Should the Twins trade for Montas?

[Battle ur tail off]

And you might be right. I just think if you have a team that is playing well, you don't look a gift horse in the mouth. There is a chance the Twins go the next 2 seasons and don't make the playoffs. Then what?

Back to dumping anyone that is any good and another rebuild. Strike when the iron is hot is always my mantra. Pitchers are especially flaky. Also, if Buxton is still healthy at the deadline with Correa(who won't be here next year), and Arraez hitting hotter than anyone in baseball, I think you have to take that chance. 

 

Think next year of Buxton at 70 games, zero from Correa and Araaez OPSing .725. It could happen very easily. 

[bighat]

45 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Do you think the Twins will magically have a better lineup and/or rotation in a year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.?

 

What "future" are you talking about? Are we supposed to just hold onto all these young hitters in case someone gets hurt? It's not fair to them to not be on a major league roster. We have a glut of them, move them for where we aren't strong. It only makes sense. Whether this "move" is for this year or into the future at some point, you have to make room or move guys that are major league ready. 

 

 

I don't mind them trading hitters, just don't want them to trade AA or AAA pitching.

I'd be thrilled to see the Twins flip Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda or all 3 of them if they could.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

And you might be right. I just think if you have a team that is playing well, you don't look a gift horse in the mouth. There is a chance the Twins go the next 2 seasons and don't make the playoffs. Then what?

Back to dumping anyone that is any good and another rebuild. Strike when the iron is hot is always my mantra. Pitchers are especially flaky. Also, if Buxton is still healthy at the deadline with Correa(who won't be here next year), and Arraez hitting hotter than anyone in baseball, I think you have to take that chance. 

 

Think next year of Buxton at 70 games, zero from Correa and Araaez OPSing .725. It could happen very easily. 

I think Correa will be here next year, and if not him, than another top SS. The Twins will have 50-60M to spend free agency and hardly any other holes. There's four good free agent shortstops and the rest are bench bats. The Twins aren't going to follow up this season and slap the players and fans in the face by cutting payroll without filling the one glaring hole.

[Stew]

We have a deliema. We do need  a third great pitcher. I don't think maeda will be ready to really help this year. But with him grey, Ryan and ober we should be strong. So can we find a temporary pitcher to help. If we get montas, will we get him without giving everything away.  Cincinnati has two pitchers available. Maybe because we dealt with them already, it would be easier?

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think Correa will be here next year, and if not him, than another top SS. The Twins will have 50-60M to spend free agency and hardly any other holes. There's four good free agent shortstops and the rest are bench bats. The Twins aren't going to follow up this season and slap the players and fans in the face by cutting payroll without filling the one glaring hole.

Good point.  If Correa opts out and the Sano option is declined, they will be under $75M   I am already dreaming of Willson Contreras and Musgrove or Rodon or Taillon and a great BP arm.  Contreras would be my 1st choice because I am being an optimist that Lewis will fill the hole at SS by the mid-point of the season next year.  Obviously, that's far from a sure thing but I don't see any catchers in the system that are anywhere near that level of prospect.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Good point.  If Correa opts out and the Sano option is declined, they will be under $75M   I am already dreaming of Willson Contreras and Musgrove or Rodon or Taillon and a great BP arm.

Doubtful they pick up Bundy's 11M option either. And with Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino, Kepler still has the trade bullseye on his back. No slight on him, just a matter of too many mouths to feed.

And since we've ample evidence that they don't like big deals for pitchers but they do like big deals for position players, spending the money on a big time position player seems more likely. You're right about Contreras though, he seems to be the only logical option if it's not a shortstop. Personally, I don't like giving big money to catchers, but surely they'll talk about him.

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Doubtful they pick up Bundy's 11M option either. And with Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino, Kepler still has the trade bullseye on his back. No slight on him, just a matter of too many mouths to feed.

And since we've ample evidence that they don't like big deals for pitchers but they do like big deals for position players, spending the money on a big time position player seems more likely. You're right about Contreras though, he seems to be the only logical option if it's not a shortstop. Personally, I don't like giving big money to catchers, but surely they'll talk about him.

 

I was assuming they decline Bundy's option in the $75M or he gets traded at the deadline.

No doubt there is ample evidence that they don't like big deals for pitchers.  However, I don't see this in the absolute terms often voiced here because I don't know the rationale behind their practices.  Is it the failure rate?  Is it investing that high of a percentage in one player.  If there avoidance is based on one of these factors, the team has never been even remotely positioned the way they will be next year in terms of young inexpensive talent which mitigates those reasons.   In other words, they MIGHT be more inclined to use the available funds on one or two big ticket players because they have all the other positions covered for several years.  Obviously, I am speculating but we should at least consider the possibility they will consider doing some things they would not have prior to having all this affordable talent and more on the way.  I have always been very leery or 5+ year deals for SPs but I would definitely sign one of the top guys next year assuming things continue to progress with our young talent provided the cost is not absurd.  Perhaps the FO sees it the same way.

Good point that Kepler could also be used to clear more dollars to invest elsewhere.  That might be part of the plan to add a SS next year but I think that only happens if they get a deal they really like.  Although they might see plenty of OF coverage by using Kirolloff / Garlick / Celestino / Gordon as an OF platoon with Kirolloff also getting a lot of time at 1B.  That might put max on the block.

[Squirrel]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The twins offensive is not consistent because the have too many young guys and not so great guys playing at once. To expect Jeffers, Miranda, Laranch, Celestion, Gordon, Garlick, AK, Lewis, Palacios to be consistent is crazy talk, they aren't ready for that.

Add in injuries and you get the 2022 Twins offense.

Buxton, Correa, Plolanco and Urshela should be fairly consistent but injuries have hit them as well.

That's why I said offense consistency is a problem, but for right now we are talking about adding a starting pitcher ... yeah, it all relates into one another, but anyway ... I'm not for adding any starters that I don't think that is the problem

[Whitey333]

Great comments guys.  Here's my two cents worth.  Yes the bullpen needs help.  It needed help from the beginning and especially after we deemed it necessary to trade Rogers.  How did that work out?  But the starters have to go longer and be more productive.  I know it may come as a shock but a starting pitcher going 4 innings and throwing only 65 pitches while giving up 2 or 3 runs, is not good starting pitching.  As we can see the bullpen l, while below average to begin with , is now getting worn down.  As I've said the bullpen pitching half of every game is not sustainable.  

[C_frommn]

I think the Twins should look at any Starters and Relievers to keep the Show going in the right direction. Now as for Montas the twins have been in every story written about him so if he is available then go get him. But the need Relief help as well.

[dex8425]

The answer is no, unless the Twins can't get bullpen help or the A's price comes down. I don't see the price coming down, and I think the Twins will get bullpen help, so no, I wouldn't be planning on trading for Montas. 

[Sparky55]

Martin and Miranda should get it done. We have plenty of middle infielders. I think Spencer Steer is going to be better than either one of those two. IMO

[Squirrel]

18 hours ago, dex8425 said:

The answer is no, unless the Twins can't get bullpen help or the A's price comes down. I don't see the price coming down, and I think the Twins will get bullpen help, so no, I wouldn't be planning on trading for Montas. 

I agree, but without PB help I don’t think another starter makes a difference. The only way I trade for Montas is very conditional on two thing … the A’s price comes down AND we get some quality BP help. I don’t think it makes sense to trade for Montas if we don’t also shore up the BP. I mean, even Montas isn’t going to make a difference unless he’s throwing CGs every time he pitches

[dex8425]

46 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I agree, but without PB help I don’t think another starter makes a difference. The only way I trade for Montas is very conditional on two thing … the A’s price comes down AND we get some quality BP help. I don’t think it makes sense to trade for Montas if we don’t also shore up the BP. I mean, even Montas isn’t going to make a difference unless he’s throwing CGs every time he pitches

I think we agree but your sights are set higher than mine I guess. An improved pen PLUS Montas of course makes it more feasible to actually be competitive in a playoff series, or even win one.  I just want to win the division and maybe one playoff game! I think an improved pen gets us a central win. Some combination of Ryan, Gray, Ober, Archer, Winder, Smeltzer, Bundy are good enough for five effective starters especially if Ryan and Gray start the playoff series. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'd love to have Montas, Montas has been incredible. FO should have been quicker & more serious in negociations for Montas instead of trying to steal Montas away from OAK. Now the odds are much greater against obtaining Montas w/o paying a very hefty price. 

Now I think we need to shift gears, IDK if Marquez is available but right now his production is down (his trade value is down) and CO is out of it. IMO if we offer CO a reasonable price, they might bite. Marquez has been a very good pitcher with a very good GB %, making him a good fit.

[Rosterman]

I like the Twins roster right now, sans a closer. They still have Ober coming back. And WInder could be a major piece.

They need better productiuon at catcher, but still - someone ahs to contribute to 27 outs in a game.

They need a real closer, and I would like to see Moran as another lefty in the pen, depending on the return of Coulombe.

On the plus side of trading, the Twins may have too many prospects and not enoiugh future roster room. Who can they lose out of Henriquez, Balazovic, Varland, Canterino, Sands, Enlow and more? 

In the majors, can you move on, today, from Kepler, Urshela, Polanco...all with decent contracts and longer-term replacements already in the majors.

What other players don't have a path to the majors, but could help a strugging tem like the A's for the future - Steer. Martin, Wallner. Even lower...can we depend that Lewis is the shortstop for the next 7 years and get rid of all the "prospects in the mid-levels above Miller? 

And if you add an arm to the rotation, who goes? Will have a logjam when Ober returns. Do the Twins release Bundy?

[ashbury]

Baseball-reference.com has a daily email summary of the goings-on around the majors.  Guess who were listed as the two top pitching performances yesterday?  Montas and Smeltzer!

[LVTwinsfan]

On 6/19/2022 at 6:42 PM, bighat said:

No, because starting pitching only solves half the problem.

In case you haven't been watching, this team can't hit. They scored 11 runs on Saturday, aside from that they averaged just 2 runs per game the rest of the week. They've been shut out 9 times in just over 60 games - they put a goose egg on the board once per week.

There are a handful of good teams this year, and a lot of bad ones. The Twins are one of the few teams who are truly mediocre this season, it's just hard to see that because they keep playing against terrible competition. But we've seen when they go against the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees - they get blown out of the water.

Leveraging the future of the franchise so you can pretend to compete in 2022 is not a wise decision. Play it out and see how it goes with what you've got.

The real other half of the problem is the bullpen. Since Twins starters regularly leave the game after the 5th or sooner, the bullpen normally pitches nearly half of the game or more on almost a regular basis. Offense is not as bad as you make it sound, had plenty of offense to win the first two games vs Cleveland but the bullpen blew it in both games. They actually had two blown saves in Wednesdays game. The offense fell flat on Thursday and won with just enough. You could argue Cleveland should have been swept.

[Squirrel]

17 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

You could argue Cleveland should have been swept.

I think you could argue equally, we should have won two.

That said, Montas ... I'm sounding like a broken record with this, but I don't think starting pitching is one-half the problem, at all. I don't think starting pitching is even the concern. Sure, get better in that area if you can, not saying not (unless they A's still want an overpay, then definitely not) ... but I think the priority is the BP. With a better constructed BP, we don't lose the game on Wednesday, imo. That's not to say that every BP implosion results in a win vs a loss, sometimes there is just an off day, but there certainly would have been more converted wins if only. 

And the other half of the problem is the inconsistent offense, but that's a different thread, and I don't have a solution, right now, for that anyway.

Bottom line, if we trade for Montas and we don't also get a couple of quality BP arms, there is no reason to trade for Montas at all. imo. It would be great to get both Montas and 2 quality BP arms ... but if we only go after one, we should go after the BP arms. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Sparky55 said:

Martin and Miranda should get it done. We have plenty of middle infielders. I think Spencer Steer is going to be better than either one of those two. IMO

That is my favorite thing about prospects they will all be better than the prospects that have already made the majors.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

And if you add an arm to the rotation, who goes? Will have a logjam when Ober returns. Do the Twins release Bundy?

IMO if the Twins are getting a top guy like Montas for example, Ober or Winder are going to be part of the trade, with another pitching prospect and probably a highly rated fielder.

 

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Who can they lose out of Henriquez, Balazovic, Varland, Canterino, Sands, Enlow and more? 

Which is why I say forget starters and get relief pitchers with some of the mid tier prospects. I am pretty sure they could trade all the above guys and it wouldn't truly drain the pipeline, not saying they should do that.

[LVTwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I think you could argue equally, we should have won two.

That said, Montas ... I'm sounding like a broken record with this, but I don't think starting pitching is one-half the problem, at all. I don't think starting pitching is even the concern. Sure, get better in that area if you can, not saying not (unless they A's still want an overpay, then definitely not) ... but I think the priority is the BP. With a better constructed BP, we don't lose the game on Wednesday, imo. That's not to say that every BP implosion results in a win vs a loss, sometimes there is just an off day, but there certainly would have been more converted wins if only. 

And the other half of the problem is the inconsistent offense, but that's a different thread, and I don't have a solution, right now, for that anyway.

Bottom line, if we trade for Montas and we don't also get a couple of quality BP arms, there is no reason to trade for Montas at all. imo. It would be great to get both Montas and 2 quality BP arms ... but if we only go after one, we should go after the BP arms. 

I wouldn’t mind a proven starter, but without improving the bullpen first , it would be meaningless.

[LVTwinsfan]

I would break it down like this in order of importance:

55% Bullpen…. Just over half so it’s top priority

 25% offense…. Do these guys take batting practice anymore? Do they practice any small ball skills? Do they have a hitting coach? They should hit and run once in a while, they can’t steal anyways, try something else.

20% starting pitching…… If they could improve the bullpen and the offense, then they would already be winning more games.  Then would be a good time to get a starter.

[Squirrel]

33 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

I wouldn’t mind a proven starter, but without improving the bullpen first , it would be meaningless.

That's pretty much what I'm saying ... so ... concur  

[Craig Arko]

Maybe not.

https://www.mlb.com/news/frankie-montas-departs-start-early-vs-mariners
 

Actually, I’d start talking with the Orioles. 

[ashbury]

38 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Maybe not.

https://www.mlb.com/news/frankie-montas-departs-start-early-vs-mariners

That sound you just heard and continue to hear is Billy Beane uttering an unending stream of swears....

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That sound you just heard and continue to hear is Billy Beane uttering an unending stream of swears....

Overplayed his hand and no one bought at the start if the season  when he likely could have gotten a deal done

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have had some good luck with their starters. They need a couple of good arms for the bullpen. I was a big fan of adding Montas at a reasonable cost but relief pitching is where the need is right now.

[Blyleven2011]

On 6/20/2022 at 12:07 PM, Battle ur tail off said:

Do you think the Twins will magically have a better lineup and/or rotation in a year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.?

 

What "future" are you talking about? Are we supposed to just hold onto all these young hitters in case someone gets hurt? It's not fair to them to not be on a major league roster. We have a glut of them, move them for where we aren't strong. It only makes sense. Whether this "move" is for this year or into the future at some point, you have to make room or move guys that are major league ready. 

 

 

Yes we need pitching and will need more pitching in the future  ,,, winder , jax , ober,  Ryan  , gray and Duran  with acala and maeda  injured on major league staff are a good start ,,, 

With our top pitching prospects in the minors always ending up on injured list  I just can't get enthused with what remains for pitching at AAA  and AA , even though AA might have a pitcher still in the fold ....  so we need pitching now and again in the future  ,,, SO TRADE SOME OF OUR FUTURE DEPTH FOR OUR FUTURE TODAY , TOMORROW AND THE NEXT ... 

proven verses prospects  ,,,,

Proven veteran Sonny gray for unproven ace prospect petty  .....

A steep price but I can live with it ...hopefully they can find a pitcher in this year's draft that can replace petty the only pitcher in our system that had the ace labeled to him ..

.

[dxpavelka]

On 6/19/2022 at 6:22 PM, FlyingFinn said:

No. The cost is too high. Currently, the Twins can make the playoffs but they will be lucky to make it past the first round. Getting Montas would mean they should make it past the first round but probably not the 2nd. Now, he is under team control in 2023 so that is a big plus when I think the Twins plan to be serious contenders to win it all. I still think the bidding will be too high and the Twins will not end up with Montas

Didn't know that we knew what the cost is..