Offensively: Just Sayin'

[DocBauer]

There's been a lot of recent conversations concerning the August trade deadline and what the Twins might need. And while any additions to assist the Twins in their drive to WIN, the Central and to advance in the playoffs to do well, if not challenge, are almost universally directed towards the bullpen and the rotation, there has been at least some talk about adding a position player to upgrade the offense, though that's clearly a distant 3rd on the list. Still, I think it's worth taking a look at. Further, there has been conversation about the number of shutouts the team has "zeroed up" thus far, and what it might mean.

It's always great if your team adds an even better player than they had before at any position. But in this instance, we're not talking about a young rising prospect, we're taking about a trade option. And that means prospect capital and a debate as to "cash out" vs return and how much of a return you might receive, especially if there are other areas of greater concern. And while the idea of leading the league in something as negative as being shutout, context must be allowed. 

Let's say the Twins end up leading the league for the entire season in shutouts and continue to win 90+ games and are in the payoffs. First of all, all teams and all payers have good days, bad days, hot streaks, and cold streaks. To carry it further, let's just attempt a similar example of winning teams. For giggles, we'll just use the Blue Jay's. Let's say both teams win approximately 94 games and are in the playoffs. And let's say the Twins end up with...IDK...let's just say a dozen shutouts to lead the league. But a stat-head looks deeper and sees that the Jay's lead the league in losses while scoring only 1 run in 14 losses. Soooo...the Jay's have a better and more consistent offense because they were shutout less?

Just saying, context folks.

Unless MLB changes gears again and decides teams will be allowed to continue having 14 pitchers...or do something crazy and raise roster limits unexpectedly...rosters will soon be split 13/13 in regard to pitchers and position players. Let's examine a HEALTHY Twins player roster.

OF:] Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Garlick 

INF] Urshela, Miranda, Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, Gordon

C] Jeffers, Sanchez

That's 14 players, folks, and 1 more than they can afford to have on the roster. And there's not a player, IMO, that doesn't bring something to the table and doesn't deserve to be there. So cut, injury, or demotion, it's already a crunch. So barring that, who can you add that really makes a difference to the lineup, enough, to warrant losing someone or trading someone? And if someone is traded, I can't see doing so for a rental addition in order to weaken yourself going forward.

So let's look at the Twins offense as it stands today, July 17th:

         BA.        R.     OB%    SLG.    OPS

AL:    T=3RD  4th  T=2ND  5TH   4TH

MLB  T=8TH 10TH  8TH    7TH    8TH

Honestly, some of these rankings are so close that 1 day can cause fluctuations.  But what this shows is two things. #1, the Twins offense is one of the top 3/4 in the AL at this point. Period. #2, there is an interesting fluctuation when the AL is compared to the NL in overall MLB rankings. Considering that cross-divisional play is still a relatively SSS, I put little stock in the NL just being better offensively than the AL. There are many factors to be considered from pitching to ballparks to weather. IMPO, I think it's a combination of all the above, PLUS, the NL having the DH for the first time. There is bound to be an adjustment period.

So there you have it. The Twins have one of the best offenses in the AL despite some bad days. IMO, the only "weakness" the Twins lineup has is a number of very talented but young players who haven't  been through the playoff wars yet. I just don't see where improvement is provided by any deal that makes any difference that, well, improves the offense to a degree that makes a difference vs need in the pen, and maybe the rotation 

 

[stringer bell]

Add one more position player. Sanó should be ready by sometime in July. I expect that there will continue to be injuries to prune the 14 to 13 or less. It usually happens that injuries strike the same position, as happened with center fielders last year. 

[Shaitan]

I think the amount of injuries (and timing) make the shutout stat misleading too.

It's a concern, but it's also probably overblown.

Let's just hope they can hit in colder weather (October).

[terrydactyls]

You know, Doc, if you keep presenting arguments based on logic, you won't have any smiley faces attached to your posts.  Remember, Twins Daily posts are usually based on bias, outrage at perceived horrible managerial decisions, and imagined front office incompetence (or impotence depending on spell check).

[ashbury]

I was with you right until the end when you failed to close your tightly constructed argument with Fire Rocco.

[insagt1]

I wonder if Twins really have a need for Sano anymore? Do we need another k machine down thr stretch? Not for nothing but this year nobody is going to beat the Yankees. They are well on their way to breaking a MLB record for wins. Twins can't beat them when they are mere mortals. This year is just plain scary. I thought we might be better than Cleveland and a step behind Chisox this year. Turning out that Cleveland is probably the best in the Central and Sox and Twins will continue to struggle to stay afloat. Twins can't afford many more games like last night against poor teams.

[chpettit19]

I think the problem with the Twins offense/position player situation is that they have too many "deserves to be on major league roster" guys and not enough "deserves to hit in top 5 of playoff caliber offense" guys. Urshela, Kepler, Gordon, Garlick, Celestino, Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda can all present very good cases as to why they should be on the Twins roster. Only Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco can present very good cases as to why they should be plugged in as everyday, top of the order players.

Kepler, Sanchez, and Urshela have solid cases as for being everyday 7-9 hole hitters on playoff caliber teams. And if they were hitting 7-9 (in some order) everyday for the Twins I'd be happy. The problem is, at least partially due to injuries to others, they're hitting in the heart of the order instead of bringing up the rear.

Jeffers argument really is that he's a very good framer and helps the pitching staff and they don't have any other catchers to replace him. Offensively he should be in AAA.

Gordon's calling card is being a "gamer" and providing solid speed and versatility. He's a perfect 26th man. But due to injuries he's had to play a bigger role than that throughout the year.

Celestino, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda have all had stretches that show they're ready for the bigs, but they need to continue to make adjustments and become more consistent. I'm a huge Kirilloff believer and expect him to lay claim to a spot along side Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco as an everyday, top of the order bat by the trade deadline. That'd give the Twins 5 everyday guys and a more than reasonable top 5. Maybe he won't do that, though. I believe in Larnach and Miranda as well. I think they could be the 6/7 hitters behind those top 5 and push guys like Urshela and Kepler to more of a part time role, but they're not there yet. 

The Twins have 14 ML position players right now, but I don't think that means there aren't spots that could clearly be upgraded. Urshela, Kepler, and Sanchez hitting in the heart of the order is a problem. They aren't good enough for that. They're good enough to be important pieces on a playoff team, but not top 6 in the order.

As for Sano, they should give him a nice long rehab stint to see where his bat is at, but if he's going to need another month and a half to 2 months to get heated up like he does in April/May then I think it's time to say goodbye. If he comes back swinging like his middle-of-the-season self then I let him ride out his hot streak as the DH until he goes cold again. But a cold Sano would get no shot in September or October for me.

[bighat]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the problem with the Twins offense/position player situation is that they have too many "deserves to be on major league roster" guys and not enough "deserves to hit in top 5 of playoff caliber offense" guys. Urshela, Kepler, Gordon, Garlick, Celestino, Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda can all present very good cases as to why they should be on the Twins roster. Only Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco can present very good cases as to why they should be plugged in as everyday, top of the order players.

Kepler, Sanchez, and Urshela have solid cases as for being everyday 7-9 hole hitters on playoff caliber teams. And if they were hitting 7-9 (in some order) everyday for the Twins I'd be happy. The problem is, at least partially due to injuries to others, they're hitting in the heart of the order instead of bringing up the rear.

Jeffers argument really is that he's a very good framer and helps the pitching staff and they don't have any other catchers to replace him. Offensively he should be in AAA.

Gordon's calling card is being a "gamer" and providing solid speed and versatility. He's a perfect 26th man. But due to injuries he's had to play a bigger role than that throughout the year.

Celestino, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda have all had stretches that show they're ready for the bigs, but they need to continue to make adjustments and become more consistent. I'm a huge Kirilloff believer and expect him to lay claim to a spot along side Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco as an everyday, top of the order bat by the trade deadline. That'd give the Twins 5 everyday guys and a more than reasonable top 5. Maybe he won't do that, though. I believe in Larnach and Miranda as well. I think they could be the 6/7 hitters behind those top 5 and push guys like Urshela and Kepler to more of a part time role, but they're not there yet. 

The Twins have 14 ML position players right now, but I don't think that means there aren't spots that could clearly be upgraded. Urshela, Kepler, and Sanchez hitting in the heart of the order is a problem. They aren't good enough for that. They're good enough to be important pieces on a playoff team, but not top 6 in the order.

As for Sano, they should give him a nice long rehab stint to see where his bat is at, but if he's going to need another month and a half to 2 months to get heated up like he does in April/May then I think it's time to say goodbye. If he comes back swinging like his middle-of-the-season self then I let him ride out his hot streak as the DH until he goes cold again. But a cold Sano would get no shot in September or October for me.

Very well said.

Regarding the guys you mentioned, the worst possible scenario is when they ALL play at the same time. For example, tonight the Twins have Jeffers, Urshela (batting cleanup!?), Larnach, Gordon and Kirilloff in the lineup - plus NO Buxton and they have Bundy on the mound.

An 8-1 loss is all but guaranteed. Cleveland is one game out and could easily slide into a tie for first tonight. 

I just don't see how an offense like this can continue to compete. I really have no idea how the Twins have won as many games as they have...but thinking back, we can remember all of those early lucky/gifted wins, and the reality is that this might be more like a .500 or so team when it's all said and done.

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

7 hours ago, bighat said:

An 8-1 loss is all but guaranteed. Cleveland is one game out and could easily slide into a tie for first tonight. 

I just don't see how an offense like this can continue to compete.

Um, every single member of the starting lineup had either multiple hits or an XBH, or both, on the way to a 11-1 laugher behind Bundy's 8 solid innings. Welcome to predicting single-game outcomes, lol

[bighat]

6 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Um, every single member of the starting lineup had either multiple hits or an XBH, or both, on the way to a 11-1 laugher behind Bundy's 8 solid innings. Welcome to predicting single-game outcomes, lol

Too true, man! Glad my pessimistic prophecy was incorrect - and by a mile!

[baul0010]

On 6/17/2022 at 11:20 PM, ashbury said:

I was with you right until the end when you failed to close your tightly constructed argument with Fire Rocco.

Well... there's really not much Rocco the rock star can do to screw up the lineup.  As Doc pointed out so eloquently, we have a top 3/4 MLB lineup.  As long as Rocco's pencil works and he remembers the names of his position players, he should be able to fill out a lineup card that will produce runs.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the problem with the Twins offense/position player situation is that they have too many "deserves to be on major league roster" guys and not enough "deserves to hit in top 5 of playoff caliber offense" guys. Urshela, Kepler, Gordon, Garlick, Celestino, Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda can all present very good cases as to why they should be on the Twins roster. Only Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco can present very good cases as to why they should be plugged in as everyday, top of the order players.

Kepler, Sanchez, and Urshela have solid cases as for being everyday 7-9 hole hitters on playoff caliber teams. And if they were hitting 7-9 (in some order) everyday for the Twins I'd be happy. The problem is, at least partially due to injuries to others, they're hitting in the heart of the order instead of bringing up the rear.

Jeffers argument really is that he's a very good framer and helps the pitching staff and they don't have any other catchers to replace him. Offensively he should be in AAA.

Gordon's calling card is being a "gamer" and providing solid speed and versatility. He's a perfect 26th man. But due to injuries he's had to play a bigger role than that throughout the year.

Celestino, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda have all had stretches that show they're ready for the bigs, but they need to continue to make adjustments and become more consistent. I'm a huge Kirilloff believer and expect him to lay claim to a spot along side Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco as an everyday, top of the order bat by the trade deadline. That'd give the Twins 5 everyday guys and a more than reasonable top 5. Maybe he won't do that, though. I believe in Larnach and Miranda as well. I think they could be the 6/7 hitters behind those top 5 and push guys like Urshela and Kepler to more of a part time role, but they're not there yet. 

The Twins have 14 ML position players right now, but I don't think that means there aren't spots that could clearly be upgraded. Urshela, Kepler, and Sanchez hitting in the heart of the order is a problem. They aren't good enough for that. They're good enough to be important pieces on a playoff team, but not top 6 in the order.

As for Sano, they should give him a nice long rehab stint to see where his bat is at, but if he's going to need another month and a half to 2 months to get heated up like he does in April/May then I think it's time to say goodbye. If he comes back swinging like his middle-of-the-season self then I let him ride out his hot streak as the DH until he goes cold again. But a cold Sano would get no shot in September or October for me.

We knew this team had several players (position & pitching) that were on the verge of contributing significantly but needed development time.  Kirilloff is a good bet to be a legit top of the line-up bat and Miranda is not far behind.  That came together quicker with the pitching side with Ryan / Winder / Duran and Jax all pitching well from the start.  Miranda has improved significantly and my bet would be it's a matter of health with Kirilloff.  Larnach is once again going through an adjustment.  I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a top offence for the next several years once these guys get more ABs under their belt.  It won't hurt to get Lewis back either.

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

We knew this team had several players (position & pitching) that were on the verge of contributing significantly but needed development time.  Kirilloff is a good bet to be a legit top of the line-up bat and Miranda is not far behind.  That came together quicker with the pitching side with Ryan / Winder / Duran and Jax all pitching well from the start.  Miranda has improved significantly and my bet would be it's a matter of health with Kirilloff.  Larnach is once again going through an adjustment.  I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a top offence for the next several years once these guys get more ABs under their belt.  It won't hurt to get Lewis back either.

 

I have hope for the future, too, but think they're still a bat or 2 short this year. Miranda and Larnach are the best internal hopes (maybe Steer? But he'll have his own adjustment period), but neither of them are guys I'd pen into a playoff lineup yet. So, for this year, they have 4.5 playoff bats (Kirilloff being the .5). Wouldn't suggest any big trades for anything but a controllable catcher, but they're still lacking consistent bats for this year. I agree there's hope for the future, but losing Correa will open another hole as well (fingers crossed for Lewis).

[High heat]

The line up looks a lot better with Buxton and Correa at the top.  They both need to be health which pushes everyone else down the order. 
 

Arraez hitting .350, Buxton with 19 hr, Correa up to almost .300.  Larnach has hit the ball hard, Polanco was heating up and has a track record of being a very good hitter. Sanchez has power and is playing decent defense.  
 

id say or offensive lineup stacks up to anyone.  Key is health come October!

[Trov]

20 hours ago, bighat said:

Very well said.

Regarding the guys you mentioned, the worst possible scenario is when they ALL play at the same time. For example, tonight the Twins have Jeffers, Urshela (batting cleanup!?), Larnach, Gordon and Kirilloff in the lineup - plus NO Buxton and they have Bundy on the mound.

An 8-1 loss is all but guaranteed. Cleveland is one game out and could easily slide into a tie for first tonight. 

I just don't see how an offense like this can continue to compete. I really have no idea how the Twins have won as many games as they have...but thinking back, we can remember all of those early lucky/gifted wins, and the reality is that this might be more like a .500 or so team when it's all said and done.

 

Well this aged well.  Twins win 11-1 with that line up and pitcher on the mound.  Cleveland loses their game and we back to 2 up. 

[Old fox]

I understand where you are coming from but is your position practical or reasonable?  The offensive stats well above average and secondly the payroll would be considerably higher than the 2022 salary level.  Furthermore is it fair to compare the catching offensive stats to the other 7 positions. I don’t so  Defensively the catcher extends a lot more energy, mental intensity & emotional intensity (stress) during the whole game. If you want to make a comparison then do it within the catcher position of the whole AL or MLB., It seems that most stats are down in 2022.
Can the Twins afford to bring back Sano~ & his strike out records? I am not comfortable with that move? Who are you & I willing to give up for a starting pitcher & relief pitcher? 
Who are the #1 starting pitchers available besides Montas, Castillo and other annual rentals which may come to the market place? A #2 pitcher Mahle or a #3 pitcher Blackburn? Montas & Castillio will cost the Twins a prospect from the 1-5 & 10-20 & 21-30 of the Twins top 30 prospects list. My trading of Twins prospects would be # 2Martin, #16 Sands  & #14 Sabato for the Reds (Castillo). My trade with the “A” for Montas & Blackburn and I would trade #2 Martin, # 14 Sabato, #16 Sands & #18 Strotman. Are my trade offers of prospects too high or too low? I would make 1 or the other but not both.  
My second trade would be with the Pirates for Bednar & Stratton for Twins #9 Waller, #27 Legimina. Am I offering too much or not enough?

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Old fox said:

I understand where you are coming from but is your position practical or reasonable?  The offensive stats well above average and secondly the payroll would be considerably higher than the 2022 salary level.  Furthermore is it fair to compare the catching offensive stats to the other 7 positions. I don’t so  Defensively the catcher extends a lot more energy, mental intensity & emotional intensity (stress) during the whole game. If you want to make a comparison then do it within the catcher position of the whole AL or MLB., It seems that most stats are down in 2022.
Can the Twins afford to bring back Sano~ & his strike out records? I am not comfortable with that move? Who are you & I willing to give up for a starting pitcher & relief pitcher? 
Who are the #1 starting pitchers available besides Montas, Castillo and other annual rentals which may come to the market place? A #2 pitcher Mahle or a #3 pitcher Blackburn? Montas & Castillio will cost the Twins a prospect from the 1-5 & 10-20 & 21-30 of the Twins top 30 prospects list. My trading of Twins prospects would be # 2Martin, #16 Sands  & #14 Sabato for the Reds (Castillo). My trade with the “A” for Montas & Blackburn and I would trade #2 Martin, # 14 Sabato, #16 Sands & #18 Strotman. Are my trade offers of prospects too high or too low? I would make 1 or the other but not both.  
My second trade would be with the Pirates for Bednar & Stratton for Twins #9 Waller, #27 Legimina. Am I offering too much or not enough?

Oakland and Cincinatti would reject those offers in a millisecond.   Martin WAS a top prospect.  Everyone wants to get rid of him because he is not looking good yet expect we are going to land a player that will be very coveted at the deadline.  Sabota is worth nothing and Cole Sands does not move the needle much.  Think Kirilloff / Ryan type to headline the deal plus Miranda.  It's a real simple supply and demand formula.  Those players are going to require players back that will be painful to lose.

We should always ask ourselves if we would accept a trade in reverse.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Old fox said:

I understand where you are coming from but is your position practical or reasonable?  The offensive stats well above average and secondly the payroll would be considerably higher than the 2022 salary level.  Furthermore is it fair to compare the catching offensive stats to the other 7 positions. I don’t so  Defensively the catcher extends a lot more energy, mental intensity & emotional intensity (stress) during the whole game. If you want to make a comparison then do it within the catcher position of the whole AL or MLB., It seems that most stats are down in 2022.
Can the Twins afford to bring back Sano~ & his strike out records? I am not comfortable with that move? Who are you & I willing to give up for a starting pitcher & relief pitcher? 
Who are the #1 starting pitchers available besides Montas, Castillo and other annual rentals which may come to the market place? A #2 pitcher Mahle or a #3 pitcher Blackburn? Montas & Castillio will cost the Twins a prospect from the 1-5 & 10-20 & 21-30 of the Twins top 30 prospects list. My trading of Twins prospects would be # 2Martin, #16 Sands  & #14 Sabato for the Reds (Castillo). My trade with the “A” for Montas & Blackburn and I would trade #2 Martin, # 14 Sabato, #16 Sands & #18 Strotman. Are my trade offers of prospects too high or too low? I would make 1 or the other but not both.  
My second trade would be with the Pirates for Bednar & Stratton for Twins #9 Waller, #27 Legimina. Am I offering too much or not enough?

Respectfully those trade offers will not even be considered. Martin is worth something (less than when we acquired him) but Sabato Sands and Strotman are not going to be of interest for any reasonable pitching. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Old fox said:

My second trade would be with the Pirates for Bednar & Stratton for Twins #9 Waller, #27 Legimina. Am I offering too much or not enough?

Based on the MLB trade simulator, you aren't even close, they are going to hang up pissed with that type of offer.  Bednar is really good and has 4 plus years of control. It would probably be closer to Winder and Martin. Or possibly even Ober.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, Trov said:

Well this aged well.  Twins win 11-1 with that line up and pitcher on the mound.  Cleveland loses their game and we back to 2 up. 

Sadly 3 blow outs and the Twins were only on top of 1 of them.