Ranking the Twins' Top 5 Most Irreplaceable Players

[Cody Christie]

Every big-league roster has players that provide irreplaceable value, but some players are even more critical to their team. Here are the top-five most irreplaceable players on the 2022 Twins.

 

 

Earlier this week, FanGraphs posted about the American League's most irreplaceable players for the remainder of the 2022 season. For author and ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski, this isn't a list of the top players in the league. His premise is to eliminate teams out of contention and remove players on teams with significant division leads. He "ran the updated ZiPS projected standings after Tuesday's games and then re-ran the entire simulation with the assumption that each relevant player missed the rest of the season due to injury."

Multiple AL Central players appear on Szymborski's rankings, including Byron Buxton in the eighth overall spot. For Twins fans, an argument can be made for each of the names below as the team's most irreplaceable player. 

5. Joe Ryan, SP
Starting pitching is so important for the Twins that it seems like nearly every starter is irreplaceable at this point. However, starters will be limited in the amount of value they can provide, with less than 60% of the schedule remaining. Joe Ryan dominated early in the season to put himself in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation. A trip to the COVID IL was the only thing able to slow him down. Minnesota has already survived part of the schedule without Ryan, which is another reason why he ranks fifth. 

4. Sonny Gray, SP
Sonny Gray has been the ace-level pitcher Twins fans have pined for in recent years, but he has yet to make ten starts due to a pectoral strain. Gray was the clear selection as the TD Pitcher of the Month for May, but the team needs him healthy for the season's second half. He was an All-Star the last time he pitched over 175 innings in a season. Like Ryan, his value for the season's remaining games is limited because he will appear in fewer games than the position players named below. 

3. Luis Arraez, UTL
An argument can be made that Luis Arraez has been the team's MVP so far in 2022. He leads baseball in batting average and on-base percentage. Baseball-Reference ranks Arraez as having accumulated the team's highest WAR total, which puts him a full win ahead of Carlos Correa. Last season, Arraez played in a career-high 121 games, and Minnesota needs him to surpass that mark in 2022. The Twins have infield depth, so even if Arraez is injured, his replacement(s) would recover some of his value. 

2. Carlos Correa, SS
Carlos Correa's slow start might have been tough for some fans to watch, but his track record pointed to him being able to turn it around. Since May 1, Correa is hitting .321/.382/.509 (.891) with 13 extra-base hits in 27 games. According to Szymborski, "Correa ranks a bit lower than Buxton, even with as good a projection, mainly because Minnesota has reasonable depth in the infield." It's been well documented that Correa can opt out of his contract, so he has every incentive to continue playing well. 

1. Byron Buxton, CF
Even with the team managing his playing time, Buxton's living up to his contract extension from this winter. He's on pace to set career highs in nearly every offensive category, and FanGraphs already puts his season value north of $18 million. On FanGraphs' list, Buxton doesn't rank as high as other players because ZiPS already projects him to miss time due to injury. Szymborski wrote, "Assuming that Buxton would have perfect health, he would jump into the [AL's] top five." The Twins are at their best with Buxton in the line-up, making him the team's most irreplaceable player. 

How would you rank the team's most irreplaceable players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

Very hard to argue with these five.

But to add to the discussion, here are other players who might make this list:

Duran - in this BP, what would we do without him?  Is there another legitimate arm in the pen?

Jeffers - despite our anguish over his bat, which is coming around, he is our catcher.  Sanchez is not as good behind the plate and can leave as a FA and we have no one in the minors who is a potential starter right now. 

[TwinsAce]

If just looking at the current season, with Lewis out, I'd have Correa at number one.  Celestino/Gordon can probably hold their own out in CF compared to Palacios at SS.  And we already see this with Buxton managing his knee. (Although Palacios' defense would be comparable to Correa.)

Although I wonder if Duran should really be listed here, potentially as high as 2 or 3.  As the last few games have shown, the rest of our bullpen swings from decent outings to ....not so decent outings.  Based on the rotating list of bullpen guys, we have arguably no option in our organization to replace Duran in the near future.

[Whitey333]

Kind of a waste of time article.  Those players are obviously their most important players.  I don't think an article with newly invented analytics was needed to convince people who the most important players on the team are

[MABB1959]

Sounds good.  Just need to acquire at least one more very good starter no matter what the cost. As well as keeping Correa no matter the cost.  I don't even know how to attempt to get a better bullpen.

[tony&rodney]

Gray and Ryan have been decent but Smeltzer might have better numbers if he had as many opportunities and Archer takes the ball every time out too. Duran and Jax have both had decent years in the pen. Don't forget about Polanco or Kepler either.  If we are picking teams only Duran, among pitchers, makes my top six.

[RpR]

I would put Kepler in instead of Arraez; his fielding is very important.

If right field become the chinese-fire-drill left and center were last night, the Twins will be fortunate to win even one-half of their games.

[Jack Griffin]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Kind of a waste of time article.  Those players are obviously their most important players.  I don't think an article with newly invented analytics was needed to convince people who the most important players on the team are

ZIPs gets mentioned like 3 times the entire article? What is it about stats that bothers people so much?

[The Mad King]

I dunno, as great a talent as Buxton is, they actually DO replace him about a third of the time while staying in contention.

[KGB]

It's not ideal when your most irreplaceable player is also your least dependable player.