Tigers 3, Twins 2: Nick Gordon Show isn't Enough

[David Youngs]

A gem at the plate and in the field, Nick Gordon's spectacular display on Thursday wasn't enough to propel the struggling Twins to a victory against Detroit on Thursday at Comerica Park. Here's what you need to know.

Box Score 
SP: Chris Archer: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (57 pitches, 35 strikes (61.4%))
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Emilio Pagan (-0.556), Luis Arraez (-0.146), Max Kepler (-0.123)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Despite a solid outing from Chris Archer and a stellar day from Nick Gordon the Twins were unable to ignite the ignition in the Motor City, dropping the series finale against the Tigers 3-2.

Coming off a lackluster performance against the Royals, Chris Archer was rock-solid against Detroit, giving up only one run on three hits while striking out three over five innings on the bump. 

Jhoan Duran continued his impressive rookie season with two scoreless innings out of the bullpen, striking out three batters. Through 18 appearances (24 ⅓ innings), Duran has a 2.22 ERA and 0.74 WHIP alongside 35 strikeouts. 

The Twins scored their first run in the third inning. After a Nick Gordon single, Gio Urshela laced a double to left field that scored Gordon from first to put the Twins on the board.

Just an inning later, Gordon returned the favor with a double to center field that scored Trevor Larnach from first. 

In addition to being the only Twin to record a multi-hit game, Gordon flashed the leather in the field with an incredible catch in the eighth inning and a stellar throw to gun out Spencer Torkelson in the fourth. Gordon also added his fifth stolen base on the year in the sixth inning. A single, double, walk, stolen base on top of two incredible defensive plays? Not a bad day at the office.

All systems were pointing towards a win until the eighth inning, After getting the first out (thanks to Gordon's catch), Emilio Pagan gave up a single and a home run that would give Detroit the lead. Pagan took the loss and is now 1-2 on the year with a 3.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. 

What’s Next? 
The Twins head north of the border tomorrow evening to kick off a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Veteran Chi Chi Gonzalez will make his first Major League start of the season, facing off against LHP Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.48 ERA). First pitch is slated for 6:07 pm CST. 

 

Postgame Interview 

Coming Soon

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

 

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[LastOnePicked]

I went to rural Iowa for a little over a week, with no wireless and spotty cell service. When I left, the team was on a six game winning streak. I come back and find that we can't beat the Detroit Tigers and Chi Chi Gonzalez is our next starter. WHAT HAPPENED, gang???

Nevermind. It's Minnesota sports, I can guess what happened. Buxton cursed? Rotation abducted by aliens? New clubhouse intern replaced the wood bats with yellow whiffle bats? I'm sure it's something bad.

[Doctor Gast]

2 players that many have written off Gordon & Archer kept us in the ballgame, along with another splendid outing by Duran. While the top 6, which we count on went 1 for 26. Pretty sad.

[wsnydes]

Not sure what to say about this one that hasn't been said about the last two.

[wsnydes]

I get that Gordon is basically a bit player, but those guys are important too.  He had a hell of game.  I think he's pretty underappreciated for what he does.

[Five minute major]

This team is not going anywhere.   The schedule makers did Rocco a tremendous favor because this team is below average at best.  We just lost four of five to the Tigers and scored two runs total in 3 games.  Unforgivable.  What is it going to take for Rocco to be let go.   We will never go anwhere with him at the helm unless you are the typical Minnesota fan who is satisfied with moral victories and first round playoff exits.  

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

Some thoughts on Jhoan Duran...

His entire Minor League career we was a starter and was clearly successful enough at it to get the call up to The Show this season.  So again I have to ask, why is this team always so quick to toss someone into the bullpen who is considered a "hard thrower"?  With the lack of stars in the rotation and now with all of the injury issues wouldn't Duran have best been used as a Starter out of the gates and not just thrown into the Bullpen to see if he'll sink or swim??  Every pitching coach and manager he has played for considered him a starter until, of course, he runs into the Rocco-LLama who is apparently wiser than everyone else and who sees a 7th inning 3-out arm that can hit 103 MPH on the gun.  Imagine that 13 K/9 and 0.80 WHIP spread out over 40 innings instead of 22.  I just don't understand how the Twins need starters, they trade for a high ceiling flame thrower who is a starter on the rise, he could have slotted in right easily over Dylan Bundy and even Chris Archer right out of Spring Training, but Rocco decides "nah, I want him mowing people down in the middle innings so let's abandon his top of the rotation potential ASAP."

Ok, so fine, smarter men than I have determined he's a Bullpen guy.  So then why is he getting the 6th and 7th innings today?  (Don't even get me started on the whopping 59 whole pitches Archer was allowed to throw today).  If the Twins refuse to let him be a starter than shouldn't they be taking advantage of his abilities as the Closer????  Yes, Pagan has been league average at the Closer so far, but it's not like we traded for the Padres Closer since he's had a career high 20 saves in 2019 with the Rays and 2 with the Padres.  His numbers as a middle relief guy weren't even that great at all in 2020 and 2021.  So why continue to use him instead of moving Duran into the position full time.  Pagan isn't part of the 2023 Twins plans since he'll cost over $4M+ after arb if he keeps getting saves.  

Anyone else have any thoughts?

[USAFChief]

Ouch.

[adorduan]

Pagan inspires zero confidence. I cringe when he comes into a game.

[darwin22]

This is what happens when you continue to FAIL to score RUNS!

I know that comment is pretty "old school" in today's world of analytics, but I'd still make the (to me an obvious) argument that outscoring your opponent is what makes a team successful.  Yes, you can call me Capt. Obvious.

The FACT is the Twins score 3 runs or less way too often!  Today's awful loss, which can rightfully be pinned on Pagan, (more on that later) could've been avoided if our hitters hadn't gone 5-32 (only 1 extra base hit) and 0-8 with RISP.

After 53 games the Twins have scored 3 runs or less 29 times----54.7% of games played.  Won-Loss record is 8-21.

Moreover, in those 53 games the Twins have scored 2 or LESS RUNS---22 times (41.5% of games played.  Win-loss record is 6-16.  Our pitching staff can be credited for those 6 wins as they allowed a combined 3 runs.  In those 6 wins, our collection of challenged hitters produced a paltry total of 10 runs.

On the other side of things, when this offense gets key hits with RISP and slugs the ball, they WIN-----to the tune of 22 wins and 2 losses to date.  

As much as injuries can be attributed to this problem, this team far too often has players---namely, Buxton and Polanco--over the last 3+ weeks that are contributing next to nothing.  

To finish my rant, I do have to ask AGAIN------how much longer do we have to wait for Baldelli (and upper mgmt) to figure out that Duran is our BEST late inning option? 

Count me in the "surprised camp" to see Duran enter the game in the 6th inning today.  I realize Smith has struggled recently, but he hadn't pitched (in bad luck) since Monday throwing 16 pitches. Jax did throw Tuesday (33 pitches) in relief of Smeltzer, but had a full day of rest yesterday.  IMO, either(and both) of them were better options for the 6th and 7th inning.   Can't say I was surprised to see Pagan serve up the go-ahead HR to Cameron as the previous 2 hitters both smoked line drives off him, I would've just preferred to see Duran in the 8th. 

Wondering now, since Duran threw 28 (dominating) pitches today if he's not available to pitch all weekend in TOR? 

 

[h2oface]

57 pitches and done? 

Pagan again? 

Hey, the Dodgers got swept in 3 games at home against the Pirates, losing the games with shoddy defense, pitching faltering, errors, and  closer blowing leads late. It can happen to any team, no matter how good they are. But at least the Dodgers scored runs, too. 

But it still really hurts to see the Twins tank like this. With the playoffs going to 12 teams, I wouldn't be surprised to see a barely .500 team getting in. At least it is not as bad as the NBA where teams with 34-48 and 36-46 got in the playoffs.

[rwilfong86]

As bad as this week has gone, they've still got a 4.5 game lead over Cleveland right now and 5 over the White Sox. It's pretty bad when you have a 3-7 stretch and haven't really lost any ground in the division. 

[darwin22]

1 hour ago, adorduan said:

Pagan inspires zero confidence. I cringe when he comes into a game.

Pagan evokes nightmares of the immortal "RD"---(1982-86).  Still have the emotional scars 40 years later.

[puckstopper1]

The ONLY silver lining to Pagan's implosion is it saved the bullpen from pitching an inning (the Tiger's 9th).

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I went to rural Iowa for a little over a week,

That was a bad idea because it caused some malfunctions for the Twins; Iowa is never a good idea.

 

2 hours ago, Five minute major said:

This team is not going anywhere. 

I think they get to go to Canada, specifically Toronto which is such an amazing city. Baseball has a long season and the All Star game is a good time to look at where your team is and how they project going forward.

 

2 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Ok, so fine, smarter men than I have determined he's a Bullpen guy.

Well, they may or may not be smarter but Duran was injured for much of the last few years. He has the tools obviously and belongs in the big leagues. There is going to be some restrictions on how many innings Duran can pitch this year. In the future he may return to being a starting pitcher. For now he fits in relief. Today he was brought in to face the top six batters in Detroit's lineup. He did well.

 

 

[glunn]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I went to rural Iowa for a little over a week, with no wireless and spotty cell service. When I left, the team was on a six game winning streak. I come back and find that we can't beat the Detroit Tigers and Chi Chi Gonzalez is our next starter. WHAT HAPPENED, gang???

Nevermind. It's Minnesota sports, I can guess what happened. Buxton cursed? Rotation abducted by aliens? New clubhouse intern replaced the wood bats with yellow whiffle bats? I'm sure it's something bad.

Please stay out of Iowa until November. ?

[rwilfong86]

2 minutes ago, glunn said:

Please stay out of Iowa until November. ?

What if he goes to the Field of Dreams and convinces Killebrew and Puckett to come out of the cornfield and play for us? ?

[mnfireman]

At least Chicago continues to lose as well....

[ashbury]

It's Nick Gordon's world - we're just privileged to live in it. 

I was at the game today, along with Mrs Ash and son Stashbury, way down the third base line near the foul pole.  I was delighted to be mocked for my disparaging comments about our left fielder, as he came through again and again with key plays.  The only flaw I choose to pin on to Gordon's game today is my opinion (not shared by my son) that the first run of the game was by the Tigers not respecting Gordon's arm in left.  I imagine Willi Castro is a good leadoff baserunner, but it still seemed to me that with no outs the coach might have held the runner if someone with a threatening arm had been in left.  As it turned out, with a lineout and a double play to follow, maybe a conservative approach would have cost the Tigers the run they earned - so I'm not saying the choice to send Castro was wrong, just that Gordon's arm gave them not even a second thought.

As for Emilio Pagan... ugh.  I've taken a whimsical approach to his recent appearances, as he has wriggled out of trouble time after time, and I unironically applaud his apparent coolness under pressure.  "All he does is win," I've joked.  No more.  I don't want to see him when the game is on the line unless there are no competent late-inning options available that day.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Some thoughts on Jhoan Duran...

His entire Minor League career we was a starter and was clearly successful enough at it to get the call up to The Show this season.  So again I have to ask, why is this team always so quick to toss someone into the bullpen who is considered a "hard thrower"?  With the lack of stars in the rotation and now with all of the injury issues wouldn't Duran have best been used as a Starter out of the gates and not just thrown into the Bullpen to see if he'll sink or swim??  Every pitching coach and manager he has played for considered him a starter until, of course, he runs into the Rocco-LLama who is apparently wiser than everyone else and who sees a 7th inning 3-out arm that can hit 103 MPH on the gun.  Imagine that 13 K/9 and 0.80 WHIP spread out over 40 innings instead of 22.  I just don't understand how the Twins need starters, they trade for a high ceiling flame thrower who is a starter on the rise, he could have slotted in right easily over Dylan Bundy and even Chris Archer right out of Spring Training, but Rocco decides "nah, I want him mowing people down in the middle innings so let's abandon his top of the rotation potential ASAP."

Ok, so fine, smarter men than I have determined he's a Bullpen guy.  So then why is he getting the 6th and 7th innings today?  (Don't even get me started on the whopping 59 whole pitches Archer was allowed to throw today).  If the Twins refuse to let him be a starter than shouldn't they be taking advantage of his abilities as the Closer????  Yes, Pagan has been league average at the Closer so far, but it's not like we traded for the Padres Closer since he's had a career high 20 saves in 2019 with the Rays and 2 with the Padres.  His numbers as a middle relief guy weren't even that great at all in 2020 and 2021.  So why continue to use him instead of moving Duran into the position full time.  Pagan isn't part of the 2023 Twins plans since he'll cost over $4M+ after arb if he keeps getting saves.  

Anyone else have any thoughts?

I think you summed up my feelings pretty well.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

That was a bad idea because it caused some malfunctions for the Twins; Iowa is never a good idea.

 

I think they get to go to Canada, specifically Toronto which is such an amazing city. Baseball has a long season and the All Star game is a good time to look at where your team is and how they project going forward.

 

Well, they may or may not be smarter but Duran was injured for much of the last few years. He has the tools obviously and belongs in the big leagues. There is going to be some restrictions on how many innings Duran can pitch this year. In the future he may return to being a starting pitcher. For now he fits in relief. Today he was brought in to face the top six batters in Detroit's lineup. He did well.

 

 

Correction, the "team" does not go to Canada. The players who are vaccinated go to Canada. And as Forrest Gump said: "That's all I've got to say about that."

[glunn]

1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

What if he goes to the Field of Dreams and convinces Killebrew and Puckett to come out of the cornfield and play for us? ?

Can we also get Walter Johnson, please?

[TwinsAce]

1 hour ago, glunn said:

Please stay out of Iowa until November. ?

I must confess...I also went to Iowa this week for work. I shall try to avoid Iowa until Thanksgiving. 

[darwin22]

Mentioned this earlier, but the continued futility of Polanco and Buxton are a major reason for the drop of offensive production since the middle of May.  It is true that the Twins have a winning record (10-8) from May 16th through today, but as many of you know this team has lost 7 of their last 10--with all of those losses coming against DET and KC.

Polanco's stats--last 15 GP (5-16 thr 6-2)

.AVG:  .190  (11-58)

Extra base hits:  1  (HR)

Slug Pct:  .241

RBI:  6* (none over his last 7 games---hitting in 4 hole)

BB:  8

K:  16

SB:  2

Buxton's Stats---last 14 GPs/ 1 game PH/ 13 starts

AVG:  .127 (7-55)

Extra base hits:  1  (1 double)

Slug Pct:  .145

RBI:  2--------yes 2.  Zero RBI since May 21st covering his last 39 ABs

BB:  6

K:  12

SB:  0

When you factor these miserable numbers in with the sporadic starts by Correa, IL stint of Lewis, Covid IL of Celestino, continued no production from Jeffers-----its no surprise this team is in a free fall.  Without the production of Sanchez, Arraez, Larnach, Gordon and Urshea over the last 2 weeks----this team could be doing worse.  If this team has any aspirations of playing meaningful games in September and into October, Buxton and Polanco have got to lead the way.

 

 

[rv78]

Why isn't Duran the closer? Because Rocco won't use rookies in high leverage situations such as the closer role if he has a veteran that is half as good. Even last year when they were in last place he went back to using Colome as his closer and didn't even try Alcala in that role until the last game of the season. If there ever was a time to start grooming a player for a specific role such as a closer, the time was then. Alcala could have been closing games all of September. Another Rocco mistake that was made last year that he continues to make this year. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Duran came in the 6th to face the top of the Detroit order. 

For those scoring at home, that means the top of the Detroit order would have also come up in the 9th (or 8th). So while there’s an argument to be made for using Duran while the game is close, there’s also the argument for saving Duran again for the higher leverage innings at the end. A one-run lead in the 8th is higher leverage than a one-run lead in the sixth. 

But anyway. Let’s all throw our support behind Chai Chai Gonzo-LAY (WKRP reference) getting the start tomorrow in Toronto. 
 

go Twins!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, glunn said:

Please stay out of Iowa until November. ?

If you recall, the season has been backed up a week, so if you could be more lenient about how late in November.. 

[Aggies7]

Modern baseball sometimes tries to get too cute for its own good, to the point of annoyance. The “closers are overrated” trope appeared again today in defense of putting our best reliever into the game in the 6th inning. Duran should be the closer until proven otherwise. Not the 6th inning guy. Not the 7th inning guy. Maybe the 8th inning guy if you’re planning on making him go two innings. But he’s the closer. Stop relying on guys like pagan and duffey and Jax to pitch the 8th/9th. In fact, pagan should never appear past the 7th inning. How much more do fans need to see until they realize he is terrible at closing games? As I said in the GDT, if we’re forced to use unreliable relievers, I’d rather see them in the 6th or 7th. That way, we have more at bats to come back if they cough up the lead.

[2wins87]

Duran came in to protect a one run lead for two innings. Just because it's not the 9th doesn't mean it isn't high leverage.

If the offense does it's job when he is on the mound it could have been a 2 or 3 run lead in the 8th which would have been a lower leverage situation than the one he came into.  This is a good way to use Duran, it is the lack of any other reliable bullpen arms that is an issue, and that's on the front office, not Rocco 

Should Archer have been left in longer? Maybe. But we've seen him entirely lose his control after about 50 pitches several times this year. If he's going to be a starter then he probably should be built up to pitch deeper at some point, but I don't necessarily trust him to hold that lead in the 6th. And I'm certain that no one that's here complaining about how terrible this team is after every loss trusts him in that situation either.

I do sort of hold Rocco accountable for seemingly not realizing that Pagan has not actually been good all year. He should be able to look past ERA to the peripherals (or just the eye test) and realize that he's been lucky to get out of so many situations of his own making, and the luck is starting to run out. But on the other hand, who should he trust? I suppose Thielbar has looked solid enough over the last month. Duffey is still getting shelled every few outings.

The other issue of course is that the offense has looked to be in shambles the last 3 games between slumping hitters and key pieces missing. That could change fairly quickly and hopefully will. I'm worried about what the lineup will look like in Toronto though, when we likely find out that a few important hitters have refused to be vaccinated.

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Soon as I saw Pagan warming up, I thought, "Game over, he'll cough up two runs."

I don't even count that as a particularly insightful prediction. It's just Pagan's modus operandi this season. Clearly he's got the stuff to get guys out, but first he has to walk a guy and give up a home run. After that, he'll burn right through any lineup. 

Wish I knew what it took to fix this guy.