Minnesota’s Not-So-Secret Postseason Bullpen Weapon

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s bullpen has struggled through different parts of the 2022 season, but a beacon of hope may be on the horizon. Can one returning pitcher help solidify the bullpen in the second half?

 

The Twins have seen the organization’s depth tested this year with seven starters on the Injured List as recently as Monday. Pitching also continues to evolve, with relievers taking on an even more critical role. Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated the AL’s fourth-lowest fWAR total and have allowed the sixth-highest batting average. The line between starter and reliever continues to be blurred, which might help one reliever transition to a bullpen role in 2022. 

Kenta Maeda is on schedule to rejoin the team later this year after having modified Tommy John surgery last season. A brace was added to the impacted elbow to speed up his recovery time. This newer development can cut the recovery time from the standard 12-16 months to 9-12 months. Nine months after his surgery puts him on the mound in June, while 12 months would be September.

“This is a rehab that we know takes time, and you have to be patient,” manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters. “There’s no way to speed up some of these things. We wish there was, but everything that we could ask from a player as far as the work that they put in, we get from Kenta.”

Maeda had been rehabbing at the team’s Fort Myers facilities but rejoined the team at Target Field over the weekend. He has been throwing from 120 feet, and his next step is to get back on the mound in the next two to three weeks. A lot of things still need to go right for Maeda to pitch in 2022, but the Twins are in contention, and he has a history of being a dominant postseason reliever. 

“I’m simply happy to be back, seeing the guys, to simply be around with them,” Maeda said through interpreter Daichi Sekizaki. “Just to be able to continue the same program at the big league stadium gets me going. (It’s) very exciting.” 

The Dodgers used Maeda as a starter during the 2016 playoffs, but he allowed eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings as his team fell to the Cubs in the NLCS. From 2017 to 2019, Los Angeles shifted Maeda to a relief role for postseason play, and he helped the team to back-to-back World Series appearances. In 22 innings, he allowed four earned runs (1.64 ERA) with 27 strikeouts and five walks (two intentional). His playoff prowess has been well documented, and the Twins may have an opportunity to use him out of the bullpen in 2022. 

Maeda’s regular-season numbers as a reliever are nearly as strong as his postseason dominance. He has pitched 42 1/3 relief innings with a 3.19 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. As a starter, his K/9 is a respectable 9.7, but he has a 12.3 K/9 out of the bullpen. Opponents have hit .219/.275/.381 (.656) with 13 extra-base hits in 155 plate appearances. He’s also earned six regular-season saves and finished eight games, so he has the “proven closer” title. 

Maeda has plenty of more hurdles before joining the team’s roster. There is also the question of what the Twins will need when Maeda is ready. If the team needs a starter, he must make multiple rehab starts to get stretched out. If the team wants him in the bullpen, he may have an earlier return to the Target Field mound. 

Do you think Maeda will return to the Twins this season? What role will he fill for the club? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Dman]

First and foremost I don't want him to risk injuring himself coming back too fast but if things come together and he can be ready in August or September that would be a big break for the Twins.  I would be hesitant to use him as a starter but since it would be a short season for him maybe that could work?  I don't really know what is realistic after TJ surgery.  Even a dominant pen role would be nice though.

[Trov]

If he can come back healthy and is effective, I would be willing to have him on postseason roster.  However, I would not be expecting anything amazing, but recent guys have been coming back from TJ surgery much faster than before. I would not count on him but he could be a surprise. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think he's the plan to augment the bullpen for the stretch run and hopefully the postseason. I live in LA and the Dodgers typically used him as a starter until August and then put him in the bullpen to limit his innings to 150 or less. They were concerned he would blow out his elbow since he came to the States from Japan with concerning medical reports on his elbow. He was a very good reliever and could be a dominant 8th inning guy out of the bullpen. We need at least 2 more late inning arms, more than we can likely get in trades. I'm hoping that Maeda is ready in time to be one of those arms.  

[bean5302]

Maeda will not return this year, in my opinion. The article the OP linked wasn't up to date at the time on the latest from Maeda which was this: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c so reposting your own article as a source is pretty weak.

A quick visit to any of the roto news pages
like this one 4/29/22 https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/20580/kenta-maeda (paraphrase, on track for September without setbacks)
or this 6/8/22 https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=12051 (won't even start throwing off the mound until July and this year is iffy)

If you're going to post an article... at least do a tiny little bit of research.

[mikelink45]

We cannot even play Buxton in the field most of the year, but we would count on Maeda to charge in and provide us with a key arm after his TJ recovery?  Not me.  If he does, great, but to count on that does not make sense to me.  We had one short season of terrific pitching, but don't even know if he would have been good if there had been a second half to that season.  Recovery from TJ surgery is not a guarantee.

[Sean.h]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

We cannot even play Buxton in the field most of the year, but we would count on Maeda to charge in and provide us with a key arm after his TJ recovery?  Not me.  If he does, great, but to count on that does not make sense to me.  We had one short season of terrific pitching, but don't even know if he would have been good if there had been a second half to that season.  Recovery from TJ surgery is not a guarantee.

I think, however, that the Twins can count on someone from their SP depth to function as a BP piece. For example, Winder might be really strong coming out of the bullpen in shorter stints. I think Winder has the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher, but ideally I would not have him start a playoff game this year.

[SkyBlueWaters]

16 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

Winder might be really strong coming out of the bullpen in shorter stints. I think Winder has the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher, but ideally I would not have him start a playoff game this year.

 

Good point about Winder in relief. Possibly Ober, too, if he continues to develop. Just please not Thielbar or Duffy. My heart can only take so much.

[The Mad King]

Hadn't even thought about him coming back as a reliever.  But I like the idea.

[jimbo92107]

The big comeback year from TJ is 2 years after, not 1 year after. Takes a pitcher about a year to find his game again. Don't expect a lot from Kenta. Love him for trying, but don't bet on it. 

[tony&rodney]

It could happen. Maeda is smart and knows the game.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Sean.h said:

I think, however, that the Twins can count on someone from their SP depth to function as a BP piece. For example, Winder might be really strong coming out of the bullpen in shorter stints. I think Winder has the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher, but ideally I would not have him start a playoff game this year.

I hope so, but so far we have not seen Winder recover either.  My hope has been that Canterino or Balazovic might rise in the second half of the season.

[FlyingFinn]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I hope so, but so far we have not seen Winder recover either.  My hope has been that Canterino or Balazovic might rise in the second half of the season.

Winder pitched 3 innings in St. Paul today. Stats looked good. Balazovic pitched in relief, which is interesting. Two good innings but gave up runs in the 3rd inning of work. Canterino being on the IL may end hopes of him coming up to the Twins this year.

[Brandon]

I think if Maeda comes back this season it will be in relief.  He can set himself up to be back in the rotation over the offseason.  If he is back by late August/ Early September then he would have time to build up in relief for the playoffs and show he is ready for that. I think we will have to wait and see if he can contribute in the postseason therefore it makes sense to not count on him at this time.  So at the trade deadline we should make moves as if he will not be here this year.  But he could be our World Series Closer too.

[Monkeypaws]

Frankly, I had completely forgotten about Maeda - thanks for the reminder!

 

[Danchat]

I think the real secret postseason weapon is Canterino, not Maeda.

[Major League Ready]

Let's hope he can spend the 1st three weeks of September in St. Paul and the last 2 weeks of the season with the Twins.  That would at least give him a shot at contributing but it's not something that should be counted on.  

BTW ... I hope Danchat's prediction comes true.  Duran / Canterino can be a shut-down duo for the next several years.

[Mike h]

14 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

The big comeback year from TJ is 2 years after, not 1 year after. Takes a pitcher about a year to find his game again. Don't expect a lot from Kenta. Love him for trying, but don't bet on it. 

This is exactly what I was going to say.

[Whitey333]

I highly doubt Madea will be back this year.  The team is very cautious about injuries.  Sometimes it seems overly cautious.  Look at the way they handle Buxton, Correa and others.  A man undergoing Tommy John has to be handled delicately.  I'm not sure what purpose it would serve to rush him back in.  

[TwinsAce]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Maeda will not return this year, in my opinion. The article the OP linked wasn't up to date at the time on the latest from Maeda which was this: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c so reposting your own article as a source is pretty weak.

A quick visit to any of the roto news pages
like this one 4/29/22 https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/20580/kenta-maeda (paraphrase, on track for September without setbacks)
or this 6/8/22 https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=12051 (won't even start throwing off the mound until July and this year is iffy)

If you're going to post an article... at least do a tiny little bit of research.

This morning there was an updated article on Maeda with Gleeman's mailbag, which mirrors Twins Twitter in the past week.  TJ isn't a guarantee, but at the moment, Maeda is on track for August/September.  The OP might not have linked the best article, but the premise and timeline is still accurate while still taking into account the uncertainty.

Personally, I am excited and hoping that Maeda can come back in time for September and be a postseason bullpen arm.  With how much time Maeda puts into his craft, I don't anticipate as much struggles as some.

https://theathletic.com/3364727/2022/06/17/twins-mailbag-kirilloff-maeda-jeffers/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

[Otaknam]

Now that the September call up rosters are limited I doubt that Maeda will pitch  this year. The team will need pitchers who have innings this year.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

This morning there was an updated article on Maeda with Gleeman's mailbag, which mirrors Twins Twitter in the past week.  TJ isn't a guarantee, but at the moment, Maeda is on track for August/September.  The OP might not have linked the best article, but the premise and timeline is still accurate while still taking into account the uncertainty.

Personally, I am excited and hoping that Maeda can come back in time for September and be a postseason bullpen arm.  With how much time Maeda puts into his craft, I don't anticipate as much struggles as some.

https://theathletic.com/3364727/2022/06/17/twins-mailbag-kirilloff-maeda-jeffers/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

I can't see how August is even a remote possibility. Maaaaaayyyybe the end September if everything goes absolutely perfect. No inflammation. No soreness. No unrelated injuries. No COVID.

He's unlikely to even start throwing from the mound until July and there's going to be more than a month of mound work before he's going full strength. Then there's a rehab assignment. The rotowire link I posted included a direct statement from Maeda on June 8th including the hope he could resume mound duty in 2-3 weeks and he wasn't sure if he'd return this year at all. I couldn't find the Twins Twitter statement regarding Maeda, but I don't have a Twitter account so it's possible it was for followers only or something.