Article: Could Oswaldo Arcia's Ascension Mean Josh Willingham's Exit?

[Mike Sixel]

"one can always dream"..........................................................................

[josecordoba]

While the upside for the future is good, what do they do about the present? Just give up? I think they are in a tough spot, a spot they created.

 

What's the upside for the Present? Dave Cameron often makes the point that too often fans want to give up on the present when a few breaks here or there can make a team a contender (EX.Balitmore, Oakland in 2012). The Twins case seems to be different- Even in the best case scenario they don't contend till 2014 (Still a stretch). You get better in the present by having guys develop internally. The key is developing talent that will be part of the next good Twins Team.

[biscuit]

People are still talking about Parmelee as a replacement for Morneau. Right now, Parmelee couldn't replace Butera at the plate, yet alone, Morneau. He ain't got it.

[Riverbrian]

Nobody has to be traded... Someone will have to be sent down or waived... But no one has to be traded.

 

A little creative managing and there is plenty of playing time for everyone.

 

Its fun to think about trades but it doesn't have to happen to find room for Arcia.

[Twins Twerp]

Trevor May isn't even in the top 100 on prospect lists. There is absolutely no way that he is comparable to Cole or even Taillon. These are legit top 25 overall prospects and aren't ranked very far behind Sano/Buxton. Would you give up Sano or Buxton for a guy like Willingham? If you would then you are crazy? If you think Willingham is worth that then you need to re-examine Willingham. He is entering his mid 30's, he has a long history of injuries and he's terrible defensively. He's a nice player but I would consider a top 50 prospect to be a good get for Willingham.

 

I also think everyone on here is crazy for overlooking Alen Hanson in that org. Starting pitching is one need but MI is in pretty bad shape at all levels also. he also is getting close to attainable.

 

No way we get any of these guys in a trade. You are right, we may be overlooking Hanson, but he is unattainable in my estimation. I think a straight up trade Hanson for Willingham would be great for the Twins. Cole is a top 5 prospect who went ahead of Bundy and hits upper 90's consistently. He is probably one of the best pitching prospects in the past 10-20 years. Tallion is also a front line type starter and has no chance of being traded. Henson is a stud at a premium position and he would be great get. I think Heredia and a B- to C prospect is the more realistic option. Willingham just doesn't have the value that even Span and Revere had. We get so overzealous on this site with trades. I thought the haul for Revere was great and I was even hypothesizing the trade for Meyer - Span at the trade deadline last offseason. The best time to trade Willingham will probably be July, but I think we will be disappointed in the results. MI, pitching, or keep him, that is what I would say as a GM.

[cmathewson]

Why do the Pirates want the Hammer? I could see them having interest in Arcia, but I look for contenders to go after Willingham, and then only around the break.

[Twins Twerp]

Why do the Pirates want the Hammer? I could see them having interest in Arcia, but I look for contenders to go after Willingham, and then only around the break.

 

According to a report on ESPN.

[Steve Penz]

People are still talking about Parmelee as a replacement for Morneau. Right now, Parmelee couldn't replace Butera at the plate, yet alone, Morneau. He ain't got it.

 

I am not saying that Parmalee is a lock for the future because he has much to prove but this business about how he stinks or he "ain't got it" seems crazy to me. He is batting .237 which is 9/38. Lets say he goes 2/4 and 3/4 in the next two games. Now his is 14/46 and batting .304. Does he have it at .304? I think he deserves a fair shot before we start writing him off after about 8% of the baseball has been completed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I believe that he is about a week short. Now he would have to be sent down for 3 weeks to get that week back. A player has to be sent down for 21 days for that time to NOT count against his clock.

 

Are you sure about that?

 

Also, separate note, but if Arcia never went back down, he'd be a super 2 as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Pirates haven't had much success in quite some time, but unless they are in the thick of it, I don't see them giving up much to get Willingham, but I think someone WILL.

 

I'd agree that Cole or Tallison are likely not options, but that should be where Ryan starts, and he should hold to that until Pittsburg gives up something pretty decent. Morneau and Willingham should be flipped for pitching and middle infield help, or a very high ceiling catcher a few years out. I'd agree the Twins would likely need to add something to get one of those two, and I doubt it would be Wimmers or someone like that. I'd more suspect a guy like May or Gibson if the Pirates are desperate enough to ad a bat. That said, I'd think long and hard about something like that.

[snepp]

I believe that he is about a week short. Now he would have to be sent down for 3 weeks to get that week back. A player has to be sent down for 21 days for that time to NOT count against his clock.

 

20 days total, they don't need to be consecutive.

[jokin]

I see that you are applying the Duensing rule with this trade speculation.

 

Duensing rule - including a lot of useful but not great players with very little upside when trades don't even come close to an acceptable offer.

 

Origin - BYTO - About 2 years ago Duensing (and even Casilla) found himself in pretty much every speculated trade. It was getting ridiculous.

 

Didn't Swarzy get some honorable mentions of his own?

[Ultima Ratio]

There's no need to trade anyone if Arcia is the OF Rover, and the 3 IF just play a shift with the pitcher covering the weak side bunt. Problem solved.

[troyhobbs]

I think Morneau and Willingham have at least a few good years left in them. Any chance a deal involving Benson and Parmelee could fetch a decent arm? If so maybe they're a free agent away from being a pretty tough squad in 2014 and beyond.

[kab21]

No way we get any of these guys in a trade. You are right, we may be overlooking Hanson, but he is unattainable in my estimation. I think a straight up trade Hanson for Willingham would be great for the Twins. Cole is a top 5 prospect who went ahead of Bundy and hits upper 90's consistently. He is probably one of the best pitching prospects in the past 10-20 years. Tallion is also a front line type starter and has no chance of being traded. Henson is a stud at a premium position and he would be great get. I think Heredia and a B- to C prospect is the more realistic option. Willingham just doesn't have the value that even Span and Revere had. We get so overzealous on this site with trades. I thought the haul for Revere was great and I was even hypothesizing the trade for Meyer - Span at the trade deadline last offseason. The best time to trade Willingham will probably be July, but I think we will be disappointed in the results. MI, pitching, or keep him, that is what I would say as a GM.

 

I also don't think that the Pirates would trade Hanson since they don't seem like they are ready for the 'go for it' trade but my dreams start there instead of a borderline top 10 prospect in baseball.

[Oxtung]

Looking at teams that could potentially trade for Morneau or Willingham the pickings are slim at this point. The best bets seem to be the Blue Jays who could need help in the OF or at DH,the White Sox who could need help at DH or 1B if Konerko or Dunn succumb to age finally or the Yankees who are counting on Lyle Overbay at 1b. Many teams have OF prospects at AAA this year ready to fill potential holes making things difficult for Willingham to matchup potentially.

 

I only looked at teams expected to contend this year and only if they had an obvious weakness going into the season. Of course there will be injuries and good players who just fall apart throughout the year so more teams might become potential trade partners later in the season.

 

I have more detailed analysis in the next 2 posts if your interested.

[Oxtung]

Willingham

 

Yankees- Vernon Wells (OF) and Ichiro Suzuki (OF) are both old and pretty bad but the Yankees have Brennan Boesch as a backup and have 4 OF prospects at either AA or AAA to start the year including a top 100 prospect in Austin.

 

Red Sox- Neither Shane Victorino (OF) nor Johnny Gomes (OF) are big sluggers but they aren't terrible either. Sox have two good OF prospects at AAA including stud Jackie Bradley jr.

 

Orioles- Nate McLouth (OF) has been pretty bad the last 3 seasons but they have a decent 4th OF in Reimold and have a good prospect at AAA in Hoes.

 

Blue Jays - Colby Rasmus (CF) is a bad hitting CF but he is only 26. It's possible the Jays could move Melky Cabrera back to CF, he has played full seasons there as recently as 2011. Adam Lind (DH) was a real nice prospect and had a couple of good seasons but he is now 29 and over the last 3 years has a .724 OPS. They have no prospects for either OF or DH.

 

Angels- Peter Bourjos (OF) had a bad 2012 (.606 OPS) and is a CF but the Angels could move Trout back to CF opening LF up for Willingham. Trumbo is their backup and will hit but can he be an everyday outfielder? They also have a good prospect at AAA and two at AA.

 

Detroit- Andy Dirks (OF) is a career backup getting an opportunity to start at 27. Detroit is stocked at OF in the minors though with multiple prospects at both AAA and AA including top 50 Castellanos.

 

White Sox- Dayan Viciedo (OF) is only 24 and has played 1 season in MLB. It was a pretty good rookie year OPS'ing 737 but sophmore stumbles are not unheard of. The Sox have 3 prospects at AA. Adam Dunn (DH) is 33 and in 2011 had a .569 OPS. Marginal 3B/1B prospect Gillaspie is already on the roster as a backup this year.

 

Reds- Chris Heisey a below average LF with a career OPS of .737. The problem here is the Reds have big time prospect Billy Hamilton at AAA this year.

 

Giants- Gregor Blanco (LF) is a 29 year old with a career .681 OPS. Even with a .700 OPS at the trade deadline last year the Giants made no move. Will they this year? They also have 3 real nice prospects at AAA headlined by Brown a fringe top 100 prospect.

 

Rays- Shelley Duncan (DH) is a career backup and 33 years old looking to get his first shot at the starting DH role. His career OPS is 676. The Rays have stud OF prospect Will Myers, he came over in the KC trade, ready to contribute. Perhaps they could move their fielders around when he is ready to fill the DH role.

 

Rangers- For the most part the Rangers are setup real nice this year at OF and DH but Lance Berkman is 37 years old this year. At some point he is going to decline. Is this the year? Of course even if it is the Rangers have uber prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt only a call away at AAA.

[Oxtung]

Morneau

 

Yankees- Lyle Overbay (1b) is 36 and has a .683 OPS over the last 3 seasons. The Bronx Bombers have no prospects for 1B.

 

Rays- James Loney (1b) is 28 and had a .629 OPS last season. Shelley Duncan is a 33 year old career backup getting a chance to start at DH this year. The Rays don't have any prospects for 1B or DH but do have stud OF Will Myers at AAA. Maybe they could shift their fielders around to fill a hole? Even if the Rays are interested would they be willing to take on the salary of Morneau or Willingham? Would the Twins ever think of picking up part of the tab?

 

Athletics- 29 year old career backup Brandon Moss (1b) is getting a shot for the A's this year. He did have a nice half season in 2012 and his career OPS is .763. Can he play well enough in a full time role? The A's have no internal replacement candidates so if things go poorly they will have to look outside the org for support. However, like the Rays could they afford Morneau?

 

White Sox- Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn is 33. That's all I'm saying. They do have fringe prospect Gillaspie on the roster as a backup 3B/1B already.

 

Giants- Brandon Belt (1b) is a 24 year old with only 1 year of playing time. He did OPS a respectable .738 as a rookie but sophmore slumps aren't unheard of. The Giants have a fringe prospect at AA.

 

Blue Jays- Adam Lind (DH) has come on hard times recently. His OPS over the last 3 seasons is .724. If he stumbles there is no help inside the Blue Jays organization.

 

Rangers- Like the White Sox they have a good hitting veteran in 37 year old Lance Berkman (DH). If he can no longer produce they do have standout prospects at AAA in Profar (SS) and Mike Olt (3B).