Were the Twins Wrong About Ryan Jeffers?

[Squirrel]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

500 at bats and people want to throw him to the curb. Unreal.

Who said this? The most any have said is maybe he needs a bit of time in AAA to reset his bat. I see no one saying to kick him to the curb.

[RpR]

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We had a crazy number of players with the opportunity to step up and lock down a roster spot for the next few years.  Kirilloff / Larnach / Miranda / Celestino / Lewis and Jeffers as position players.  Ryan / Winder / Smeltzer / Duran / Jax / Cano / Moran and Megill among pitchers.  Several of them are looking very good and we have two-thirds of a season for Jeffers and others to step up.

Wasn't some thing similar said about Hicks, Rooker, Sano?

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, NorthernAggression said:

It seems though with the proposed moving of second base and larger bases that MLB is trying to encourage more running. Whether that actually ends up correlating is anyone's best guess at this point.

For now though the running worries me a bit. The Rays just proved they can take extra bases that led to 2 or 3 runs yesterday.  Running gets de-emphasized because it usually ends up being an unneeded risk. With Jeffers there doesn't seem to be much of a risk.

The rest of his defense is above average and he seems to call a good game, so if he hits I think the Twins could live with the poor stolen base stats. However, if he continues to hit like an average catcher, then they might as well put someone there with better overall defense.

Yeah the changes are interesting, but who knows when, if ever, these experiments make their way to the majors.

The Rays did end up giving up two outs on bases trying to steal on Jeffers Saturday (only gaining one base on a successful steal).   So even as bad as Jeffers is at that part of the game it's still not completely without risk trying to take extra bases against him.

The bar for adding value by stealing bases is just so high.  Even if the league makes it marginally easier the math for success won't really change unless the run scoring environment truly tumbles.  So yeah he's not the ideal catcher, but the inability to control the run game just isn't too big of a deal in the MLB as is, and I don't see it changing very quickly.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Who said this? The most any have said is maybe he needs a bit of time in AAA to reset his bat. I see no one saying to kick him to the curb.

Must be in the duplicate thread, or I'm not reading them right. But that's how I read them. 

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

 

The Rays did end up giving up two outs on bases trying to steal on Jeffers Saturday (only gaining one base on a successful steal).   So even as bad as Jeffers is at that part of the game it's still not completely without risk trying to take extra bases against him.

 

One because of poor base running and the other because the they were out of challenges.

He is as close to a zero threat as a catcher can be at this point.

[Rosterman]

You usually steal off the pitcher. The catcher either gets a perfect pitch and is ready for the steal, or it makes the catcher work and he throws badly. Very few players put a team on edge of a steal these days, and have their pitchers/catchers approach the game systematically that way.

I almost wish he would go to St. Paul and just get work there.

Would advancing, then, Hamilton be so bad? Give the guy a chance to shine? I don't have any longterm stock in Godoy, and Sisco is out for the season. Banuelos is also a possibility. But the next batch is at AA. When do Isola or Bechtold/Williams get the bump?

I also believe Jair Camargo will be a free agent after this season. Correct me if I am wrong. Only 22, the Twins will have to make a possible 40-man roster decision on the guy. Can they advance him (health status pending) to Wichita and see how overmatched he is against an older crowd?

It will be a concern for the Twins going forth. Garver played himself out of catching already this season. Rortvedt, him of the massive python arms but the no-hit bat has also been on the injured list.

If we muist say anything about Jeffers bat, someone has to help a team make 24-27 outs in a game, which is why you bat him in the lower third of the order.

Anyone missing Willians Astudillo yet and his 57 games behind the plate? 7 for 19 in throwing out baserunners!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Wasn't some thing similar said about Hicks, Rooker, Sano?

I think most people were ready to dump Sano a long time ago and Rooker has not been high on anyone's list for even longer.  Which Hick's are you talking about?

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think it's clear the Twins didn't expect Jeffers to perform well, especially after last season. The front office wouldn't have gone out and traded for an arbitration eligible, fairly expensive catcher like Sanchez if they expected Jeffers to perform.

The front office clearly did hope Jeffers would make the necessary adjustments at the plate, though, otherwise they wouldn't be giving him so many starts.

Unfortunately, it does look like Jeffers' time as a starter is ticking down. I've made my previous prediction that Jeffers will have until the All Star Break before the Twins relegate him to expected career backup or MiLB roster filler. The Twins will likely move to sign Sanchez to a middle term 3-ish years contract if Jeffers doesn't turn it around. That said, it certainly does look like Jeffers has been unlucky so far so there may be a nice swing back in his favor.

You think it's clear the FO DIDN'T expect Jeffers to perform this year?

They traded away Garver and Rortvedt, adding only a guy who hadn't held onto the number 1 job at his previous stop with literally zero AAA options to compete for MLB playing time. He entered the season clearly as the #1 catcher. They even gave him DH ABs.

They expected him to perform.

OR...they cleared the way for someone they expected to fail. 

Which seems more likely?

[Reptevia]

Out of the four catchers, GArver, Jeffers, Rortvedt and Sanchez, Sanchez is the best this year. Do stolen bases maybe not matter as much as we think?  The FO really doesn’t seem too concerned about it. 

[Fritzderkat]

Nobody appreciates a decent catcher until they don't have one. There are few you'll find who can play good defense as well as hit. I think Jadi Molina.

[Vanimal46]

I like this reverse jinx series you’re doing Nick. Last week you suggested sending Buxton to IL and he won AL player of the week. I fully expect the same results here. 

[Linus]

He’s not a good catcher. His hitting speaks for itself although he deserves 1000 at bats or so for sure. His defense is completely overrated and it largely stems from the goofy catching position he uses (at the request of the coaches). It’s nearly impossible for him to throw anybody out and he can’t block anything in the dirt that isn’t right at him. 
I believe framing is overrated. The problem in trying to quantify it means you have to know whether a “stolen” strike was just a missed call by the ump independent of any glove magic. If umps are fooled by him jerking his mitt to the center of the plate then we need robo umps yesterday. How a catcher receives the ball has value. In the old days it was called soft hands or he receives the ball well but it’s cumulative effect isn’t that great. Go back to a crouch gain some lateral movement and throw somebody out. I’ll take the best you can do on framing after that. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Out of the four catchers, GArver, Jeffers, Rortvedt and Sanchez, Sanchez is the best this year. Do stolen bases maybe not matter as much as we think?  The FO really doesn’t seem too concerned about it. 

Where does a player score most easily from; first, second or third on a long single/

To say it does not matter, by any one,  is just plain silly.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Rosterman said:

 

Anyone missing Willians Astudillo yet and his 57 games behind the plate? 7 for 19 in throwing out baserunners!

I do!

[DocBauer]

Measuring defense for a catcher is the hardest defensive metric to evaluate. I've always said the best part of being a catcher is how you handle the staff. There's a reason guys have played 10÷years in the league despite average or poor offense. How big of a list do you want? Forget pitch framing for a moment, does your catcher block the plate, does he receive well, does he have the confidence of your staff? I'm sorry, I don't have the link right now, but I just read recently...believe it might have been here on TD...regarding how many games Jeffers has caught this year that resulted in 3 ER or less and it was impressive. He's a quality defensive catcher, and I'm just not sure how anyone can dispute that just watching him and the results.

His arm is average at best. But in the re ent Ray's game, which has been brought up, the pitcher (Sands I believe), virtually ignored the runners at 1B. That makes the job of the catcher pretty damn hard. He'll never be great throwing guys out, but work, experience, and a little help from his pitcher can hopefully make him at least decent.

I NEVER bought in to his offensive success when he first came up. Too much too soon, IMO. His 2021 numbers weren't great, but there was power and production, from a position you seldom see.  I didnt expect greatness here in 2022, but I expected more than we've seen so far. But much like Garver, he hit in college. He hit in milb. He was pushed aggressively through the system. Hes only 25yo with 500 AB under his belt. The offensive ability is still there, the power is certainly there.

Have the Twins made a mistake? IMO, absolutely not even though he has hasn't hit yet hit like hoped for. I might eat crow, but I think his bat will come around to be at least decent with power over the next year or so. 

Been impressed by the improvements of Sanchez. I'd be happy to have him back next season with Jeffers, and never thought I'd say that when the trade was made. 

I'm not happy with what I'm seeing right now, but like any young player, I think time, experience and coaching, we're going to see a better hitting Jeffers over the next year plus.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You think it's clear the FO DIDN'T expect Jeffers to perform this year?

They traded away Garver and Rortvedt, adding only a guy who hadn't held onto the number 1 job at his previous stop with literally zero AAA options to compete for MLB playing time. He entered the season clearly as the #1 catcher. They even gave him DH ABs.

They expected him to perform.

OR...they cleared the way for someone they expected to fail. 

Which seems more likely?

Yes. I think it's clear the Twins front office saw Jeffers as a potential starting catcher but weren't 100% banking on it. If the Twins had confidence in Jeffers, they don't take on $9MM for Sanchez; they keep Rortvedt or sign a less expensive, obvious backup.

They gave Jeffers at bats because they are hoping he'll perform. He's not performing. They'll continue to give him opportunities until the sample size is big enough to largely close the books on him and choose a different catcher as their primary (probably Sanchez).

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. I think it's clear the Twins front office saw Jeffers as a potential starting catcher but weren't 100% banking on it. If the Twins had confidence in Jeffers, they don't take on $9MM for Sanchez; they keep Rortvedt or sign a less expensive, obvious backup.

They gave Jeffers at bats because they are hoping he'll perform. He's not performing. They'll continue to give him opportunities until the sample size is big enough to largely close the books on him and choose a different catcher as their primary (probably Sanchez).

I wouldn't read too much into the acquisition of Sanchez.

 Derek Falvey has said that they made the Garver for Kiner-Filefa deal with the intention of keeping IKF.

Therefore, they didn't know the Yankees would come knocking on IKF so they were planning on Jeffers and Rortvedt at catcher with IKF at SS. 

Sanchez wasn't a grand plan. The Yankees really wanted IKF and the Twins really wanted out of the Donaldson contract. It's most likely that the Yankees probably insisted the Sanchez money be included in the deal. 

 

[Major League Ready]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I wouldn't read too much into the acquisition of Sanchez.

 Derek Falvey has said that they made the Garver for Kiner-Filefa deal with the intention of keeping IKF.

Therefore, they didn't know the Yankees would come knocking on IKF so they were planning on Jeffers and Rortvedt at catcher with IKF at SS. 

Sanchez wasn't a grand plan. The Yankees really wanted IKF and the Twins really wanted out of the Donaldson contract. It's most likely that the Yankees probably insisted the Sanchez money be included in the deal. 

 

Good point!  The way I see it, the Twins were going to have to take back salary or eat some of Donaldson's salary.  Getting Sanchez was a lot better option than eating salary.   We should keep in mind that Donaldson had an option for 2024 at $16M or an $8M buyout.  So, The Twins were very likely going to eat $8M down the road anyway and get nothing not to mention they have an extra $21M to spend next year.  

[jorgenswest]

According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.

Are you suggesting we consider the measures produced by an unbiased organization who's product is analysis of these exact scenarios?  Let's not get carried away.  Wouldn't it be a lot more gratifying to ignore these facts if we want to believe framing does not matter?  ?

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.

That's one theory.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

That's one theory.

 

Refute it with analysis. 

[Mike Sixel]

The last two "rebuttals" have absolutely nothing but snide to rely on. Zero date. Zero analysis. Nothing at all. Just a belief with no basis for that at all. 

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

The last two "rebuttals" have absolutely nothing but snide to rely on. Zero date. Zero analysis. Nothing at all. Just a belief with no basis for that at all. 

You like numbers, numbers are not fool proof.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Refute it with analysis. 

Well, for one thing, even fangraphs admits quantifiably measuring catcher defense is difficult at best. 

And they don't incorporate framing into their catching defense measurements.

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/catcher-defense/

So I choose to believe my eyes, and my experience...if you're routinely giving away free bases, you're not playing good catcher defense, even if you're gaining a strike or 2 per game (which I don't concede, BTW.)

Or, trust fangraphs' catcher defense rankings. They might be correct. 

But it's not proven science. It's theoretical. 

 

 

 

[bean5302]

Pitch framing doesn't seem to be a stat which can be valuable in small sample sizes. Jeffers has always been considered a good pitch framer, and he always had a reputation as a good defensive coming up through the system. Realmuto was +3 in 2020, +4 in 2021 and -1 this year so far.

Looking at catchers with 1000+ pitches received

2020 - 23rd of 53 = +1 run (max +5, median 0, min -5)* only 500 pitches
2021 - 16th of 59 = +2 runs (max +10, median +1, min -18)
2022 - 6th of 17 = +2 runs (max +4, median -1, min -4)

Jeffers is consistently a bit above average. He's not great at framing, but it appears his value is being inflated by small sample sizes looking at this year alone. The league will improve and Jeffers is likely to adjust a bit as well, the combination diminishing his defensive value.

He's well below average at caught stealing rate, which is largely a function of pop time, arm strength and throw accuracy. Jeffers has been absolutely miserable 2 of his 3 years in MLB at controlling the run game, and he was a tick below average last year as well. It's clear Jeffers has a reputation of being easy to run on.

In terms of passed balls, Jeffers is middle of the pack for the 27 catchers who have 1,000+ innings caught from 2020-2022 and he's among the best for wild pitches allowed.

Basically, Jeffers is a well above average receiver, but poor thrower. He's an average-ish defensive catcher in MLB with a very poor bat.

In terms of Jeffers' batting performance vs. his peers with 500+ plate appearances since 2020.
wRC+ 83 = 22nd of 29. (133 max, 94 median, 71* min) *technically, Austin Hedges is wRC+ 41, but he's 30 points lower than everybody else. It's inexplicable how he's still playing, especially at $4MM/yr. Ooffffda.
 

[Craig Arko]

I think we were all spoiled by Mauer’s tenure as a catcher. Not something you see every day.

[Linus]

In defense of our catchers they’ve been instructed to squat in such a way that makes it next to impossible to throw a runner out. 
 

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

You like numbers, numbers are not fool proof.

No one said they were  

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one said they were  

Of course, as any casino in the world can attest, fools are (usually) numberproof.