definition of "replacement".  

[dex8425]

8 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Can I ask a serious question about this?  Exactly what constitutes "replacement"?  Whomever takes his place that day from our roster, or other players around the league?  I have never understood that stat, as I have never understood whether there is a consensus on the definition of "replacement".  

WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement Joe Schmoe or a readily available fill-in free agent or waiver wire claim). 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wowsers. The dude is on pace to play 126 games, if he had been up all year, and people think he's not playing enough....

Arraez should be the DH and Kiriloff the first baseman. That leaves third base on a regular basis. I don't love Gio, but I'm not sure if Miranda is any better or not. I am not sure I understand the certainty of so many here that Miranda would be better. This is a playoff caliber team, and people want to insert an unknown at third full time? 

I would be more inclined to agree if we agreed on the merit of "playoff caliber".  They are only a playoff team because they are in the weakest division.  They would not be a playoff team in any of the other 5 MLB divisions.  The Twins ranking with oddsmakers is around 14-15th.  We can continue to do the same old thing or we can build a legit playoff team.  That can be done to some degree with free agent spending but only in the top revenue teams.  It can be done by trading away the future if you want to take a 2 year run at a WS or it can be done by investing in young players.  Part of that investment is playing time at the MLB level.

Do we want a band aid to get us through a season with a fringe playoff team or do we want a long-term solution.  I would much rather have Miranda at 3B next year and an $8M RP acquired with the salary difference or the salary difference contributing to bringing on Willson Contreras or Joe Musgrove.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

While I feel the use of the word "Crippling" is a little pre-mature and dramatic,  I do agree with what your article is saying. 

Many moons ago when Miranda was struggling I felt he should have been sent down but they sent down Lewis instead and provided Miranda with plenty of playing time while he was struggling. 

Now... Miranda seems to have straightened out a bit and now the playing time isn't as available. I understand that we are healthier than we were back then but this is kinda backwards.    

You are absolutely correct. Sanchez can yield some playing time to give Miranda more playing time. Urshela can yield some playing time to give Miranda more playing time. KIrilloff can also play OF so that means Kirilloff, Kepler and Larnach can yield playing time and nobody has to sacrifice significant playing time to make it happen. 

If you want to simplify it and just compare Miranda to Sanchez without factoring in everybody else.

Both are righthanded

Miranda has an OPS of .874 over the last 30 days - Sanchez has an OPS of .653. This suggests that Miranda is hitting better than Sanchez right now. 

Miranda will be a free agent in 2029 - Sanchez will be a free agent at the end of this season. 

This suggests that Miranda is clearly the better choice for our future.

The combination of playing better right now and a potentially long future with our club makes the consistent selection of Sanchez somewhat curious to me. 

 

Miranda has played in 19 out of 23 games, starting 16 of them. Miranda has not sat an inordinate amount  of games. 

[ashbury]

If Gio could be traded for pitching, the Yankees like any team would surely have done so.

Playing a video game such as OOTP, I'll trade Gio for whatever small value I can get, preferably in some kind of package trade for a stud (because the AI in games always makes other GMs vulnerable to that kind of offer).  In the real world, though, I don't believe Gio would be a part of a trade for Montas or Castillo, and I'm not even sure you can get a stud reliever for him.  And then there's the PR hit for trading away a player that fans seem to like, in the middle of a winning season.

For this season I think we just muddle through with Miranda and get him as many ABs as possible in the environment.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wowsers. The dude is on pace to play 126 games, if he had been up all year, and people think he's not playing enough....

Arraez should be the DH and Kiriloff the first baseman. That leaves third base on a regular basis. I don't love Gio, but I'm not sure if Miranda is any better or not. I am not sure I understand the certainty of so many here that Miranda would be better. This is a playoff caliber team, and people want to insert an unknown at third full time? 

In the opening paragraphs the OP seems to think that Miranda is not playing much and the loyal fans do not dispute it. It could have meant that he only plays a few games a week at third base, but I am not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. The Twins have seen Miranda play for 6 years. They have an idea of what his ceiling is as a fielder. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Can I ask a serious question about this?  Exactly what constitutes "replacement"?  Whomever takes his place that day from our roster, or other players around the league?  I have never understood that stat, as I have never understood whether there is a consensus on the definition of "replacement".  

Replacement is an expected performance of an average AAA player.

[bean5302]

Urshela
Apr - .279/.348/.328 wRC+ 99
May - .256/.307/.433 wRC+ 108
Jun - .254/.296/.433 wRC+ 106

While Urshela has seen some pop return to his bat after a cool start to the season, it's not like his overall bat has improved much. Unfortunately, moving a weak value third baseman may not be all that easy. Most contending teams are in good shape at the hot corner. The Angels just lost Anthony Rendon and Urshela would slide in nicely as a replacement there if Minnesota was willing to eat some salary, but not sure there's a good fit outside the Angels, who may be sellers rather than buyers.
 

[DocBauer]

It's not Miranda on pace for 126 games played. It's the way in which he's being used for that 126 games that is being called in to question, IMO. 

I like Urshela a lot. I've seen him fail to make a few plays, but not that many. And I love the big time, standout plays he's made. And his bat is solid. Not great, but solid. And he seems well liked and a good guy. 

But Miranda is a top prospect. He has a much better bat and is actually part of the future. I'm all in favor of his continuing to learn and play 1B for roster construction and flexibility, but how does a top prospect develop and show how good they can be when they don't hardly play their primary position?

Again, I like Urshela. If he can fit roster wise, I'd like to have him for 2023 playing across the infield, (though I know he's limited in experience at 1B/2B). But he's not good enough, special enough, part of the future probably, to just take up 90% of the time at 3B ahead of a top prospect who can only get better when allowed to do so.

Don't even get me started on the catcher at DH scenario 

[Azviking101]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been an Urshela supporter from day1.  However, I would trade him at the deadline if the return was decent and insert Miranda at 3B for the rest of the season.  Steer is waiting in the wings if Miranda can't handle the job.

Concur. Might be able to get a nice bullpen piece for him and a low minors flyer. 

The biggest issue I see here is teams making trades at the deadline are looking to add or subtract major leauge talent. It's very rare you see a team add to one part of the team while subtracting from the other. It's rare to see two teams all in trading with each other at the deadline. If the Twins are in and trading for pitching help, a guy like Gio is either a throw in for salary reasons or not traded at all.

[Riverbrian]

46 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Miranda has played in 19 out of 23 games, starting 16 of them. Miranda has not sat an inordinate amount  of games. 

Agreed... I don't really have a tremendous complaint with how Baldelli is working players in. I want him to work all players in. 

However, there has been a recent shift since Kirilloff has been called up. 

Miranda 3 starts

Sanchez 6 starts

Urshela 6 starts

Kirilloff 5 starts

Larnach 5 starts

I also understand that we have faced 5 RH starters in a row so I get it but I'm also hoping he doesn't get short sided with the Kirilloff addition. 

I'm just responding to the article while also hoping the recent shift isn't a trend.  

 

All good

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I would be more inclined to agree if we agreed on the merit of "playoff caliber".  They are only a playoff team because they are in the weakest division.  They would not be a playoff team in any of the other 5 MLB divisions.  Their rankings with oddsmakers is around 14-15th.  We can continue to do the same old thing or we can build a legit playoff team.  That can be done to some degree with free agent spending but only in the top revenue teams.  It can be done by trading away the future if you want to take a 2 year run at a WS or it can be done by investing in young players.  Part of that investment is playing time at the MLB level.

Do we want a band aid to get us through a season with a fringe playoff team or do we want a long-term solution.  I would much rather have Miranda at 3B next year and an $8M RP acquired with the salary difference or the salary difference contributing to bringing on Willson Contreras or Joe Musgrove.

Who is your SS next year? Because you don't keep CC and sign two big time players, probably not even one. Why do we think the other teams won't be better next year, but the twins will? If a team that is on pace for ninety wins isn't going to try to win, why will next year's team? 

[KirbyDome89]

50 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would be more inclined to agree if we agreed on the merit of "playoff caliber".  They are only a playoff team because they are in the weakest division.  They would not be a playoff team in any of the other 5 MLB divisions.  Their rankings with oddsmakers is around 14-15th.  We can continue to do the same old thing or we can build a legit playoff team.  That can be done to some degree with free agent spending but only in the top revenue teams.  It can be done by trading away the future if you want to take a 2 year run at a WS or it can be done by investing in young players.  Part of that investment is playing time at the MLB level.

Do we want a band aid to get us through a season with a fringe playoff team or do we want a long-term solution.  I would much rather have Miranda at 3B next year and an $8M RP acquired with the salary difference or the salary difference contributing to bringing on Willson Contreras or Joe Musgrove.

He has played 17 out of a possible 20 games so far this month but the Twins aren't investing in their future unless he's at 3B every single game? 

The Twins have a safety net, albeit a meh one, in place if Miranda regresses, and they have a real shot at the postseason, but let's put that in jeopardy for essentially no reason?

The beautiful part about the stars aligning is that it's always next year...

[Shaitan]

Alternate take:

Miranda is performing better of late because the Twins are putting him in a position to succeed instead of just throwing him out there every day.

As others have stated, he plays far more than 1-2 times per week. He'll get his chances. If he excels he'll play more.

[roger]

27 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

It's not Miranda on pace for 126 games played. It's the way in which he's being used for that 126 games that is being called in to question, IMO. 

I like Urshela a lot. I've seen him fail to make a few plays, but not that many. And I love the big time, standout plays he's made. And his bat is solid. Not great, but solid. And he seems well liked and a good guy. 

But Miranda is a top prospect. He has a much better bat and is actually part of the future. I'm all in favor of his continuing to learn and play 1B for roster construction and flexibility, but how does a top prospect develop and show how good they can be when they don't hardly play their primary position?

Again, I like Urshela. If he can fit roster wise, I'd like to have him for 2023 playing across the infield, (though I know he's limited in experience at 1B/2B). But he's not good enough, special enough, part of the future probably, to just take up 90% of the time at 3B ahead of a top prospect who can only get better when allowed to do so.

Don't even get me started on the catcher at DH scenario 

I liked your post, Doc.  And then I read your last sentence.  Can I like it twice?  And thanks for bringing me a good smile.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who is your SS next year? Because you don't keep CC and sign two big time players, probably not even one. Why do we think the other teams won't be better next year, but the twins will? If a team that is on pace for ninety wins isn't going to try to win, why will next year's team? 

Are people (not you) saying that the twins traded a former 1st round pick and pretty high pitching prospect and paid a guy 35 million this year with an opt out at the end of the year, so they could play rookies and young guys this year and plan on competing in 2 or 3 years?

IMO they brought in guys to compete this year and traded Rogers because they got a couple of good/decent pitchers with a couple of years of control for a guy they had no intention on signing and no intention on trading away with in a pennant race.

I also believe they thought they would be running all the young guys out and seeing what they had, just kind of happened all at once with the injuries.

 

[Shaitan]

I think the real debate here is:

Is Miranda a top prospect or an "average" prospect?

The OP, for example, compares Miranda to Lewis. I do not see Miranda at that level.

[ChineseGandalf]

Honestly I am not convinced that Miranda should be starting over Urshela at third or Arraez/Kiriloff at first. However, those are not the only roles for him. There is an obvious role - DH, that as far as I can recall, he has not played at all since being called up. Why are we DHing one of Sanchez/Jeffers? Miranda is a significant upgrade on either of those two as the DH. 

Jeffers is hitting decently well right now, and Sanchez can hit alright, but neither are what you really want in a DH. In fact, for most of the year Jeffers has been unplayable as a bat, and Sanchez has recently come back to earth a bit. We should at least give Miranda the DH over those two. 

[KirbyDome89]

59 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

It's not Miranda on pace for 126 games played. It's the way in which he's being used for that 126 games that is being called in to question, IMO. 

I like Urshela a lot. I've seen him fail to make a few plays, but not that many. And I love the big time, standout plays he's made. And his bat is solid. Not great, but solid. And he seems well liked and a good guy. 

But Miranda is a top prospect. He has a much better bat and is actually part of the future. I'm all in favor of his continuing to learn and play 1B for roster construction and flexibility, but how does a top prospect develop and show how good they can be when they don't hardly play their primary position?

Again, I like Urshela. If he can fit roster wise, I'd like to have him for 2023 playing across the infield, (though I know he's limited in experience at 1B/2B). But he's not good enough, special enough, part of the future probably, to just take up 90% of the time at 3B ahead of a top prospect who can only get better when allowed to do so.

Don't even get me started on the catcher at DH scenario 

You're not wrong about Urshela's value/contributions to the team moving forward, but Miranda hasn't exactly lit it up at 3B this year. Gio is probably at best an average defensive third basemen; Miranda is worse. I don't understand why the Twins need to downgrade defensively at 3B when they can keep Miranda's bat in the lineup without having to do so.  

[Greglw3]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

I guess I will be the lone voice again, but I have seen enough of Urshela to have seen things I haven't seen in years at 3B.  His bat is so so, but I love the left side with him and Correa defensively, and we have bats that can make up for him when he is lagging.  I would like to see Miranda DH instead of Sanchez or Jeffers, absolutely, and sprinkle in a little 3rd now and then to keep him as sharp as possible, but putting him at 3rd the majority of the time is wasting a talent in Urshela that I think is worth keeping on the field.  If it is such a problem, trade one of them, but don't put Urshela on the pine. 

Isn't the DH for players who can hit but struggle in the field?  The question is:  does that describe Miranda?  If so, the answer is self evident; if it doesn't, find a spot for him, but don't sacrifice the left side defense.  

I agree with you Mark. One easy solution would be to start Sanchez 70% at C, Jeffers 30% and have Miranda DH full time. I calculated his batting average a few days back starting on May 20. It was .343. Hmm. .345, .344, .343, AA, AAA, MLB. I’ve been assured by Latroy and Roy Smalley that they and the Twins have no doubt he’s gonna hit.

I also agree with you on Urshela. Roy Smalley said on the Twins telecast that Urshela was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league and I agree. I also agree with you that Urshela has played a level of defense at 3rd that I just haven’t seen in years. Rocco Baldelli said that Urshela’s defense was exceptional and he had a very high IQ for the game. I loathe those SABR defensive statistics. They’re so out of touch with what solid baseball men can easily see. Especially Smalley who has a brilliant baseball mind. After all he’s Gene Mauch’s nephew and Mauch was a tactical genius.

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Replacement is an expected performance of an average AAA player.

Seriously?  What if Arraez replaced him?  Or Miranda?  What was the stat when Urshela "replaced" Donaldson?  

In other words, what if a AAA never enters the picture?  What happens to the stat? 

[Greglw3]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're not wrong about Urshela's value/contributions to the team moving forward, but Miranda hasn't exactly lit it up at 3B this year. Gio is probably at best an average defensive third basemen; Miranda is worse. I don't understand why the Twins need to downgrade defensively at 3B when they can keep Miranda's bat in the lineup without having to do so.  

Here’s a play by the average at best defensive third baseman. It might be the best defensive play I’ve ever see a 3rd baseman make.

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

Can I ask a serious question about this?  Exactly what constitutes "replacement"?  Whomever takes his place that day from our roster, or other players around the league?  I have never understood that stat, as I have never understood whether there is a consensus on the definition of "replacement".  

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Definition

WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).

For example, if a shortstop and a first baseman offer the same overall production (on offense, defense and the basepaths), the shortstop will have a better WAR because his position sees a lower level of production from replacement-level players.

The formula

For position players: (The number of runs above average a player is worth in his batting, baserunning and fielding + adjustment for position + adjustment for league + the number of runs provided by a replacement-level player) / runs per win

For pitchers: Different WAR computations use either RA9 or FIP. Those numbers are adjusted for league and ballpark. Then, using league averages, it is determined how many wins a pitcher was worth based on those numbers and his innings pitched total.

Note: fWAR refers to Fangraphs' calculation of WAR. bWAR or rWAR refer to Baseball-Reference's calculation. And WARP refers to Baseball Prospectus' statistic "Wins Above Replacement Player." The calculations differ slightly -- for instance, fWAR uses FIP in determining pitcher WAR, while bWAR uses RA9. But all three stats answer the same question: How valuable is a player in comparison to replacement level?

Why it's useful

WAR quantifies each player's value in terms of a specific numbers of wins. And because WAR factors in a positional adjustment, it is well suited for comparing players who man different defensive positions.

Source - mlb.com

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with you Mark. One easy solution would be to start Sanchez 70% at C, Jeffers 30% and have Miranda DH full time. I calculated his batting average a few days back starting on May 20. It was .343. Hmm. .345, .344, .343, AA, AAA, MLB. I’ve been assured by Latroy and Roy Smalley that they and the Twins have no doubt he’s gonna hit.

I also agree with you on Urshela. Roy Smalley said on the Twins telecast that Urshela was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league and I agree. I also agree with you that Urshela has played a level of defense at 3rd that I just haven’t seen in years. Rocco Baldelli said that Urshela’s defense was exceptional and he had a very high IQ for the game. I loathe those SABR DH defensive statistics. They’re so out of touch with what solid baseball men can easily see. Especially Smalley who has a brilliant baseball mind. After all he’s Gene Mauch’s nephew and Mauch was a tactical genius.

Where does Arraez play if not DH? If first, you are benching Kiriloff?

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Seriously?  What if Arraez replaced him?  Or Miranda?  What was the stat when Urshela "replaced" Donaldson?  

In other words, what if a AAA never enters the picture?  What happens to the stat? 

War allows you to compare Arraez to that player, and answer just that question. It's all explained online if you want to know. 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, ChineseGandalf said:

Honestly I am not convinced that Miranda should be starting over Urshela at third or Arraez/Kiriloff at first. However, those are not the only roles for him. There is an obvious role - DH, that as far as I can recall, he has not played at all since being called up. Why are we DHing one of Sanchez/Jeffers? Miranda is a significant upgrade on either of those two as the DH. 

Jeffers is hitting decently well right now, and Sanchez can hit alright, but neither are what you really want in a DH. In fact, for most of the year Jeffers has been unplayable as a bat, and Sanchez has recently come back to earth a bit. We should at least give Miranda the DH over those two. 

He has DHed twice in June, but I agree with the overall take that he should definitely be DHing over either of the catchers. For a multitude of reasons.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with you Mark. One easy solution would be to start Sanchez 70% at C, Jeffers 30% and have Miranda DH full time. I calculated his batting average a few days back starting on May 20. It was .343. Hmm. .345, .344, .343, AA, AAA, MLB. I’ve been assured by Latroy and Roy Smalley that they and the Twins have no doubt he’s gonna hit.

I also agree with you on Urshela. Roy Smalley said on the Twins telecast that Urshela was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league and I agree. I also agree with you that Urshela has played a level of defense at 3rd that I just haven’t seen in years. Rocco Baldelli said that Urshela’s defense was exceptional and he had a very high IQ for the game. I loathe those SABR defensive statistics. They’re so out of touch with what solid baseball men can easily see. Especially Smalley who has a brilliant baseball mind. After all he’s Gene Mauch’s nephew and Mauch was a tactical genius.

Urshela is not even close to the best defensive 3B in the league (whether you mean majors or just American). He's a fine defensive 3B and the defensive stats probably undervalue him a little, but he's not in the same universe as the Chapman, Machado, Arenado, Ke'Bryans of the world. It's not even a debate. He's not in their league. Go look at some of their highlights. You'll see 10 plays from each that are more impressive than the one you provided of Urshela.