Is Pagan being unfairly attacked?

[Trov]

Recently TD had article about how Pagan, and all season people have been posting about him.  First, is he being unfairly attacked because he was part of the Rodgers trade?  I mean he did not ask to be in that trade, but people seem to be comparing the two.  More on that later.  Yes, early on he was walking way to many guys and walking the tight rope.  When you look at his per game break down, for some reason he has been terrible against Detroit, but against other teams his numbers are not too bad.  

Take out Detroit, which are all his blown saves or blown lead, one was in 8th so not a save, of 1 run leads.  He has given up 4 runs, 2 ER, but he did give up a HR in the game of 2 unearned, over 14.1 innings with 2 HR.  Against Detroit he has given up 4 runs, all earned, with 3 HR over 4.2 innings.  Of course we do count the Detroit games, but absent those his overall results have not been bad, as none of the runs he gave up in the other games affected the overall outcome really.  He did pick up the loss in the 7-2 loss against the dodgers back on April 12.  He gave up 1 run, just happened to be the one that got the loss. 

I would suggest that if he came to the Twins in a trade not involving Rodgers, or if he was just signed as a FA fans would be giving him a bit more of a break.  Since early May he has really cut down his walks.  Walking 1 in his last 11.1 innings. He has given up 11 hits over that period, for a WHIP of about 1.  Not terrible for a pen arm. All guys are going to blow saves, Hader just had his streak broken with to solo shots the other day.  

I am not specifically comparing the seasons of Rodgers and Pagan, but Rodgers did start off on fire, converting 17 of first 18 save chances, the one blow save he let in with 2 outs runners that were on when he came in so did not get credited for giving up any runs.  Over his last few outings he has blown 2 saves and picked up a loss in addition in a non save situation.  He also got a save in last outing while giving up 1 run. 

We have seen Rodger runs like that in the past, but I remember reading many articles and comments about how good Rodgers is and how it was just SSS and will bounce back, but Pagan has been getting the opposite treatment of how he will get blown up soon.  It is not fair to compare the seasons the two are having, and that is not what the point of this post is.  It is about the fact that I feel some have been harder on Pagan because he was involved in a trade for Rogers, who many felt he was better than what his numbers always suggested.  

I will admit, I am not happy when Pagan gets the 9th over Duran, but after noticing Detroit is the only team that has really hurt us when Pagan comes in, I am not as nervous.  Maybe Pagan will start blowing more saves, I hope not, but he seems to be doing just fine when pitching against any team not the Tigers.  Lets hope he stops getting games against them going forward. Also, this is not an attack on Rogers, he has been good, but just like he always did with us, he will blow saves and lose games.  If you actually compare game to game, Rogers has been involved in more losses than Pagan has.  In fairness Rogers has pitched in 7 more games, so more of a chance to do so.  However, for the people comparing the two and wishing we never made the trade, there is little evidence to think we would have any more wins if the trade never got made.   

[jorgenswest]

His ERA, FIP and xFIP have all been above 4 the last two years. This year the sample is small thus far but both his FIP and xFIP are worse than Duffey’s I think they are generally considered to be better predictors of future performance.

I don’t think he will perform worse than Duffey but I am clouded by the small sample of performance. I think the lack of confidence in Pagán is entirely because he hasn’t pitched well since 2019. Even in 2019 his LOB% was 94.8. This year it is 94.7. That really isn’t a skill. His career rate is near the league rate this year of 75. Can we really count on him to have an LOB% of 95% going forward?

[Trov]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

His ERA, FIP and xFIP have all been above 4 the last two years. This year the sample is small thus far but both his FIP and xFIP are worse than Duffey’s I think they are generally considered to be better predictors of future performance.

I don’t think he will perform worse than Duffey but I am clouded by the small sample of performance. I think the lack of confidence in Pagán is entirely because he hasn’t pitched well since 2019. Even in 2019 his LOB% was 94.8. This year it is 94.7. That really isn’t a skill. His career rate is near the league rate this year of 75. Can we really count on him to have an LOB% of 95% going forward?

The FIP for this year is a bit off because his walks were so high the first few games.  Also, FIP for a relief pitcher is not a great way to measure them.  If you give up a solo HR in a three run game but get the save, the FIP will jump off the charts, However, they still got the job done.  Look at Josh Hader, his FIP jumped from .99 to 2.28 when he gave up to solo shots the other day.  I am not comparing the two, I am just pointing out that FIP will change so much when you are doing 1 inning at a time.  

I am not saying Pagan is lights out or anything, and can we improve sure, but my point is he has for most part got the job done compared to what we could have.  It also shows how saves are way over blown.  Some guys get the saves, but do not shut the door when it is a multi run game.  It gets ya nervous and may not be sustainable.  Fernando Rodney was the perfect example of this.  Much of his career pretty high FIP and ERA, a couple of great years, but he still got a lot of saves, converting 80% life time.  Rivera, most likely best "closer" ever was 89%. Rodney would come in a 3 run lead give up 2 leaving 2 on.  Come in with 1 run lead leave bases loaded.  

I am not saying Pagan is amazing, by any stretch, but he has been effective enough so far.  Could that change quickly, sure. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

He kind of opened himself up for attacks by being against goodness and normalcy.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

...Rodgers trade...Rodgers...Rodgers...Rodgers...Rodger...Rodgers...


Rogers, he has been good, but just like he always did with us, he will blow saves and lose games.  If you actually compare game to game, Rogers has been involved in more losses than Pagan has.  In fairness Rogers has pitched in 7 more games, so more of a chance to do so.  However, for the people comparing the two and wishing we never made the trade, there is little evidence to think we would have any more wins if the trade never got made.   

Aaron Rodgers was not part of the trade to the best of my knowledge, but it seems like you figured that out mid-rant.

[Unwinder]

IMO it's not just the trade that has people so down on him, it's also because people perceive him as a "closer" who's not fit for that role.

[bean5302]

Pagan has a WHIP of 1.37 now and 1.44 before his last appearance. Taylor Rogers = 0.83.

To me, WHIP is the most under-valued stat for pitchers right now. It cuts through a ton of BS from modern stats, though there is a little BABIP luck which can mess with it in SSS.

WHIP and what it means to me:
0.00-0.99 = Dominant
1.00-1.09 = Great
1.10-1.19 = Good
1.20-1.29 = Average-ish
1.30-1.39 = Adequate
1.40-1.50 = Barely serviceable
1.51+ = Unplayable

Pagan is probably an adequate middle reliever. He's walking more guys than The Proclaimers in "I'm Gonna Be" but so far, he hasn't been visited by the scoreboard walks ghost.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

There is absolutely no comparison to Pagan and Duffey....NONE.  We may not always like Pagan's results but his "stuff" is really good.  I've seen the fastball consistently sitting 94-95 and as high as 97.  His split and slider are nasty pitches.  Duffey has NOTHING left and I just can't figure out how he is not at least sent down to try to figure it out (frankly, i think he's just done/wiped).  I'll take my chances 100/100 times with Pagan over Duffey.  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

The FIP for this year is a bit off because his walks were so high the first few games.  Also, FIP for a relief pitcher is not a great way to measure them.  If you give up a solo HR in a three run game but get the save, the FIP will jump off the charts, However, they still got the job done.  Look at Josh Hader, his FIP jumped from .99 to 2.28 when he gave up to solo shots the other day.  I am not comparing the two, I am just pointing out that FIP will change so much when you are doing 1 inning at a time.  

I am not saying Pagan is lights out or anything, and can we improve sure, but my point is he has for most part got the job done compared to what we could have.  It also shows how saves are way over blown.  Some guys get the saves, but do not shut the door when it is a multi run game.  It gets ya nervous and may not be sustainable.  Fernando Rodney was the perfect example of this.  Much of his career pretty high FIP and ERA, a couple of great years, but he still got a lot of saves, converting 80% life time.  Rivera, most likely best "closer" ever was 89%. Rodney would come in a 3 run lead give up 2 leaving 2 on.  Come in with 1 run lead leave bases loaded.  

I am not saying Pagan is amazing, by any stretch, but he has been effective enough so far.  Could that change quickly, sure. 

You are correct. FIP or xFIP are not a good way to measure how well they have done the job. Their purpose is to project forward and foreshadow how well they might do it in the future.