Can Nick Gordon Carve Out a Niche Role on the Twins?

[Matt Braun]

Nick Gordon’s baseball career has been an odyssey. The former 2014 first-round pick immediately established residence on top 100 prospect lists across the baseball spectrum, wowing evaluators with an effective combination of speed, batting average, and a potential future at shortstop. His story since includes pitfalls and more challenging experiences than first expected, but he is now finding an effective and valuable role for the Twins.

 

Consider this author among those once skeptical of Gordon’s MLB potential. The son of longtime MLB pitcher Tom Gordon fell flat on his face at AAA in 2018 and only rebounded to respectable, not elite, numbers in 2019. His bat’s potential was less dynamic, his ability to play shortstop was in the “capable of standing in the infield” camp of defensive quality, and the MLB meta grew detached from speed as a desirable trait. Perhaps some role as a utility player—the cursed designation for every fringe player—could fit Gordon’s general skillset, but he would never become a “set it and forget it” type of starter like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler; he had to fight for a role.

There are a few ways for an outside player to force a team’s hand; you either hit so well that a team has no choice but to find a position for you, or you scrap around and man numerous positions at an above-average level, allowing a team to use you as a stopgap player. Gordon fits in the latter category.

His bat isn’t otherworldly, but he does provide value with it in atypical ways. You probably take one look at Gordon—a 160-pound human according to Baseball-Reference—and assume that he’s the type to dink, dunk, and slash his way to doing damage at the plate. However, Gordon is something of a Statcast hero, owning a max exit velocity of 110.7 MPH in 2022, a number ahead of players like Luke Voit, Nick Castellanos, and Tyler O’Neill. Hitting the ball hard is far from the only way a hitter can do damage, but it does represent extra-base upside, and Gordon (perhaps surprisingly) possesses that kind of potential.  xwOBA likes him as well, as Gordon currently sits a few points above the league average in that stat (.333 to .329). 

How he reaches these concluding stats is the more exciting part. Gordon isn’t one to walk, and he has more swing-and-miss in his game than one would expect, but his contact is strong enough to offset his negative attributes; he owns a .429 xwOBACON in 2022. That’s xwOBA but only including balls in play. Do you want to know how good a .429 xwOBACON is? Josh Donaldson, Mookie Betts, and Paul Goldschmidt all have a lower number in that stat. When Gordon puts the ball in play, good things happen.

What has given Gordon the most value, though, is his newfound ability to play multiple positions. Various afflictions have required him to play left field, center field, shortstop, second base, and the guy even pitched once; talk about utility. He does more than just moonlight at these positions; Statcast credits him with an OAA in both left and center in 2022, as his reaction and burst make up for amateur routes. Considering that most of his minor league innings occurred at shortstop, his early success in the outfield is awe-inspiring; he played just 27 2/3 innings there in the minors. 

Gordon should continue to be considered solely a “break glass in case of emergency” shortstop, and he’ll probably only rarely play at 2nd base given the glut of talent the team already has there, but his defensive acumen should demand a more active team role than one of a player like Jake Cave. If playing time only exists in the outfield, he’s more than capable of making that work.

If baseball has an equivalent to the 6th man in basketball, Nick Gordon fits that role perfectly. He’s good at many things but not undeniably elite in any aspect of the game; Gordon instead takes a “jack of all trades” approach, one that stats can only partially quantify. This is also conjecture, but Gordon seems like an excellent clubhouse presence as well, and he can claim a stake in building the culture that many players have raved about this season. The 26-year-old may not be the star we once anticipated, but he’s a useful player on a winning team, and that counts for something.

 

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Before Lewis got hurt, I'd have had my doubts he'd be a Twin next year. Now? I'm sure he will. 

[Rosterman]

If Correa goes down again, I would use Nick at shortstop to evaluate his potential as a short-term replacement thru the return of Lewis next season. Can he do the job.

If not, he is just a run-of-the-mill utility guy with some speed. And until someone else offers him an opportunity to play mostly at one position, he will be a journeyman and his cost will dictate his life on the diamond.

Again, if given the chance. A non-contending team could take a gamble, and he could shine as a regular.

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Matt! I was one who advocated for trading Gordon when he was in AAA as SS, and his trade value was much higher and his value for the Twins was low. But now that his trade value is low, he is invaluable to the Twins as a 3rd CF and now SS. His presences will keep Kepler & Polanco in their productive positions. 

I had figured him as eventually become an average SS both offensively & densively, somewhere else. But his batting is above average now and I envision him to develop into a better hitter & OF longer he is in MLB. To be a serious contender we need at least need 3 deep quality players at CF & SS. Gordon provides that.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

Gordon should continue to be considered solely a “break glass in case of emergency” shortstop,

That describes his defense, and his bat isn't strong enough to make him an asset at any other position.  Even as a utility guy, it's not fun to be worse than the day's opponent at whatever position he's slotted at.  He's a candidate to lose a roster spot if any upgrade presents itself to the team.

[FlyingFinn]

Lewis getting injured probably makes Gordon's spot secure through the rest of the season. I think he gives 100% all the time. But he is not good for a major league SS and I don't see him making the roster next year as Lewis comes back, Martin hopefully is pushing to come up and Palacios plays better SS and does play LF (but not CF). I think the 40 man will have Palacios on it if Correa leaves because of Lewis injury. If Correa should stay, Palacios will be gone and Gordon could stay until Lewis is ready.

[High heat]

This same discussion comes up over month, he is either playing well and should be seen as “more” or he isn’t hitting well or makes a gaff or two and he’s ready to be cut.

Nick Gordon is a utility play!!! He provided great value in todays MLB with 3 or 4 man bench’s. He plays defense well enough at 5 different spots. He can hit well enough while not being givenconsistant ABs.

[D.C Twins]

Consistent and flexible average to above average play (at low cost) will always be welcome on a MLB team!

He's not going anywhere.

[bean5302]

Gordon is doing exactly what you'd expect from a super utility player. His bat hasn't been a black hole and his defense has been solid overall.

In regard to the emergency-only SS option, Gordon has handled shortstop well so far in extremely limited opportunities. Almost every defensive metric shows Gordon as average to plus at SS. Granted, those metrics are pretty worthless with their sample size, but for a guy the Twins seemed hell bent to avoid, he's looked okay.

[RochesterDave]

I watched Nick play for the Red Wings in 2018-19 and he never impressed me. He never seemed to hustle or dive for a ground ball when playing middle infield.  I am most surprised at the “new” Nick. He will never even be an average SS, but his flexibility and newfound OF play is quite surprising.  In the 19 (?) years the Wings were the AAA club for the Twins, I saw only two players who actually surprised me with their major league play improving - and they were Trevor Plouffe and Denatd Span.  I now include Nick as the third player in that group. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, RochesterDave said:

I watched Nick play for the Red Wings in 2018-19 and he never impressed me. He never seemed to hustle or dive for a ground ball when playing middle infield.

I saw him just once, when Rochester came to Pawtucket, but I likewise formed a poor opinion of his defense.  He has been much better than I expected as a major leaguer.  Still below average, and stretched as a CF as we saw the other night, but he makes the most of his skills.  I would still consider him a prime candidate for an upgrade if one becomes available.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I appreciate the first hand accounts from @RochesterDave and @ashbury - thanks!

Nice commentary as usual, Matt. Indeed, Gordon was a nice trade piece back in the the 2016-2019 years. Gordon was also not the first middle infielder to be called up in early 2021 (Blankenhorn who threw that ball away in Oakland and at least one other name we have all forgotten already) were called to the big leagues ahead of Gordon.

But this is 2022 and Gordon can continue to be a nice player off the bench or to spot start for this team.

[twins_89]

I'm skeptical that Gordon will stay with the Twins. In the outfield, Celestino is a superior option who should be the first in line to fill in for all 3 spots (with Kirilloff an option in RF/LF). In the infield, Arraez seems destined to be the super utility guy who plays every day at one of 1B/2B/3B. If a shortstop is needed for any length of time, Palacios looks like the preferred replacement.

In terms of the near future, Steer is also a utility infield option that could be ready as soon as the second half of this season. It's hard for me to see where Gordon is going to find playing time. As far as the active roster, Celestino/Arraez/Miranda are clearly ahead of Gordon and I would guess Steer/Kirilloff will be fairly soon meaning Gordon could be left without a spot. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

If it were TK or Gardy managing, I would be happy that the Twins have a 13th position player that doesn't require much playing time and has a defined, and definitely limited, role that he fills well, even if that role requires some versatility.

With Rocco managing, Twins fans have to hope that every guy on that bench can play almost every day, because he probably will. Which isn't necessarily a knock on Rocco, but it is probably not a role you want for Gordon.

All that said, with Lewis injured, even if Kirilloff comes back, Gordon is still the best 13th man the Twins can field right now.

[Scott51104]

"he owns a .429 xwOBACON in 2022"

 

ooh, BACON

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Gordon is doing exactly what you'd expect from a super utility player. His bat hasn't been a black hole and his defense has been solid overall.

In regard to the emergency-only SS option, Gordon has handled shortstop well so far in extremely limited opportunities. Almost every defensive metric shows Gordon as average to plus at SS. Granted, those metrics are pretty worthless with their sample size, but for a guy the Twins seemed hell bent to avoid, he's looked okay.

I couldn't disagree more. Gordon shouldn't be at SS, except in emergencies.

He's not a MLB SS. 

He's not the worst utility player in MLB, and he's gonna be here through 2022, but I hope the Twins look to upgrade in the future. He does a lot of things...below average to way below average. 

[jorgenswest]

He has carved out a role and is worthy of a roster spot.

As for upgrade I don’t think they should aim to upgrade a bench spot with another bench player. I think you upgrade to someone who is going to knock several players down a notch and maybe it is Gordon that is left without a spot.

[bean5302]

Nick Gordon:

SS Fielding Metrics (extremely small sample size of 23 games)
Fielding Pct = .962 vs .972 avg
UZR/150 = +14.3
OAA = +1
RF/9 = 3.88 vs 3.84 avg
DRS/yr = -10
Rtot/yr = -10


CF Fielding Metrics (small sample size of 50 games)
Fielding Pct = 1.000 vs. .992 avg
UZR/150 = +5.3
OAA = -2
RF/9 = 2.66 vs. 2.56 avg
DRS/yr = 0
Ttot/yr = -12

Gordon's sprint speed this year is 28.2 ft/sec. He's not a plus CF in terms of speed, but he's hardly pressed for range in the position. Buxton is 29.0 ft/sec this season. Celestino 27.5 ft/sec, Kepler 27.9 ft/sec, Lewis 28.4 ft/sec. When it comes to SS, Gordon is faster than average and just as fast as the other potential shortstop options like aforementioned Lewis and the rest of Correa 27.0 ft/sec, Palacios 27.9 ft/sec, and the oft mentioned Polanco 28.2 ft/sec.

I advocated for seeing Gordon at SS last year in an extended role, but the Twins gave him virtually no shot and his many critics on this site had already written him off. I don't know if Gordon can hold down SS in a larger sample, but so far, he's been adequate. In CF, he's also been adequate.

 

[RpR]

Twins do not need adequate at SS, they need superior.

[Mike Sixel]

21 hours ago, RpR said:

Twins do not need adequate at SS, they need superior.

They have CC.... This thread is about a backup. What even is this post?