Three Areas the Twins Must Improve for Postseason Success

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Braves hoarded mediocre outfielders, not relievers.

I agree adding to the bullpen should be a priority but some of our narratives don't match the facts.

Welcome to the internet. No need for facts. I am also amazed that being in last place while at 4-8 is forgotten in the opening paragraph.

[old nurse]

38 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Modern analytics aside, baseball has always been the most statistical of the major sports.  So I have never understood why simple average is commonly used (runs per game, in this case), but the additional step of considering standard deviation is not.  This Twins offense would seem to lead the league in the latter, and seeing a simple tabular league ranking would help make more understandable the sense that this is a feast-or-famine offense.

I would be very interested to see how high-deviation offenses fare historically in the post-season; I have this feeling that those are the teams who suffer surprising quick exits.  But I'm too lazy to do the work of programming and populating a spreadsheet  ...

Historically it seems like the Twins have a famine offense every October. Then again it seems most teams have a famine when they lose.  

When does something measure what it claims to? Is it possible given all of the variables you can’t for sure know because the same conditions will not last long enough to normalize. 

Losing 5-1 is no different than 5-0. The number of shutouts is not significant

[Trov]

14 minutes ago, RpR said:

For those whose faith is in  numbers, the fact the Twins lead the league in being shut-out should be large in their spread sheet minds.

I think the shutouts need to be taken in context.  Who were they facing, who was in line up, what was the overall score, how many chances did they have to score, what kind of defense plays were made in those chances, ect.  Leading in being shut out but still having winning record with positive run difference does not worry me at all. 

The first 3 shutout were early in season when other than Buxton, no one was hitting and he did not play in 2 of the 3.  Either way the first couple weeks we looked a mess.  The next game was against Verlander who was dealing, and we did not put out an A lineup for sure. The 5th game was against Houston as well, similar we had not a strong line up, left a lot on base with 9 going 0-7, it was poor game, but a couple of clutch hits would have turned it around.  The 6th game was very disappointing against Detroit who's starter had huge ERA going into game, but after he was out of game in 4 innings the Tigers pen is very good.  7th was again against Tigers and Skubal was dealing, their best starter not many chances and again not our A lineup.  8th game was recently against Rays, We had a better lineup, but Rays marched out a series of pretty good pitchers all  2.15 ERA or below except 1.  We had some chances leaving 8 on base. Finally game 9 was against Seattle and their best starter.  We had a few chances with 5 left on base and 0-5 with RISP.  

To me a loss is a loss no matter 1-0 or 10-9.  Both losses would be by 1 run and both something was not going right.  One it was the offense, the other the pitching.  If they lost a game 10-1 would it be any better than 10-0 because they were not shut out?  

The fact that many of the shutouts were either early when no one was hitting well for us, or with not our top line up, I think that makes things better because in must win games Buck, Correa, Polonco, Kepler, Arraez, and others will not be getting "rest" days.  Sometimes you will just run into a guy who is dealing or your team is just not hitting holes.  

[Brandon]

In the playoffs we should have Maeda back and he will likely be in the pen as a lights out reliever.  Also if we can acquire a starter like Montas or Castillo then Archer will be in the pen too if he is not the 4th starter which I doubt.  So I would focus on getting a playoff caliber starter then maybe a playoff caliber reliever.  As long as we don’t have any more major injuries, we shouldn’t need anything else. 

[TwinsAce]

50 minutes ago, Trov said:

The fact that many of the shutouts were either early when no one was hitting well for us, or with not our top line up, I think that makes things better because in must win games Buck, Correa, Polonco, Kepler, Arraez, and others will not be getting "rest" days.  Sometimes you will just run into a guy who is dealing or your team is just not hitting holes.  

Thanks for doing the work and looking at this a little bit further.

The Athletic article below about Arraez was interesting.  One of the points was on Arraez's home run against Cole.  Valdez and Arraez had practiced the inside pitch that day to be ready for Cole going inside.  Good preparation for a pitcher can make a pretty big impact.

I know Valdez is technically not the Twins hitting coach.  But coaching plans might be similar for the other players.  Could it be that at times, the Twins struggle when they come across a pitcher who they make one plan for, but then deviates from the typical plan? (And/or they struggle against the bullpen because they prepared one way, but then have to face the various pitchers instead of one pitcher?) Maybe those pitchers are either the younger unknown or a struggling pitcher who had to change their process?

I don't know if this would improve in the playoffs.  Part of me says yes, because they can plan even more for specific relievers.  But at the same time, the other team can also plan ahead and deviate more than normal.

Just a thought though.

https://theathletic.com/3366299/2022/06/15/twins-luis-arraez/

[RJA]

If the Twins add a starting pitcher, it only makes sense if he is truly a number 1 starter.  Trading for another starter similar to Gray and Ryan does not make a lot of sense as Ober is a pretty decent number 3 as it stands now.  To get a true number one is going to cost a ton, probably too much, and if the FO was interested in that they should have signed somebody in free agency.  At this point, I would accept the fact that Ryan can be very good for 5 innings, maybe 6 on a good day, Gray is good for 6, and Ober is good for 5.  Smeltzer may also surprise. Instead of overpaying for a starter, I would try to add a couple of top quality bullpen arms--mayber even 3--to add to Duran, Jax and Thielbar, and maybe Smeltzer and Archer, to create a lockdown bullpen that will protect leads.  That is somewhat of a Tampa Bay strategy, but I think it could make sense for the Twins with the hitting they have.  If the bats go totally cold, nothing can be done about that, but adding another bat beyond Kirilloff makes no sense to me.  We have to believe this team can hit even in big games.

[SkyBlueWaters]

The OP wrote:   "There are few to no trusted high leverage relief arms outside Jhoan Duran."

You could give Griffin Jax a little more love.

We have over 90 games left. Depending on how they develop, as opposing scouts get a better look at them and they get tested further, Winder and Ober might become better relief options. Smeltzer is becoming a pretty solid pitcher, too.

I generally agree that we need better BP options. But my biggest concern remains the rotation. If they are going to make one trade, I want a horse.

Assuming we hold off the Indi Guardians and Chisox (and if we can't, we don't belong in the playoffs anyway) we need at least three reliable starters, preferably four. Pretend Archer continues pitching as well as he has, his arm gets stronger, and he is going 5 or 6 innings keeping us in games.

 I'd feel a lot better going into the post-season with Gray, Ryan [acquired horse], and healthy Archer.

[MTV]

Starting pitching: Ryan and Gray look good enough to make postseason starts, Maeda might return as a starter (like Chris Sale for the Red Sox last year) but the Twins undeniably need either Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas.

Relief Pitching: The Twins have Duran, Pagan, maybe Smith, you might be able to turn Moran into a high-leverage pitcher, and you have Jorge Alcala back sometime in the next 1-2 months. The Twins will need 1-2 high-end relievers (David Robertson, Jeff Hoffman, Jorge Lopez) for good success

Shaky Offense: this is hard to fix with the bats the Twins have. Maybe get a guy like Trey Mancini to balance out the lineup, but not much besides that.

[Dennesey55347]

Excellent article! I've felt since 2015 (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco), only the latter 2 have lived up to their individual performance expectations in a Twins uni. The other 3 are a combination of injuries and unfixed (unfixable) hitting deficiencies. Correa was a good signing with his post season history but we have no other clutch performers, or even consistent RBI producers of any kind. Fewer than expected instances where offense wins despite pitching/comebacks (battling back to win 9-8) doesn't help either. Also, a severe lack of late game production is habit now. While I don't expect this team to make a post season appearance, I would easily expect pitchers to be the better overall performers if we somehow did. It'll be interesting to see where we finish after playing one of the easiest schedules to date, although we did get a brutal sample size of our efforts against the best.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, MTV said:

Shaky Offense: this is hard to fix with the bats the Twins have. Maybe get a guy like Trey Mancini to balance out the lineup, but not much besides that.

We're having trouble finding a spot on the roster for Kirilloff.  I'm genuinely curious how to fit Mancini in.

[DocBauer]

Thanks for a great OP Jamie. I think you pretty much nailed things right on the head.

I want to say I really like a lot of the comments and opinions presented here. I'd like to add a couple of thoughts overall before addressing the 3 points in the OP:

1] The goal is to win as much as you can and make the playoffs. That goal has never changed in the history of MLB, regardless of the post season structure. You can't win anything unless you make it that far first. Period. From there, anything can happen. We've seen that with our own Twins previously, the Braves last season, and various winners of the years. If the very best regular season, highest winning teams won all the time, there would be no reason for playoffs anyway. The Dogers would be a great example over the past 5-10yrs, not to pick on them.

2] I hate when the Twins offense is inconsistent. But who's offense is always consistent? Nobody's. Players and teams have good days and bad days and hot streaks and cold streaks. And I agree with Trov that perspective needs to be used in reference to the Twins having the most shutouts so far in 2022. Losing 5-0 or 1-0 remains a loss no matter what. If another comparable team has fewer shutouts but is lower scoring and has a lesser run differential, who's offense is really worse? There's a whole lot of context there to debate and disseminate. 

As to the OP, in reverse order of need:

1] Taking in to account what I previously stated, I question the need for a bat, as well as what it would cost and who you'd replace. AK and Garlick added, and the roster healthy, I just don't see any major holes. Sorry, I just don't with what we have now and how they produce overall. Right now the biggest problem is figuring out who to remove to get those 2 on the roster. That's a good problem to have! The only real issue I see is a number of young players such as Larnach, AK, Celestino, Miranda, who are just young and haven't been through the grinder. Talent isn't the problem.

2] Unless the Twins make a pretty MAJOR SP acquisition, I don't know that you vastly improve the rotation enough to warrant the move IF the guys on hand are HEALTHY. Fortunately, the Twins have about 6 weeks to see Ober and Winder healthy and to see if Smeltzer is for real as an option. And I'm not opposed to improving, don't get me wrong! But at what cost and to what degree of any improvement can you trade for? It better be pretty big if you do.

3] The pen is clearly the most obvious answer to seasonal and post season improvement. Getting by and being solid with what you have is different than crunch time, and that's not a shot at the guys who have gotten us here. I feel good about Duran, Jax, and Thielbar. I have questions about Pagan, but he's been looking pretty good as of late. I have a fair amount of faith in Smith if not overexposed. Barring a surprise or two over the next 6 weeks, what the pen needs is a pair of quality, veteran arms to lead the way. And I don't think you need to mortgage the future for some losing team's #1 pen arm who is All Star caliber. 

As i.mentioned in a different thread recently, in 2019 the Twins brought in a pair of solid, proven, veteran rentals in Segio Romo and Sam Dyson for a single top 30 prospect, another maybe top 40 one, and a couple of A ball fliers. Unfortunately, Dyson arrived injured and washed out. Romo was great, and was brought back for 2020. But something similar, two quality, proven arms as a rental would do wonders to deepen and strengthen the pen without sacrificing the future. Surely 4yrs later the cost of a pair of similar moves shouldn't suddenly be vastly more expensive should it?

[Blyleven2011]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Good reflection -  I see plugging Kiriloff into the offense, but there is nothing in the pipeline to fix the pitching.  Which means to change we have to sacrifice some of our prospects.  It will be interesting, but you are right, the Twins BP is not championship caliber and Ryan and Gray are our best, but would not be equal to the best of the playoff teams.  Besides the Yankees, think of the Dodgers and Astros and the lessons that they taught us. 

Right now the biggest concern is the rise of the Guardians - we need to take care of business in our own division to maintain our position and discussion about post season. 

This article is the best I read in along time here on twins daily  and Mikelink45 is right as usual too .

[Trov]

19 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

Thanks for doing the work and looking at this a little bit further.

The Athletic article below about Arraez was interesting.  One of the points was on Arraez's home run against Cole.  Valdez and Arraez had practiced the inside pitch that day to be ready for Cole going inside.  Good preparation for a pitcher can make a pretty big impact.

I know Valdez is technically not the Twins hitting coach.  But coaching plans might be similar for the other players.  Could it be that at times, the Twins struggle when they come across a pitcher who they make one plan for, but then deviates from the typical plan? (And/or they struggle against the bullpen because they prepared one way, but then have to face the various pitchers instead of one pitcher?) Maybe those pitchers are either the younger unknown or a struggling pitcher who had to change their process?

I don't know if this would improve in the playoffs.  Part of me says yes, because they can plan even more for specific relievers.  But at the same time, the other team can also plan ahead and deviate more than normal.

Just a thought though.

https://theathletic.com/3366299/2022/06/15/twins-luis-arraez/

Planning for a pitcher and how they will approach you is key.  Batting is such a chess match between pitcher and hitter.  If you look back at the game against Guasman, they clearly had a plan that if they fell behind, any pitch starting near knees they would take, expecting the change up.  It takes a strong hitter to take expecting it to drop and not get buzzed at the knees on a FB.  Buck is famous for chasing sliders low and away, fearing it will be a FB and he strikes out looking, despite it being a slider 9 out of 10 times.  Twins kept making Guasman pitch it in the zone.  

Now, when the pitcher changes it up and starts throwing FB when you expecting change ups, you may look foolish.