How good are the Twins?

[cHawk]

This team has been up and down to start the year. How many wins do you think this team will even out to?

[gunnarthor]

It's a good team and should make the playoffs. Really enjoying Arraez' break out.

[USAFChief]

As currently constructed I'm still thinking fringe contenders. Less than 90 wins, which might win ALC.

Add to the top of the rotation and add legit option(s) to pen, I'll up that. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Luis, Buck, C4, are an awesome  top of the lineup, plus look at their leadership, especially Buck and C4, plus if a guy is hitting .360 1/3 of the way into the season, and  has his head on straight, like Luis does,  I'm gonna listen to him too, even though he is young.  These are positive, encouraging, humble players and are good examples for the rest of the players.  Plus two have won platinum gloves. Plus each of them is playing the best baseball of their careers, as is Celestino, Larnach and Gordan. Polanco is heating up finally and will be OK. Sanchez and Urshela are great additions, ( both with their play plus their leadership). Jeffers will hit better, but even if he does not, his defense and framing are above average, which is very helpful . When the Twins get Gray (also a wonderful leader), Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Archer, Smeltzer, Bundy, Duran, Pagan, Duffey (if he can figure things out and is not injured), Jax, Thielbar, and Cotten all playing to their capabilities...that is a good pitching staff which, I submit, needs 4 starters plus 9 healthy relievers in the playoffs, then I will be traveling to Minneapolis in October to watch the Twins in the World Series. For me the biggest "if"  right now is the relievers.  and another key, in my humble opinion is the following: In handing out grades, I give the Twins A+ for their Chemistry grade. 

[ashbury]

I'm probably going to regret this but I'm currently not worried that they will fade and slip below .500.  85 wins?  That may very well be enough to win the Central.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I chose 90-94 simply because this division is turning out a lot worse than expected. I think the true talent level of this team is 85-89. 

[Squirrel]

I’m still going very conservative and sticking where I’ve stuck all year … 80-84

[LA VIkes Fan]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I chose 90-94 simply because this division is turning out a lot worse than expected. I think the true talent level of this team is 85-89. 

I completely agree. This looks like about 80-85% of a WS contending team. We need another late inning bullpen arm, a #2/#3 type starter and one more bat. If we were playing in the AL East we'd win 80-85 games. In the AL Central though, 90  wins is there for the taking. 

[wsnydes]

I went 85-89, leaning towards the upper 80's.  Probably more likely to top 90 than to dip below 80, in my opinion.  Still plenty good to win the division, but I'm still not convinced that they do any real damage in the playoffs with this pitching staff.

[bighat]

13 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I’m still going very conservative and sticking where I’ve stuck all year … 80-84

Honestly that's where I'm at as well.

This team isn't terrible, but they're not as good as their record indicates. Everyone's pretending that when Winder, Gray, Ober, and Ryan come back that they're going to be healthy for the rest of the year....it looks to me like we've got a bunch of guys (on offense too) with nagging injuries and there are going to be lots more IL stints for plenty of them. The Twins have been extremely lucky so far and I just don't see that holding up.

Bundy, Sands, and Duffey shouldn't be on any major league rosters, let alone a division leader. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors so far, folks.

That said, it's been a wild and fun ride for the fans so far and I hope it continues!

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are good (85+ wins), but a couple of trades could move them up. One big caveat is the bats. They are inconsistent, getting shutout often and then going on rolls. The defense is much better this year and the pitching may look like it could fall apart but the staff has been solid thus far. The Twins are fun to watch right now.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Honestly that's where I'm at as well.

This team isn't terrible, but they're not as good as their record indicates. Everyone's pretending that when Winder, Gray, Ober, and Ryan come back that they're going to be healthy for the rest of the year....it looks to me like we've got a bunch of guys (on offense too) with nagging injuries and there are going to be lots more IL stints for plenty of them. The Twins have been extremely lucky so far and I just don't see that holding up.

Bundy, Sands, and Duffey shouldn't be on any major league rosters, let alone a division leader. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors so far, folks.

That said, it's been a wild and fun ride for the fans so far and I hope it continues!

We really don’t know about injuries and staying healthy for the year. Remember, though, Ryan wasn’t injured he was ill. That said, I think our starting pitching will still be good enough to contend. I don’t think our BP is. I think it’s a good team, except for that. If the FO can work a deal for a couple of BP arms, then I might up my pick. If not, I still think we contend, because the central is what it is, but go deep into the playoffs? I’m not confident on that.

[IndianaTwin]

They are on pace for 92.95 wins.

• Regression to the mean suggests a slip backwards.
• At present, they are well above average in the number of players on the IL. Regression to the mean in health suggests a step forward in comparison to other teams.
• As a whole, they are youngish. Continued development suggests improvement.
• The front office has made trades every year at the deadline. This year's trades are more likely to add to current talent than to subtract.

With the net of those four pearled items, I think they will pick up at least the remaining .05 wins needed to end up at 93 or more.

[Major League Ready]

They are entering a stretch in their schedule of a bunch of weaker teams, and they are getting Gray and Ryan back.  Ober should also be back in about a week.  Obviously, they need to stay healthy but if they can go 19-12 over this stretch, they would only need to be 1 win above 500 the rest of the way to win 90.  

So many variables

Does the pitching staff stay healthy?  Which version of Buxton do we get?  Will the central get tougher as the White Sox get healthy and will the Guardians who have been much better lately contribute to making the central tougher the rest of the year.  Does Maeda get back soon enough to be a key addition down the stretch?  Any other additions to the BP?  Lots of variables but I am going with 91 wins which is 2-4 better than I estimated at the start of the year

[Number3]

Is this the same as previous thread "Is this team legit"? Legitimate contender is redundant. Contender is contender. If they split the final 101 games that gets them to 85 wins. I think what gets them to 90 is that they have yet to hit on all cylinders. I will go with the 90-94. Winning 2 of the last 3 series means a lot and could/should have won all three. Dog days lie ahead after the Indians/Guardians marathon to close out the month.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

17 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I’m still going very conservative and sticking where I’ve stuck all year … 80-84

So you think they’ll go roughly 46 and 54 the rest of the season?

[dex8425]

On pace for 93 wins currently with a SUPER banged up rotation and lineup...Some smoke and mirrors, but also have starters 1-4 out currently and still in first place...

My preseason prediction was 84-78. I think it'll be closer to 90 now, which could win the central. 

[Squirrel]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

So you think they’ll go roughly 46 and 54 the rest of the season?

It’s possible. I hope not, but … I’m also not going proclaim anything

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Number3 said:

Is this the same as previous thread "Is this team legit"? Legitimate contender is redundant. Contender is contender. If they split the final 101 games that gets them to 85 wins. I think what gets them to 90 is that they have yet to hit on all cylinders. I will go with the 90-94. Winning 2 of the last 3 series means a lot and could/should have won all three. Dog days lie ahead after the Indians/Guardians marathon to close out the month.

I had them at 90 wins too for similar reasons. This team went 5 and 4 against the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays while absolutely decimated by injuries.

they could gain some health and feast on the central some more and end the season strong, so I picked B.

they might not be built for success in November, but a couple good bullpen pieces could get them pretty close.

[nicksaviking]

Not a fan of how the poll is structured. I think the Twins could very possibly hit that 95 win total as they should get healthier and these young teams that win tend to have a surge at the end of the season. Plus, it's still the AL Central.

But win total alone doesn't make a team a contender. Too many important young guys, particularly the pitchers, need to get their feet wet in the playoff pool. Win a game finally, or surprise everyone and win a series, but I think they'd need some incredibly lucky matchups to take home the trophy.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Not a fan of how the poll is structured. I think the Twins could very possibly hit that 95 win total as they should get healthier and these young teams that win tend to have a surge at the end of the season. Plus, it's still the AL Central.

But win total alone doesn't make a team a contender. Too many important young guys, particularly the pitchers, need to get their feet wet in the playoff pool. Win a game finally, or surprise everyone and win a series, but I think they'd need some incredibly lucky matchups to take home the trophy.

Good point.  Obviously, they have a chance if they make the playoffs but "contender" has a connotation of having a reasonably good chance to win.  Fox Sports has their odds of winning the WS at: 81:1.  In other words, a $10 bet wins $810.  Those are not the kind of odds that denote a contender to me.  They probably make the playoffs but they are not a legit contender. 

Fox Sports WS Odds

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Good point.  Obviously, they have a chance if they make the playoffs but "contender" has a connotation of having a reasonably good chance to win.  Fox Sports has their odds of winning the WS at: 81:1.  In other words, a $10 bet wins $810.  Those are not the kind of odds that denote a contender to me.  They probably make the playoffs but they are not a legit contender. 

Fox Sports WS Odds

Preseason.

Preseason odds are pretty meaningless, particularly from a non-betting site with no actual wagering involved.

This site currently has the Twins at +2800 to win the WS. ( basically 28-1)

https://www.covers.com/mlb/world-series/odds

Roughly half that make the WS.

[Puckett34]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Preseason.

Preseason odds are pretty meaningless, particularly from a non-betting site with no actual wagering involved.

This site currently has the Twins at +2800 to win the WS. ( basically 28-1)

https://www.covers.com/mlb/world-series/odds

Roughly half that make the WS.

Glad I put $10 at +3700 on the Twins back in early April. Dunno if I'll win anything, maybe not. But at least the payoff will be nice if they do.

[KirbyDome89]

It's going to be tough for them not to win this division. They could realistically go .500 the rest of the way and take home the Central crown, it's that bad. The Sox are a mess and I don't expect them to suddenly flip a switch 2.5 months into the season and starting being world beaters. Cleveland just isn't that good either despite their recent run, and MN seems to own them. Toss in another healthy dose of KC and Detroit and I'd say 90-94 wins seems about right. I can see a scenario where the pitching drags them down but I still think they've built enough of a cushion to win this division. 

[notoriousgod71]

Low 80s. We're about due for an extended Buxton injury. The pitching staff is not trustworthy, and Sano will eventually come back and take ab away from someone while they try to "reestablish" himself for whatever purpose the front office sees fit.

 

Kudos to the twins, however, as I predicted 74 at the start of the year.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Preseason.

Preseason odds are pretty meaningless, particularly from a non-betting site with no actual wagering involved.

This site currently has the Twins at +2800 to win the WS. ( basically 28-1)

https://www.covers.com/mlb/world-series/odds

Roughly half that make the WS.

You make a good point about the preseason odds.  However, 28:1 is not exactly a true contender.  It's a relative longshot which is consistent with how many here have portrayed them.  Would you bet your paycheck (just one) one a 28:1 bet?

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Puckett34 said:

Glad I put $10 at +3700 on the Twins back in early April. Dunno if I'll win anything, maybe not. But at least the payoff will be nice if they do.

I’m rooting for you! You’ll be able to buy a bunch of chicken and 1 tank of gas with those earnings

[Nine of twelve]

If the Twins maintain their current winning percentage (.565 at the time of this post) they will go 57-43 over the 100 games left on the schedule to finish at 92-70.

If we do that Cleveland would have to go 64-42 (.604) to pass us. Additionally, they have to play 6 more games than we do, which means more doubleheaders and fewer days off.

If we do that Chicago would have to go 67-38 (.638) to pass us. They have 5 more games remaining than we do.

This is favorable.

 

 

 

[Number3]

Assuming they win the Central, we all know what the elephant in the room is; that first playoff series. The team needs to focus on the next game as in Seattle again tonight and go ahead and win the series just for kicks. As fans, we can start worrying about the first playoff series in October. Playoffs? Playoffs?