Three Areas the Twins Must Improve for Postseason Success

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins have led the AL Central all season. They are in pole position to secure a playoff spot. This begs the question; is the roster set up for postseason success?

 

 

Save your comments about the Twins inexorable run of postseason trauma. Everyone knows about the streak. I’m not here to talk about the streak. What I’m interested in is, are this season’s Minnesota Twins set up favorably (from a roster construction standpoint) to make a run in October? I think the answer is no. Here’s three reasons why.

A Lack of High Leverage Relief Arms
Watching the Yankees come back to win the final game of their series with the Twins was painfully familiar. The Yankees slowly eroded a 7-3 Twins lead, behind an incredible effort from their bullpen. While the Yankees are an extreme comparison (they have the best bullpen in baseball), they are relevant for a few reasons.

One, they are the type of team you are going to have to beat to make a meaningful October run. Two, think about how October games are won. Short starts, lots of relief innings. I know I’m not the only Twins fan who wonders, after a solid four innings from Chris Archer, how Rocco Baldelli will navigate the bullpen gauntlet with the limited weapons he has at his disposal. Here are a few of the Yankees best relievers by FIP: Banuelos 1.57, Holmes 1.65, King 1.91, Peralta 2.78. Let’s go through a similar exercise for the Twins: Jhoan Duran 2.96, Caleb Thielbar 3.05, Griffin Jax 3.27, Smith 4.52.

While the Twins bullpen has generally been successful, they are not set up for October success. They lack enough high-leverage arms, and overall quality depth. This must be addressed ahead of the trade deadline if the Twins are serious about winning in October.

Not Enough High-Caliber Starting Pitching
While watching the Twins repeatedly hit the ball hard on Tuesday against Logan Gilbert in a game where the offense put up a higher xBA (.244) than the Mariners (.241), I asked myself if the Twins have a starting pitcher better than Gilbert? You can make a case that Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are better, ultimately, they’re a similar caliber of starter to Gilbert. Outside of Gray and Ryan, there is no one on the Twins roster I would feel confident in going into an October matchup. Simply put, if the Twins are serious about winning in the playoffs, not just making them, they need to add another starting pitcher who can compete effectively in a playoff game.

A Feast or Famine Offense

I’ll end with the most modest concern. After losing to the Mariners on Tuesday night, the Twins has been shut out 9 times, most in MLB. While the offense is top ten in most major offensive categories (5th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA), they also have more peaks and valleys than other offenses. After recording 72 hits in 6 games against the likes of Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Nestor Cortes, they proceeded to score 3 runs in their next 27 innings, against the Rays bullpen, Chris Flexen, and Logan Gilbert. While the offense is the strength of the team, the caliber of pitching, particularly relief pitching, will make putting up crooked numbers in October difficult.

Put simply, this Twins team is a jack of all-trades, and a master of none. Their offense is good, not exceptional. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are the only starting pitchers who have any business starting a playoff game. There are few to no trusted high leverage relief arms outside Jhoan Duran. If the Twins are to subvert the incredibly tiresome postseason narrative, the front office will have to do something they have yet to do with regards to roster construction; go all in.

 

 

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[mikelink45]

Good reflection - are you anticipating some moves at the trade deadline?  I see plugging Kiriloff into the offense, but there is nothing in the pipeline to fix the pitching.  Which means to change we have to sacrifice some of our prospects.  It will be interesting, but you are right, the Twins BP is not championship caliber and Ryan and Gray are our best, but would not be equal to the best of the playoff teams.  Besides the Yankees, think of the Dodgers and Astros and the lessons that they taught us. 

Right now the biggest concern is the rise of the Guardians - we need to take care of business in our own division to maintain our position and discussion about post season. 

[Whitey333]

Good article.  Good take on the situation.  Although the Twins amaze me by being in first place, I am constantly reminded that this team is good but not great.  The fact that they reside in a weak division helps camouflage some weaknesses.  The good thing is they take advantage of that and are in first place.  Pitching is suspect all around, starters and relievers.  Starters don't last long enough and bullpen is way overused.  You are right the offense is jeckle and Hyde. I think the question is do they have enough talent to even make the playoffs?  Very questionable.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good, honest article. Thank you. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

I'm glad the bullpen is the top point. The way playoff baseball is now played, dominant bullpen depth is more important than top tier starting pitching. The Twins fanbase knows playoff success via Viola/Blyleven, Jack Morris, and Johan Santana. But right now a starting pitcher's job in the playoffs is to merely get through the order twice, unless it's a blowout.

The Braves don't hoard relievers in July every year coincidentally. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Bingo...It is the bullpen.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Good reflection - are you anticipating some moves at the trade deadline?  I see plugging Kiriloff into the offense, but there is nothing in the pipeline to fix the pitching.  Which means to change we have to sacrifice some of our prospects.  It will be interesting, but you are right, the Twins BP is not championship caliber and Ryan and Gray are our best, but would not be equal to the best of the playoff teams.  Besides the Yankees, think of the Dodgers and Astros and the lessons that they taught us. 

Right now the biggest concern is the rise of the Guardians - we need to take care of business in our own division to maintain our position and discussion about post season. 

Thanks for reading. I think how the FO plays the deadline will be a reflection of how serious they are about making an October run. If they acquire a playoff caliber SP and two strong bullpen additions, they have a much better shot at winning and October series imo. I want them to be more aggressive than they have at the deadline previously.

[stringer bell]

Agreed, bullpen back end is the #1 priority to address at or before the trade deadline. I think two high-leverage guys are needed, moving Jax, Pagán and Thielbar to less leverage. There are enough arms—that is there is major league quality even for the seventh and eighth best bullpen pieces— but I don’t like the Twins’ chances to prevail in relief pitcher battles unless they add an arm or two from outside the organization. 

[Trov]

I will agree we would benefit at increasing the pitching, in particular the pen.  However, I disagree with the sentiment that without adding to starting pitching we cannot win.  Both Ryan and Gray could win games in the post season.  Also, you never know what you can get from others.  If you improve the pen, you will not need 7 good innings from everyone, and we are not likely to ask anyone to do that anyways. 

Plenty of times teams have won series, despite having the lessor pitching staff, and lessor offense.  Both WS we won we were under dogs in the ALCS and WS.  Our win over Oakland no one gave us a chance because our best pitcher was the 4th best starter in the series, but yet we still won the series.  Then 2020 we had the 2 best starters going into the Houston series, everyone had us the favorites because we had Cy candidate Maneada versus journeyman Greinke, backed up by end or rotation Valdez, then Berrios versus rookie Urquidy.  Going into the series we were considered the better offense and better pitching staff, but yet we were completely outplayed. 

Last year Atlanta really had 2 starters you felt super good about going into playoffs, Fried and Morten, with 2 top high leverage guys, out of the pen.  Their offense was not great either. They got hot for playoffs and went onto WS.  No one expected it. 

Of course upgrading starting pitching, pen and offense, would help us win, but to say it is needed to win, or even greater to assume we will, just goes against evidence.  Yes, you can point to plenty of teams that when they had the better pitching staff they won, I am not saying it does not help, but there is never a guarantee one way or other.  We could go out trade away all prospects for Montas, and Castillo, the best two starting pitchers out there up for trade, and the top 2 pen pitchers, Contrees from Cubs, and some other top bat, and we still could get swept out of the first round. 

Being best on paper means nothing, it just makes fans feel better going into the games. In terms of the offense, every team offense is always up and down.  You point out how we did against 4 top starters, but then struggled against some lessor pitching, but then assume we will struggle against top pitching in playoffs, ignoring how they did against top pitching just recently.  To win in playoffs you need a few guys to step up and get hot, it is true for all teams.  We know anyone can get into a slump or a hot streak, you just need the team to not be in slump in playoffs.   

[PDX Twin]

Les Straker! We need Les Straker!

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Jovani Moran could be that high leverage relief arm for the Twins. I'm a bit disappointed that they sent him down for that reason, but in St. Paul he'll be the undisputed closer and so will at least get chances in high leverage spots. If he can cut down on the walks, he'll be unhittable.

Matt Canterino is the other name who could step into that high leverage role. I don't know what the Twins are doing by sending him out with a bunch of three inning starts. He could be up in the majors by August if they prioritize moving him to the bullpen.

 

 

[Karbo]

Great article! Hit the nail on the head. This team needs relief pitching, and needs it badly. Take away Jax and Duran and there isn't much left. 2 quality relievers at the very least are needed!

[Jamie Cameron]

14 minutes ago, Trov said:

I will agree we would benefit at increasing the pitching, in particular the pen.  However, I disagree with the sentiment that without adding to starting pitching we cannot win.  Both Ryan and Gray could win games in the post season.  Also, you never know what you can get from others.  If you improve the pen, you will not need 7 good innings from everyone, and we are not likely to ask anyone to do that anyways. 

Plenty of times teams have won series, despite having the lessor pitching staff, and lessor offense.  Both WS we won we were under dogs in the ALCS and WS.  Our win over Oakland no one gave us a chance because our best pitcher was the 4th best starter in the series, but yet we still won the series.  Then 2020 we had the 2 best starters going into the Houston series, everyone had us the favorites because we had Cy candidate Maneada versus journeyman Greinke, backed up by end or rotation Valdez, then Berrios versus rookie Urquidy.  Going into the series we were considered the better offense and better pitching staff, but yet we were completely outplayed. 

Last year Atlanta really had 2 starters you felt super good about going into playoffs, Fried and Morten, with 2 top high leverage guys, out of the pen.  Their offense was not great either. They got hot for playoffs and went onto WS.  No one expected it. 

Of course upgrading starting pitching, pen and offense, would help us win, but to say it is needed to win, or even greater to assume we will, just goes against evidence.  Yes, you can point to plenty of teams that when they had the better pitching staff they won, I am not saying it does not help, but there is never a guarantee one way or other.  We could go out trade away all prospects for Montas, and Castillo, the best two starting pitchers out there up for trade, and the top 2 pen pitchers, Contrees from Cubs, and some other top bat, and we still could get swept out of the first round. 

Being best on paper means nothing, it just makes fans feel better going into the games. In terms of the offense, every team offense is always up and down.  You point out how we did against 4 top starters, but then struggled against some lessor pitching, but then assume we will struggle against top pitching in playoffs, ignoring how they did against top pitching just recently.  To win in playoffs you need a few guys to step up and get hot, it is true for all teams.  We know anyone can get into a slump or a hot streak, you just need the team to not be in slump in playoffs.   

Yeah, I hear you. I think the thing i find puzzling is the Twins show a clear tendency to not let lower caliber SP go through the order a third time. I'm fine with that, but, in order to maximize that approach, the bullpen needs to be great. I agree that Gray and Ryan can both win postseason games, I just currently don't see a third guy that can and I think you want that for the third game of a five game series OR if one of Gray or Ryan implodes.

[Jamie Cameron]

6 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

Jovani Moran could be that high leverage relief arm for the Twins. I'm a bit disappointed that they sent him down for that reason, but in St. Paul he'll be the undisputed closer and so will at least get chances in high leverage spots. If he can cut down on the walks, he'll be unhittable.

Matt Canterino is the other name who could step into that high leverage role. I don't know what the Twins are doing by sending him out with a bunch of three inning starts. He could be up in the majors by August if they prioritize moving him to the bullpen.

 

 

Agree with both of those. Moran I dont think is ever going to get walks under control, it's part of his game all the way through MiLB. Canterino, if he can stay healthy and get his control a little better, should be in the pen late this season.

[GNess]

Nice article.

The FO will almost certainly make a move or two for a BP arm given the need and the young assets the Twins can offer in exchange. The FO can be trusted to do this - Right?

[PatPfund]

This is a good snapshot, but hopefully not fully correct. Because if it is...

...if the Twins are short a top quality starter (with which I agree), and most of the bullpen is junk outside of Duran (which isn't fully true, but Duffey, Thielbar, and probably Smith look like major liabilities), and we are only an average offense (not true except for the complete outages; the Twins are one of the leading scorers in the AL)...

...well, then there is little point making moves by the deadline, because you simply are NOT going to fix your rotation, bullpen, and offense with overpriced deadline trades. Better at that point to roll with what you have, and develop/build for next year.

BUT, if you can improve your offense's consistency by adding a high average/high power/clutch bat like Alex Kirilloff, and help the rotation by getting Winder and/or Ober back healthy and productive, and improve your bullpen by adding a top quality starter and thereby push an arm or two into the bullpen (Winder has the stuff to be a high leverage arm; Ober might as well), and add someone internal like Sisk or Schulfer (or both)...

...well, then it boils down to adding a quality starting pitcher, and that is fully worth pushing chips into the pot to get.

[TheLeviathan]

38 minutes ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

I'm glad the bullpen is the top point. The way playoff baseball is now played, dominant bullpen depth is more important than top tier starting pitching. The Twins fanbase knows playoff success via Viola/Blyleven, Jack Morris, and Johan Santana. But right now a starting pitcher's job in the playoffs is to merely get through the order twice, unless it's a blowout.

The Braves don't hoard relievers in July every year coincidentally. 

The Braves hoarded mediocre outfielders, not relievers.

I agree adding to the bullpen should be a priority but some of our narratives don't match the facts.

[Aerodeliria]

20 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Les Straker! We need Les Straker!

Yay! Actually Les Straker gave us the 5 innings he was asked to give. The bullpen disintegrated in that game against the Cardinals. 

[MMMordabito]

Logan Gilbert is an up and coming star, so I'm not at all surprised with the lack of offense against him.  With that said, the offense does need to be more consistent.  The lack of adjustments against the soft-tossing Gonzales was annoying, especially considering the team's history of pounding him.

The training room is where this team needs the biggest upgrades.  Can the Twins trade Tyler Duffey, Elliot Soto and Brian Duensing (after coaxing him back) for a top 100 PT and sleeper Soft Tissue Specialist?

[KFEY93]

50 minutes ago, Trov said:

I will agree we would benefit at increasing the pitching, in particular the pen.  However, I disagree with the sentiment that without adding to starting pitching we cannot win.  Both Ryan and Gray could win games in the post season.  Also, you never know what you can get from others.  If you improve the pen, you will not need 7 good innings from everyone, and we are not likely to ask anyone to do that anyways. 

Plenty of times teams have won series, despite having the lessor pitching staff, and lessor offense.  Both WS we won we were under dogs in the ALCS and WS.  Our win over Oakland no one gave us a chance because our best pitcher was the 4th best starter in the series, but yet we still won the series.  Then 2020 we had the 2 best starters going into the Houston series, everyone had us the favorites because we had Cy candidate Maneada versus journeyman Greinke, backed up by end or rotation Valdez, then Berrios versus rookie Urquidy.  Going into the series we were considered the better offense and better pitching staff, but yet we were completely outplayed. 

Last year Atlanta really had 2 starters you felt super good about going into playoffs, Fried and Morten, with 2 top high leverage guys, out of the pen.  Their offense was not great either. They got hot for playoffs and went onto WS.  No one expected it. 

Of course upgrading starting pitching, pen and offense, would help us win, but to say it is needed to win, or even greater to assume we will, just goes against evidence.  Yes, you can point to plenty of teams that when they had the better pitching staff they won, I am not saying it does not help, but there is never a guarantee one way or other.  We could go out trade away all prospects for Montas, and Castillo, the best two starting pitchers out there up for trade, and the top 2 pen pitchers, Contrees from Cubs, and some other top bat, and we still could get swept out of the first round. 

Being best on paper means nothing, it just makes fans feel better going into the games. In terms of the offense, every team offense is always up and down.  You point out how we did against 4 top starters, but then struggled against some lessor pitching, but then assume we will struggle against top pitching in playoffs, ignoring how they did against top pitching just recently.  To win in playoffs you need a few guys to step up and get hot, it is true for all teams.  We know anyone can get into a slump or a hot streak, you just need the team to not be in slump in playoffs.   

Lol this team hasn't won a playoff GAME in almost 20 years. And you are talking about getting hot for the ALCS? You have to get there first. And with the state of our BP (Lord knows where it will be by the end of the season) and our starters, winning A play off series, let alone the ALCS is a pipe dream. To sit back and go "nah this is fine" at the trade deadline would be moronic, and thats exactly what I expect the Twins to do. 

[Doctor Gast]

Agreed we need to at least replace the veteran closer that we gave away #1. A solid front line work horse SP #2, I'm not as concerned about our offense especially with Kiriloff coming back. Our offense seems to go flat and unmotivated against poorer team. At post season I believe our offense will be motivated to win if everyone is strong, healthy & refreshed. My 3rd choice is catching, and not only short term. I've never been satisfied with Jeffers with his arm and his hitting is especially sporatic lately.

[dex8425]

Pretty good synopsis. I had no idea the FIP's of our bullpen arms are currently that bad. 

Two bullpen arms, maybe a starter better than Archer.

OR, Pagan and Duffey suddenly turn it around and become trusted relievers again, and the Twins feel confident enough in Archer or Smeltzer to get them through the lineup twice in the playoffs and the Twins do nothing at the deadline. 

[jimbo92107]

This isn't shaping up to be a Twins win-it-all year, but if they want to get as close as possible without selling the farm, they need to add one good reliever, then bring up every hot bat in St Paul. 

DFA Duffey and Smith

Bring up Canterino and Balazovic

Bring up Kirilloff and Spencer Steer

In the playoffs, your #4 and 5 rotation pitchers become relievers, because you're trying to win each 3 of 5 series.

Bringing up the hot bats puts a little more pressure on opposing pitchers. We have seen that pressure rise close to the breaking point lately, but not quite bubble over into bunches of runs. Steer and Kirilloff add just enough pressure to blow the lid off some games.

[BH67]

For solid relief pitching, the Twins need to go to the portal.  In this case, a time portal, set to 1991 and Carl Willis.

Hey, a guy can dream...

[Trov]

1 hour ago, KFEY93 said:

Lol this team hasn't won a playoff GAME in almost 20 years. And you are talking about getting hot for the ALCS? You have to get there first. And with the state of our BP (Lord knows where it will be by the end of the season) and our starters, winning A play off series, let alone the ALCS is a pipe dream. To sit back and go "nah this is fine" at the trade deadline would be moronic, and thats exactly what I expect the Twins to do. 

So in 2020 when we were favored with better pitching staff than Houston, and better offense than Houston, why did we not win?  How did Atlanta win last year?  I was talking being hot for all of the playoffs, my comment about ALCS was back before 1996 there was no wild card round only ALCS and WS, so commented back those WS years of 87 and 91 we were not favored.  

I am not saying we would be expected to win if we stand pat, and agree upgrading team will improve chances, but it would not mean we will win, just as not doing something will not mean we will lose in playoffs.  So often so much of playoff baseball is who is hot going into it.  We could go out and get the 4 best starting pitchers and 8 best bull pen arms, and 9 top hitters, and we still may not win a playoff game.  Sure, we should, but nothing is for sure.  That is my point.  

I am no way saying the team would be, or should be, favored to win in the playoffs as they sit now.  But any team can win in playoffs when they get their. Yes, we have not done it for long time, going 0-18 in last 18 games, and not winning a series in 20 years, but each team is different and each game is a new one. 

[joefish]

How about a real first baseman who knows the position and a catcher who can throw a guy out once in a while? 

Or a pitcher who can keep the runners close?

Holes. We have holes.

[Harrison Greeley III]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Braves hoarded mediocre outfielders, not relievers.

I agree adding to the bullpen should be a priority but some of our narratives don't match the facts.

Fair point. They were quiet in July last year with relievers. I was sloppyon the wording but the Braves do prioritize top tier bullpen depth. This offseason for example they already had Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, and AJ Minter but they still acquired Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates.

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

Fair point. They were quiet in July last year with relievers. I was sloppyon the wording but the Braves do prioritize top tier bullpen depth. This offseason for example they already had Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, and AJ Minter but they still acquired Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates.

I definitely agree as a team building strategy!

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I’ll end with the most modest concern. After losing to the Mariners on Tuesday night, the Twins has been shut out 9 times, most in MLB. While the offense is top ten in most major offensive categories (5th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA), they also have more peaks and valleys than other offenses.

Modern analytics aside, baseball has always been the most statistical of the major sports.  So I have never understood why simple average is commonly used (runs per game, in this case), but the additional step of considering standard deviation is not.  This Twins offense would seem to lead the league in the latter, and seeing a simple tabular league ranking would help make more understandable the sense that this is a feast-or-famine offense.

I would be very interested to see how high-deviation offenses fare historically in the post-season; I have this feeling that those are the teams who suffer surprising quick exits.  But I'm too lazy to do the work of programming and populating a spreadsheet  ...

[RpR]

For those whose faith is in  numbers, the fact the Twins lead the league in being shut-out should be large in their spread sheet minds.