The Twins Bullpen Is Teetering on the Brink of Disaster

[Whitey333]

Rocco's "plan". Sure is working well.  Rest people as much as you can.  If we happen to win then so be it.  I'm convinced that winning is not his goal.  But following " the plan" is more important. And it shows.  The plan to rest players and baby the pitchers is working well isn't it?  Look at all the people on the IL.  Now they are starting to lose games they should win.  The bullpen already looks tired.  We have way too many guys injured.  Same old story this year with Buxton as he is always hurt.  What fan isn't sick of that?  And the last few weeks he's been playing terribly when he gets out there.  Now we have the covid bug and a "handful" of players that aren't aloud to go into Canada for this weekends games in Toronto.then we play Yankees and Rays right after that.  As for the poor defensive plays yesterday:. It's a bad sign.  But when Miranda misplayed a couple of balls, why wasn't the pitcher able to pick him up and pitch out of the situation.  I maintain the next 15 games could determine the season. Too bad we don't have a full roster.  But at least they have a built in excuse should the losing continue

[bunsen82]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

“No team serious about contending trades Rogers.” Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year. 

This hits the nail on the head.  The front office is getting exactly what it wanted out of this year,  a team overachieving,  but a team that doesn't logistically have a chance to compete for a championship unless you do a lot of tinkering at the trade deadline.  Now they will have some ammo.  There may be a bit of a 40 man crunch so we can use some prospects for trade bait that we would likely lose,  but honestly I don't think it will be as tough as what the community has thought.  We will most likely outright Sano,  Sanchez is done.   Duffy is an unrestricted free agent.  Most likely we will not have Correa and Urshela will be a decision we will have to make on his arbitration, although as of now he is likely worth the contract.   We also have a couple more we can cut with minimal impact such as Dobnak, Bundy, Archer and then you have the prospects that you can move off the 40 man that you no longer want to protect due to injury or poor performance.   There is a lot of moving parts for this team and lots of options how they want to construct next years team and 40 man.   

[saviking]

The question is what to do about it. Alcala, soon, and turn Sands and a few more young starters from AA into emergency relievers for the rest of the year along with a trade ..

[Mark G]

16 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

This hits the nail on the head.  The front office is getting exactly what it wanted out of this year,  a team overachieving,  but a team that doesn't logistically have a chance to compete for a championship unless you do a lot of tinkering at the trade deadline.  Now they will have some ammo.  There may be a bit of a 40 man crunch so we can use some prospects for trade bait that we would likely lose,  but honestly I don't think it will be as tough as what the community has thought.  We will most likely outright Sano,  Sanchez is done.   Duffy is an unrestricted free agent.  Most likely we will not have Correa and Urshela will be a decision we will have to make on his arbitration, although as of now he is likely worth the contract.   We also have a couple more we can cut with minimal impact such as Dobnak, Bundy, Archer and then you have the prospects that you can move off the 40 man that you no longer want to protect due to injury or poor performance.   There is a lot of moving parts for this team and lots of options how they want to construct next years team and 40 man.   

I can't argue with a word you just said...........and that scares me.  the 7-8 names you bring up are a pretty large core of the team we put together to compete this year.  If all of those go, or most of them, what does that say about this year?  Was it just a transitional year to better things, or was it an out and out failure?  If they do overachieve, is that a good thing, or just luck?  And if they flounder, do we give the FO a mulligan and look at next year as the year we were supposed to win all along?  

Remember, '18, '19, and '20 were supposed to be the building of a core years.  '18 didn't pan out, '19 overachieved quite a bit, '20 we will never know about, and '21, when things were supposed to begin to crest was a flop.  Are we still building, or was this the team?  Or next year?  We have all the potential in the world, but doesn't almost every team?  The difference between the winners and losers is the combination of potential and proven; up and comers who will make it, and free agents who already have.  Have we done that?  And when will we know? 

I know this is a BP article, but it seems to exemplify the team as a whole in how it was constructed and what it was expected to do.  We can only hope it holds up for another 113 games, and I wish them the best.  

[chpettit19]

What is our definition of imminent here? From what I've been reading Alcala should be pretty close to ready to go when his 60-day sentence runs out in 10 days or so. That's not today or tomorrow, but if he's back in 2 weeks I think that's a huge boost to the pen. I spent much of the weekend enjoying adult beverages so it's quite possible I've missed some reports since Saturday, but isn't his return pretty imminent?

I think a trade or 2 will definitely be needed, but I'm not expecting those anytime soon. Teams simply don't trade good trade pieces before July. The selling teams need bidding wars for their veteran pieces and you can't drive the cost up in early June like you can at the end of July. The FO may want to make moves now, but they very likely don't have the option, unless they're willing to trade much better prospects than they should for relievers. So the question to me is more about how quickly they turn to starting pitching prospects as major league relievers, or turn to a piggy back situation to save bullpen arms an extra day. Canterino being the most likely "starter debuts as reliever" candidate to me while Bundy and Archer seem to be perfectly suited to piggy back each other for all 9 innings of a game.

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I can't argue with a word you just said...........and that scares me.  the 7-8 names you bring up are a pretty large core of the team we put together to compete this year.  If all of those go, or most of them, what does that say about this year?  Was it just a transitional year to better things, or was it an out and out failure?  If they do overachieve, is that a good thing, or just luck?  And if they flounder, do we give the FO a mulligan and look at next year as the year we were supposed to win all along?  

Remember, '18, '19, and '20 were supposed to be the building of a core years.  '18 didn't pan out, '19 overachieved quite a bit, '20 we will never know about, and '21, when things were supposed to begin to crest was a flop.  Are we still building, or was this the team?  Or next year?  We have all the potential in the world, but doesn't almost every team?  The difference between the winners and losers is the combination of potential and proven; up and comers who will make it, and free agents who already have.  Have we done that?  And when will we know? 

I know this is a BP article, but it seems to exemplify the team as a whole in how it was constructed and what it was expected to do.  We can only hope it holds up for another 113 games, and I wish them the best.  

This season is a success in the managements eyes,  and us for fans should be pretty happy as well.  They were able to put out a decent product and we see signs of younger talent that will be key cogs for this team in the next couple of years.  This has been a transition year all along.  This all comes down to expectations.   Many have had their expectations go sky high on this season,  and from my viewpoint they are a slightly above .500 team as currently constructed.  The managements focus all along has been LONG-TERM success throughout the organization.  It means they will look for this year and do as much as they can,  but ultimately their horizon is much longer than tomorrow, July or Sept.  It has been stated many times though if you get to the playoffs you have a chance.  That is true no matter how small the chance is you still have a chance.  But if you want to win it all you need multiple chances,  so I would rather have a team that can get to the playoffs the next 6 out of 8 years.  With multiple shots you have a better chance at the ultimate payoff of a WS.    

[Will Goodwin]

Nick - help me understand one point: if our bullpen's WAR is very low, their WPA is very high, does this mean that they've been good circumstantially and in high-leverage, but poor overall stats?

[bunsen82]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What is our definition of imminent here? From what I've been reading Alcala should be pretty close to ready to go when his 60-day sentence runs out in 10 days or so. That's not today or tomorrow, but if he's back in 2 weeks I think that's a huge boost to the pen. I spent much of the weekend enjoying adult beverages so it's quite possible I've missed some reports since Saturday, but isn't his return pretty imminent?

I think a trade or 2 will definitely be needed, but I'm not expecting those anytime soon. Teams simply don't trade good trade pieces before July. The selling teams need bidding wars for their veteran pieces and you can't drive the cost up in early June like you can at the end of July. The FO may want to make moves now, but they very likely don't have the option, unless they're willing to trade much better prospects than they should for relievers. So the question to me is more about how quickly they turn to starting pitching prospects as major league relievers, or turn to a piggy back situation to save bullpen arms an extra day. Canterino being the most likely "starter debuts as reliever" candidate to me while Bundy and Archer seem to be perfectly suited to piggy back each other for all 9 innings of a game.

Most likely they continue to limp along with the Bullpen we have hoping to get gradual help from those coming back from injuries such as Alcala and Dobnack and Maeda.   Then see if we can find 1-2 more from prospects that can also be a reliable arm. Then see if we can get a couple more at the deadline.   We need at minimum 4-5 very good options for the playoffs,  currently we have 1 with Smith being another who has performed well up to this point but likely doesn't have the stuff to put a team over the finish line come the playoffs.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The issue here is that management does not feel comfortable letting any pitchers go more than twice through the batting order.  For that reason, they proactively pull them which causes us to cycle through relievers and stressing out the BP.  You could say it is working to a degree as we are in first place but this is not a long-term solution.  I see two answers.

1. We need more quality starters that can go more than twice through the batting order to get 7 or 8 innings from them.  Think Dodgers or Astros.  Not an easy task.

2. The league should permanently expand rosters to 27 or 28 as the hitting is catching up with pitching and not allowing many teams at all to get their starters past 5 or 6 innings.

[Craig Arko]

It's always been like this. Even in 87 and 91 there were maybe 2-3 reliable relievers.

I think the real problem is that the starters need to go deeper into games. This will cover a multitude of sins in the pen.

[Dantes929]

16 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Currently in feeling like (apart from Ryan & Duran) the entire pitching staff is getting by with smoke & mirrors. Over achieving. 

And even my wife loses her mind whenever Duffy (Dean Ambrose) or Pagan step out onto the mound. 

I'm really wishing Alcala comes back soon...

Pagan has reduced his walk rate drastically since the beginning of the season.   2.12 ERA.    I like the way he battles.      Perkins and Nathan used to stress everyone out also.    

[RLTW894]

I’m going to make a prediction. The Brewers have pitching. They need bats. The Twins have bats. They need pitching. I can see a trade here. Even a middle-of-the-road middle reliever out of the Brewers bullpen would be an upgrade. The Twins would need to give up a lefty hitter and it would be a question of which one. 

I may be off on the team, as usually it’s the bottom feeders that provide the trades, but I feel quite certain that if the Twins maintain this lead after the All Star Break, the front office will go out and make a deal or few. There are already teams wanting to start the rebuild process.

When you look at Duffey, Theilbar and Colon, their numbers are easily replaceable with a trade or call up. The Twins are actually in a good place. Before I’m willing to say this is a strong playoff team, I’ll need to see them play better against the top teams. If we can get most of the starters back for the Yankees series, it will serve as a good gauge where the team needs to improve. If the starters can hold the Yankees down for the most part, it will be a very good sign.

[Karbo]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I would point out that had there not been a terrible throw from first base in Smith's inning he would have got out of the inning without giving up a run.  The official scoring had it a hit with an error, and then the run turned to earn runs when the next guy hit a weak hit, but had Miranda made a good throw, like Torkelson on similar play later in game made, then we get out of inning without a run allowed.  When you give teams extra outs, even when ruled hits, you will give up more runs.

I do agree we are not dominate pen, but Rocco and company has a plan, and part of that is not to overuse the top guys or overuse starters.  They plan out days in advance of who would be coming in and when normally.  Of course plans adjust on the fly but they are working their process.  Now, hopefully that gets us to playoffs, then throw that damn plan out the window in my opinion. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

I'm tired of hearing the excuses , covid , short spring training ,,,

That's the past and we're 50 games into this season  ....

Play the game the way it should be  played ,,,,  HIT  , RUN  AND THROW ....

[bunsen82]

49 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

It's always been like this. Even in 87 and 91 there were maybe 2-3 reliable relievers.

I think the real problem is that the starters need to go deeper into games. This will cover a multitude of sins in the pen.

I don't think we will ever get back to the timeframe where your starter is averaging 7 innings a game like Jack Morris in 1991.  You need 4-5 solid relievers in todays game.   The game has changed quite a bit since 1987 and 1991.   If you have a pitcher throwing consistently in the 6-7 inning range you have the chance at increased injury,  and this current SP staff other than Gray hasn't shown the ability to pitch over 150 innings in a season in the last 3-4 years.   

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Nope, Rick Pitino. In Boston.

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/5-sports-figures-blame-media-problems/

 

 

I am sorry that I didn’t take the time to look up when and where Green said it I did not say that Pittino did not say it, only that Green did . It seemed appropriate to be referencing the Twin Cities and not Boston. I would be certain that plenty of other people said it before Green or Pittino. Anybody who is a target of the negativity has probably muttered it. I even thought it while reading the pages here when the Twins were 4-8

[PatPfund]

Excellent article showing a problem to work on, but... whoa. Drop a game to the Tigers, and people are jumping off cliffs.

The feed above has judged the year in multiple posts as  'a failure' (this just in; we are in first place, 4.5 games ahead of the consensus pick to run away with the division). And, yep; being in first place at the start of June means the Twins are delivering on their promise to field a competitive team.

Suggestions are there to release Pagan; dude has seven saves as part of a split closer situation, an ERA in the low 2s, and has regained a LOT more control (one walk in the last 7 games) without the entirely made up stat of trading walks for hits (his WHIP is 1.09 over the last seven games). He is NOT part of the bullpen's current issues. 

There is even some Berrios angst saying we didn't improve much adding Gray to replace Jose. Please. Gray is twice the pitcher Berrios has been over their careers (more than twice if you go by WAR), and three times the pitcher Berrios has been this year (-.5 WAR to Gray's .9).

All of which doesn't cover up the issues on this team. To be competitive long term, they have to get healthy, because a more budget-ey roster needs its big players on the field to win over time. Correa, Buxton (who should be on the IL right now so he can GET healthy), Arraez, Gray, and Polanco are all tough to replace for more than a few games. And we definitely are missing Ryan and Winder; those are two non-smoke-and-mirror pitchers whose absence hurts both the rotation and the 'pen.

While I do agree with Nick about the bullpen, the idea of trading everyday player prospects for a reliever (especially the mentioned middling RP from Milwaukee) is overboard. The bigger longer term issue here is starting pitching, and if we are shipping prospects, that's what I'd want them to go for. (Montas, sure, but if the As are still asking a price nobody in MLB has touched yet, there will be others.) Making the rotation stronger strengthens the 'pen in two ways; by reducing the innings load, and by pushing displaced starters into the 'pen.

 

 

[Blyleven2011]

I've read all the post by members  ...

Yes we need upgrades in bullpens  and let starters go longer in their starts if on their game of course ...

What I want to mention to the twins fans is ...

BASEBALL IS A BUSINESS ,  the love of Money  is more important to them than being competitive in the playoffs (  ALL AT THE EXPENSE OF THE TWINS FANS ,  do they really care about us ) ,,,, 

Management is getting everything they want during the season so far with competitive baseball  and they are hopeful that this competitive baseball  once summer arrives will draw the fans  to stadium ... 

DOUBLEHEADER  about to start , I got to go 

[rwilfong86]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 But I'd stress that the F.O. can't wait until the deadline.  They need to reinforce the bullpen sooner rather than later.  

I tried to tell someone this on another page and they weren't comprehending that you can't wait until the wheels fall off to make moves. 

[h2oface]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

............And as long as we continue to play teams below the .400 winning percentage line, it will keep us in the hunt, but considering we STILL have only played 8 games against teams that are over .500 (and are 2-6 against them), there is no way to know if it will hold up for another 113 games.  Yes, there is a plan.........but is it a good plan?  Stay tuned.

 

Currently, 5-6, actually, against teams >.500 after today's first game, but that is a stat with a lot of inconsistency, as it does not take into account what the teams records were when they actually played! It uses current records, so it can change a lot day to day, game to game even, throughout the season as the other teams go above and below .500 over the course of the season. Also, I am never quite sure if the > in >.500 really means "greater than or equal to .500", or truly greater, or over .500, and leaving the .500 teams out.

I totally agree about the "plan" seeming to mean more than winning, though. I also like that there are only 7 teams after the first game of the double header today, Tuesday, that have won 30 or more games, and the Twins are the 7th. I hope we bolster up and spend, and not waste the start, and make the team more competitive for a possible postseason run. It isn't just the pen that is on the brink of disaster. The starting rotation is pretty damn suspect as well, and the pitching in St Paul (including Sands. who is being called upon for a spot start, and his AAA numbers are even worse than his SSS MLB line) has been pretty horrible.

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, Will Goodwin said:

Nick - help me understand one point: if our bullpen's WAR is very low, their WPA is very high, does this mean that they've been good circumstantially and in high-leverage, but poor overall stats?

Basically, yes. WPA is a pure measure of situational outcomes, with a lot of detail missing -- you get tons of credit for protecting a 1-run lead in the 9th, even if you faced the bottom of the lineup and they all hit rockets to the warning track. 

Wins Above Replacement is all about expected outcomes -- it's influenced by Ks, BBs, and HRs, and less by batted-ball variance. It is, from my view, far more predictive than WPA and usually more predictive than mainstream stats like ERA. Which is not to say it's perfect. I probably wouldn't have written this article if the gap between these two metrics were not so utterly dramatic. 

[Mark G]

9 hours ago, h2oface said:

Currently, 5-6, actually, against teams >.500 after today's first game, but that is a stat with a lot of inconsistency, as it does not take into account what the teams records were when they actually played! It uses current records, so it can change a lot day to day, game to game even, throughout the season as the other teams go above and below .500 over the course of the season. Also, I am never quite sure if the > in >.500 really means "greater than or equal to .500", or truly greater, or over .500, and leaving the .500 teams out.

I totally agree about the "plan" seeming to mean more than winning, though. I also like that there are only 7 teams after the first game of the double header today, Tuesday, that have won 30 or more games, and the Twins are the 7th. I hope we bolster up and spend, and not waste the start, and make the team more competitive for a possible postseason run. It isn't just the pen that is on the brink of disaster. The starting rotation is pretty damn suspect as well, and the pitching in St Paul (including Sands. who is being called upon for a spot start, and his AAA numbers are even worse than his SSS MLB line) has been pretty horrible.

So, can I officially go back to 2-6 again?    

I was using a couple of factors in that figure; first, the fact they were below .500 when we played them and have been below most of the season from there as well.  Two, I was referring to teams that clearly and consistently have winning records and are considered winning teams.  As of today, and throughout the first part of the season, Chicago just hasn't shown that yet.  Hence the position on the quality of the competition.  And while it is great they have won 30 this early, the quality of the competition, again, makes one wonder how good that record really is.  Time will tell, and by August we will have a much better grasp on how good we really are.  But for now, we have played 25 games against below .400 teams and 33 total against. .420 and below.   And only 8 against teams that, at this point (Chicago up in the air right now), are legitimate playoff caliber contenders.  How can that possibly give us a gauge on how we stack up against the playoff caliber teams, or if we are truly in that category?  I know the double header is just a blip on the screen, but Detroit threw 8 pitchers at us and 7 of them combined to throw 13 innings of no earned runs.  If Detroit's pitching  was that good, would they be below .400 again this year?  I am just saying I have no idea how good we are, and how good the "plan" is; in the FO, in the way lineups are put out, and in the way the BP is used.  As I have been known to say, stay tuned.  

[Mark G]

17 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The issue here is that management does not feel comfortable letting any pitchers go more than twice through the batting order.  For that reason, they proactively pull them which causes us to cycle through relievers and stressing out the BP.  You could say it is working to a degree as we are in first place but this is not a long-term solution.  I see two answers.

1. We need more quality starters that can go more than twice through the batting order to get 7 or 8 innings from them.  Think Dodgers or Astros.  Not an easy task.

2. The league should permanently expand rosters to 27 or 28 as the hitting is catching up with pitching and not allowing many teams at all to get their starters past 5 or 6 innings.

You had me all the way until bullet point 2.  Doesn't 2 pretty much cancel out 1?  And if you accomplished 1, why would you need 2?  I am a 1 man all the way.  If we ever do another roster expansion, have it be for a bigger and more flexible bench, not a bullpen full of pitchers that otherwise would still be in the minors.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

You had me all the way until bullet point 2.  Doesn't 2 pretty much cancel out 1?  And if you accomplished 1, why would you need 2?  I am a 1 man all the way.  If we ever do another roster expansion, have it be for a bigger and more flexible bench, not a bullpen full of pitchers that otherwise would still be in the minors.  

Sorry, I should have been clear that my take was EITHER 1 OR 2 not both.

[SwainZag]

21 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I tried to tell someone this on another page and they weren't comprehending that you can't wait until the wheels fall off to make moves. 

The issue is teams usually do not start trading off pieces until July.  It's much more of a buyers market when things have settled a little more and there are more teams to bid on your commodities.  You can tell all the people you want that you think the Twins should make trades now, but that doesn't mean there are going to be trade partners out there right now.

 

[rwilfong86]

32 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

The issue is teams usually do not start trading off pieces until July.  It's much more of a buyers market when things have settled a little more and there are more teams to bid on your commodities.  You can tell all the people you want that you think the Twins should make trades now, but that doesn't mean there are going to be trade partners out there right now.

 

No but you can be active in making calls.

[SwainZag]

4 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

No but you can be active in making calls.

For all we know they have been making calls.  All i am saying is pre-July trades are pretty rare and wringing your hands over the team not making any is pretty futile. 

[h2oface]

While it takes at least 2 teams to trade, it is not that unusual to have significant trades in June. Sure, not a usual as the July trades, and with the ridiculous amount of teams that can now qualify for the playoffs, more teams should be taking longer to enter the trade market now, but it can and does happen. Early birds can catch a worm sometimes. It seems our guys like to wait and scavenge off what is left, but maybe they will surprise us. I think the homers think our farm is way better than the rest of baseball does, however. 

Here is a bit of history, and not the complete list, by any means.

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-june-trades-in-mlb-history

[Riverbrian]

On 5/31/2022 at 10:40 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The issue here is that management does not feel comfortable letting any pitchers go more than twice through the batting order.  For that reason, they proactively pull them which causes us to cycle through relievers and stressing out the BP.  You could say it is working to a degree as we are in first place but this is not a long-term solution.  I see two answers.

1. We need more quality starters that can go more than twice through the batting order to get 7 or 8 innings from them.  Think Dodgers or Astros.  Not an easy task.

2. The league should permanently expand rosters to 27 or 28 as the hitting is catching up with pitching and not allowing many teams at all to get their starters past 5 or 6 innings.

I could be wrong and I haven't researched it but I believe I'm willing to make a blind wager that you will find very few pitchers in 2022 who average over 6 IP per start. Maybe a handful... 10? across the entire league would be guess. 

 

This isn't a Twins management thing... it's an everybody's management thing.    

 

[Mark G]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I could be wrong and I haven't researched it but I believe I'm willing to make a blind wager that you will find very few pitchers in 2022 who average over 6 IP per start. Maybe a handful... 10? across the entire league would be guess. 

 

This isn't a Twins management thing... it's an everybody's management thing.    

 

You know, I was listening to an economist on one of the business channels a few months back, and he was asked why the stock market was so much more volatile recently with such large swings up and down.  He explained that the large traders, hedge funds, pension plans, billionaires, etc., all did it by computer now.  So when a trend starts either buying or selling the computer will pick up on it and join in, so as not to get left out of the trend.  A sort of group think in stock trading.  Now sometimes that would work out for the best, and sometimes not, hence the huge swings from day to day.

My long winded point is that just because everyone follows a trend doesn't always make it a good trend.   Each staff is different, and should be handled differently.  This is one area where group think can be counter productive.  When you find a horse, ride him, and the goal should be a stable of horses, not a barn full of long relievers.