Ryan Jeffers is Secretly Turning a Corner

[Matt Braun]

Ryan Jeffers has become something of a punching bag amongst Twins fans. In a lineup full of boppers, his numbers stand out like a child’s doodle placed next to the Mona Lisa. His lack of production led Aaron Gleeman to write about his “frustrating” offensive development, and some have speculated whether a demotion to AAA would aid Jeffers in finding his groove again. I think this consternation is misplaced, and some under-the-hood stats reveal a hitter performing better than his results indicate.

 

 My colleague Nick Nelson recently wrote an article about Ryan Jeffers, outwardly wondering if the team mistakenly bestowed principal catching duties onto the former UNC Wilmington standout. While he never explicitly says it, and I would never want to speak for someone else, I walked away from the piece believing that he thinks that the Twins should not assume Jeffers to be a consistent, everyday starter for them unless he undergoes a serious evolution.

Without a doubt, Jeffers’ initial hitting numbers are dreadful, mimicking Tim Laudnerian batting prowess instead of the league-average flirtation we expected from him. His career .202/.280/.378 slash line is dragged down by an even poorer .181/.271/.312 2022 season so far. The Manfred Mushball can’t explain that away. Jeffers’s initial 2020 offensive promise seems to be a mirage; he has failed to sniff even league-average production since that year. 

However, there are under-the-hood stats that tell a different story. Dan Syzmborski’s recent Fangraphs article detailing under and over-performers based on his secret “z” stats caught my eye. Scrolling down a little to his “zSLUG Underachievers” list will procure a list of names, including our subject for today: Ryan Jeffers. ZIPS believes that Jeffers should be slugging .441—a number in the ballpark of Matt Olson's (.440) and Freddie Freeman's (.441) production levels, not the Adam Frazier (.309) plateau he currently sits at. Syzmborski’s projection system is his creation, so how it reaches that conclusion is hidden from us regulars, but it’s a good sign nonetheless. 

There are other numbers as well. His Baseball Savant page doesn’t reflect un-impeachable elite performance like one sees from an Aaron Judge or a Mike Trout, but it does tell a tale of an unlucky slugger. Jeffers’ xwOBA is .339—right above league average for all hitters. Digging deeper, his barrel rate of 9.0%—a stat that indicates specific instances of a player hitting the crap out of the ball—puts him in elite territory; 26th amongst all qualified batters in MLB. Barrels aren’t an end-all stat—a player like Luis Arraez can be great because of other characteristics—but it is indicative of extra-base damage, and Jeffers’ current production does not reflect how much impact his bat has.

There are other, more subtle numbers as well. Jeffers has tightened his command of the strike zone; his O-Swing % is down to 28.5, while his overall swinging strike rate has plummeted to 9.6%. Believe it or not, he swings at pitches outside the zone at the same rate as Luis Arraez (28.5%), and he whiffs at about the same rate as Paul Goldschmidt (9.5%). His total contact has also vastly improved (72.0% career vs. 78.5% in 2022, around Francisco Lindor territory (78.7%)). Those discipline numbers aren’t elite by any means, but they are average if not above-average in some cases, and average production would be a tremendous improvement for Jeffers.

Jeffers’ walk rate reflects these changes (10.9%, up from 8.6%), while his strikeouts have dipped slightly, but probably less than one would expect (30.1%, down from 34.1%). I believe those punchouts will drop even further, given his improved plate control.

Ryan Jeffers hits the ball hard at an elite level, has improved his plate discipline numbers across the board, and has worse surface-level hitting stats than before. That should change soon. The often-maligned 25-year-old has a good process in place; he has not found the final crucial step in unlocking his potential: luck. Once fortune turns in his direction, Jeffers will find himself as one of the better catchers in the game.

 

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[Game7-91]

Good sluething and encouraging report on Mr Jeffers. Here's hoping it comes true?

[RpR]

Wishful thinking, not reality at this point; comparing Jeffers to past people is rationalizing at best and dissing past players at worst..

What they did has zip to do with Jeffers being a liability to this team, not some thing from the past.

[chinmusic]

At this point in time, if Jeffers is secretly turning a corner, it's a pretty well kept secret.

Here's hoping....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Good analysis, hopefully the leading indicators predict accurately 

[Reptevia]

So some guy who made up some stats that he refuses to divulge thinks Jeffers is good?  Will he accept a trade?

[Minderbinder]

It's a well-kept secret, for sure.

[wabene]

Some good quips in this article, funny. I did just watch him crush a 2 run homer against the D Backs an add an obvious release of frustration bat flip.

[mikelink45]

We need to see more before we can compare him to the players that you pulled out to compare.  I am sure you can find some statistic from almost every great player that lines up with Jeffers, but what we need is some consistency and I actually have hope that last night's HR might be a jolt to bring him back to what he should be. 

[The Mad King]

Funny thing about stats. You can take 9 .300 hitters, put them all on one team, and they're still going to make 27 outs. Even at the All Star game, someone is going to be 0-3. I still feel Jeffers is going to be elite some day.

[h2oface]

It's all that Hank Conger influence, eh?

[tony&rodney]

Sanchez has taken over the main catching role and is hitting the ball pretty hard often enough while providing close to average defense, so the Twins just need Jeffers to be a decent backup catcher and develop his game on both sides of the game.

[terrydactyls]

A very encouraging article.  The next time I play a statistic-based baseball board game like Strat-O-Matic, I'll be sure to use Jeffers.

[TwinsDr2021]

The guy is 7 for 53 since 5/23. one could argue that is is the opposite of turning the corner.

I hate the stat Should be - "ZIPS believes that Jeffers should be slugging .441" He is slugging .329 for the season, end of the story on what has happened.

Now I do like using the stats to predict how somebody should be moving forward, and that seems like a good sign for Jeffers, and fingers crossed he figures it out.

 

 

[Whitey333]

A perfect example of the new analytics statistical crap the had engulfed baseball.  Baseball is a results oriented game.  To bring up some stats on bad luck and Barrell rates to make a .175 hitter look good is exactly what is wrong with baseball.  Jeffers is what he is:. A below average major league catcher.  Use the eye test.  It speaks volumes.

[ryan189]

you guys dig way to deep into these stats its ike if you take his numbers on Thursday after a day game on Wednesday when the weather is over 70 he should be a hall of famer

[Trov]

I do think Jeffers has suffered a little from the mush ball.  I think he has had several balls that were caught on warning track, if the ball was 2019 ball they are most likely HR and we have a very different story to tell.  Now, can Jeffers start getting the ball to fall, who knows.  The biggest issue I have is that he is not a top defender or a top hitter, which means we can upgrade.  I know he is great at framing, which I expect in next 2 to 3 years will be pointless as there will be an electronic zone.  Then he will not be able to "steal" strikes and unless he starts throwing out runners or hitting he will not bring much.  I would expect after the change in electronic zone he may change his stance to get better at throwing out runners, as right now the team has worried much more about the framing.  However, base stealing, at least by my eye test, seems to be up, and his lack of throwing guys out will hurt him in future when framing does not save him. 

[ashbury]

The Twins are a respectable 38-29 and that's all that matters.  It's a team sport. 

 

/ I mean, analytics is all about breaking things down to understand them better.  If you dislike analytics, why go for half measures?

[Schmoeman5]

The secret is no longer secret now, thanks to this article. All teams the Twins face for the rest of 2022 are furiously looking at the tape and trying to find ways of slowing him down

[umterp23]

So when Sanchez was on the shelf, Jeffers I believe played in like 10 of 12/13 games with Godoy as backup.  During that stretch, he wasn't elite but I think he hit close to .275 or so during that stretch.  What that tells me is he was getting daily reps. Getting daily reps at his age gives you some confidence, gives you some repetition and potential puts you in a groove.  Every other day or every other 2 days doesn't.  Not making excuses for Ryan, but hitting in a cage or BP vs live arms does make a difference.  I still like what we are getting from him with the amount of day to day inconsistency he has gotten.  

[Doctor Gast]

You are encouraged by the stats that Jeffers has a better feeling of the strike zone and is walking more often, the same thing could be said about Sano'. Like Sano', Jeffers has picked up some bad hitting mechanics which he strikes out too often,worse contact and has a lot of FOs. 

I'd still pick Jeffers to catch rather than Sanchez. Gray solely uses Jeffers, Jeffers is Ryan's main catcher and Archer's ERA is under 2.00  with Jeffers and over 6.00 with Sanchez. Jeffers although not perfect still handles the pitchers so much better than Sanchez. I'd like to see Jeffers to start every game at catching and not used at all at DH. And Sanchez brought in to catch only to PH in specific conditions.

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

A perfect example of the new analytics statistical crap the had engulfed baseball.  Baseball is a results oriented game.  To bring up some stats on bad luck and Barrell rates to make a .175 hitter look good is exactly what is wrong with baseball.  Jeffers is what he is:. A below average major league catcher.  Use the eye test.  It speaks volumes.

I have a friend who drives a 1977 Pontiac Trans Am. He's been driving it for decades. 

One day, he needed a little extra space to pick up some stuff that wouldn't fit in his car so I loaned him my 2022 Kia to take out of town and fetch the stuff.  

When he brought my SUV back, he complained incessantly about the lane assist and adaptive cruise control. 

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion. 

Jeffers is alright in comparison to the output of his catching peers.

However... based on his performance. The Twins need to simultaneously play him to see if he can get better while continuing to look for someone better in case he doesn't. 

At this point... there is no reason for the Twins front office to look at the catcher position and declare things good because they have Jeffers. 

 

 

[Heiny]

I enjoyed the article.  And the xstats are fun, but the name of the game is production.  Jeffers is not producing acceptable offensive stats.  "Period".  With neither catcher being able to throw out base runners even with what I believe are above average arms, we have another stat with below average production.  Thus we have below average catchers IMHO.  I'm also in favor of the electronic strike zone, and as a traditionalist, that pains me to say.  But the umpiring, again IMHO has been terrible this year.  Either get the electronic strike zone or get rid of the box on the tv screen.  At least it wouldn't be so easy to see the horrible calls.  All in all I hope Jeffers can bring his production up. 

[mikelink45]

As I read these stats I think about how BB had the Mendoza line and if you were below it, it was shameful.  Now we have multiple players on every team that are striving to get there.  I am amazed and disappointed.  

Now we only have to go down to player #87 (old friend Nelson Cruz) before we dip below 250.

And at 151 we are officially below 200.  (another old friend - Jonathan Schoop) 

If we assume 30 teams with 13 position players (I know there have been more) and we have more than half below 200 (I am only able to get the players who have enough ABs to qualify for batting average - none-the-less - it is putrid.  Call Pat Reusse.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

When he brought my SUV back, he complained incessantly about the lane assist and adaptive cruise control. 

That is because adaptive cruise control is terrible. If I set the cruise at 60, I want to go 60 not the speed of the car in front of me. Off soap box!

[ashbury]

On 6/20/2022 at 10:24 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

That is because adaptive cruise control is terrible. If I set the cruise at 60, I want to go 60 not the speed of the car in front of me.