What will it take?

[jorgenswest]

We need pitching. What will it take to transform this pitching staffs to a contender?

I think we need a starter at the top of our rotation to push Ryan and Gray down a slot. That will be expensive. It might cost Royce Lewis and a top pitching prospect. 

I think we need two bullpen arms to pair with Duran. It might be 3 by the deadline. It is reasonable to worry about Duran’s injury history. One needs to be a pitcher at the top of the pen. They need another to slot in with Duran in the late game and preferably a lefty. 

They need to acquire the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline. They probably also need to add the best reliever moved as well as a really good lefty.

Is it worth the cost of our best young players to go for it?

Do we settle for just competing for the central and moving only marginal prospects?

I sometimes here that once you get to the playoffs it’s a crapshoot. I am not sure it is possible to lose at craps this many times in a row. I think we can predict how the playoffs will go without significant additions to the top of the rotation and pen.

 

My interest is in hearing what you think. What will it take? Would you go for it? I am not interested in reading about what you think the front office will do or has done in the past. Let’s leave them out of it. There are plenty of posts where I can go see those thoughts.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree that any trade for a starter needs to be for a near top of rotation guy. The only available guy I see is Frankie Montas but I'm certainly open to another with at least 1.5 years of control left. I would be willing to trade a hitting piece like Larnach, Steer or Kirilloff, plus a good AA or AAA pitching prospect and a more long-term pitching prospect for someone like that. Otherwise, I don't think trading for a starter is a good idea. This team is a year away from truly contending so let's use this year to give as many starts as possible to Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, and even Sands. Let's see if they can develop into productive rotation pieces for the next few years rather than give starts to a mid-rotation or back end veteran guy. Keep Gray and Archer, dump Bundy. 

I would be a little more open to trading for a veteran reliever, but only by trading younger prospects rather than someone close to the majors. I would not be willing to give up one of our better prospects for a "name" reliever since that typically does not work out very well.

Bottom line, I think this is a fun team in a development year. It would really be great to make playoffs and finally win a game or two, or even the series against a 6th seed if we can somehow win the division. I don't think adding one guy is going to make a difference so I would roll with the guys we have unless we can get that top of rotation starter who has at least 1.5 years of control and even then, I want us to have at least a chance of extending that guy before giving up our higher end prospects. We just aren't that close yet, but we could be by next season if guys develop. Next year might be the year to mortgage some of the farm to get a guy or two to put us over the top.

[Vanimal46]

I’d rather load up on bullpen arms than pay premium prices for 1.5 years of Montas, Mahle, Castillo, etc. Since this topic is mostly about playoffs starters rarely pitch past the 5th anyway. Teams want to get to their bullpen right away and control the game that way. So let’s find 2-3 arms to team up with Duran and build a lockdown pen. 

[bean5302]

Availability, for one thing. Teams who are actively competing or are expecting to compete in the immediate future are not going to be trading top tier starters.

• Frankie Montas - 1.5yrs (Arb 2) $5MM
• Sandy Alcantara - 4.5/5.5yrs and $56/77MM
• Pablo Lopez - 2.5yrs (Arb 1) $2.5MM

These are probably the best targets as Oakland and Miami are a mess.

I think Miami would be willing to move both Alcantara and Lopez, but Alcantara would be the more expensive. Oakland likely wants a haul similar to what the Twins got for Berrios.

• Frankie Montas = Balazovic & Larnach
• Sandy Alcantara = Lewis, Woods-Richardson, Miranda, Steer
• Pablo Lopez = Lewis, Winder, Steer

 

 

[dex8425]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Availability, for one thing. Teams who are actively competing or are expecting to compete in the immediate future are not going to be trading top tier starters.

• Frankie Montas - 1.5yrs (Arb 2) $5MM
• Sandy Alcantara - 4.5/5.5yrs and $56/77MM
• Pablo Lopez - 2.5yrs (Arb 1) $2.5MM

These are probably the best targets as Oakland and Miami are a mess.

I think Miami would be willing to move both Alcantara and Lopez, but Alcantara would be the more expensive. Oakland likely wants a haul similar to what the Twins got for Berrios.

• Frankie Montas = Balazovic & Larnach
• Sandy Alcantara = Lewis, Woods-Richardson, Miranda, Steer
• Pablo Lopez = Lewis, Winder, Steer

 

 

Balazovic and Larnach is a lesser package than SWR and Martin. Oakland is going to get/want top prospects not on the 40 man. They'd probably pick up the phone if the package starts with Lewis, even though he takes up a 40 man spot. I could see Oakland coveting Noah Miller. 

[dex8425]

I would not trade significant prospect capital to get a starter, as I don't think Montas or Alcantara or Castillo are going to move the needle this season or next. I'd trade to improve the 'pen, even if only for a rental. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

My read is that Royce Lewis showed enough in his short stint with the Twins to put to rest any doubts about his status as a top ten prospect. I would think Lewis would fetch the best available pitcher and teams might even be calling the Twins already. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

My read is that Royce Lewis showed enough in his short stint with the Twins to put to rest any doubts about his status as a top ten prospect. I would think Lewis would fetch the best available pitcher and teams might even be calling the Twins already. 

Sell high.

[a-wan]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Sell high.

And Jermaine Palacios is the starting SS next year after Correa opts out?

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, a-wan said:

And Jermaine Palacios is the starting SS next year after Correa opts out?

Possibly. He might be even if Lewis is still here.

How about Zander Bogearts?

[heresthething]

The problem is we need at least two quality BP arms, one I could see them pulling off but more than that is gonna get really expensive in trade capital.  The bigger issue with this FO is they don't like to spend on the bullpen and appear to have little capability to correctly judge what they do acquire.  Seems there are always lots of posts in the off season about not spending too much on BP arms because we should be able to pick them up without investing too much.  Unfortunately it never/rarely seems to work out for us.  

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Possibly. He might be even if Lewis is still here.

How about Zander Bogearts?

How about extending Correa? Honestly, that’s what I’d be doing and shopping Lewis for good pitching, in whatever package I could. And keep Palacios as a backup. I think Palacios is a far better SS.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Availability, for one thing. Teams who are actively competing or are expecting to compete in the immediate future are not going to be trading top tier starters.

• Frankie Montas - 1.5yrs (Arb 2) $5MM
• Sandy Alcantara - 4.5/5.5yrs and $56/77MM
• Pablo Lopez - 2.5yrs (Arb 1) $2.5MM

These are probably the best targets as Oakland and Miami are a mess.

I think Miami would be willing to move both Alcantara and Lopez, but Alcantara would be the more expensive. Oakland likely wants a haul similar to what the Twins got for Berrios.

• Frankie Montas = Balazovic & Larnach
• Sandy Alcantara = Lewis, Woods-Richardson, Miranda, Steer
• Pablo Lopez = Lewis, Winder, Steer

 

 

As LA Vikes Fan pointed out, none of these guys makes the Twins a true contender this year.  Losing Larnach and Lewis would completely negate the gain for 23/24 and then a huge setback for 25-27.   That's why they will keep all of these guys that are crucial to sustained success.  They easily have the payroll room to land Musgrove / Taillon or Rodon next year.  Syndergaard or Nola as consolation prizes if they can't land Musgrove / Taillon or Rodon.  Then, they have the equivalent or better SP plus these key young players.

I would much prefer them to use some of the next tier prospects to land a couple RPs with more than 1 year of control.  That would probably have more value this year and retain the young players we need to reach the next level.  Those young players also enable the team to spend on free agents and add without subtracting.

[bean5302]

49 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Balazovic and Larnach is a lesser package than SWR and Martin. Oakland is going to get/want top prospects not on the 40 man. They'd probably pick up the phone if the package starts with Lewis, even though he takes up a 40 man spot. I could see Oakland coveting Noah Miller. 

If you say so. Baseballtradevalues graded Martin + Woods-Richardson at $64MM. Larnach and Balazovic grade at $60MM. Pretty close if you ask me.

I'm not in discussions with Billy Beane at the moment so I can't say whether or not he'd poo-poo 5/6 years of team control in favor of a mid-rank low minors prospect like Noah Miller, but I'd be inclined to expect high minors players and rookies with MLB stats are more valuable to every team in baseball. It's my opinion there is nothing more valuable than players who are MLB ready or just getting their feet wet with 5+ years of cheap team control left.

[CRF]

I'd be real hesitant to deal Lewis. He's going to be a stud. I'd love to keep CC long term...he's got immense value beyond his playing skills, but the reality is, he's probably only here for one season. In that case, Lewis would more than likely be the SS. Or maybe he slots in at 3rd, if someone else proves to be the SS. Palacios? Maybe. It would have to be one hell of a trade for me to want to lose Lewis. No doubt we need some arms though.

[In My La Z boy]

I do not understand the logic of signing Correa if we aren't going to go all in THIS year. Going all in means trading someone painful like Lewis. I would be more inclined to not do that. In fact, I would deal Correa. There are 5 teams on his trade list. I move him, and stick with and build up the young pitchers for next year. We are way more than 1 stud starter away from the promised land in 2022. Now, I probably don't move Correa until I am convinced he won't sign here long term, so I am having those conversations now.

Don't really understand the Correa signing if we don't go for broke THIS year?

[Steve71]

In general terms, I would love to see the Twins trade hitting for pitching.

Marlins are loaded with quality pitching prospects, highlighted by Meyer and Sanchez.

I would look to trade some grouping of Kiriloff, Steer, Wallner, etc., for their pitching.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If you say so. Baseballtradevalues graded Martin + Woods-Richardson at $64MM. Larnach and Balazovic grade at $60MM. Pretty close if you ask me.

I'm not in discussions with Billy Beane at the moment so I can't say whether or not he'd poo-poo 5/6 years of team control in favor of a mid-rank low minors prospect like Noah Miller, but I'd be inclined to expect high minors players and rookies with MLB stats are more valuable to every team in baseball. It's my opinion there is nothing more valuable than players who are MLB ready or just getting their feet wet with 5+ years of cheap team control left.

Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have valued assets in the way you describe.  They happen to be by far the most successful among small and mid-market franchises over the past 20 years so I would say you are on to something.   Trading multiple upper tier prospects for a year and a half control is a good way to be better for a short period and bad for a long period.

[Mike Sixel]

Not getting anything for Lewis.....

While I agree that trading top prospects for short term players is not a good strategy to do over and over, there are a lot of teams doing the opposite that are never good. As for Cleveland, they've not exactly lit it up lately..... And Oakland has been good, but not great. Only Tampa has really been able to pull this off, somehow. Only one team has really succeeded at this, despite more than half the league trying. 

I'm for one of the top two guys, but I am also aware that could be a mistake. I put the odds of the twins signing a top starter near zero, ever, with this front office. I think they'll trade for them.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Availability, for one thing. Teams who are actively competing or are expecting to compete in the immediate future are not going to be trading top tier starters.

• Frankie Montas - 1.5yrs (Arb 2) $5MM
• Sandy Alcantara - 4.5/5.5yrs and $56/77MM
• Pablo Lopez - 2.5yrs (Arb 1) $2.5MM

These are probably the best targets as Oakland and Miami are a mess.

I think Miami would be willing to move both Alcantara and Lopez, but Alcantara would be the more expensive. Oakland likely wants a haul similar to what the Twins got for Berrios.

• Frankie Montas = Balazovic & Larnach
• Sandy Alcantara = Lewis, Woods-Richardson, Miranda, Steer
• Pablo Lopez = Lewis, Winder, Steer

 

 

I would love Alcantara, but I think the cost might be even higher than you suggest.

Based on the Trade Simulator

Alcantara (82.1), Lewis (33.2) , Miranda (16.5), SWR (5.4), Steer(3.3)

That is 82.1 to 58.4 before Lewis's injury, so I think it would take Larnach (46.4) in place of Steer. Alcantara is a unicorn, a great pitcher with a tone of time left, that doesn't come cheap.

Imagine what the Twins would want for Ryan.

[USAFChief]

Outside of a couple mega-spenders, It's very difficult, dang near impossible in fact, to predict which teams will be good a month prior to opening day, much less the following year or later. 

Do your best to assemble minor league talent and develop it, sure.

But when you have any chance of winning, go for it. Holding onto decent prospects because you may need them in 2023, much less 2924 or later, just doesn't make much sense. Most of them won't be who you hope they'll be. Or maybe a couple are, but your team isnt any good.  Meantime, you've handicapped yourself when you had a chance.

I don't think you trade mega prospects, at least not lightly. Acuna Jr. Griffey Jr

 But we don't currently have anybody like that.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Sell high.

welp

[DocBauer]

In 2019 the Twins traded Jaylin Davis and Lewin Diaz and a couple low level fliers for Sam Dyson and Sergio Romero and Vallimont. It cost them a single top 30 prospect and a couple of fliers for a couple proven, veteran RP. Forget that Dyson ended up hurt and a not so good guy, Romero actually helped and helped a lot. If Dyson was healthy, the pen would have been that much better.

Has baseball and potential trades changed so much in the past 3yrs that the Twins can't bring in a couple of solid, quality, proven BP arms similar to 2019 that would cost top prospects? 

Despite valid debates about consistency offensively....something I bet most teams have issues with...a healthy Twins lineup is not an issue. A healthy Kirilloff and Garlick will only help, though there would be a roster crunch.. With a healthy Gray, Ryan, Ober, Archer, and Winder, Bundy as a wild card "helper", the rotation is pretty strong. Yes, we can pine for the classic ACE that only a few teams truly have, but that's a nice rotation that can WIN. 

There are some solid pieces in our pen. Duran is a STUD but he would be better as a 1IP pitcher to get through the entire 2022 season. Jax shows real promise. So does Moran. Thielbar still looks good after a few bad early season games. Pagan is questionable, but has velocity and his new splitter has looked good at times. I like him as a middle guy who could set up. But unless a couple of the guys they keep rotating through suddenly step up and prove something...and I'm hopeful but realistic...the #1 thing this team needs is AT LEAST one quality BP arm. It would be better to add TWO.

Reflect back to 2019, and forget Alcala will be back in 2022, if the Twins add another Dyson and Romero for a handful of 20-30ish prospects...which is equivalent or higher than 2019....the pen could be outstanding to finish 2022 and really solidify the pen for the rest of the season

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not getting anything for Lewis.....

While I agree that trading top prospects for short term players is not a good strategy to do over and over, there are a lot of teams doing the opposite that are never good. As for Cleveland, they've not exactly lit it up lately..... And Oakland has been good, but not great. Only Tampa has really been able to pull this off, somehow. Only one team has really succeeded at this, despite more than half the league trying. 

I'm for one of the top two guys, but I am also aware that could be a mistake. I put the odds of the twins signing a top starter near zero, ever, with this front office. I think they'll trade for them.

It makes absolutely no sense to judge long-term strategy in the context of "they've not exactly lit it up lately".  Fans are obsessively short-sighted which is why they are at odds with the FO over these strategies.  The facts are listed below measured in number of 90 win seasons since 2000.  Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have been by far the most successful.  The history is very telling if you are willing to accept the facts which is not exactly consistent with fanaticism.

 Oakland    10
Indians    9
Rays    8
Twins    6
Dbacks    4
Brewers    4
Mariners    4
Reds    3
Orioles    2
Pirates    2
Rockies    1
Marlins    1
Padres    1
Royals    1

[beterday]

In my opinion the Yankees series showed me how far the Twins are from a really solid team.  I also think there is a reasonable chance that the Twins resign Correa for next year.  I believe that the only way a 125 million team can compete with the 200+ million is by "hitting" on a couple, at least one, trade like the Joe Ryan one, which make Correa as a trade piece very valuable, as well.  Can't see getting much for Lewis now that he is injured again (same knee, I'm assuming), and we need Larnach and Kiriloff long term to stay enjoyable.  Speaking of enjoyable, maybe that is what I'm looking for; very frustrating to see "the big boys" (Yankees/Dodgers) play a level of baseball we can't approach, but am watching all the games again this year and feeling the excitement of the Twins being a good team.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I see the Diamondbacks boxscore yesterday had Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy combining to get the win and a save.  The Dbacks are going nowhere.  These are the types of arms i think we should be targeting.  

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

It makes absolutely no sense to judge long-term strategy in the context of "they've not exactly lit it up lately".  Fans are obsessively short-sighted which is why they are at odds with the FO over these strategies.  The facts are listed below measured in number of 90 win seasons since 2000.  Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have been by far the most successful.  The history is very telling if you are willing to accept the facts which is not exactly consistent with fanaticism.

 Oakland    10
Indians    9
Rays    8
Twins    6
Dbacks    4
Brewers    4
Mariners    4
Reds    3
Orioles    2
Pirates    2
Rockies    1
Marlins    1
Padres    1
Royals    1

Oakland, Cleveland and Tampa have combined for two (2) World Series appearances in that time, with zero (0) championships. Add the Twins (#4 on your list), and...those numbers don't change, as we're all painfully aware.

Maybe they should have gone for it more often. What they're doing ain't working, in my estimation.

Hell, just using "90 won seasons" you've combined to list fourteen (14!) teams, nearly half of MLB, and they've put up only a combined fiftysix (56!) 90 win seasons in over 20 years. That's out of a possible two hundred ninety four (294) for those 14 teams. That's a 19 percent success rate, for a relatively low bar such as a 90 win sesson.

 

 

[bunsen82]

54 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Oakland, Cleveland and Tampa have combined for two (2) World Series appearances in that time, with zero (0) championships. Add the Twins (#4 on your list), and...those numbers don't change, as we're all painfully aware.

Maybe they should have gone for it more often. What they're doing ain't working, in my estimation.

Hell, just using "90 won seasons" you've combined to list fourteen (14!) teams, nearly half of MLB, and they've put up only a combined fiftysix (56!) 90 win seasons in over 20 years. That's out of a possible two hundred ninety four (294) for those 14 teams. That's a 19 percent success rate, for a relatively low bar such as a 90 win sesson.

 

 

You mean teams that have lower budgets generally aren’t as competitive as the highest salary teams? That is some high level sleuthing.  I think we should be shooting for budgets similar to the Cardinals who have won some championships. You need to manage your salary and prospects.   

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

You mean teams that have lower budgets generally aren’t as competitive as the highest salary teams? That is some high level sleuthing.  

All the more reason to go for it when you ARE. Continually implementing a five year plan every winter is folly, which is what we're discussing. 

BTW you'll get no argument from me that the Twins can and should be spending more. And they should be much less concerned about 2025 and more concerned about 2022.

[TopGunn#22]

There is no way to "read the minds" of our own FO much less the minds of other teams FO's.  You can use MLB Trade Values to "create" a trade but it's all just speculation (but still fun to plot anyway).  

I believe the Twins SHOULD make a deal and spend some of that prospect capital not just for this season but to build beyond this season.  Any deal for a Montas or Luis Castillo needs to be made with a commitment to sign Montas/Castillo to a fair,  long term (5 years or so) contract upon making the trade.  

That said, here are two deals that would help the Twins this year and beyond:

Twins Get:  Montas 37.00 and AJ Puk .50    

A's Get:  Ober  15.8, Miranda 16.50  Steer  3.30  Wallner  3.00 and Strotman 1.50   The Trade favors Oakland 40.10 to 37.50.

The Twins will need to over pay to win the bidding war for a Montas caliber pitcher.  Oakland gets a SP, 1B/3B, 2B/3B, OF and RP at various stages of providing immediate talent to their major league roster and future talent.  Steer for example, is vastly under-valued at 3.30 right now in my opinion.  He's tearing up AA and AAA.  He's ready for a promotion.  Would the A's see it the same way ?  Hard to say.  But Montas steps into the #1 slot and Puk provides another lefty in the pen.

Trade #2

Twins Get:  Jose Lopez RP Baltimore .80 and Carmona 1.10 (a low level, somewhat low ceiling minor league 3B)

Orioles Get:  Cavaco 3B 2.40    The Orioles win this trade 2.40 to 1.9.  I actually think Lopez is undervalued as I think he's found a home as the Orioles closer and his stuff plays well at the back end.  Frankly, I'd make this trade even more one-sided and remove Carmona if I had to.  Lopez gives the Twins another option to close on days Duran can't and a good 8th inning option as well.  It pushes everybody but Duran back one slot.  Baltimore get a high upside guy who may benefit from a change of scenery.  Just the type of trade Baltimore needs to make.  

The trades may be laughable to some.  But they work on the MLB trade Simulator and there is at least "some" logic for either side to consider pulling the trigger.