Are the Twins Brewing up Steals in the Minors?

[Matt Braun]

Like the previous Gary Sánchez article, inspiration struck while I was writing the recent Minor League Week in Review piece. While skimming stats, I noticed that Matt Wallner had eight steals on the year. Wallner? Eight steals? Wasn’t he a big, lethargic slugger? Something seems afoot. I took a quick dive, and as it turns out, some interesting steal-related movements are occurring in the Twins’ minor league system.

 

Let’s look at his team specifically: the Wichita Wind Surge. Currently, they sit as the 3rd most steal-happy team in their division, the Texas League. The two most effective culprits are Austin Martin and DaShawn Keirsey, as Martin has 22 bags swiped under his name, and Kiersey has 18. Michael Helman has also broken double digits—without being caught as well—but no other player stands out like Martin and Kiersey. Instead, the team offers a democratic approach, with only one player, Catcher Alex Isola, lacking a successful steal so far this season.

For Martin, his stealing acumen appears to be a new or at least unreleased skill. He had a comparatively low 14 steals last year, holds a 50 FV grade in “Run” according to Fangraphs, and the only mention I can find about his speed on Fangraphs’ scouting reports is Eric Longenhagen calling it “solid.” Although, Jeffrey Paternostro at Baseball Prospectus noted that he “was aggressive on the basepaths” in college. Perhaps the Twins wanted to unleash a wild baserunner otherwise limited by the Blue Jays.

Wichita isn’t the only team running mayhem on the base paths. The Fort Myers Mighty Mussels are also 3rd in their division in burglary. Mikey Perez alone has gotten away with an otherworldly 24 steals—a total that defines him as the 19th most prolific stealer in Minor League Baseball. Noah Miller, Jake Rucker, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Daniel Ozoria join Perez as double-digit swipers; like Wichita, their catchers, Kyle Schmidt and Dillon Tatum, are the only regular players without a steal.

Slight tangent: Mikey Perez is an enigma. I’ve been writing about his great play all year, but I can barely find any information on him. No one at Fangraphs has written anything him; Baseball Prospectus is equally silent. The only articles/mentions/smoke signals/morse code orders/messages from a bottle I can find about him come from an MLB. com article from last year and the three sentences that make up his Perfect Game scouting report. How is a player so good at stealing? I want to know!

One big question remains: why more steals? The stolen base and its adjacent scrappy playstyle have taken a back seat to power since the Kansas City Royals lost their credibility following their World Series victory. Guess who the league leader in steals is; do you know? It’s Julio Rodriguez, but only Mariners fans and other niche hipster baseball dorks aggressively celebrate it. Once teams realized that hitting the ball over the fence ensures a run on the board, speed fell quickly out of favor as MLB’s metagame moved towards homers.

But the steal may return soon. Proposed rule changes like bigger bases, a limit on pickoffs, and the seemingly inevitable pitch clock all at least implicitly support a rejuvenated stolen-base metagame. One of my followers pointed out that the pitch clock can work as a countdown for the baserunner as well; they can take off at the precise moment the pitcher must throw the ball.

Anyways, it’s unclear whether this is an affiliate-at-large movement. The Cedar Rapids Kernels are 9th in their 12-team division, while the St. Paul Saints are 14th out of 20 teams. This swiped bags movement could be a serendipitous meeting of a few steal-happy players collaborating to annoy catchers in an otherwise neutral team philosophy; little stands out in the stats to say otherwise. Still, the franchise has a handful of successful stealers moving through their system, and their playstyle could add a dynamic wrinkle to a homogenous power-focused offense.

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[bean5302]

I'm not sure as the front office is truly going to start advocating attempts to steal more often, but it's excellent practice to get players tuned in to reading pitchers habits and base running skills in general. Being in the right position and getting the right jump can make all the difference when scoring from 1st base on a double or scoring from 2nd base on a single.

[FlyingFinn]

When MLB moves to bigger bases, steals will increase dramatically. Most caught stealing attempts are only out by a fraction. Good for the Twins to be ready for this change.

Wallner? - seriously, 8 steals? Who knew?

[Doctor Gast]

Wow I'm impressed, I hope the coaches had something to do with it. Maybe will have to send a few players down to practise.

[DocBauer]

I've stated a few times over the past couple of years, here and there, that these things are cyclical in sports, baseball more so, IMO. I don't think the way of the HR is going to go away. It's still the biggest game changer. But you can't always count on the long ball. An ideal offense would still have a guy or two like Arraez who can flat out hit and get OB to a high degree. Said ideal offense would have a couple of guys who can steal bases on a successful percentage to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher, setting the table for mistakes and good hitters knocking in runs with singles.

There are a lot of ways to score runs and win, and an ideal offense would incorporate a variety of ways to do so. I think the bygone days of the 80's Cardinals and other teams who lived on speed are just that, gone. But changes in defensive alignments, pitch clocks, robot umps, all of these things are going to have at least some affect on future offensive approaches. I'm not sure how deliberate the Twins are in this area, but they are certainly looking at players who have athleticism/speed and the SB ability.

I wouldn't be shocked, with some more development to be sure, if we didn't see Martin in the OF and Julian as a super utility guy, as part of the regular lineup providing a mix of hitting, OB, pop/power and SB ability.

[mikelink45]

This is really good news to an old slow guy who loves to see the speed and daring that comes with SB and hit and run.  Bunt, slug, hit, walk, move- that is baseball.  We can have and celebrate the HR, but upsetting the opposing team, putting pressure on defense, catcher, and pitcher is wonderful.  I hope this continues, but could Rocco deal with it?

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This is really good news to an old slow guy who loves to see the speed and daring that comes with SB and hit and run.  Bunt, slug, hit, walk, move- that is baseball.  We can have and celebrate the HR, but upsetting the opposing team, putting pressure on defense, catcher, and pitcher is wonderful.  I hope this continues, but could Rocco deal with it?

In Baldelli's first three years, he averaged 17 steals a season.  I think he has a grasp on the concept.

[roger]

Interesting.

I don't know about others, but I recall reading about speed being a major asset of Martin's when he was acquired by the Twins.  May have been here or in the Strib.  But it doesn't seem like a surprise that he is running, alot.  Also liked how Julien runs and expect it will always be part of his game.

Must admit I knew nothing about Perez.  

[Karbo]

Did they already change the size of the bases in AA? The Twins are in big trouble when they do with the catchers and the way they have them set up on 1 knee to try to "steel" the low strike. And if they do reconfigure 2nd base it could turn into a track meet.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

. . . And if they do reconfigure 2nd base it could turn into a track meet.

Can Herb Washington still run?

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Did they already change the size of the bases in AA? The Twins are in big trouble when they do with the catchers and the way they have them set up on 1 knee to try to "steel" the low strike. And if they do reconfigure 2nd base it could turn into a track meet.

I was tested in AAA last year and I think it went into effect at all minor league levels this year.

The size of the bases didn't seem to make a very big difference, and it is a relatively small tweak compared to other rules changes.  I think success rates were up about 1% in AAA for the half of the season when the bases changed.

It could be a bit bigger impact at the major league level where there might be fewer replay reviews for players coming off the bag.  I don't think we should expect a drastic change next year though.

[2wins87]

A 50 run grade on Martin seems a bit low.  I don't think he's super fast but he seems above average.  MLB has him at 55.

I think the bigger thing with him is getting good jumps.  He has some of that fast-twitch acceleration which is just as big as straight line speed when it comes to stealing bases.

[PDX Twin]

Have they increased sacrifice bunts as well? I wish that the Twins would develop that skill better as players come through the system.

[RpR]

After Jeffers near perfect bunt yesterday, some know how to do it; that at-bat will forever be a bright spot in my baseball memeories.

[chpettit19]

One thing to keep an eye on is the 2nd half of the season numbers when the minors move 2nd base closer to the plate. I want to say it's going to be significantly closer to 1st and 3rd at that point and we could really see a spike. I don't have time to look up the exact movement amount, but I want to say it was close to a foot. But I could be totally wrong. But will be an interesting thing to track. Bigger bases and closer to 1st could be a cause for a big spike in stolen base attempts.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

Did they already change the size of the bases in AA? The Twins are in big trouble when they do with the catchers and the way they have them set up on 1 knee to try to "steel" the low strike. And if they do reconfigure 2nd base it could turn into a track meet.

Remember, the slightly larger bag might give the runner an instant for time to slide in, but it works both ways. The defensive player and his glove for the tag is also that extra inch or so closer to the base runner. 

Still comes down to the pitcher holding guys on and a decent throw by the catcher. I think more attempts at SB is a reaction to the other forthcoming changes in the rules as well as the natural evolution of recognizing just ONE way of building and offense isn't going to be sustainable. 

[jimbo92107]

I am not so concerned with steals as I am with missed opportunities to advance after the catcher drops a ball in the dirt and it dribbles ten feet away. Any average speed player should be ready to break for the next bag after every pitch. 

Instead, I see guys just standing there, not even trying to take advantage, unless the ball goes all the way to the backstop. 

All I ask is that every player, even the catchers, do their three hops, landing the third hop just as the ball gets to the catcher. If the ball dribbles away, take off! Yes, guys like Buxton can steal on a clean catch, but a ball dribbling away gives you about two seconds to churn those feet. If you have any kind of respectable athletic speed, you should make it to the next base. That means everybody on the current Twins roster. 

No, I'm not saying a 270 pound, 40 year old DH should do this, or your player with a bad knee. Three skips is just what every kid in little league does, and it should work even better in the bigs.