Mock Drafts Favor Hitters

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Slowly.

It may be just me - or probably the change in schedules - but it feels like it's been an especially long and slow-moving draft season. It also may be that the College World Series is almost here and our internal clocks tell us that means it's finally here.

Only it isn't.

What we have gotten to is a point where there are names that are more connected to the Twins than others. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it could. 

Take a look at the various mock drafts up to this point.

TWINS MOCK DRAFTS
Baseball America	Mayo	McDaniel	TwinsDaily	Law	Callis
Cam Collier 3B Chipola JC (5/26)	Gavin Cross OF Virginia Tech (5/18)	Jacob Berry RF LSU (6/1)	Cam Collier 3B Chipola JC (5/26)	Cole Young SS Pennsylvania HS (5/19)	Jace Jung 2B Texas Tech (5/11)
Jacob Berry 3B/1B LSU (4/1)	Jacob Berry 3B/OF LSU (4/27)
Chase DeLauter OF James Madison (2/10)

The name most-prominently connected to the Twins is LSU switch-hitter Jacob Berry. He doesn't have a defensive home and don't confuse the various positions listed as versatility... his value is 100% tied up in his bat. 

But a bat that is in play at pick #1 and rarely gets by the Twins at #8 is a bat that experts think will surely play, regardless of where he will stand defensively (or sit, potentially, in the dugout as a designated hitter). 

Another name with helium towards the Twins is Chipola JC 3B Cam Collier. Collier is about to make his debut in the wood-bat Cape Cod League as a 17-year old.  He's been taking parts in scrimmages and has been very impressive. It's entirely believable, at this point, that Collier could be both the Twins main target at #8 and gone well before they have the opportunity to select him. 

The most noteworthy draft news from the past week has been the return of Kumar Rocker. Rocker is originally best known for playing superhero in Vanderbilt's run to a national title in 2019. Then well-known for not signing with Mets last summer and not even getting an offer after initially agreeing to a $6 million signing bonus. 

But he's back now for the Tri-City ValleyCats of the Frontier League. He looked the part of a first-round pick, reaching 99 mph with his fastball and showing off his devastating slider. It certainly could have gone better as Rocker appeared to tire in his fourth inning, his command wavering enough to hit a batter before giving up a home run. But it also could have gone much, much worse. Rocker appears to be very much the guy we watched pitch for Vanderbilt. He should continue to throw regularly as he looks to answer the questions that have been asked of him over the last 12 months. 

JEREMY’S TOP 10 PROSPECTS

A few changes as we march forward into mid-June

1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)

2.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (previously: 4)

3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.)

4.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) (previously: 6)

5.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep (previously: 2)

6.) Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (previously: 7)

7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: 5) 

8.) Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama

9.) Jacob Berry, Hitter, LSU (previously: unranked)

10.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 

Dropped out: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 9)

MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS

Baseball America - v4.0 (5/26/22) the draft changed but the link stayed the same / v2.0 (4/1/22) /  v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 300 (4/27/22) / Staff Draft v.1.0 (4/20/22)

MLB.com - Mayo Mock Draft (5/18/22) / Callis Mock Draft (5/11/22) /  Mock Draft (4/27/22) / Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 150 (4/25/22)

The Athletic - Bowden Top 10 ( 6/1/22) / Law Mock Draft (5/19/22) /  Law Top 100 (5/5/22) / Law Top 30 (3/10/22)

ESPN - McDaniel Mock Draft (6/1/22) / Draft Rankings 2.0 (4/27/22) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) / Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+)

Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) 

Prospects Live - v2.0 (4/21/22) / v1.0 (1/4/22) 

Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22)

My MLB Draft (1/18/22)

 

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[Dman]

Hearing a couple of things surfing around the net. One it sounds like after the first 6 or seven players teams view a lot of the next tier as all fairly close and they might try to see who is willing to cut deals so they can spend on the more volatile high school pitchers in the 2nd round.

Also I think Callis mentioned the Twins might be on Neto a high contact bat.  Think Arraez, Miranda, type of player.  He could stick at short as he has the arm and actions but isn't real fast.  Might have to move to 2nd base but in this high strike out era having guys that get the bat to the ball is important and the Twins might be able to cut a deal with him as well.

I am trying to come around on Berry but another position less player high in the draft seems tough take at this point.  Still having a Switch hitting, power swinging first baseman DH could be an advantage if the bat remains elite all the way through.  

I still think a high school player would fit this team the best as they don't really need a fast moving bat IMO so Collier at this point looks like the one to possibly fall and if he does I would take him if I were the Twins.  I still like Cole Young but not sure if that is too early and if he would take a discount.

Lot's of ways the Twins can go will be interesting to see how the top 6 plays out and what is left for the Twins.

[prouster]

I tend to think it’s good to draft high quality college bats early, because they pan out at a higher rate. But man, I really hope they don’t take another DH in the first round. I’m hoping the Georgia Tech catcher falls in their lap. Otherwise I’d like to see them take one of the infielders with good hit tools. 

[nicksaviking]

Seems like the Twins are really crowding their system with near ready MLB players, I wouldn't be surprised if the strategy is to take a young HS project. Though I suppose 17-year-old JC players fit that bill too. They could maybe wait out Lesko too.

[MN_ExPat]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems like the Twins are really crowding their system with near ready MLB players, I wouldn't be surprised if the strategy is to take a young HS project. Though I suppose 17-year-old JC players fit that bill too. They could maybe wait out Lesko too.

I can almost guarantee if Lesko isn't selected in the 1st Round he's going to Vandy.

[MN_ExPat]

45 minutes ago, prouster said:

I tend to think it’s good to draft high quality college bats early, because they pan out at a higher rate. But man, I really hope they don’t take another DH in the first round. I’m hoping the Georgia Tech catcher falls in their lap. Otherwise I’d like to see them take one of the infielders with good hit tools. 

Watching GT play in the CWS regionals I came away impressed with Parada.  I personally wouldn't select him in the 1st round, but I do think he's a great player who has the toolset to make it to the show.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

Watching GT play in the CWS regionals I came away impressed with Parada.  I personally wouldn't select him in the 1st round, but I do think he's a great player who has the toolset to make it to the show.

I think the Twins would have a tough choice to make if Parada is still there at number 8.  That being said I don't think the Twins are as desperate at catcher as some people think.  Both Hamilton at AAA and Isola at AA have 300 batting averages, 400 OBP's and .900 OPS's.  That would be pretty hard to improve upon even for a top prospect.  I know those two were not high draft picks but they look pretty good right now and they are playing at the higher levels of the system.

Also the Twins spent big and bet big on Winkel last year paying him over slot at $500,000 I believe which means they view him as a talented two way catcher of the future and they have Camargo who K''s too much but hit's tons of HR's.  I don't think the cupboard is bare for them at catcher.  

Still Parada is an elite bat and you can never have too much catching depth so you never know but I think they will be looking at players with more versatility and there are options for Short and Center if they look a little bit down the board.  It is so hard to say how they see things though as I never saw the Cavaco signing coming so who knows.

[Tim]

Kind of fells like Cam Collier will be the guy they look to zone in on at this point

[roger]

If the catcher is a good hitter and top defensive catcher, I pray he falls and they take him.  I don’t know if any of the guys in the minors are future starters.  I do know that neither of the two starters should be starting for a top contender.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, prouster said:

I tend to think it’s good to draft high quality college bats early, because they pan out at a higher rate. But man, I really hope they don’t take another DH in the first round. I’m hoping the Georgia Tech catcher falls in their lap. Otherwise I’d like to see them take one of the infielders with good hit tools. 

I'm with you we need a future catcher. I'd like if the Twins could land Parada. In Jeremy's top 10 he fell from 5 to 7. I forget which team is right before us but hope they value a different player ahead of him.

[MN_ExPat]

20 hours ago, Dman said:

I think the Twins would have a tough choice to make if Parada is still there at number 8.  That being said I don't think the Twins are as desperate at catcher as some people think.  Both Hamilton at AAA and Isola at AA have 300 batting averages, 400 OBP's and .900 OPS's.  That would be pretty hard to improve upon even for a top prospect.  I know those two were not high draft picks but they look pretty good right now and they are playing at the higher levels of the system.

Also the Twins spent big and bet big on Winkel last year paying him over slot at $500,000 I believe which means they view him as a talented two way catcher of the future and they have Camargo who K''s too much but hit's tons of HR's.  I don't think the cupboard is bare for them at catcher.  

Still Parada is an elite bat and you can never have too much catching depth so you never know but I think they will be looking at players with more versatility and there are options for Short and Center if they look a little bit down the board.  It is so hard to say how they see things though as I never saw the Cavaco signing coming so who knows.

Well said.  I think this illustrates well that with a pick this high (#8), you pick the best player available regardless of perceived depth issues (plus like Dman, I don't believe that C depth is as bad as some people espouse).

As I said, I think Parada is a great player and I would totally root him on if selected by the Twins regardless of how I felt about the pick (just like Sabato and Cavaco... note, I am NOT saying they are the same type or caliber of player). 

In addition to the best player available idea, teams also have to factor in the signability of the player.  From the outside looking in (to me at least), this looms just as important.  What the player is willing to sign for can have a beneficial or extremely negative impact on a team's whole draft.

In the end, there are just way to many factors in this process for me, which makes me totally glad that I don't have to make those decisions . 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 6/9/2022 at 10:50 AM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

It certainly could have gone better as Rocker appeared to tire in his fourth inning

Seems exactly the type of pitcher the Twins like ?

[Major League Ready]

On 6/9/2022 at 1:09 PM, MN_ExPat said:

Watching GT play in the CWS regionals I came away impressed with Parada.  I personally wouldn't select him in the 1st round, but I do think he's a great player who has the toolset to make it to the show.

Who would be the pick if you got to make it?

[MN_ExPat]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Who would be the pick if you got to make it?