Twins #1 catcher?

[bighat]

Imagine the Twins are opening up a playoff series today against Tampa. You're Rocco Baldelli. Who's your starting catcher?

Exactly. It's Sanchez and it's not even close.

Sanchez is batting .231 with 4 HR and 21 RBI.  He's got an OPS of .720 and his Hard-Hit % is 49.5.

Ryan Jeffers is batting .198 with 3 HR and 12 RBI. He's got an OPS of .626 and a Hard-Hit % of 37.3.

This is not meant to criticize Jeffers, in fact Jeffers seems to make a fine complimentary catcher and his defensive WAR is 0.4 compared to Sanchez -0.2. But Jeffers hasn't thrown out a runner yet (0-13) while Sanchez has a career mark of throwing out 28% of runners attempting to steal on him.

Is there any argument here? Sanchez is 1A, and Jeffers is 1B, right? And those rankings have flipped since we started the year, haven't they? Gary's played himself into the lead spot.

[GNess]

It's a long season and Jeffers is less experienced than Sanchez,  But yes to date Sanchez has outhit Jeffers and his defense hasn't been as awful as advertised so he is 1A right now.

[Mark G]

Can't argue with a single word.  I like Jeffers as much as the next guy, and he "frames pitches" as good as anyone, I suppose, but he struggles to hit his weight and has a career, what, .286 OBP?  He appears to be made for a back up catcher on a good team, complimenting the main guy, but for now we would need to start Sanchez.  He doesn't hit for average either, but he has the pop Jeffers struggles to find.  Good assessment overall.  

[roger]

My question is why either of them is DH when not behind the plate.  Jeffers is a huge disappointment and should be playing every third day, at most.  IMO, catcher is their #1 problem to fix come winter, both on the Twins and depth in the organization.  Maybe that top college catcher people are talking about will be there for them when the Twins pick next month.

[TeJayDubz]

No way we issue a qualifying offer to Sanchez, but I wouldn't be opposed to locking him up for a couple more years if he continues his current production and the moneys right. I agree that his defense hasn't been nearly as bad as advertised, and for some reason I just feel comfortable with him coming to the plate in big situations. A lot more than Jeffers. Not to mention he's a double machine as of late.

[FlyingFinn]

Can any of the Twins minor league catchers both play great defense and hit half-way decent? Seems like the ones that are hitting real good like Isola and Camargo can't seem to throw anyone out. Now that is just my impression. I can't find their actual stats and someone correct me if I'm wrong. Then we have the Godoy types who are great on defense but can't hit a lick.

Jeffers will lose value in the near future when robo umps call balls and strikes as I think he is the best at framing pitches.

[PatPfund]

3 hours ago, roger said:

My question is why either of them is DH when not behind the plate.  Jeffers is a huge disappointment and should be playing every third day, at most.  IMO, catcher is their #1 problem to fix come winter, both on the Twins and depth in the organization.  Maybe that top college catcher people are talking about will be there for them when the Twins pick next month.

Jair Camargo has thrown out about a third of base steal attempts over his minor league career. Alex Isola (in less time) has thrown out 13%. You can find their stats in these links:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camarg000jai

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=isola-000ale

Edited May 29, 2022 by PatPfund
Freakin' 'there'? Really?

[PatPfund]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Can any of the Twins minor league catchers both play great defense and hit half-way decent? Seems like the ones that are hitting real good like Isola and Camargo can't seem to throw anyone out. Now that is just my impression. I can't find their actual stats and someone correct me if I'm wrong. Then we have the Godoy types who are great on defense but can't hit a lick.

Jeffers will lose value in the near future when robo umps call balls and strikes as I think he is the best at framing pitches.

Oops! Meant to quote you instead of roger on the post above. Camargo is actually pretty good at throwing people out.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't think we have to designate either catcher as #1.

[tony&rodney]

Trade for Rortvedt?

[Dman]

17 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Jair Camargo has thrown out about a third of base steal attempts over his minor league career. Alex Isola (in less time) has thrown out 13%. You can find their stats in these links:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camarg000jai

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=isola-000ale

I am beginning to be an Isola believer.  I liked what he has done at every level but he has really picked it up a notch this year.  K rate is only about 20% and his BA is just under .300.  He has a very balanced approach which will serve him well as he moves up.  I don't know how good he is defensively but he appears close to ready offensively.  Hope they bump him up to AAA to get exposed to even better pitchers.

I am currently not a believer in Camargo's bat.  He has a 30% K rate and rarely walks. His slugging percentage is really good but the lack of plate discipline, plus aggressive approach will most likely get exposed at the higher levels.  He is a catcher though so offense is generally less of a concern but IMO I think they let him work out the kinks for a while yet.

[roger]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Jair Camargo has thrown out about a third of base steal attempts over his minor league career. Alex Isola (in less time) has thrown out 13%. You can find their stats in these links:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camarg000jai

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=isola-000ale

I know both of those guys are playing well.  Maybe Seth or someone else would know if either is a legit prospect that could potentially be a future starter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There were a total of 2,214 bases stolen in 2021 out of 2429 games played, or less than one stolen base per game.

on the other hand there are on average 140 pitches thrown per game.

a catcher with good arm who can throw base stealers out impacts approximately 1 to 3 outcomes per game, but a good pitch framer (or bad) impacts dozens of outcomes per game, potentially 3-4 outs per game, maybe more. Stolen bases per season are trending down, pitches per game are trending up.

a good pitch framer is way more valuable than a good arm.

as evidenced by the games caught, Jeffers is as the vastly superior framer has caught 28 games to Sanchez’s 19. Jeffers is a top 10 catcher by OAA vs Sanchez is in the 25-35 range (league average)

Jeffers is #1 and should be

[Craig Arko]

Gondor has no #1 catcher, Gondor needs no #1 catcher.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Jeffers is #1 and should be

Playing some where else.?

[mikelink45]

We do not have a number one catcher or a number 2.  We hardly have a catcher, but time may change that - I hope it does. 

[Doctor Gast]

I don't like Jeffer's arm and he's having a tough time w/ his bat but I prefer Jeffers over Sanchez because his better defense & the way he handles the pitchers. Not crazy about either,

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't like Jeffer's arm and he's having a tough time w/ his bat but I prefer Jeffers over Sanchez because his better defense & the way he handles the pitchers. Not crazy about either,

Better defense?

Caught stealing:  Jeffers - 7% : Sanchez - 14%

Wild Pitch:  Jeffers 5: Sanchez 4

Stolen bases : Jeffers 14: Sanchez 12

Even Stevens on passed balls: 2

 

[Rosterman]

Where is Willians Astudillo when you truly need him?

Seriously, always seems to be so many former catchers playing elsewhere who once did time with the Twins. Castro, Suzuki, Garver, Rortvedt, Herrmann, Centeno, Graterol, Telis - plus Hicks, Berman and Navaretto all in the minors.

Not sure who we would really want back from the list.

Drew Butera finally retired!

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade for Rortvedt?

While entertaining, poor Rortvedt has been hurt all year. He won't be playing at the MLB level for another couple months at least after having knee surgery.

[bean5302]

Jeffers doesn't look like an MLB caliber starter at this point, and while he hasn't had enough plate appearances to close the book by any means, those plate appearances are definitely starting to accumulate enough to be concerned about his potential.

Gary Sanchez has enough of a track record to know what he is. An above average value hitter with below average defense at catcher. He's good enough to be a starter if his catcher framing improvement isn't an aberration or robo umps are used.

Since the Twins officially have nothing in the pipeline promising for catcher and Jeffers is very iffy on being valuable as a starter, I wouldn't be surprised to see them extend Sanchez.

[bighat]

21 hours ago, roger said:

My question is why either of them is DH when not behind the plate. 

I've had the same question since Day 1.

Now with Sanchez, I could see the Twins using him as the DH in a pinch - for example, if someone got injured or needed a day off, something like that. Jeffers, on the other hand, should NEVER be DH'ing and seems to be fairly routinely getting the call there.

During the Twins' "lean years" in the mid 2010s, they'd often have their DH hitting 8th or 9th. I always thought that was so ominous. Then Nelson Cruz came along and the Twins had their DH hitting 4th and everything looked correct. Well, today we're back to having our DH hit 8th or 9th again, and 80% of the time it's the off-duty catcher, both of whom are hitting sub .230.

Bad bad bad.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Jeffers doesn't look like an MLB caliber starter at this point, and while he hasn't had enough plate appearances to close the book by any means, those plate appearances are definitely starting to accumulate enough to be concerned about his potential.

Gary Sanchez has enough of a track record to know what he is. An above average value hitter with below average defense at catcher. He's good enough to be a starter if his catcher framing improvement isn't an aberration or robo umps are used.

Since the Twins officially have nothing in the pipeline promising for catcher and Jeffers is very iffy on being valuable as a starter, I wouldn't be surprised to see them extend Sanchez.

Sanchez’s wRC+ is 105. It’s weighted by field and position and half of his at bats have been as DH, but it doesn’t appear that his hitting has been significantly better than the average catcher.

Jeffers’ wRC+ is 88, so it’s safe to say he has been slightly to significantly below average with the bat.

I think it’s fair to say that Sanchez hits significantly better than Jeffers

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Sanchez’s wRC+ is 105. It’s weighted by field and position and half of his at bats have been as DH, but it doesn’t appear that his hitting has been significantly better than the average catcher.

Jeffers’ wRC+ is 88, so it’s safe to say he has been slightly to significantly below average with the bat.

I think it’s fair to say that Sanchez hits significantly better than Jeffers

Sanchez started off slow.  The last three weeks his wRC+ is 129.  I guess the question is will he continue to hit like he has lately because the difference between them lately has been more pronounced.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Sanchez started off slow.  The last three weeks his wRC+ is 129.  I guess the question is will he continue to hit like he has lately because the difference between them lately has been more pronounced.

Right, and quarter of a season is small sample, three weeks is a hot streak…

also, Catcher’s fielding matters more than any other position. Sanchez this season hasn’t been the butcher he has been, career to date, also very small sample. 18 games isn’t near enough to draw a conclusion different than history.

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Right, and quarter of a season is small sample, three weeks is a hot streak…

also, Catcher’s fielding matters more than any other position. Sanchez this season hasn’t been the butcher he has been, career to date, also very small sample. 18 games isn’t near enough to draw a conclusion different than history.

He was great offensively his 1st two years but he has not been that guy for a few years now.   It would be nice for this hot streak to last all year but I would not bet on it.  I am hoping they draft a college catcher but the spot is most likely filled by a free agent next year.   Milwaukee probably won't pay up for Narvaez. 

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We do not have a number one catcher or a number 2.  We hardly have a catcher, but time may change that - I hope it does. 

Have you looked at catcher stats on other teams? I think you haven't, given your first sentence.

I'm glad the FO has more patience than many of you. Jeffers hasn't even played 162 games in the majors yet. (that's not aimed at the OP, as he's talking this year, but others).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

Better defense?

Caught stealing:  Jeffers - 7% : Sanchez - 14%

Wild Pitch:  Jeffers 5: Sanchez 4

Stolen bases : Jeffers 14: Sanchez 12

Even Stevens on passed balls: 2

 

Sanchez has caught 19 games - 12 stolen bases on 19 games is .63. Jeffers has caught 29 games- 14 stolen bases on 29 games is .48. 
 

Same with wild pitches 4 on 19 is .21 vs 5 on 29 is .17.

2/19 vs 2/29

Sanchez hasn’t been the butcher we think of, but Jeffers is vastly superior behind the plate 

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Have you looked at catcher stats on other teams? I think you haven't, given your first sentence.

I'm glad the FO has more patience than many of you. Jeffers hasn't even played 162 games in the majors yet. (that's not aimed at the OP, as he's talking this year, but others).

I guess fangraphs have not looked at the same stats that you have - they have us ranked 20th at catcher in positional rankings.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I guess fangraphs have not looked at the same stats that you have - they have us ranked 20th at catcher in positional rankings.

Which would imply they have a number 2 catcher....which was denied in the first sentence.