2022 Rule 5 Protection List & Trade Candidates

[Twinfan603]

The 40-man roster is already crowded and there will be a lot of tough decisions in the offseason to trim it down. With that being said, I count as many as 8 potential prospects who'll need to be added or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft in December (following this resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins)

-Spencer Steer (AAA)

-Matt Wallner (AA)

-Eduoard Julien (AA)

-Jair Camargo (AA)

-Matt Canterino (AA)

-Simeon Woods-Richardson (AA)

-Louie Varland (AA)

-Sawyer Gibson-Long (A+)

 

Now, Camargo, SGL, & even Varland might be seen as stretches, people who would probably not immediately get poached if left unprotected, but the other 5 most definitely need to be added. The question then, with trade season starting soon, is which of these guys can be cashed in trade-wise to land someone good and proactively trim the very crowded 40-man.

Is Kirilloff/Martin, Steer, Canterino, and Varland enough for Montas or someone similar?

[jorgenswest]

I think it will work itself out. It shouldn’t be the motivation to make a deal. They should be very motivated to acquire pitching regardless of the 40 man status for players they trade away. 
 

It is hard to make those deals in any case since the acquiring team will be aware of 40 man status also.  They will push to swap out a few for players that don’t have to be put on the 40.

[bunsen82]

Add in Headrick, Isola -   Mooney and Laweryson probably haven't shown enough.  I also think something will probably have to be done with Palacios as well.  

 I did this exercise a couple weeks ago and there are going to be several spots open for next year.  Look at our minors players we are currently protecting - Godoy, Henriquez, Enlow, Balazovic and Strotman.  Those can either be trade chips for a reliever or cut.  I really think Henriquez and Enlow are going to have minimal impact for the Twins compared to some of the others.  Just cut Strotman now.   

At the catcher position you will need at least 1 catcher added or resign Sanchez so nothing really gained there.   You can drop Godoy and add either Carmago or Isola whichever you prefer to keep at the end of the season.  That saves 1 position.  

1st base will be interesting,  but most likely we let Sano go and do not sign another first baseman and fill with internal canditates.   Opens 1 spot

SS- Most likely Correa is gone and we fill with Lewis.  Opens 1 spot.  

3rd base- Urshela - this is a tough one.  Ultimately with Miranda, Steer Available,  I think Urshela is let go.  Opens 1 spot

Pitchers - this is going to be lots of changes up and down and injured players let go.  Bundy will likely not be back.  Archer we have an option.  Maeda can fill spot for RP or SP.   Smith is on a 1 year contract and gone.  You can let go of Stashack, Duffey Coulumbe and Cotton,  but some players will be needed to fill those spots.  Stashack  may be one due to injury not picked up.  Ultimately I see 3 spots opened and see if Canterino and another couple pitcher can be relievers  or starters for the big league team. 

 

Even still we will have a couple prospects that we will be at risk of losing unless we trade away.    Montas isn't what we will be looking at.  For these OK prospects they may net you an ok or decent reliever.  I don't see us going after any decent SP unless has several years still on the contract.  

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Twinfan603 said:

The 40-man roster is already crowded and there will be a lot of tough decisions in the offseason to trim it down. With that being said, I count as many as 8 potential prospects who'll need to be added or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft in December (following this resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins)

-Spencer Steer (AAA)

-Matt Wallner (AA)

-Eduoard Julien (AA)

-Jair Camargo (AA)

-Matt Canterino (AA)

-Simeon Woods-Richardson (AA)

-Louie Varland (AA)

-Sawyer Gibson-Long (A+)

 

Now, Camargo, SGL, & even Varland might be seen as stretches, people who would probably not immediately get poached if left unprotected, but the other 5 most definitely need to be added. The question then, with trade season starting soon, is which of these guys can be cashed in trade-wise to land someone good and proactively trim the very crowded 40-man.

Is Kirilloff/Martin, Steer, Canterino, and Varland enough for Montas or someone similar?

Based on the MLB trade simulator, that isn't enough to for Montas (37) to 30.50 with Martin, 29.2 with Kirlloff.

To mee that seems high on the Twins side, not really worried all that much with Steer, Canterino and Varland, but giving up one of the other two turns me off.

 

[nicksaviking]

Camargo's poor K and BB numbers may keep him off of another team's roster, but the rest of those guys look like players other teams would drool over. It's possible every one of those pitchers outside of Gibson-Long will be placed on the 40 man and called up during this season. But Gibson-Long should also be in Wichita any minute now, he's looking fantastic as well.

But that 2019 draft class has lots of good looking players. Wouldn't the Twins also need to worry about Prato, Headrick and Legumina? I'd actually make sure to protect Alex Isola before Camargo.

[bunsen82]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Camargo's poor K and BB numbers may keep him off of another team's roster, but the rest of those guys look like players other teams would drool over. It's possible every one of those pitchers outside of Gibson-Long will be placed on the 40 man and called up during this season. But Gibson-Long should also be in Wichita any minute now, he's looking fantastic as well.

But that 2019 draft class has lots of good looking players. Wouldn't the Twins also need to worry about Prato, Headrick and Legumina? I'd actually make sure to protect Alex Isola before Camargo.

Holland could cause us problems as well if he continues to flash.  Prato I think is below the line,  but is close.   That 2019 class is deep.  

[Twinfan603]

I included Camargo since he is the youngest of the Twins notable catching prospects and showed real growth this year, so I wanted to account for more improvement. Teams tend to take fliers on catchers, so I agree at least 1 of him or Isola will need o be protected.

The 2019 draft class is a strong one and others could be considered, but these were the names that jumped out to me. The team can't protect 10 guys, so keeping an eye on eligible ones in the next couple months will be intriguing. If the FO is smart, they'll use some of them as trade-package enhancers to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

[Major League Ready]

There are a bunch of guys coming off the 40 or could be taken off.  Pitchers in alphabetical order.  Archer’s option is a mutual option so he will be gone.  Bundy is gone.  Cano is TBD.  Duffey is gone.  Henriquez can be taken off unless he really steps up the last half of the season.  Maeda could be traded.  Romero is likely gone.  Smith is gone.  Strotman can be taken off.  

Position Players – Godoy could be cut.  Sánchez is gone.  Correa will opt out.   Nick Gordon could be traded.  Sanó is gone.  Urshela could be traded at the deadline and replaced by Miranda or Steer.  Contreras can be taken off.  

That’s 16 to be removed and there are 48 on the 40 with 8 on the IL which leaves room for 8 at this moment.  It’s a good bet a couple will be traded at the deadline.  However, I don't see them trading any top 10 prospects unless the team looks like they can legitimately contend with the Yankees / Astros and Blue Jays.  They will follow Atlanta's example and add it they can do it by taking on salary and not giving up much in prospects.
 

[Twins reserve]

5 hours ago, Twinfan603 said:

The 40-man roster is already crowded and there will be a lot of tough decisions in the offseason to trim it down. With that being said, I count as many as 8 potential prospects who'll need to be added or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft in December (following this resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins)

-Spencer Steer (AAA)

-Matt Wallner (AA)

-Eduoard Julien (AA)

-Jair Camargo (AA)

-Matt Canterino (AA)

-Simeon Woods-Richardson (AA)

-Louie Varland (AA)

-Sawyer Gibson-Long (A+)

 Kirilloff/Martin, Steer, Canterino, and Varland 

Now, Camargo, SGL, & even Varland might be seen as stretches, people who would probably not immediately get poached if left unprotected, but the other 5 most definitely need to be added. The question then, with trade season starting soon, is which of these guys can be cashed in trade-wise to land someone good and proactively trim the very crowded 40-man.

Is Kirilloff/Martin, Steer, Canterino, and Varland enough for Montas or someone similar?

 

 

 Suggest parting w/Kirilloff/Martin, Gordon & Varland and more if needed to get Pirate's David Bednar and Henry Davis. 

[Twinfan603]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That’s 16 to be removed and there are 48 on the 40 with 8 on the IL which leaves room for 8 at this moment.  It’s a good bet a couple will be traded at the deadline.  However, I don't see them trading any top 10 prospects unless the team looks like they can legitimately contend with the Yankees / Astros and Blue Jays.  They will follow Atlanta's example and add it they can do it by taking on salary and not giving up much in prospects.

 

Seeing as this approach hasn't worked out before, it'd be a shame to see them do it again. Winning a bad AL Central and then getting smacked in the playoffs because you refused to even try to match up with the big boys is not a fruitful approach.

With Martin having a seriously worrying year and a lot of the pitching prospects carrying legit injury concerns, in addition to positional overlap between a lot of the position player sides, the team needs to cash in at least a few prospects or be left holding the bag.

Also, if they get down to 32 spots in the offseason, that may not be enough to protect everyone worthwhile and still have spots to bring in FAs. The FO has to be proactive about this.

[bunsen82]

I think the Twins need to manage their pipeline,  using some pieces that they likely won't retain for some bullpen help is very reasonable.  I don't think they need to use any of their top 10 to 15 prospects unless they deem the value to be well worth it,  and right now we have to give management the benefit of the doubt.  They have put all levels of baseball teams in a very good postion.  

[bunsen82]

21 hours ago, Twinfan603 said:

I included Camargo since he is the youngest of the Twins notable catching prospects and showed real growth this year, so I wanted to account for more improvement. Teams tend to take fliers on catchers, so I agree at least 1 of him or Isola will need o be protected.

The 2019 draft class is a strong one and others could be considered, but these were the names that jumped out to me. The team can't protect 10 guys, so keeping an eye on eligible ones in the next couple months will be intriguing. If the FO is smart, they'll use some of them as trade-package enhancers to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

Currently Camargo is in AA but will likely be going back once Isola is healthy.  Isola is only 1 year older.  I will say Camargo is showing a bit (more than I would have thought at trade time), however Isola is looking like a bat that can play in the big leagues.  Assuming he continues to do well.  He moves up to AAA next year,  is protected and is your emergency catcher if someone gets hurt.  

[Dman]

Pretty much agree with the OP except on Camargo.  He has a high K rate, poor plate discipline, and is not an elite defender.  He is a power over hit player that the Twins could afford to lose but unlikely that any other team would put such a player on their 40 Man. 

As protected I have

Canterino

SWR

SGL

Steer

Isola

Wallner

Headrick

Varland

Mooney

Schulfer

With Jullien on the fence.

That is 10 players 11 if you like Jullien that I feel like they should protect if they want to keep them. 

I left Palacios off mainly because the bat seems light right now to me.  If Correa moves on as expected maybe the Twins make room for him hard to say but I left him off for now. 

I like Mooney better than Legumina but the Twins seem to like Legumina better than Mooney.  I like that Mooney has good horizontal movement on his pitches kind of like Jax does.  Who doesn't like a pitcher with a 1.67 ERA good WHIP, K9 and who only has given up 19 hits in 32 innings.  He is more dominant than people realize.

There are guys I like in Gross, Legumina, Lawyerson, Grace and Funderburk but you can't keep them all and most of those guys just haven't performed well enough to this point to be on the 40 man IMO.

The Twins are going to have some tough decisions to make and I bet they lose guys in the rule V this year as they won't protect that many guys.

 

 

[bunsen82]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

Pretty much agree with the OP except on Camargo.  He has a high K rate, poor plate discipline, and is not an elite defender.  He is a power over hit player that the Twins could afford to lose but unlikely that any other team would put such a player on their 40 Man. 

As protected I have

Canterino

SWR

SGL

Steer

Isola

Wallner

Headrick

Varland

Mooney

Schulfer

With Jullien on the fence.

That is 10 players 11 if you like Jullien that I feel like they should protect if they want to keep them. 

I left Palacios off mainly because the bat seems light right now to me.  If Correa moves on as expected maybe the Twins make room for him hard to say but I left him off for now. 

I like Mooney better than Legumina but the Twins seem to like Legumina better than Mooney.  I like that Mooney has good horizontal movement on his pitches kind of like Jax does.  Who doesn't like a pitcher with a 1.67 ERA good WHIP, K9 and who only has given up 19 hits in 32 innings.  He is more dominant than people realize.

There are guys I like in Gross, Legumina, Lawyerson, Grace and Funderburk but you can't keep them all and most of those guys just haven't performed well enough to this point to be on the 40 man IMO.

The Twins are going to have some tough decisions to make and I bet they lose guys in the rule V this year as they won't protect that many guys.

 

 

This post is spot on.  We can likely protect 6-8 of the above mentioned list,  but we won't be able to protect all of them.  I am not sure who you are referencing with SGL -  thats a new shorthand for me (Nevermind,  Sawyer Gipson Long).  I agree with Julien being on the fence but personally I like him.  He likely has some decent trade value.  The only one that if he continues to hit towards .900 OPS the rest of the season will be Holland.  You start getting a SS with above average defense and strong bat and that is a valuable commodity.  Still only at high A but that is the only other individual that I see could really rise in the organizations eyes and value to other teams.  

Currently I wouldn't protect SGL, Mooney, and Julien, Holland.  I do think they find a spot for Palacios,  which means they are going at the high end of 9 players.  We will have to see.  There can still be injuries, poor performance and strong performance that can heavily influence decisions.  

[PatPfund]

Not really worried about it at this point. A quick look at the 40 man (including the 60 Day IL peeps who don't count now, but do for Rule 5) 14 easy calls on peeps less important to protect than the ones you mention (and as others said there are probably more).

Bundy, Coulombe, Dobnak, Duffey, Romero, Sands, Smith (Joe), Stashak, Strotman, Thielbar, Godoy or Sanchez, Correa, Sano, Urshela.

These folks are either bad, marginal, have serious injury performance issues, or their contracts do or may end before the Rule 5 Draft. Take Stashak as an example; guy just had labrum surgery (really long questionable recovery), and has a so-so history. Is someone really going to spend a pick on the hope he recovers 100% and a year down the road they'll have a middle reliever?

Another reason some won't be around is they'll be traded (or others not mentioned here will be). Others may play themselves onto (or off of) the list.

I wouldn't trade Kirilloff straight up for a season and a half of Montas, let alone adding others. One SP is not going to make this team a title threat; they need to get Gray, Ryan, Winder, and Ober healthy (or at least 3 of those) before any addition can help win it all. Bundy, Sands, and the dreaded TBA is all over their advance rotation notices, and filling one of those with Montas isn't worth a future all-star, because all it does is help win the division, not a playoff series.

Get a few of the other SP threats back and solid by July, then maybe you push in a major chip or two.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

 

Another reason some won't be around is they'll be traded (or others not mentioned here will be). Others may play themselves onto (or off of) the list.

 

Yeah it is a bit early to worry about Rule V.  I agree some of the guys on my protected list could move up a level and fall flat and work their way off the list.  Some of the guys at the MLB level could crater and be expendable.  Lot's of time left before we know who looks like they should be protected.  

Also need to remember position players are generally hard to take in Rule V with carrying the Max number of pitchers most of the time.  You can hide a pitcher in the pen but a position player needs to have value to replace players to give them rest days or in case of injury.  They have to stay on the 26 man so not easy to live with that unless they are half way decent or the team doesn't care about winning at all.

[Seth Stohs]

I'd have to think they'll want to add Jermaine Palacios to the 40-man roster, even if he doesn't get called back up in-season. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Pretty much agree with the OP except on Camargo.  He has a high K rate, poor plate discipline, and is not an elite defender.  He is a power over hit player that the Twins could afford to lose but unlikely that any other team would put such a player on their 40 Man. 

As protected I have

Canterino / SWR / SGL / Steer / Isola / Wallner / Headrick / Varland

Mooney

Schulfer

With Jullien on the fence.

That is 10 players 11 if you like Jullien that I feel like they should protect if they want to keep them. 

I left Palacios off mainly because the bat seems light right now to me.  If Correa moves on as expected maybe the Twins make room for him hard to say but I left him off for now. 

I like Mooney better than Legumina but the Twins seem to like Legumina better than Mooney.  I like that Mooney has good horizontal movement on his pitches kind of like Jax does.  Who doesn't like a pitcher with a 1.67 ERA good WHIP, K9 and who only has given up 19 hits in 32 innings.  He is more dominant than people realize.

There are guys I like in Gross, Legumina, Lawyerson, Grace and Funderburk but you can't keep them all and most of those guys just haven't performed well enough to this point to be on the 40 man IMO.

The Twins are going to have some tough decisions to make and I bet they lose guys in the rule V this year as they won't protect that many guys.

 

 

Totally agree on the 7 on the first line.  The last 3 are all borderline for me so I don't see much of any issue.  However, they could trade an INF among the group of Gordon / Steer / Kirilloff / Arraez and/or trade one of Wallner / Celestino.  Of course, they could also trade any of the 7 going on the 40 man at the end of the year or Kepler / Polanco.  I just don't see protecting any of those last 3 prospects necessitating the trade of any of these players.  This FO is opportunistic and the decision on whom to trade could be a product of the right opportunity more than wanting to trade any specific players.    

[Dman]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Totally agree on the 7 on the first line.  The last 3 are all borderline for me so I don't see much of any issue.  However, they could trade an INF among the group of Gordon / Steer / Kirilloff / Arraez and/or trade one of Wallner / Celestino.  Of course, they could also trade any of the 7 going on the 40 man at the end of the year or Kepler / Polanco.  I just don't see protecting any of those last 3 prospects necessitating the trade of any of these players.  This FO is opportunistic and the decision on whom to trade could be a product of the right opportunity more than wanting to trade any specific players.    

Agreed the relievers Mooney and Schulffer would need to excel to be added.  There is just getting to be too many 2nd\3rd base type bats.  I think they maybe dangle Jullien in trade but we will see.  As you noted other players could be traded by the deadline as well.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Dman said:

Agreed the relievers Mooney and Schulffer would need to excel to be added.  There is just getting to be too many 2nd\3rd base type bats.  I think they maybe dangle Jullien in trade but we will see.  As you noted other players could be traded by the deadline as well.

For me the takeaway is we have an opportunity that should be encouraging to us all.  There is not enough room for all those infielders.  Hopefully, they can use a couple of those assets to improve our pitching or perhaps catching.  However, someone pointed out that we our catching prospects are better than advertised here.  The numbers should we have some catchers that can hit.  I just have not seen them and therefore have little knowledge of their ability to stick behind the plate.  

I would not be shocked if it were Polanco because they could plug in Arraez immediately and then work Miranda / Steer into the infield over time.  I could also see selling relatively high on Kepler especially if he has a great 6 weeks between now and the deadline.  The combination of Buxton / Larnach / Celestino / Garlick and eventually Wallner would be just fine.   Although, I am not sure what to make of Wallner.  For the last month he has a 333 average with an OPS of 1100 but he strikes out 1/3 of the time. 

I would bet there the FO does some buying and selling at the deadline.  Something is going to happen!!!

[ashbury]

They will add some of the rule-5 eligible players to the 40.  Those that they don't, won't be worth much in trade, but they should try.  Convert them by trade into a handful of very young prospects - lottery tickets if you will - from a few bottom feeder teams that would like placeholder talent on their 40-man roster while their own pipeline develops.  I don't see how they convert this excess rule-5 talent into anything meaningful at the major-league level, though you never know until they ask.

Some team will get lucky and acquire a few Wins Above Replacement from us for a relative bargain which we will bemoan in hindsight, but that's okay because it was going to be given away for free anyway.  It's good to have a farm system brimming with talent that other teams covet - the key is talent evaluation so that our FO rarely makes a mistake and protects someone who turns out a lot worse than those they exposed to a draft.

Again, if your strategy is to develop from within, this situation is the norm.  I prefer it to trading away the better prospects, "because their trade value is higher."  Of course where there is a perceived talent logjam, second base for instance, exceptions can be made.  I see Steer as a good trade chip because where are you going to play him? - but maybe the Twins FO sees him as potentially an all-star (like his insane AAA numbers suggest) rather than a good solid starter, in which case someone else has to go.

[Rosterman]

Yes, somewhere in the offices of Target Field is a GIANT CHART that shows the status of all minor league players, and where they fall on the depth chart.

First, let's look at the Twins 40-man roster.

Come November, you could pretty much assume that ALL of these players could be gone, with a couple coming back if there IS roster room or on minor league contracts: Sanchez, Bundy, Cotton, Coulombe, Duffey, Megill, Romero, Smith, Strotman, Thielbar, Sano, Garlick, Contreras, Godoy, Palacios.

You can also remove Dobnak, but he would still remain your "property" if no other team claims him (and pays his longterm contract). Stashak could become a free agent, or remain a Twin and continue to collect some salary until he is deemed playable.

Protecting Rule 5 is always an issue. The Twins protected Sands and Enlow...one coming off arm issues, the other in transition and you feared someone would grab the guy and stash him on their own injured list just because you can. Sands is being given every opportunity to contribute in 2022. Enlow might get an advance to AAA, but doubtful.

We also have Balazovic and Henriquez. Balazovic was a top-notch prospect who lost a chunk last year and at the beginning of this year and has been disappointing. No doubt a low level team would grab him if exposed to waivers, either keeping him or trying to send him down for another season. Same with Henriquez, who was given to the Twins to be their 40-man roster issue. Maybe the Twins could've cut him and kept him before the season. Who knows. The sad thing is that both of these guys are currently dead weight. Are they valuiable as a trade throw-in (a team would have to keep them on their 40-man). Or do you take a chance that no one will claim them and you can keep them for another season in the minors by sending them thru waivers.

The Twins will also have options on keeping Archer and Urshela for 2023. Correa is an expensive option, and HE holds the key. And people seem to be down on Gordon for some reason. Gordon depends on who is our shrortstop or where does Arraez play, and what we ultimately do do with Gio.

There are at least 30 minor league players as of today that the Twins signed outside of their organization playing in AA/AAA and can literally walk at season's end. I doubt any will be 40-man roster spots...some might juggle into the mix still this season...but longterm...no.

And I may not be totally right, but the following names should be given consideration as they will be minor league free agents. Jair Camargo started young, Needs to be at AA with at least as many at bats as possible. But being a catcher, he can walk and find oppotunities almost anywhere. Do we keep him? Can he be that third catcher in 2023? The AAA Twins catchers of Hamilton and Banuelos will also be minor free agents. Palacios will be a MFA, as well Strotman and Jordon Gore. Except for the "promise" of Camargo, there are NO catchers worthy of 40-manning in the fall beyond Jeffers. The Twins will be looking somewhere for a major league backup and depth at AAA.

When you look at protecting for Rule 5, you MUST ask the magic question - "Would I Put This Guy On My 40-man Roster for the Year," followed by "Who Else Might Do This" and "Is My Depth Such That He Wouldn't Play Into Things If I Did and Just Take A Roster Space." 

In 2021, there wasn't room for Baddoo on the Twins 40-man. He was significantly behind a half-dozen folks in the depth chart. Honestly, you can all agree that coming off injuries and low-level play, would've been crazy for someone to grab him.

The Rule 5 candidates at St. Paul, right now, are Schulfer and Steer and a name no one mentions, Hellman. Steer and Hellman could replace Gordon? Or both be trade bait (like Gordon). So the Twins have depth here. Would you protect Hellman and Steer?

Schulfer is one of a few pitchers that may advance from Wichita in the coming months that would have to be given hard Rule 5 consideration. Keep in mind, keeping a pitcher at Wichita may limit the chances of the guy being grabbed. Once they hit at AAA roster and show some signs of competence, they are fair game. Although the Twins could very well have Sands, Enlow, Balazovic, Cano, Henriquez all on the AAA roster come the off-season and available for grabbing if non are claimed when waived off the 40-man. Outfielder Contrears would also be Rule 5 eligible if he doesn't get claimed and stays with the Twins.

If the Twins have a logjam in the outfield with Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Celestino and whomever else can play there right now, is there ANY reason to advance Wallner to St. Paul? Leave him at Wichita and hope others see that he is NOT quite ready, and buy another season of minor league play? Or do you add him? 

Other position players under considertion, but not leaping off the charts, are Chris Williams, Isola, Julien, Prato, Kennie Taylor, Ozoria and Kyle Schmidt. Well, we might be pushing, but could have our AAA catching staff here. But I don't see any of these guys making much of an AAA impact as 2022 winds down. Again, remind you that Camargo will be a minor league free agent, as well as Andrew Bechtold. Plus, Wander Javier will be able to leave the Twins on his own come seaon's end.

We talk about pitchers - Melvi Acosta and Bryan Sammons will be eligible minor league free agents. Sammons is a lefty, but hasn't shined.

AA pitchers of note are Legumina, Fundeburk, Gross, Canterino, Varland, Sisk, Woods-Richardson, Scherff. All but Legumina could be in St. Paul by mid-season if space permits. Thus they would seal their own fate on protection from the Rule 5. I would actually predict that six of the 8 would get major league time with the Twins in 2023. Not that all of the six would be on the 40-man this off-season.

A team is NOT going to grab a player if they can't keep them on the 40-man. Having the 26th helps. You can get that extra bullpen arm, or that rookie rotation arm that shows promise, but used out of the bullpen today (shades of Santana). A spare outfielder or infielder has to show more promise and skills than the vet journeyman, of which there are many (Twins used Riddle, Maggi, Win, Blankenhorn, Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave - just last season).

My issue, always, with 40-man construction is carrying players that contribute nothing this season, or just don't plain pan out (Vallimont, Garza, Thorpe, Rooker, Cave were all on the 40-man at some point since last season ended. Henriquez, Strotman. Enlow and Balazovic are being carried this year and contributing zlich.)

As management sits and looks at the wall, it is sad that players can be held back for protection with no roster spot perceived next year (possibly Wallner) or added because of fear of losing (Balazovic). But you also have to look at ALL the names mentioned above from our farm system and ask "who is going to make it and do they have trade value because of depth." Can I convince someone else of value, even though my own long-term plans may not have a place for them before they become Rule 5 or a minor league free agent?

And there are always a few players out there, Austin Martin for example, who won't get a 40-man spot, buy could conceivably show up in spring training and win a spot for the season's opener.

Player development. A whole 'nother game in the wacky world of baseball!

[RpR]

None of the of the rookies brought up this year have been showing the defensive skill( or endurance) needed to improve the team and bringing up a new batch of wishful thinking-crap shoot I doubt is on the mind the front office, they will stick with what they to as large a degree as possible.

They are losing fans at the ticket office and THAT is what drives the owners.

[Danchat]

How I see it:

Locks: 2B Steer, SS Palacios, 2B Julien, OF Wallner, SP Canterino, SP Woods-Richardson, SP Varland

Borderline: RP Schulfer, C Isola, RP Mooney, RP Headrick, RP Gipson-Long

I would definitely protect Isola and I'd consider the others, but that's 8+ prospects. I'd be fine moving on from a couple - I'd prefer to keep the starting pitcher prospects, and I'd be willing to move Steer (sell high) / Julien / Wallner.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

How I see it:

Locks: 2B Steer, SS Palacios, 2B Julien, OF Wallner, SP Canterino, SP Woods-Richardson, SP Varland

Borderline: RP Schulfer, C Isola, RP Mooney, RP Headrick, RP Gipson-Long

I have:

Locks: Steer, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Varland

Likely: Palacios (unless Correa stays), Headrick, Gipson-Long

Borderline: Schulfer, Mooney, Camargo, Isola, Julien (can only keep so many 2B), Wallner

Teams want pitching and thus I have a lot more pitchers higher on my list. Isola and Camargo would have to make the jump from AA to the pros and stay there for the entire 2023 season. Thus, I'm not sure anyone is willing to do that at the catcher position with neither one great at defense. Aren't we getting bigger bases in the pros next year and thus should see more guys stealing? Catchers throwing arms will be even more important.

[Danchat]

7 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Julien (can only keep so many 2B)

You could also consider Steer and Julien as utility players, and that's why I mentioned trades - there's not going to be room for everyone. 

[Ryan_K]

The 40 man is like your stock portfolio, some high risk bets, others proven dividend blue chips. We may look to trade some players and perhaps either get lottery ticket prospects, an established MLB player, or even trade for a compensation pick which moves our decision into the future by 4 years.

 

I have to say I am surprised how far people are down on Jordan B and Strowman, they may be working on pitches so they can have more success. I say let's cycle the RP rookies until the draft see if any become a Jax 2.0 and if not then trade them. We have time to evaluate, so let's do our homework (the front office) and go from there

[Rosterman]

9 minutes ago, Ryan_K said:

The 40 man is like your stock portfolio, some high risk bets, others proven dividend blue chips. We may look to trade some players and perhaps either get lottery ticket prospects, an established MLB player, or even trade for a compensation pick which moves our decision into the future by 4 years.

 

I have to say I am surprised how far people are down on Jordan B and Strowman, they may be working on pitches so they can have more success. I say let's cycle the RP rookies until the draft see if any become a Jax 2.0 and if not then trade them. We have time to evaluate, so let's do our homework (the front office) and go from there

I agree, in some ways. At some point, take a look at Strotman. He may excel in the majors. His numbers ARE a disater at AAA, but still...give the guy a chance rather than cycling thru arms that won't be a consideration for a 40-man spot in the off-season.

Hellman is also an infield choice. You have to ask, what do teams look for in the Rule 5.

If the Twins do decimate their bullpen in the off-season (no more Duffey, Smith, Cotton, Thielbar, Stashak, Coulombe, Romero, Megill), then who do they have as replacements? Schulfer is pitching well enough that he might get a chance this season. I would hope Scherff and Sisk also get a move to St. Paul and a Twins tryout, depending on standing placement. But you do want to look hard and long at rookie arms, even bullpen arms, as those are alays fair game in the Rule 5 (Clay a recent example).