Is Emmanuel Rodriguez the fastest rising prospect for Twins?

[Trov]

Twins Daily was quick to jump on Emmanuel Rodriguez as a top 10 prospect list, MLB had him at top 20 for Twins.  He is putting up a crazy good first full year in a normally pitcher friendly league.  His OPS is elite for the league and really should be moving up soon in my opinion.  He is walking more than striking out, but still hitting for power. He is getting on base at 495 right now, with slugging 568.  Last year he struck out at same rate, but this year he is walking at over double the rate he did last year in rookie ball. 

He was a high end signing and COVID year slowed down his debut, but now that he is full season he is running away with being a new top prospect.  I am have not seen him, but his numbers look great, and I would personally not look forward to him being dealt in any deal right now.  I think he will finish year at high A break next year at high A but quick to move up to AA. He has quickly become the prospect I am most interested in watching.  

[Tim]

I think so .. Povich, Festa, and Raya will fly up prospect rankings as well.

Rodriguez has a wRC+ of 203, walking at a 30% clip, 1.000 + OPS, and has 11 stolen bags in A ball.

and he's 19 ... I bet he ends the year on the backend of alot of top 100 lists.

[twins_89]

In the upper minors I'd say Steer is the guy who has made the biggest jump. In A+/A, my list of risers would include Encarnacion-Strand, Headrick, Festa, Gipson-Long, Povich, Rodriguez, Adams, Raya, and Hajjar. Emmanuel Rodriguez is probably at or near the top of the list of fastest rising prospects in the Twins system, but he is far from alone.

[Dman]

He should be in the top 5 by mid year IMO Maybe top 3.  Also wouldn't be surprised to see him in top 100 lists.  I believe he is the most dominant player in the Florida State league right now and it isn't even really close.  He is essentially elite in all phases of the game except K rate.  I don't know what more the kid can do other than move up a level.

 

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

He should be in the top 5 by mid year IMO Maybe top 3.  Also wouldn't be surprised to see him in top 100 lists.  I believe he is the most dominant player in the Florida State league right now and it isn't even really close.  He is essentially elite in all phases of the game except K rate.  I don't know what more the kid can do other than move up a level.

 

I see a Mikey Perez on that top 10 list

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I see a Mikey Perez on that top 10 list

Yeah I noticed that too.  Miller is at #20.  It means more that Rodriguez and Miller are excelling at age 19 though.  If Mikey wants to move up early he needs that OPS in the 900 range IMO.  Still it is good to see him there and see the potential he has.  The Florida State League seems to have better pitching than the other leagues as the OPS numbers are lower there than the other leagues.  Which makes Rodriguez's numbers all the more impressive and bodes well for his transition to High A.

[Doctor Gast]

E Rod & Miller has been on my radar since we drafted them, not only because of their hitting but also because they play CF (E Rod)& SS (Miller) .

[Seth Stohs]

Fast-rising is tough because I think I had him at like 13 or 14 before the season and now have him at like 7 or 8, so he hasn't moved too much. Of course, the closer to the top, the harder it is to move, and the less room to move. 

I would say David Festa has probably increased his prospect status as much as anyone. Brent Headrick has. Maybe Anthony Prato. 

Someone mentioned Steer. Again, I think I had him at like 13-15 preseason and up to 6 for the June 1st vote which is a pretty impressive rise. 

[se7799]

He is soooo far over rated...like I can't believe it..like omg.

[Cap'n Piranha]

38 minutes ago, se7799 said:

He is soooo far over rated...like I can't believe it..like omg.

Care to elaborate?

[Cap'n Piranha]

If I was making a list (and trust me, no one is asking me to make a list), I would have Rodriguez as a 19 year old OPS'ing 1.063 in a pitcher-friendly Low A ranked ahead of Martin as a 23 year old OPS'ing .685 in his second go-around in a hitter-friendly AA.  Rodriguez could repeat low A next year, spend 2024 and 2025 in A+, and not make AA until 2026, all while losing .350 off his OPS, and he would still be performing better than Martin is right now.

[Vanimal46]

If he maintains this fantastic offensive production throughout the season I concur. He’ll make at least one top 100 prospect list in pre-season 2023. I will be head over heels excited if we found a young superstar international FA. 

[tony&rodney]

With Miranda and Lewis seeing time with the Twins, it is pretty easy to argue that E. Rodriguez is the Twins best prospect right now.

[Trov]

17 hours ago, Dman said:

He should be in the top 5 by mid year IMO Maybe top 3.  Also wouldn't be surprised to see him in top 100 lists.  I believe he is the most dominant player in the Florida State league right now and it isn't even really close.  He is essentially elite in all phases of the game except K rate.  I don't know what more the kid can do other than move up a level.

 

He may be striking out at a high percentage, but he walking at an even better percentage, which to me means the K rate is not a huge issue because he is not just going up chasing.  Of course if he could cut down the K rate and keep same walk rate that would be insane.  He clearly works counts and waits for his pitch, which is not common for a lot of young guys.  

[Trov]

16 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Fast-rising is tough because I think I had him at like 13 or 14 before the season and now have him at like 7 or 8, so he hasn't moved too much. Of course, the closer to the top, the harder it is to move, and the less room to move. 

I would say David Festa has probably increased his prospect status as much as anyone. Brent Headrick has. Maybe Anthony Prato. 

Someone mentioned Steer. Again, I think I had him at like 13-15 preseason and up to 6 for the June 1st vote which is a pretty impressive rise. 

I did say that outside of TD he was not as high on most lists.  MLB had him ranked at like 17 or 18.  They had Steer at 9. The three pitchers were not in top 30, but they are all college pitchers.  I would agree Festa might be a bigger jump as he was not on any lists and he is same age as low and and now below age in high A.  The other two, are both 24 which are a little old, in my opinion to be high prospects at their levels they are in.  Rodriguez is still just 19 so still much younger than the average low A player and he is owning the league. 

Because of his age and how he is doing against similar age comp.  Buck did not put up these numbers at same level at same age, and he was a top prospect from the jump.  Buck's numbers were close to what Rodriguez is doing, but not as good. I do get Buck was faster and better defender so that goes into it, but just on the offense side I am think Rodriguez should be in top 5 at mid season.  I will admit, I do not take as much time looking into all of it though. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Trov said:

He may be striking out at a high percentage, but he walking at an even better percentage, which to me means the K rate is not a huge issue because he is not just going up chasing.  Of course if he could cut down the K rate and keep same walk rate that would be insane.  He clearly works counts and waits for his pitch, which is not common for a lot of young guys.  

All I was saying about K rate is that it isn't elite not that it is a huge problem given his other stats. What that says to me is either he doesn't have an elite eye (taking called 3rd strikes) or he doesn't have the ball contact skill of someone like MIranda (Swinging and missing a little too much). If he can take that K number down and turn some of those plate appearances into more walks or more hits that should help him even more.  His BABIP is a little high at .378 so putting a few more balls in play could help down the line.

Like you said it isn't really a problem at this point as he has more walks than K's so he is working counts and seeing the ball well. Also he is only 19 so lot's of time to gain even more experience to help with the K rate.  And to be honest his K rate is far from from horrible at 26-27%.  IMO to be elite that number should be under 20% so he isn't that far off and he is only 19 so Yeah I think he can get there but as of today he is not there quite yet.

[Major League Ready]

His OPS for the last 3 weeks is 1.295.  Wow!!!!!   Seth had him high preseason but I think we see him get national attention soon.  I wonder if they will wait for the draft to move him up.

[Major League Ready]

51 minutes ago, Dman said:

All I was saying about K rate is that it isn't elite not that it is a huge problem given his other stats. What that says to me is either he doesn't have an elite eye (taking called 3rd strikes) or he doesn't have the ball contact skill of someone like MIranda (Swinging and missing a little too much). If he can take that K number down and turn some of those plate appearances into more walks or more hits that should help him even more.  His BABIP is a little high at .378 so putting a few more balls in play could help down the line.

Like you said it isn't really a problem at this point as he has more walks than K's so he is working counts and seeing the ball well. Also he is only 19 so lot's of time to gain even more experience to help with the K rate.  And to be honest his K rate is far from from horrible at 26-27%.  IMO to be elite that number should be under 20% so he isn't that far off and he is only 19 so Yeah I think he can get there but as of today he is not there quite yet.

He also has a very high walk rate that is about equal to his K rate.  It will be nice when he moves up so we can watch him on Milb TV.  It might be that he does not expand the zone with 2 strikes.  So, he takes some called 3rd strikes but gets a bunch of walks.  If in fact the taking 3rd strikes is also leading to a walk rate of around 25%, his crazy high OBP is attached to this approach.  I like it.  We often see guys that chase everything once they get two strikes.  While some hang in there and occasionally get a hit, the ability to take such a high percentage of walks is likely more productive.  Of course, I am speculating having not seen him.

[Vanimal46]

In today’s edition of the Twins can’t have nice things…