Is Chris Archer Starting to Become a Liability?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota signed Chris Archer late this spring to add veteran depth to the rotation. As the Twins finish the season’s first third, Archer is becoming a liability for a first-place team.

 

Minnesota’s front office knew what they were getting when they signed Chris Archer to fit into the team’s rotation. He was multiple years past his All-Star caliber seasons in Tampa, and injuries and ineffectiveness allowed the team to sign him for a $3.5 million contract. There was no reason to have high expectations, but the Twins hoped Archer could be effective in a back-of-the-rotation role. 

Archer has been largely ineffective in his nine starts for the Twins. He has posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a 29-to-16 strikeout to walk ratio. Also, Archer is one of two pitchers to make over five starts and have an ERA+ of 90 or lower. For his career, he has a K/9 close to 10.0, but that total has dipped to 7.6 K/9 in 2022. His Statcast numbers are also well below the league average in virtually every category.

Archer is being used similarly to a long-reliever that happens to be starting a game, but this might be the only option with his current skill set. Like a reliever, he relies heavily on two pitches as his slider and four-seam fastball are used more than 84% of the time. Unfortunately, batters have produced an .811 slugging percentage when facing his fastball, so he relies more on his secondary pitches. 

At this point, Minnesota’s coaches have to expect that the bullpen will pitch significant innings when Archer starts. In his Week in Review, Nick alluded that the bullpen has become a revolving door with players being shuffled back and forth from St. Paul. Luckily, the Twins’ bullpen has been relatively effective, but innings are starting to add up at this early juncture of the season. 

Minnesota ranks third among American League teams with over 200 innings pitched by relievers. According to Win Probability Added, the Twins’ bullpen has generated over two wins for the club, ranking in baseball’s top-5. However, the team’s fWAR is one of two clubs (Arizona) to have a negative value for the entire season. As innings continue to pile up, one has to wonder if the bullpen will be able to continue to carry this kind of load. 

Archer is hardly Minnesota’s biggest problem at this point in the season, but it’s hard to imagine the team will be able to continue to use him if he can’t pitch deeper into games. There also aren’t prospects knocking down the door to take his place at the big-league level. Top pitching prospects Jordan Balazovic and Cole Sands are at Triple-A, but neither has performed particularly well with the Saints. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Matt Canterino are performing well at Double-A, but neither is on the 40-man roster. For now, it seems likely for the Twins to continue to trot Archer out there, yet he continues to be a liability for the pitching staff. 

What have been your impressions of Archer so far in 2022? Can the team continue to use him in his current role? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[4twinsJA]

Given Archer's statcast numbers, why would Twins want to push him to go longer in games. Seems to be able to keep batter off balance enough to labor through 4 innings but anymore would surely lead to trouble. Smeltzer has been an unexpected surprise, for me anyway. When Gray, Ryan back, Archer may be odd one out. I am not a Bundy fan either, but he has been more effective than Archer. Could see rotation of Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, and Smeltzer with Winder in long relief.

[Karbo]

I like Archer but unless he can stretch out to at least 5+ innings he doesn't belong in the starting rotation. I've been saying since the start of ST we need at least 1 more starter either through trade or promotion. AS the article points out promotions are looking thin right now. Sounds like time for the FO to work the phones! 

[old nurse]

The last paragraph pretty much summed up the problem.  It is worse for the bullpen despite all the number of pitchers on the 40 man roster

[TwinsDr2021]

If the plan by the FO and/manager is to continue to start Archer, they better have a guy ready to pitch the 5th, 6th and 7th, because using the bullpen to get the last 5 innings is problematic and will overuse the pen. 

[D.C Twins]

Yes...  but the real question is whether he is more of a liability than the current alternatives.... 

[DJL44]

He's not a great option but he's better than Cole Sands. With Winder, Paddack and Ryan all out there aren't any better options. Joe Ryan and Josh Winder should be back soon. That would temporarily make the depth chart Ryan / Gray / Ober / Winder / Smeltzer / Bundy / Archer. I am going to guess Smeltzer gets optioned or turned into a long reliever but I'd love to see Bundy and Archer moved to the bullpen. We could see Winder piggy-back with Archer again.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I was hoping Archer would improve over time, but I really question if it's going to happen. He just doesn't have the control one needs to make his arsenal of pitches work. It just doesn't work to have to throw 80-85 pitches to get through 4 innings for a guy with good stuff and Archer no longer has good stuff. He has to pitch to contact, induce weak conduct and throw 10-15 pitches for 5 or 6 innings to have any chance.  He just isn't getting any better with his control and he won't be a passable starter until he does. Hey, we can't expect a lot out of a No. 5 starter but Archer isn't even making that mark right now.  

I think Archer is the guy Paddack was supposed to replace by now. Instead, I see Smeltzer as his replacement once Gray and Ryan are back, hopefully within a week for Ryan. I wonder if Archer can provide value in the bullpen given his inability to throw enough strikes. I hope he can, we need the help, but he isn't inspiring a lot of confidence. 

Second half rotation - Gray, Ryan, Ober, Smeltzer, Winder/Bundy/Archer, with the two losers either in the bullpen or released. I think the hope is Winder hits the #5 spot, and we keep one of Bundy or Archer as the #6 starter/long reliever, I don't see much of a trade market for either Archer; Bundy may be tradable as the second player in a package with a good but not great prospect to a mediocre team for a #3/4 type starter. . 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Given Archer's statcast numbers, why would Twins want to push him to go longer in games. Seems to be able to keep batter off balance enough to labor through 4 innings but anymore would surely lead to trouble. Smeltzer has been an unexpected surprise, for me anyway. When Gray, Ryan back, Archer may be odd one out. I am not a Bundy fan either, but he has been more effective than Archer. Could see rotation of Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, and Smeltzer with Winder in long relief.

I prefer Winder in the rotation and Archer long relief.

[chpettit19]

I wonder if they'll have a talk with him about a role in the pen. Could he gain a tick of velo on the fastball in an inning or 2 instead of 4? Could he use his slider 65% of the time for an inning or 2 and get outs? I'm not worried about him being able to handle the pressure of late inning work so it'd come down to being able to control his pitches for an inning or 2 and use his slider a ton. I think it'd be worth a conversation as arms come back healthy. 

[PopRiveter]

For him to be a liability, you have to accept the following premises:

1) Archer cannot effectively pitch any deeper in a game than the 4 innings where management has capped him

2) More effective starters are available and missing an opportunity each time he starts

Premise #2 may possibly present a problem at some point later this season, but with all the injuries and illness that have impacted the rotation this year I don't see how anyone could argue any deserving pitchers have been held back.

Premise #1 is pretty tough to prove or disprove with how he's been managed. He's thrown between 61-79 pitches in each outing and has been pulled early regardless of results or game situation. They appear to be cautiously guarding him rather than making any attempt to stretch him out. 

I'm puzzled by the approach. Is the best-case hope to limit use early on, let him build steam and stretch him out late in the season in hopes he can be a trusted playoff starter? Are they just suppressing his usage as a starter so they can migrate him toward the bullpen? Do they simply have no trust in him? 

I for one would prefer a chance to see what his pitches 80-100 would look like.

 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

If he's willing, I'd give him a try as a 7th-8th inning guy who just comes in lets it fly.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

For him to be a liability, you have to accept the following premises:

1) Archer cannot effectively pitch any deeper in a game than the 4 innings where management has capped him

2) More effective starters are available and missing an opportunity each time he starts

Premise #2 may possibly present a problem at some point later this season, but with all the injuries and illness that have impacted the rotation this year I don't see how anyone could argue any deserving pitchers have been held back.

Premise #1 is pretty tough to prove or disprove with how he's been managed. He's thrown between 61-79 pitches in each outing and has been pulled early regardless of results or game situation. They appear to be cautiously guarding him rather than making any attempt to stretch him out. 

I'm puzzled by the approach. Is the best-case hope to limit use early on, let him build steam and stretch him out late in the season in hopes he can be a trusted playoff starter? Are they just suppressing his usage as a starter so they can migrate him toward the bullpen? Do they simply have no trust in him? 

I for one would prefer a chance to see what his pitches 80-100 would look like.

 

From what I've seen out of him it looks to me like he loses steam pretty quick. His 1st time through an order vs 2nd is also not pretty. It's part of why I think a move to the pen could answer a couple problems at once.

1st time through the order he's given up a .203/.259/.405/.665 slash line. 2nd time through his line is .283/.377/.500/.877. Now we're talking small sample sizes with 81 PAs first time through and 69 2nd time through (has 4 3rd time through PAs over 2 games and he's walked 2 and given up a double in those 4 PAs).

He's also been much better with more rest. He's made 4 starts on regular 4 days rest and they've been bad. 2 starts on 5 days rest have been not great. 3 starts on 6+ days have been by far his best. 

Interesting thing with his pitch count performance as he's been bad pitches 1-25, really good pitches 26-50, and brutal pitches 51+.

Looking at all these kinds of things together and he feels like a reliever to me right now. Maybe he can be a 2 inning guy. Give him a clean inning and let him rip once through a lineup. Maybe he can turn into a reliable pen weapon for the second half of the year. The question is how willing he would be to make that switch and if they have enough healthy arms to allow for it. But his numbers certainly don't look like pitches 80-100 would be pretty.

[Seansy]

AsI have said elsewhere. Keep Smeltzer in the rotation and move Archer to long relief as other SPs get healthy.

Archer's stuff is fine 1st time through the order but craters the 2nd time through. This is why he should move to long relief instead of laboring through 4 innings in every start.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I prefer Winder in the rotation and Archer long relief.

Perhaps. Archer might work best as a 3 inning opener to keep him on a regular schedule. I'm not sure Archer's arm can hold up to back-to-back relief work. Plus, Winder is probably limited to 100 more innings this season. They both seem limited in innings and need extended rest. Put them together and they could give you 7 innings every 5th game.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Interesting thing with his pitch count performance as he's been bad pitches 1-25, really good pitches 26-50, and brutal pitches 51+.

So he pitches poorly to the top of the lineup but can get the bottom of the lineup out.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So he pitches poorly to the top of the lineup but can get the bottom of the lineup out.

Certainly plays a role. It's all very small sample sizes, but yeah, leadoff hitters have killed him.

[Danchat]

You can remove "Starting to Become" from the title of the article and that'll do it. Archer should be a long reliever who can go 2-3 innings per outing - hopefully Winder will be healthy soon and can take his place.

[bean5302]

Archer was a late signing (March 29th) and was not stretched out. The Twins obviously have him on a pitch (80) or inning cap (4.0). Considering fans were fawning over Ober and Ryan last year when their ERAs were right about what Archer's is today, it seems a little out of touch to decide Archer is worthless.

He's had 3 good starts in a row based on FIP. 4 of his last 6 starts have been solid enough based on ERA. I'd think he was stretched out enough at this point where he should be able to pitch normally so I'd like to see him be given the opportunity to pitch deeper.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Perhaps. Archer might work best as a 3 inning opener to keep him on a regular schedule. I'm not sure Archer's arm can hold up to back-to-back relief work. Plus, Winder is probably limited to 100 more innings this season. They both seem limited in innings and need extended rest. Put them together and they could give you 7 innings every 5th game.

With Winder's injury and the teams handling of starting pitchers, I don't think really think they have to worry about him getting to much more than 100. Unless of course they make a deep run in the playoffs, but that is something that can be worried about later.

IMO pitchers 25 and older should be able to do more without worry of injury, unless of course they are injury prone, which seems to be a lot of the Twins prospects.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

You can remove "Starting to Become" from the title of the article and that'll do it. Archer should be a long reliever who can go 2-3 innings per outing - hopefully Winder will be healthy soon and can take his place.

He is 3rd on the team in innings and has an ERA of 4.19 (The exact same as Ober last year and just above Ryan, without of the upside of course) so I think liability is a bit harsh, but I think they way the Twins have handle his starts is up for much discussion, but that could said just about all the starters. They seem to have a plan if the pitcher is decent but not bad or good.

[operation mindcrime]

No he's not, because he already is one! 

[rv78]

1.Sometimes you get more than what you pay for and all of what you Hope for.

2.Sometimes you get exactly what you pay for. and not quite what you Hope for.

3.Sometimes you don't get what you pay for. or what you Hope for.

I think Archer falls somewhere between #2 and #3. The Twins didn't pay much for him and I'm sure they Hope he'll be the Pitcher he once was, making them look like geniuses. It's the ol' Terry Ryan "Hope and a Prayer' signing that very seldom if ever works.

[Mander]

Archer and Bundy should be in long relief or DFA'd. Bring up the rookies from the minors. Give em a shot.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Mander said:

Archer and Bundy should be in long relief or DFA'd. Bring up the rookies from the minors. Give em a shot.

Cole Sands pitched yesterday. He was not good.

[terrydactyls]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Cole Sands pitched yesterday. He was not good.

The Twins have about 50-60 pitchers currently active in the minors.  A sample size of Sands is not really a good argument for not bringing someone up.

[PopRiveter]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

From what I've seen out of him it looks to me like he loses steam pretty quick. His 1st time through an order vs 2nd is also not pretty. It's part of why I think a move to the pen could answer a couple problems at once.

1st time through the order he's given up a .203/.259/.405/.665 slash line. 2nd time through his line is .283/.377/.500/.877. Now we're talking small sample sizes with 81 PAs first time through and 69 2nd time through (has 4 3rd time through PAs over 2 games and he's walked 2 and given up a double in those 4 PAs).

He's also been much better with more rest. He's made 4 starts on regular 4 days rest and they've been bad. 2 starts on 5 days rest have been not great. 3 starts on 6+ days have been by far his best. 

Interesting thing with his pitch count performance as he's been bad pitches 1-25, really good pitches 26-50, and brutal pitches 51+.

Looking at all these kinds of things together and he feels like a reliever to me right now. Maybe he can be a 2 inning guy. Give him a clean inning and let him rip once through a lineup. Maybe he can turn into a reliable pen weapon for the second half of the year. The question is how willing he would be to make that switch and if they have enough healthy arms to allow for it. But his numbers certainly don't look like pitches 80-100 would be pretty.

That’s a pretty dang insightful reply. I appreciate it!

[Doctor Gast]

You can't blame Archer's poor showing in PIT any more you can blame Glasnow, Cole, Musgrove etc. with their less than spectacular showing while in PIT. Most pitchers that leave there complain how terrible the pitching coaching is. Archer will never complain.

Archer's time in PIT, injury & surgery has set Archer way back and he's just coming back. Archer had a bad game in HOU but so did Ryan and Winder, he also had a bad game in Detroit but so did Winder and Ober. Yet nobody has claimed that they are a liability. Yet the other 7 games Archer has given the Twins  opportunities to win.

I'd love to see Archer go 5 but he's not there yet. To value Archer only on the basis of not being able to go 5 IMO is ridiculous because he has the 3rd most innings pitched of all the Twins. Before he was hurt he was a work horse regularly pitching 200 innings/ yr., IDK when or if he can ever acheive that level again but he could. 

I would love if Archer could pitch in long relief, then he could qualify for some wins that he deserves. But it's a bad idea #1 he's been a SP his entire career he's accustom to take a long time to get ready for the game. #2 Baldelli totally ignores long relief. If they both can overcome their mindset, I'd be OK w/ it.

Many when they look at Archer they only see the negative hype from PIT and the mindset that if a pitcher can't pitch 5 innings he's a terrible pitcher. Both are wrong. Archer only pitching 4 innings is not a problem, Baldelli solely relying on short relief is where the problem lies. Archer adding  1+ more innings to his outings isn't going to solve that problem.  Since the coaching staff has been working closer with Archer his control has gotten worse (which drive me crazy) but that'll come around a long with the length of his outings.

He's not a 2 pitch pitcher he has 5 (FB, curve, slider, change up and sinker). But Archer's greatest asset to the team is his chemistry and mentorship that he adds, that's invaluable for a young pitching core. If we hadn't signed Archer we'd be a worse team with a much worse record. He'll be well worth our patience

 

[Rosterman]

What we are looking at, again, is who is going to give us 25 starts this season. Who is going to give us 30?

Because of the starting depth that the team has, it should be a pretty decent season to get significant workload to ALL the pitchers. Injuries, short starts and all for the first quarter of the season is actually working to the Twins advantage.

First off, WInder. Although I would like to see him start, he did what was called upon - started when needed due to injuries to others, and was a greaty piggyback on a short start. I picture that he will go back to St. Paul when the time comes to start on a regular basis.

Archer and Bundy. Both are projects. We hope Bundy will hit 30 starts and 150 innings. Looks like he could easily do that. The rub is: will he just do it? Can he produce some better numbers overall? Can he make himself, by chance, a tradable commodity come the end of July?

Archer should be the long-relief guy, pitching 3-4 innings every 3-5 days. He has 9 starts and 34 innings. His contract basically calls him a starter, not someone to follow an opener. Not someone to just get some innings. Will he be the odd guy out in the mix? Has he given ANY thought to becoming a dominating relief pitcher, even working towards being a closer?

Smeltzedr has earned a spot in the rotation. One, he is left-handed. Two, he is pitching the innings. Will the league catch up to him (shades of Martin Perez discussed in another post). Or will he be successful longterm? You owrry that he can perform a full season with this many innings. He only threw 104 in 2019, and over the past two seasons only 20, which he has far surpassed alread.

Ober and Ryan - be happy if both pitch 30 starts and 150 innings. Both should be capable of hitting those thresholds. And both have missed starts already this season. 

Gray - is working his own schedule. Is already starting the season slow, might have another disabled list stint.

Somehow, with 7 starters (8 counting Sands) the Twins have MANAGED TO HAVE a five-man rotation. 

The pain is the top couple at AAA are stinking up the mound. Balazovic is a disaster. So much so I wouldn't even want to trust him in a double-header just to give him a taste of the majors. Strotman has become a bullpen arm, but hasn't adjusted like Griffin Jax, who by the way threw more pitches than six of the 7 starters. Henriquez is also a candidate, he is quite young, and is also overmatched.

And unless the Twins are really desparate, I don't see them opening a 40-man spot for just a spot start or two with any of the AA guys of not: Canterino, Varland, Woods-Richardson - all three SHOULD advance to AAA but probably not the Twins before mid-September, if they can come to the roster even them. Enlow and Legumina will fill out the season at AA with longer-term hopes, for now.

And the Twins do have Derek Rodriguez and Chi Chi Gonzalez begging for a shot back at the majors. Can the Twins find a way to rotate them in and not lose anyone off the 40-man.

The Twins have 7 starters. Winder will probably be the odd man out. But that will still give them six and, eventually, a bullpen of 7. One has to be a viable pen option, and all the remaining have to always pitch five innings, preferably six...or the bullpen arms will be worn out.

[miller761]

If this FO is committed to winning this division Smeltzer has to be in the rotation based on results and pitching deep into games. Archer needs to go to bullpen in long relief. When everyone is healthy a 6 man rotation would be great. It becomes a question of who Rocco and the FO are committed to... 2 over the hill free agents or talented young pitchers who need the experience and development and are giving you results.