Is Austin Martin Minnesota’s Best Trade Chip?

[Cody Christie]

Even with a recent rough patch, the Twins are in the driver’s seat of the AL Central. Baseball’s upcoming trade deadline can be exciting, especially if the Twins decide to go all-in on the 2022 season.

 

Austin Martin is only two years removed from being the fifth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he has already been part of one blockbuster trade. MLB.com identified one trade chip from every MLB team, and the article names Martin as a piece Minnesota may be willing to deal to help the 2022 team. Questions can swirl about a player if they are included in multiple trades before reaching the big-league level. How good can the player be if a team doesn’t want to keep them in the organization? 

Early returns are mixed when it comes to last summer’s trade that included Jose Berrios sent to Toronto for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. This season, Berrios is off to a rough start, even with his dominating performance against the Twins last weekend. In 11 starts, he has a 74 ERA+ and his lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season. Toronto extended Berrios through the 2028 season, so they hope he can get back on track. 

Woods-Richardson has been part of two blockbuster deals as he joined the Blue Jays organization from the Mets as part of the Marcus Stroman trade. He is off to a strong start as he repeats the Double-A level. Minnesota wasn’t scared away by a player that had already been part of a big trade, and the team is seeing the benefits. Now, the Twins might be hoping a team is interested in acquiring a different top-100 prospect that has already been traded once.

Martin’s stock has declined since being drafted. He was a consensus top-25 prospect entering the 2021 season, and most national outlets dropped him to the second half of their top-100 prospects entering the 2022 season. Now, he has dropped even further as he hasn’t shown the power he showcased as an amateur and has no clear defensive home. There’s still hope for him to improve, especially since he is 23-years-old and has played fewer than 150 professional games. 

Entering the 2022 season, the Twins took a unique approach to build the team’s rotation. Instead of paying big money for a free agent arm, the team decided to rely on younger pitchers and prospects to complete the rotation. The team has seven pitchers on the injured list, so rotational depth might be something the team wants to address before the trade deadline. One interesting name to consider is a former Twins pitcher having a breakout season for the Rangers. 

Minnesota’s approach to the upcoming trade deadline will be interesting to follow. Will the front office be willing to go all-in with a team that has evident flaws? There may also be a lack of urgency at the deadline because the AL Central is arguably baseball’s worst division. Minnesota has a chance to coast to a division title, but that can’t be the ultimate goal. The front office is well aware of the team’s losing streak in October, but teams can take on a very different look from now until the start of the playoffs.

Do you think that Austin Martin is the team’s best trade chip? Should the team try and add to the rotation before the deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

 

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[mickster]

I do believe he is one that will need to be in a deal.   Royce Lewis made himself almost untouchable, and without Correa secured beyond this year Lewis has to stay.   We will need to overpay, but need to be careful as one SP won't get us to the end goal.   However, a controllable top third of the order pitcher will come with a price of Martin+.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I love Martin's flexibility densively (which I value a lot), hitting & OBP plus I believe his power could eventually come around. But now since we are pretty set in the OF with Buxton, Celestino and Gordon in CF, Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino and Gordon at the corners. SS we have Correa, Lewis, Palacios and Gordon with a plethora of options at 2B & 3B. So that's make Martin very available.

We have a very depleted rotation and much needed high end SP. We have also a self inflicted need for a extra closer and starting catcher. Where Martin would be maybe a valuable and most expendable trading piece.

[Deadfan]

...You better not be referring to Kyle Gibson.

 

 

[Dman]

Maybe other teams view him differently but he just doesn't look like an elite hitter to me right now.  He is the epitome of a contact hitter and only has a 12% K rate and just a few more K's than walks so he is getting the bat to the ball and he can take a walk.  The problem is his slugging is .317 and he doesn't seem to be making hard contact.  I also think he is being shifted more so there are issues to work through.  I think he is a good hitter but I just don't see how he can be considered elite and in the top 100 right now.

That could change with a bit of a hot streak with some extra base hits but right now today I have to believe his value is too low for the Twins to consider trading him.  He will likely bounce back from what ever his issues are so I wouldn't sell low unless a team is willing to give us full value. 

That being said Martin does seems like the odd man out right now with Arraez in super hot mode.  Spencer Steer showing great plate discipline and power and the Twins with no shortage of 2nd base type players Martin doesn't seem to fit real well at the moment.  The one Skill Martin does have over most players in the system is his ability to steal bases but it isn't an overly valued skill these days.  Still there is no hurry to move Martin either as he doesn't need be added to the 40 until next year.

Will have to wait and see a bit more I think but he is a player that could be dealt for the right package.

[bunsen82]

If you want to sell a prospect here the ones with highest values-

Highest-Lewis

Next level - Steer, Martin, Miranda,  Woods Richardson.   Maybe Rodriguez and Miller,  Balazavic (maybe trending to lower level)

Mid level - Varland, Wallner, Raya, Julien, Hajjar, Festa, Headrick, Soulerie, Povich, Isola, Palacios, Enlow, Strand (possibly moving up) , Cavaco (buy Low Candidate), Sabato and Rosario

There are several more prospects that other organizations may like for depth or for projection on their ability especially A ball pitchers.   

 

[Trov]

I would not say he is the best trade chip, as you noted his prospect ranking is dropping, hard to say he is a top trade chip if his value is dropping.  Now, if the question was is he most likely to be traded if one is made, I would agree with that.  I do like him overall, and the throwing errors would hopefully be something he can work on.  He has great range and speed but with Lewis looking like he will hopefully hold down SS, or at least better than Martin would, and Buck locked up long term in CF, Martin is not knocking on the door and we could send him off and not be hurting because of it.

Based on his dropping value not sure he nets what people would be hoping though. Our best trade chips would be Buck, Correa, Lewis, or Ryan in my opinion, but you do not trade any of them if you are trying to win this year or anytime soon. 

[bean5302]

Martin's value has tanked pretty hard by this point. Martin continues to show virtually no power so his plate value is quite limited and his inability to field are well documented. That's not to say he won't put it together, but he's not exactly young at this point. Age 23 at AA is expected, even a little older than expected for a top prospect.

Scouts have universally panned Martin's ability to cover SS and CF. Those were always pie in the sky positions for Martin who supposedly lacks the outright speed to cover center and lacks the arm to cover SS. Ultimately, he's projected as a 2B candidate because of the arm.

I'm going to assume "best" in this article is not synonymous with "highest value." I think the best trade chip is Luis Arraez or Jorge Polanco. Maybe Trevor Larnach if opposing teams buy the fast start again this year or Max Kepler. Positions where we have some depth or log-jamming in effect and players with a lot of surplus value.

[h2oface]

Massive hype and little results. By our FO and TD staff. Just find a team that is also more enamored by rankings than results and you got a deal to make asap. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Unless we're going to acquire a current starting pitcher with a winning record, a low ERA, goes at least 7 innings every time he takes the mound, has no injury issues, has at least two years remaining on his current contract after this season, is in his lower 30's, has been vaccinated, has never been sued for sexual harassment, helps grandmotherly types across the street, has an IQ over 120 on the Stanford-Benet and prefers classic country over rap I'd say step away from the trade table and keep our prospects.

Better the devil we know...

Just ask the Cleveland Browns.

[In My La Z boy]

He is the best trade chip from our perspective because we wouldn't miss him. Our best trade chip is the guy we would miss the most. It is likely our potential trade partner wants high upside youth, unless we pull a deal with a contender. 

I don't have high hopes for this front office to go for it this year. The deals we've made have been on both sides of the "appearing to want to compete scale".

The Gray trade says we want to win now. Correa signing says win now. Garver trade says, hold on we need a shortstop and here is our best catcher. Yankees trade says here is our biggest signing ever 3Bman, please take him off our hands, oh and give us that catcher you don't want. Rogers trade says we want controllable players going beyond 2022 and we'll figure out the back end of the bullpen later. Seems we are trying to do both things simultaneously, win now, and build for the future. Front office of the year if they pull that one off. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:I'm going to assume "best" in this article is not synonymous with "highest value." I think the best trade chip is Luis Arraez or Jorge Polanco. Maybe Trevor Larnach if opposing teams buy the fast start again this year or Max Kepler. Positions where we have some depth or log-jamming in effect and players with a lot of surplus value.

That’s where my mind went as well! My list would be:

1) Lewis, 2) Arraez, 3) Polanco, 4) Correa, 5) Larnach

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That’s where my mind went as well! My list would be:

1) Lewis, 2) Arraez, 3) Polanco, 4) Correa, 5) Larnach

Duran would net a lot. Maybe more than anyone. Dominant relievers are in high demand, with good reason. 

Not that I think the Twins should trade him.

[Major League Ready]

It was a very short while ago that many were calling for Lewis and/or Larnach to be traded.  I don't see the point in selling low.  He is not bringing any form of impact player now or in the near future.  That would require Duran / Lewis / Ryan / Larnach / Miranda / Kirilloff type assets.  Maybe we could throw in Brian Duensing.   ?

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, Deadfan said:

...You better not be referring to Kyle Gibson.

 

 

He's a FA at the end of this year! We could sign him for only money! For real though, he's been basically the equivalent of Chris Archer this year. Not terrible, and useful to eat innings and keep you in games, but not a needle mover or a guy you want starting a playoff game. 

[wsnydes]

Perhaps he is, but he's kind of a sell low candidate right now too.  

I'd much rather deal him than Lewis, I can tell you that.

[Unwinder]

He's not the most valuable trade chip, he's just the best balance between value and expendability.

[se7799]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It was a very short while ago that many were calling for Lewis and/or Larnach to be traded.  I don't see the point in selling low.  He is not bringing any form of impact player now or in the near future.  That would require Duran / Lewis / Ryan / Larnach / Miranda / Kirilloff type assets.  Maybe we could throw in Brian Duensing.   ?

Also many wanted Luis traded as well. Thank goodness our FO does not take advise from the forums.

[rwilfong86]

37 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Also many wanted Luis traded as well. Thank goodness our FO does not take advise from the forums.

If there is any players the Twins need to lock up long term it's Arraez.

[D.C Twins]

A team should not by high and sell low... so no... would not trade him right now.

[roger]

We would be selling low.  Will Martin become a star, don’t know but expect the Twins remain higher on him than most here.

Also will be surprised if they do as big of a deal as most h.ere want.  I like our starting staff,  assuming most get healthy... and stay healthy.  What I do think we need is one more solid late inning guy.  A rental may not be all that expensive a month from now.

[Stew]

Why don't we try something novel.  Trade martin and Richardson for a high end starter. I'm sure Oakland wanted one of those two players. Maybe we could trade Bundy as a throw in. Remember get quality vs. quantity.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I wouldn't trade Martin except as part of a package for Frankie Montas or someone of his level. Certainly not for a reliver or 3 month starter rental. there isn't a good reason to sell low on him yet. Not at 23 years old with less than 150 professional games in so far. 

By the way, trading for Martin Perez with Texas is not smart.  Good for him that his year has been good so far. Bad for us if we trade for his inevitable fall off.  I say we stick with what we have in the rotation unless Montas is available (or someone at his level). For the bullpen, trade for a veteran having a decent year but don't give up a top prospect and don't trade for a "name" reliever, those guys rarely work out long term. 

I say we run with what we have. Let's plant the seeds for next year now. Oh, and something we can all agree on, IL or DFA Duffy.  

[High heat]

I’m still high on Martin going forward.  This team isn’t one or 2 players away.  I’m still looking for a 2023 build.  I wouldn’t go and move him.  
 

buy low on a starting pitcher and we will need some serious bullpen arms but nothing that should cost a Martin. 
 

what do you think Kyle Hendricks would cost?

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Larnach and Martin for Montas?  

I love Larnach and think he's going to be a very good player for a long time.....but you've got to give up something to get something.  Kirilloff looks to be getting healthy, but I think teams would be scared to deal for him.  The question the FO will need to ask themselves is are you willing to spend the $$$$ to keep him when his contract is up.  If not, stand pat and try to acquire some bullpen help.

[The Mad King]

Unless they trade an outfielder already ahead of him, where's he going to play? It's either trade him or trade proven talent...

[ashbury]

53 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Larnach and Martin for Montas?  

I love Larnach and think he's going to be a very good player for a long time.....but you've got to give up something to get something.  Kirilloff looks to be getting healthy, but I think teams would be scared to deal for him.  The question the FO will need to ask themselves is are you willing to spend the $$$$ to keep him when his contract is up.  If not, stand pat and try to acquire some bullpen help.

Two position players for a starting pitcher of any stature?  Do teams make such trades anymore?  Pitching is the coin of the realm.

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I love Martin's flexibility densively (which I value a lot), hitting & OBP plus I believe his power could eventually come around. But now since we are pretty set in the OF with Buxton, Celestino and Gordon in CF, Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino and Gordon at the corners. SS we have Correa, Lewis, Palacios and Gordon with a plethora of options at 2B & 3B. So that's make Martin very available.

We have a very depleted rotation and much needed high end SP. We have also a self inflicted need for a extra closer and starting catcher. Where Martin would be maybe a valuable and most expendable trading piece.

Flexibility being code for minus defender at multiple positions. 

[Rosterman]

Do you think getting one veteran arm is going to win the division for Minnesota? Take us thru the playoffs? Whatever?

We still have a month-and-a-half, and then have to see what other teams want, and what we could offer accordingly. 

Austin is a man without a position. He shows no power for either corner spot in the outfield. He is questionable as a fulltime shortstop or cenetrfielder. If the Twins would be placing Steer and others ahead of Martin for the infield, why wouldn't a team go after those guys (still in the minors) instead...in a trade package.

What hurts is that folks like Sands and Balazovic, that had prospect worth last season, have absically eroded to nothing. Makes you think hard about Canterino, Enlow, Varland or any other names of possible up-and-coming arms and should they be swapped for a vet, or do we keep fingers crossed.

The Twins have at least anothre season, with martin able to play that season at AAA ball, that could actually make him more valuable...an aging first rounder that a team could control until his 30th year. That alone is worth a gamble...next year before the trade deadline.

And by then we will have a better idea of long-range possibilities for Larnach and Kirilloff, the status of Polanco and Kepler, if Wallner is a prospect, and more.......

I don't think the Twins for this trade deadline are in a position to overpay, mostly because of assets, for a front-line rotation arm.

[mikelink45]

I have questioned his prospect ranking since we got him.  No position and no outstanding attributes at bat - his reputation has been built on his draft position.  I don't see him in the bigs for a while and every other team can see what he is doing so the value for a real asset SP is nil.  

If you want to move on someone who has stock rising it is Steer.  Strike now.  We do not have a place for him on the roster so get some value (unless we are ready to move Polanco and plug Steer in).