Should the Twins trade for Montas?

[cHawk]

The Twins starting rotation, as a group, has been rather mediocre so far in 2022. Here are some overall rotation stats for you:

ERA: 3.82 (15th)
WHIP: 1.22 (11th)
K%: 20.2 (19th)
BB%: 6.7 (7th)
ERA-: 99 (15th)

With the AL Central being up for grabs, the Twins should look to add at the deadline to increase their chances of winning in the postseason. We all know how long it's been since this team has won in the postseason. Starting pitching will be the need, and Frankie Montas is likely to be highly coveted at the trade deadline.

Frankie Montas has been solid for the A's thus far in 2022:

While these are not earth-shattering numbers by any means, they are solid. Montas possesses a 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.9 WAR, and a 96 ERA-. Those numbers may or may not improve if he moves to a colder place like Minnesota, as I would imagine it's easier to pitch in the colder weather of Minnesota than it is to pitch in California.

Do you think the Twins should go after Montas at the deadline? Yes? No? If yes, what should the Twins offer for him? If no, why?

[Major League Ready]

This might be the most popular topic in the history of TD.  I have been considering a slightly different question which is ...  would adding a pitcher that contributes every 5th day significantly improve the odds of us getting to playoffs and/or contribute to playoff success.  

[FlyingFinn]

No. The cost is too high. Currently, the Twins can make the playoffs but they will be lucky to make it past the first round. Getting Montas would mean they should make it past the first round but probably not the 2nd. Now, he is under team control in 2023 so that is a big plus when I think the Twins plan to be serious contenders to win it all. I still think the bidding will be too high and the Twins will not end up with Montas

[cHawk]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

No. The cost is too high. Currently, the Twins can make the playoffs but they will be lucky to make it past the first round. Getting Montas would mean they should make it past the first round but probably not the 2nd. Now, he is under team control in 2023 so that is a big plus when I think the Twins plan to be serious contenders to win it all. I still think the bidding will be too high and the Twins will not end up with Montas

I do think this season would be a big success if they made it past the first round. The cost for Montas will obviously be high, but I wouldn’t be too quick to count the Twins out. Nobody thought they would sign Correa, right?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Depends on the cost. For the right deal, absolutely.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

This might be the most popular topic in the history of TD.  I have been considering a slightly different question which is ...  would adding a pitcher that contributes every 5th significantly improve the odds of us getting to playoffs and/or contribute to playoff success.  

Nothing will top the Troy Tulowitzki thread in 2015, and Brian Dozier “trade rumor” thread after the 2016 season. 

[bighat]

No, because starting pitching only solves half the problem.

In case you haven't been watching, this team can't hit. They scored 11 runs on Saturday, aside from that they averaged just 2 runs per game the rest of the week. They've been shut out 9 times in just over 60 games - they put a goose egg on the board once per week.

There are a handful of good teams this year, and a lot of bad ones. The Twins are one of the few teams who are truly mediocre this season, it's just hard to see that because they keep playing against terrible competition. But we've seen when they go against the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees - they get blown out of the water.

Leveraging the future of the franchise so you can pretend to compete in 2022 is not a wise decision. Play it out and see how it goes with what you've got.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, cHawk said:

I do think this season would be a big success if they made it past the first round.

I'll take a chance at one better shot at a title in 2023 rather than two good chances at making it to the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023 while unlikely to have the horses to get past that round. Of course, this is saying Montas is the only move (or nonmove) and there aren't any other moving parts. There is the theory - if you make it to the playoffs, anything can happen. That has NOT worked for the Twins since 1987.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, cHawk said:

I do think this season would be a big success if they made it past the first round. The cost for Montas will obviously be high, but I wouldn’t be too quick to count the Twins out. Nobody thought they would sign Correa, right?

IMO, this season would be considered a success if they won even 1 playoff game. Coming into the year the expectation was they might be better than Detroit and KC. So getting to the playoffs and winning a game would be huge. Winning a series would be unbelievable.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'll take a chance at one better shot at a title in 2023 rather than two good chances at making it to the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023 while unlikely to have the horses to get past that round. Of course, this is saying Montas is the only move (or nonmove) and there aren't any other moving parts. There is the theory - if you make it to the playoffs, anything can happen. That has NOT worked for the Twins since 1987.

The future is never guaranteed, look at the Nationals for example, when you have a chance, you need to do things to help now. Doesn't mean trading your future away for a starting pitchers with control only though next year.

We don't need a horses that go 6,7,8 innings in the playoffs, we need shut down relief pitchers to finish the second half of games. Even if the Twins have a work horse like that, they aren't going to use them that way in the playoffs, basically nobody does anymore. Teams will take out a better pitcher and put in an inferior pitcher just so they don't have to face somebody for the 3rd or 4th time.

[tony&rodney]

All of these trade for pitchers posts are pointing to a common perception - the guys currently on the staff are not good enough to pull the Twins through the season. The biggest fear of many is the cost of a trade. It remains impossible to know what players would be traded to return some decent pitchers.  When one looks at the current roster there appears to be some depth and youth. The Twins are not likely to trade from their active roster. The prospects that might interest another team are unknown as well. The Twins can afford to make a trade this year similar to the trade that Toronto made last year to gain Jose Berrios. Whether Falvey has an interest in trading will become known in the next six weeks.

Should the Twins trade for Montas? How about a couple of relief pitchers? Yes, if the cost is not detrimental to the team. It can be done. All speculation doesn't cancel the possibility that there could be some trades. I'm good to go with the current group, but would also welcome potential additions. I think the signing of Correa, who did not require the team to lose more than a draft choice, qualifies as an example of a surprise. There are possibilities.

[cHawk]

34 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Should the Twins trade for Montas? How about a couple of relief pitchers? Yes, if the cost is not detrimental to the team. It can be done. All speculation doesn't cancel the possibility that there could be some trades. I'm good to go with the current group, but would also welcome potential additions. I think the signing of Correa, who did not require the team to lose more than a draft choice, qualifies as an example of a surprise. There are possibilities.

This team does need relief help if they want to win in 2022. I’ll probably write a couple more threads down the road covering various relief pitchers who will likely be on the move (Jorge Lopez, David Robertson, etc)

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Nothing will top the Troy Tulowitzki thread in 2015, and Brian Dozier “trade rumor” thread after the 2016 season. 

The Aaron Hicks retrospective thread will always be my #1. Pure entertainment. 

[TopGunn#22]

It will always depend on cost.  But the Twins do have some organizational depth and if they are trading for assets that will or could be on the team in 2023 and beyond then I answer with an emphatic YES !  The percentage of "prospects" that bear fruit vs. those that do not is telling.  For every Doyle Alexander trade for John Smoltz there are 50 where the better player at the moment helped the team he went to become better.  

The key with any trade, whether for bullpen or starting pitching or both, is that it has to be part of the team for more than just 2022.    

[Trov]

It all depends on the price to get  him.  If the trade is for some no name low level prospect then no doubt, if the price is Buxton(which I know is very unlikely Oakland would want him) Lewis, Miranda, Ryan, and Austin Martin, then no I would not.  Any player that improves the team is worth trading for, if the price is right.  We all know the numbers, and they are better than some in our lineup, but if the asking price is too high then I pass because he does not push us too far, and we have a lot of possible options for next year as well.  

[twinfan]

I'm not a Montas fan and think he is over-rated because of the hype. I hope we don't over-pay for him. I'd like Ober and Ryan to get healthy and maybe add someone like Hendricks from the Cubs who might cost less and still help. There should be other starters who will be made available as we move into July. I'd also move Archer to the pen to help with long relief.

[Squirrel]

Honestly, I don't think the starting pitching is even the problem, at all. Offensive consistency and the BP are the problems. Not sure what to do with the former, but work to get at least 2 high quality bp arms and not another starter, that Oakland will charge an unreasonable price for, and will not be worth it, imo. If they get at least 2 quality, and I mean, shut 'em down quality, arms, I will be very happy with that.

[nicksaviking]

Agree with most others, the bullpen is more important to improve. I'd only want a starter if it's a really good deal and/or it's longer term building block.

Besides, I just never trust an Oakland pitcher. I do like his velocity and strikeouts, but as mentioned in the OP, those are not earth shattering numbers and clearly the reason those numbers don't match his real world results, is because he plays in the biggest outlier ballpark in the league. His numbers are significantly worse on the road. Still a decent pitcher, but more like a #4-5 arm, but you'd have to fork over #1-like assets to get him.

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd only want a starter if it's a really good deal and/or it's longer term building block.

Yep ... another reason I wouldn't go for Montas

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'll take a chance at one better shot at a title in 2023 rather than two good chances at making it to the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023 while unlikely to have the horses to get past that round. Of course, this is saying Montas is the only move (or nonmove) and there aren't any other moving parts. There is the theory - if you make it to the playoffs, anything can happen. That has NOT worked for the Twins since 1987.

What about 1991?

[FlyingFinn]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What about 1991?

That team was well-rounded and played well all year. 1987 was much more unexpected with Les Straker as the #3 starter. So, for me, 1991 was more expected where as 1987 was a "make the playoffs and anything can happen" team.

[Old fox]

If the Oakland ball park scares you, then, the Reds ball park is the way to go. Castillo may be as good of a pitcher as Montas and they may cost about the same. May consider trading either Canterino or Balazovic for Montas or Castillo. Why this trade? Time is of importance (bird in hand is worth more than 2 birds in the bush). I like the record of either Castillo or Montas & both are relatively young age 28-29. The prospects don’t appear to be pushing the envelope to hard to get to the majors and they maybe getting onto senior age for  aaa or aa ball. The Twins may consider trading Constinio as there seems to be good demand for cf. 
What to do with either prospects Martin or Steer? Keep both, or trade one and keep the other, or trade both? I may consider trading Martin because I like Kirilloff & Larnach in the outfield & more power. I like Miranda at 1b and Lewis or Steer at 3b. It appears that Lewis will be on the IL for a year. Or is Martin destined to replace Gordon or Arraez? I would consider using Sabato, Waller, Strotman &Legimina trade able assets. 

[bunsen82]

Considering there will be 6 high budget teams looking for SP and Montas will be the best ticket available,  the answer is not likely.   We ended up getting Correa on a fluke.   Don't expect to get the best SP available on the trade market for a kings ransom.  

[Doctor Gast]

My vote is yes, Like everyone stated it depends on how costly it'll eventually becomes. We need a front line SP and I like Montas, I believe he could be easily extended, If Montas is unattainable FO needs to get busy & find a substitute. If FO dragged their feet and nit pick the deal could have been done earlier & cheaper.

The performance of our offense gets pretty frustrating at times when facing teams we should beat, but we have a great core. I believe everything will come together at the end and in no way we should start thinking punt again. FO should be out there and aggressively seek trades that'll improve our chances to advance in the post season

[Battle ur tail off]

15 hours ago, bighat said:

No, because starting pitching only solves half the problem.

In case you haven't been watching, this team can't hit. They scored 11 runs on Saturday, aside from that they averaged just 2 runs per game the rest of the week. They've been shut out 9 times in just over 60 games - they put a goose egg on the board once per week.

There are a handful of good teams this year, and a lot of bad ones. The Twins are one of the few teams who are truly mediocre this season, it's just hard to see that because they keep playing against terrible competition. But we've seen when they go against the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees - they get blown out of the water.

Leveraging the future of the franchise so you can pretend to compete in 2022 is not a wise decision. Play it out and see how it goes with what you've got.

Do you think the Twins will magically have a better lineup and/or rotation in a year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.?

 

What "future" are you talking about? Are we supposed to just hold onto all these young hitters in case someone gets hurt? It's not fair to them to not be on a major league roster. We have a glut of them, move them for where we aren't strong. It only makes sense. Whether this "move" is for this year or into the future at some point, you have to make room or move guys that are major league ready. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

50 minutes ago, Old fox said:

If the Oakland ball park scares you, then, the Reds ball park is the way to go. 

Yeah, Tyler Mahle has fantastic road splits. Even if the Twins didn't trade for him this year, he'd most definitely be a guy I'd be interested in as a free agent next winter. Put the pitchers in neutral ballparks and he's better than Castillo and Montas for his career. Not sure why Castillo is historically better at home, but he is.

[cjj td]

Yes.  Carry on.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Honestly, I don't think the starting pitching is even the problem, at all. Offensive consistency and the BP are the problems.

The twins offensive is not consistent because the have too many young guys and not so great guys playing at once. To expect Jeffers, Miranda, Laranch, Celestion, Gordon, Garlick, AK, Lewis, Palacios to be consistent is crazy talk, they aren't ready for that.

Add in injuries and you get the 2022 Twins offense.

Buxton, Correa, Plolanco and Urshela should be fairly consistent but injuries have hit them as well.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like enhancing the BP idea put forward here better.  With starters going shorter innings a quality BP would have a higher impact IMO.

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Do you think the Twins will magically have a better lineup and/or rotation in a year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.?

My personal feelings, which I've been running with since the lack of pitching gained in the offseason, has been that yes, they do need a year of experience, preferably with playoff experience included. Regardless of the regular season stats, I feel Ryan, Ober, Duran, Winder and to a lesser extent the young bats, do need the trials and tribulations out of the way before making an actual run. Obviously a team can win with young players, but this many young players, particularly this many KEY young players seems like a lot to ask.

Heck, I could see them all taking a step back next year in the stats department, but still be better equipped to win fall baseball games.