Minnesota Twins 2012 Draft Retrospective: Correa vs. Buxton

[Cody Christie]

Ten years ago, the Twins had the second overall pick, which had the potential to alter the franchise’s future. Let’s look back at how that draft unfolded and explore if the Twins made the correct decision.

Major League Baseball’s 2022 Draft is scheduled to start on July 17, 2022. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, here is a look at some of the most important drafts in recent Twins history. 

The 2012 MLB Draft was an interesting time in Twins franchise history. Minnesota was coming off a very disappointing 2011 season where the team went from first to worst in the division. One benefit of having a poor record is receiving a high draft pick the following year. The Twins received the second overall pick and made five of the first 72 picks. At the top, there was no consensus number one pick, so this left some room for debate. 

Houston selected first overall and ended up with arguably the draft’s best player. Carlos Correa signed an under-slot value deal to join the Astros, and Houston was able to use that money on other picks later in the draft. Correa has been worth over 35 WAR for his career, which is over 12 WAR higher than any other player taken in that draft. His value also stretched into October, when he became a postseason legend. In retrospect, Houston made the correct pick at the top, but now Minnesota was on the clock. 

The Twins could go in multiple directions with the second pick, but the team needed to decide if they could be patient with a prep player or look to the college ranks for a more immediate impact. Some of the best college players available included Mike Zunino (10.2 WAR), Kevin Gausman (17.9 WAR), Mark Appel (0.0 WAR), and Kyler Zimmer (0.0 WAR). Minnesota turned their attention to rural Georgia and a dynamic five-tool prospect named Byron Buxton. 

Buxton was considered by many to be the top prospect in the draft. Minnesota paid him $6 million to sign, which was the biggest signing bonus handed out in that draft. Buxton’s 17.5 WAR ranks as the fifth-highest among 2012 first-round picks behind Correa, Corey Seager, Matt Olson, and Gausman. The Athletic’s Keith Law recently redrafted the 2012 first round, and he believes the Twins made the right choice because Buxton has “the best chance of anyone on this list to put up a 9-WAR season.” Buxton is a dynamic player when healthy, but injuries have been part of his career narrative. 

Minnesota’s next pick in 2012 was the 32nd overall selection, and the team took Jose Berrios out of high school in Puerto Rico. With supplemental picks, the first round included 60 picks that season and Berrios has accumulated the 11th highest WAR. Minnesota got some tremendous seasons from Berrios as he developed into one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers. Last year, the Twins dealt Berrios to the Blue Jays for two prospects, and the early returns may favor the Twins.

Besides the team’s picks at the top, the Twins made multiple picks later in the draft that have developed into solid big-league arms. Outside of Berrios, three other pitchers taken by the Twins have accumulated more than 1.5 WAR in their careers. Taylor Rogers was taken in the 11th round and has accumulated 6.7 WAR in his career. Tyler Duffey (1.7 WAR) and JT Chargois (1.6 WAR) have had ups and downs, but both have been key relievers for playoff teams. 

The 2012 Draft will be remembered for the players taken at the top, but that doesn’t tell the entire story for Minnesota. The organization’s first two picks are still impacting the team a decade after being drafted. Also, the club was able to identify players later in the draft that have been valuable relievers. Overall, it is one of the most successful drafts in recent memory.

Do you think the Twins made the right decision by taking Buxton? What do you remember about this draft? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Rosterman]

You also draft according to perceived need, especially after the first round when you might just grab "best available that you have a chance of signing."

What is so remarkable, looking at the draft's in hindsight, is the amount of players that don't pan out, that don't even make three years iun the system. 

And those that do hang on, and maybe get a cup of coffee or a few years in lesser roles.

The Twins are going to be unique this year, in how many rookies pass thru the gates of Target Field and how many years they dpo stick with the team. Looking ahead to 2023, we may have as many as 20 homegrown playes on the field.

Which could be remarkable if the Twins remain a winning team this season. You usually only invade the farm system if in major rebuild mode.

[bean5302]

Buxton was a good pick. It's not like the Twins, or anybody else, could have predicted how much Buxton would struggle with injuries. Buxton's physical talent level was absolutely elite and he's not only made his way to the big show, but provided a lot of value.

I wish the writer would have clarified, the values posted here are bWAR. In many cases, the difference between fWAR and bWAR can be substantial.

[Trov]

They for sure made the best pick in Buxton.  Gausman would have been the only one you could say looking back may have been the better pick, but even moving forward Buck still has the biggest impact when he his on the field.  Had we known he would have so many injury issues, maybe we go a different way, but not upset at all with what Buck has done.  We could have drafted the bust Appel. 

[IndianaTwin]

Another way to consider it is to look at WAR before they hit free agency, since that’s how long a drafting team can control a player. Seager and Gausman have reached free agency. Buxton is still playing his last controllable season, so he could easily pass the pre-FA total for those two. (By contrast, Olson still has more years before he would have reached FA.)

Different question — are Buxton/Berrios the best combo, other than Correa and whoever the Astros picked next? If so, that’s noteworthy as well.