Early returns on Free Agent Starting Pitching

[Trov]

There was a lot of talent in the free agent market for pitching this past off-season.  Many Twins fans wanted the Twins to make a big bold move.  Of course a couple of the top guys were not going to even listen to Twins.  The like of Scherzer, Verlander, and Kershaw were not coming here.  There were several though that we could have tried to entice, and many were discussed throughout the off season.  I just wanted to take a quick look at some of them and see how some were doing. Keep in mind some of these guys were on one year prove it deals, and some signed to long term deals. 

First, Dylan Bundy, a one year prove it deal.  He started off well, but since has not done well and has a -0.4 WAR.  If we did not have a full 5 man rotation on injured list, he may have been sent walking by now. Clearly there may have been better options.

Robbie Ray was a top get, but he has not been living up to his big contract so far. He has started out as a -0.3 WAR while earning 21 mil this year and still has several years left.  He made career marks last year, and cashed in.  Maybe he regains what last year was, but his career does not suggest he will. Seattle may be regretting the next 5 years from this deal, time will tell. 

Eduardo Rodriguez signed with Detroit, on a 5 year deal. He has been off to a -0,5 WAR, and currently injured.  Maybe he bounces back as still early, but not off to a good start.  Also, his team has not been good either. 

Marcus Strotman signed 3 years with the Cubs. He has been at an even WAR, with up and down starts all year.  

Jon Gray signed 4 year deal with Texas, who has managed to sign some starters in recent years, then flipping for prospects, ala Lynn and Gibson, both of which did great in Texas.  Gray is off to a 0.3 WAR, Will be interesting to see how he trends though. 

Kevin Gausman cashed in on a 5 year deal with Toronto.  He is off to a good start of that contract, at a 1.4 WAR.  He had a rough start against Twins, but that was par for the course for him against Twins.  So far he is earning his contract of 21 mil a year. 

Now to some of the shorter term contracts.  Three with SF, 1 returned. 

Carlos Rodon was not offered QO, which to me rose red flags.  He signed a prove it deal with SF and got off to great start posting a 1.4 WAR, but if you look at May numbers he may be regressing a bit, not as bad as what Bundy is doing for us, but maybe not a great of a signing as he appeared for SF. 

Alex Cobb has a -0.4 WAR so far on his 2 year deal going to SF.  He is not showing any signs of improving at this point either. 

Anthony DeSclafini was a breakout with SF last year.  He signed 3 year deal with SF.  He is off to a -0.1 WAR and is currently injured, and is on 60 day IL right now.  Not a great start to his 3 year deal.

Two flier deals:

Noah Syndergaard is off to a 0.6 WAR but his K-rate is down a ton compared to career.  Maybe he is learning to pitch different, or maybe he will start to get blown u soon. He was just on 1 year deal but at 21 Mil.  However, so far looks like would have been a good deal for the Twins to try and be in on, if there was any interest from Noah.

Michael Wacha on a 1 year deal with Boston for 7 mil.  He was always a guy that showed possible top end stuff, but never stayed healthy averaging about 100 innings per season.  His last two years were not good either.  However, he has come out as the early top flier signing at a 2.0 WAR.  However, deeper look thinks he is up for some regression, with a BABIP of .188 compared to career .300.  He has decreased hard hit rate but his K rate is down and walk rate career average.  He may be getting a little lucky early on, or maybe he figured out something at his age.  

Really, the point of the post is to show how much of a crap shoot signing FA pitchers are.  The three guys mentioned we were even on their radar, 2 resigned with team, they are off to their HOF self and Kershaw is on IL though.  

Wacha was much like Bundy a flier, and he may be a great get, or he may flame out as year goes on.  Of course going back we wish we did Wacha over Bundy, but sure Wacha was not on many must sign lists.  On the long term deals, only Gausman has lived up to is so far.  Rodon has done well on his prove it deal so far, but regressing after a super hot start. 

Overall, not a lot of the higher end starting pitching FA have got off to great starts of their deals. Hard to predict the future with them, and as we have shown you need like 8 to 10 possible starters now a days anyways. 

[Blyleven2011]

I was just thinking about those free agent signings a day or so ago that they weren't living up to their contracts  ...

Rodon had my interest on a flier because he is lefthanded  , Ray I did not see as a top tier pitcher even though he won the cy young last year   ,,, gausman  was the only other pitcher  I had an interest in  and probably the best free agent available  after the top tier scherzer,  Verlander and Kershaw  ...

I have said this many times as players go after the big bucks  ...

They finally find success with a team and then hit the free agent market and sign elsewhere  and fail  ...

When a player finally figures it out  and finds success  a few years with a team , they should stay with the team they had the success with  ....

See Todd Van poppel , no success with Oakland or Texas  , signed with cubs  had a few good years there and then resigned  with Texas as a free agent  and failed ,,,

The love of Money over the love of the game ...

[Vanimal46]

Yeah that has been the trend for a long time now. Only 1 or 2 top FA pitchers tend to work out and the rest turn into anchors by the end of their contract. I wasn’t interested in most of the top options last winter.

The pitchers that I targeted were Jon Gray, who’s turning things around after a rough start to the year, and Alex Wood. Wood has 0.6 bWAR and appears to be a bit unlucky at the moment with a higher ERA (4.66) than FIP (3.47). 

[Trov]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Yeah that has been the trend for a long time now. Only 1 or 2 top FA pitchers tend to work out and the rest turn into anchors by the end of their contract. I wasn’t interested in most of the top options last winter.

The pitchers that I targeted were Jon Gray, who’s turning things around after a rough start to the year, and Alex Wood. Wood has 0.6 bWAR and appears to be a bit unlucky at the moment with a higher ERA (4.66) than FIP (3.47). 

Yeah I posted several times if you look at long term deals for pitchers signed between 29 and 31, most work out for about 1 to 2 years, but anything after that has huge drop off and a lot of bad dead money.  I am all for the Twins looking to spend big for 2 or 3 year deals, but beyond that you are stuck running a bad pitcher out there, or pay them to not pitch for you. 

[nicksaviking]

The Tigers have now placed Eduardo Rodriguez on the restricted list, meaning he’s not with the team and not getting paid.

 I know there were a lot of pundits predicting the Twins would land him. Either way, this doesn’t look good.

Though maybe the issue is that he’s just bummed that the Twins DIDNT sign him.

[Trov]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Tigers have now placed Eduardo Rodriguez on the restricted list, meaning he’s not with the team and not getting paid.

 I know there were a lot of pundits predicting the Twins would land him. Either way, this doesn’t look good.

Though maybe the issue is that he’s just bummed that the Twins DIDNT sign him.

The news on this is very vague as to why he is on the list.  I have not heard what it all is.  Some are speculating mental health, some are thinking substance issues, but nothing has been released other than "personal issues".  I hope for him he can work through those.