Twins 1, Guardians 0: Devin Smeltzer Throws 6 Shutout Innings and the Bullpen Holds on

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Two straight days of the Buxton BS Show against our biggest divisional competition... at home.  Already appears to have been injured at least 3 times on a limited playing schedule.  It already appears that even 100 games is going to be far too much to ask.  And maybe in those <100 games he hits 30 HRs and all that, but what about the playoffs if the Twins make it?  Is he going to miss 2 games each series?  And clearly an off day means an OFF DAY and no chance at pinch hitting or running to help out in tight situations.  

This is already looking like it's just not going to work and even the highly incentivized contract is still going to be a huge over payment and blow up in the Twins face.   

Quote

Byron Buxton is out of the Twins' starting lineup on Thursday due to knee discomfort.

Buxton also sat out Wednesday and will miss consecutive games for the first time since early May. "If Buck could swing and run, he would have played yesterday, and he would play today," manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters Thursday morning. "But those are things that at the moment he's not able to do." It sounds like a day-to-day type of situation. For now, he is expected to avoid the injured list.

It's not an "off day", his knee injury has flared up (he had ice on it yesterday so I assume it was swelling up) and it's not a "planned day off" thing, he's actually unable to play. Hence why Rocco told us that the plan was for him to play both games, but he couldn't.

[DocBauer]

Actually glad I was working today and couldn't watch the game. I don't think my nerves could have taken it after the last two games, LOL.

Kudos to Gordon! Every once in a while that bat speed of his will send a ball to the gaps or over the wall. But my goodness, he really tattooed that ball! There's a reason he's on this team, he's very useful as the last man.

I liked Smeltzer his rookie year and thought he had a chance. After a pair of poor/injured seasons he looks to be back, and maybe I wrong, but is his velocity up a tick or two? I'm not quite sure how he's doing the job he is with such low K numbers, but he's getting the job done for sure. Except for the AZ game he's throwing 6 IP+ and keeping the opposition at bay.

With what's on hand, what's coming back next year due to current injury, what's developing/coming up in Winder, Balazovic, Varland, SWR, etc, plus potential trades and FA, I can't predict his future. But are we still at too SSS, OR, do we tip our cap at this point and just say: "yep, solid ML starting pitcher"?

[PDX Twin]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Just another misleading statistic like WPA, OAA, UZR, WAR, OPS+ (slanted heavily toward power hitters and against Arraez), launch speed (Arraez’s probably low but hitting ~.350). Correa and Arraez are the only 2 holding the offense together. I think this recent phenomenon of these very questionable SABR type statistics is quite unfortunate. All of the defensive statistics are meaningless and almost always misleading if you compare to Scouts, managers, broadcasters - people that deeply understand baseball - takes.

Here's the corresponding table for Arraez:

He has added 1.57 estimated wins for the Twins.

What the statistic says is that Correa's hits this season have not come at times that significantly increased the chances of a Twins' win, but Arraez's have.

I generally agree with you on a lot of the sabrmetric stuff, but I long thought that a measure like WPA would be an appropriate one for looking at clutch hitting even before anyone published it.

[jmlease1]

Baseball is a funny game. 3 games, total run differential: 1. Twins went 1-2, could easily have gone 2-1, 3-0, or 0-3. It'll make you crazy if you let it!

Anyone have Nick Gordon with the game-winning hr and only run today? After last night's explosion? Anyone? (I did not. No way.) Good job, it's appreciated, Nick. 

Nice work by Smeltzer. Bullpen got back on track and did the job after two rough days. I am surprised that we didn't see Thornburg or Duffey; if you don't trust either of them in a high(er) leverage situation, then I'm not sure what they're doing on the staff. You can have 1 guy in the pen that gets the blowout innings, but I don't think you can afford two guys who might only pitch every 5th day. And if one of them if going to be jettisoned when Ober comes off the IL, then why not use him while you have him?

A good win. it'll be interesting to see if Cleveland can stay this hot; their pitching is pretty good again, but I think their offense is going to put up more games like today's than wed night's.

[mikelink45]

Wow is Smeltzer impressing all of us.  What a great streak he is on and he is saving the SP, RP and the team.  Nice.

I do agree that if we have players we are not able or want to use it is time to adjust the roster. 

[wabene]

Nice we squeaked out one, could've been worse or better. Very dramatic series! 

Miranda made a couple of solid defensive plays late to help us seal it. Kid could be good. 

[railmarshalljon]

I've been on vacation, so a big thanks to Matt for the write up. I always love the detail that is given and the work that goes into it. Couple of stray thoughts...

1. Love to see Smeltzer continue to befuddle hitters. Not sure if it's sustainable, but keep it up. We're all rootin for ya kid.

2. Not sure what's going on with Buxton. Hope i'ts nothing, but I'm always apprehensive with him.

3. Not gonnna shout (this is a lie) JOE SMITH THRIVES COMING INTO MESSES. STOP GIVING HIM CLEAN INNINGS THAT MAN LIVES TO INDUCE GROUNDERS IN TOUGH SITUATIONS. PUT HIM IN ONCE SOMEONE GETS OUT OF A JAM. Ok I'm calm. But his usage of late has seemed bad. Weak contact is a skilll, and it's suited for jams. Ok I'm calm.

4. Love Nicky G and the versatility he brings. Can't be stated enough how valuable a guy is that can play the IF and CF to spell guys. 

5. Go Twins

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

Honestly, lucky win today.  Once again, this team tried everything in their power to lose, but Cleveland wants to save the sweep for next week.

So the two one-run losses were due to nothing but their own ineptitude and lack of heart, but the win was luck.  Fun.

[miller761]

Stop a losing streak or give the bullpen a much needed breather. Devin Smeltzer is your man. Where would we be without him. If he continues to pitch like this he better not end up back in AAA when all the SP is healthy. Come on Rocco you should have given him a chance to go 7...he had an easy 6th inning. 

This management handles SP like they are expensive china and give everyday players too many days off. For what to prevent injury - look at our injury report. Try something different management...you may find there is more than 1 way.

[jimbo92107]

I didn't predict it, but it's satisfying to see that Devin Smeltzer has become the team's most reliable starter. Ryan and Gray may have more impressive "stuff," but Smeltzer has command and a plan every time he toes the rubber. 

Once again, hitters were unwilling to offer at his first pitch slow curve. So, he kept doing it. Cleveland's lineup clearly was getting more and more frustrated by this soft-tossing lefty moving the ball all around the zone. The only thing they could do is hope the umpire missed more strike calls. That blown strike on the outside change-up cost Smeltzer a strikeout, a hit, and about 15 extra pitches. Bring on RoboUmp!

Good dinger by Gordon. I like having him on the team, and I'm pretty sure Baldy does, too. 

[launchingthrees]

Feels a lot better than a sweep. Win 2 from the Rockies and go from there. The bullpen could use another long start though. A short start could be disastrous. 

[bighat]

12 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

This doesn’t excuse the offense which continues to be terrible. Can’t manufacture runs, can’t even move guys over. Lead off double, strikeout, fly out, strikeout. 

Yep, for all the pitching woes and the amount of time devoted to the discussion, I think the offense (or lackthereof) is what's going to sink the season for the Twins. Clutch hitting doesn't exist, and they seem to have a terrible time with RISP with less than 2 outs.

[Whitey333]

Glad twins won.  Not a great game but ok.  Bottom line is Twins lost two out of three to Cleveland at home mostly related to our bullpen.  Again the offense was missing.  One day they score a ton then the next day they almost get shutout again.  If they aren't going to use Duffey and Thornburg even when they are well rested they need to be gone.  They are dead weight.  Tell Baldelli, then to quit complaining about not having enough bullpen arms if he isn't going to use what is available.  It's hard not to be discouraged after losing 2 of 3 to Cleveland.  You don't get rewarded for being close.  This is MLB.  Bottom line your goal is to win.  The Twins have a losing record the past month and have not played all that well.  And who isn't sick of all the Buxton bs?  Yes he was hurt.  That's the bs I'm talking about.  It's been going on for 7 years.  He's injured way too often and not dependable at all.  If he's hurt he needs to go on the IL.  He is just becoming dead weight when he can't play.  Put him on IL and get someone up who can actually help out and thus give our " great" manager another bench option.  It's also frustrating to hear Rocco complain about the 13 pitcher limit rule.  As I recall it is a major league rule for all teams not just the Twins.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Yep, for all the pitching woes and the amount of time devoted to the discussion, I think the offense (or lackthereof) is what's going to sink the season for the Twins. Clutch hitting doesn't exist, and they seem to have a terrible time with RISP with less than 2 outs.

well, they just scored 16 runs in three games, an average of 5.33 runs per game. Over the course of a 162 game season, that's 864 runs, which would have led all of baseball in 2021. They're an above average offensive team this year after a pretty slow start from their offense this year (like many). The offense is starting to get healthy, so I don't think it's really the biggest concern.

[roger]

Wasn't that long ago when the Twins had three solid starting prospects, Smeltzer, Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe.  Always thought Thorpe was the most talented with the most upside.  Dobnak was such a good story, as was Smeltzer.  Dobber got off to that really good first couple months, while Thorpe seemed to find ways to disappoint.  Meanwhile, Smeltzer just seemed to do well when he had an opportunity, yet, always seemed to be the odd man out.

Here we are a couple years later and Smeltzer is standing out as the man.  Couldn't be happier for him and hope like heck he can keep it up for the rest of the year, and beyond.  

Don't know what the future holds for Dobber,,,,,,,,just happy that he will be getting a nice check for what was it, five years.  Expect he and his wife will be set for life, happy for them.  As for Thorpe, don't have a clue where he is.  Does anyone know?

[TwinsAce]

Poor Franmil Reyes.  He gets the 7th inning going by hitting the double to left to put Oscar at 3rd.  But then Clement gets the easy out at home for Gonzalez.  And then with one out, Franmil "runs" home while Gio bobbles the potential double play ball.  But Gio recovered in time to throw home and get Franmil out via the force out.  IDK if Franmil thought that the inning was over regardless due to a double play, but it sure looked like he slowed down at the end before getting to home.

Then, bottom of the 7th inning, Gio hits a ball to Franmil that he should have caught but missed it...and then proceeds to boot it around and let Gio hustle for a double.

And finally, he had to face Duran in the 9th.  Talk about a rough day. ?

As a fan at the game, it was rough seeing Duran come out in the 9th.  I'd imagine if Rosario hadn't been "hit" by Duran, Duran might have been given the full 9th inning.  But as painful as it was, it was still a glorious win with lots of great pitching.

[USNMCPO]

If Rocco isn't going to play Duffy or Thornburg why are they on the roster? 

[cHawk]

22 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Twins overcame their manager who did his best to overmanage the team into a loss.

Everyone is in agreement that the bullpen is terrible, yet plenty still would rather see a reliever(s) come in than stick with a guy who is cruising for one more inning. Smeltzer, 90 pitches, 3 hits and no walks in 6 innings. Yanked for Joe smith who has been average to bad for well over a month, and doubly so when he starts a clean inning.

Then the 9th. Honestly if thielbar blew that, considering the situation (two blown leads late against the divisional opponent nearest to you in the standings), that’s a move that eventually gets people fired if you do it enough times. There didn’t seem to be a really good reason for it at all. 

This doesn’t excuse the offense which continues to be terrible. Can’t manufacture runs, can’t even move guys over. Lead off double, strikeout, fly out, strikeout. 

They scored 5 runs on Tuesday and 10 on Thursday…”continuing to be terrible” is inaccurate.

[Major League Ready]

39 minutes ago, USNMCPO said:

If Rocco isn't going to play Duffy or Thornburg why are they on the roster? 

Are you disappointed those two are not getting used much?  It's OK by me.  I sure would love to see Alcala back!

[Riverbrian]