Deadline Trade of Correa

[Mike Sixel]

nm

[prouster]

46 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Ignore Cheppit -  look we can all have strong opinions - there is way too many games to play and likely changes in the standings to have an answer right now.  As much as I can be fairly confident they want to trade them, I can also acknowledge they may not have a buyer willing to purchase at the prices they are willing to trade, or that the fan base as evidenced by this thread would be so upset by the trade.  Some want answers now and specifics and are not willing to let this play out.   He states players don't get good returns,  when obviously we got a good return for Cruz,  we wouldn't be where we currently are without Ryan.   Ultimately its managements decision and whether they prioritize increasing this years chances at winning a WS or maximizing the chance in the future.  

It’s not a desire for answers that’s causing people to disagree with you. It’s the absurdity of a contending team trading their starting shortstop who is arguably the best player at his position on the planet Earth. 

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Ignore Cheppit -  look we can all have strong opinions - there is way too many games to play and likely changes in the standings to have an answer right now.  As much as I can be fairly confident they want to trade them, I can also acknowledge they may not have a buyer willing to purchase at the prices they are willing to trade, or that the fan base as evidenced by this thread would be so upset by the trade.  Some want answers now and specifics and are not willing to let this play out.   He states players don't get good returns,  when obviously we got a good return for Cruz,  we wouldn't be where we currently are without Ryan.   Ultimately its managements decision and whether they prioritize increasing this years chances at winning a WS or maximizing the chance in the future.  

So far today I've provided mathematical facts on what it'd take for the Twins to be 9-10 games back in the division at the deadline as that's what that poster had suggested as the cutoff point for trading Correa. Then I provided actual trades of actual star position players similar to Correa over the last few years.

You, on the other hand, have provided yet another example of a trade that is in no way relevant to the one you're suggesting there's a 75% chance they'd make. The Twins, like the Rays in your awful Archer comparison, were out of it by the deadline last year. And, yes, Ryan has been great, but Ryan was not a top 100 prospect or top of the Rays system prospect. You're claiming the Yankees would trade one of their elite SS prospects for a Correa rental when they refused to trade them for far more control of Montas and Olson.

The problem with suggesting that the person ignore me is 2 fold. 1. That person agrees with me and isn't even suggesting the same things you are, but you're so desperate to find any sort of support for your stance that you think they're on the same page as you. They have been very clear that they wouldn't, and don't think the Twins will, trade Correa if they're still leading, or close to leading, the division. 2. I'm giving facts and real life happenings while you're giving your opinion. You're entitled to your opinion, but your opinions are in no way comparable to the mathematical facts of what it'd take for the Twins to fall out of the division race by the deadline or the facts of what trades have taken place in the past. Your opinions don't outweigh my facts even if you're like them to.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So far today I've provided mathematical facts on what it'd take for the Twins to be 9-10 games back in the division at the deadline as that's what that poster had suggested as the cutoff point for trading Correa. Then I provided actual trades of actual star position players similar to Correa over the last few years.

You, on the other hand, have provided yet another example of a trade that is in no way relevant to the one you're suggesting there's a 75% chance they'd make. The Twins, like the Rays in your awful Archer comparison, were out of it by the deadline last year. And, yes, Ryan has been great, but Ryan was not a top 100 prospect or top of the Rays system prospect. You're claiming the Yankees would trade one of their elite SS prospects for a Correa rental when they refused to trade them for far more control of Montas and Olson.

The problem with suggesting that the person ignore me is 2 fold. 1. That person agrees with me and isn't even suggesting the same things you are, but you're so desperate to find any sort of support for your stance that you think they're on the same page as you. They have been very clear that they wouldn't, and don't think the Twins will, trade Correa if they're still leading, or close to leading, the division. 2. I'm giving facts and real life happenings while you're giving your opinion. You're entitled to your opinion, but your opinions are in no way comparable to the mathematical facts of what it'd take for the Twins to fall out of the division race by the deadline or the facts of what trades have taken place in the past. Your opinions don't outweigh my facts even if you're like them to.

You missed Turner last year.  Also Paul Goldschmidt, Evan Longoria, prince Fielder,  Robinson Cano ect. 

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, prouster said:

It’s not a desire for answers that’s causing people to disagree with you. It’s the absurdity of a contending team trading their starting shortstop who is arguably the best player at his position on the planet Earth. 

My 75% chance fully encompasses the team under performing what they have currently done. I think pitching will get more taxed and we will start to struggle as we face stiffer competition. I am glad the team is doing well, however in its current construction I don’t see this as 95-99 team.  More like an 84-89 team.  So then it comes down to will they still do the trade if the team is in that 100 win range.  

[prouster]

42 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

You missed Turner last year.  Also Paul Goldschmidt, Evan Longoria, prince Fielder,  Robinson Cano ect. 

You're dug in, so I'm not going to go round and round. But how were the Nationals doing at the deadline last year? What were the circumstances of the Diamondbacks, Rays, and Brewers at the times of these trades? How many steroid tests did Cano fail when Seattle traded him?

[bunsen82]

20 minutes ago, prouster said:

You're dug in, so I'm not going to go round and round. But how were the Nationals doing at the deadline last year? What were the circumstances of the Diamondbacks, Rays, and Brewers at the times of these trades? How many steroid tests did Cano fail when Seattle traded him?

The last argument was poor return on elite field players, nothing regarding how the teams were doing. 

[Drunk_Goose]

Can we lock this thread??

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

You missed Turner last year.  Also Paul Goldschmidt, Evan Longoria, prince Fielder,  Robinson Cano ect. 

Turner was part of a bigger trade deal from an awful team to a contending team. Not relevant to a contending Twins team or as a 1 superstar player trade since he was actually the 2nd most important player in the trade. Paul Goldschmidt also traded from awful team to good team, and that trade was in December not at the deadline. So, like all of your trade comparisons so far, not relevant. Evan Longoria was a below average player when he got traded and that was also in December so, again, not relevant. Prince Fielder got traded to get out from under a 7 year deal (hint: that also means he wasn't a rental) and that trade was in November. So, sorry, not relevant. It was also 9 years ago. Robinson Cano was traded in a larger package, had multiple years left on his deal, and was traded in, you guessed it, December! So, again, not. A. Relevant. Trade.

 

Edit to add: Longoria was also not a rental and Tampa paid part of his salary for the next 5 seasons.

[bunsen82]

Look I am finished with this, it really comes down to time and we will see what happens in around 10 weeks. 

[heresthething]

I said this in another thread and it's worth repeating.  This article provides great insight on the strategy this FO has for sustainable success.  

https://www.twinkietown.com/2022/2/6/22659344/mlb-minnesota-twins-offseason-2022-and-strategy-homegrown-pitching-not-a-rebuild-cleveland-tampa-bay

This team doesn't have the pitching to even get to the ALCS, let alone the WS.  I think the FO realizes this and traded Rogers.  Why they went for what they did...not really sure WTH they were thinking but the intent of the trade fits the strategy.

Who on this board wasn't astonished/completely surprised at what they got for Cruz?  I'm not saying they WILL do this but I think the % chance is much higher than many think it is.  If CC is playing up to his ability it isn't only playoff teams that will be in the mix for CC, someone will trade and sign him long term.  And no I don't know who that will be and I don't think anyone else does either.  And for anyone that has tried to narrow who they could trade with a 3 team trade just blows any of that logic out of the water right?  Who knows, maybe teams have finally gotten wise to these absurd 10 year deals...on second thought.....some team will do it.  

Maybe it's the best option to play it out but ya gotta listen to those offers because they're gonna get them and it could be a 3 team trade that does it. 

Having said all that I love watching him play and really wish the Twins could find a way to keep him but that isn't the Twins way.   

[by jiminy]

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse. What if they traded him for pitching? They could get someone who could help right now, and maybe even had a year or two more on his contract instead of a few months. But even when considering just the effect this year, the equation is, does the drop off in production at shortstop outweigh the improvement on the mound?  (Or at some other position that has a drastic underperformance due to injury.)

The drop off from Correa to Lewis would be real but not catastrophic. And if he has been tearing it up in AAA, gets a promotion, and is hitting great as a utility player, while Correa is just okay, there might not be much of a drop off at all. But in any case it would probably not sink their playoff chances.

Now imagine the bullpen is getting lit up on a regular basis, and it is costing the team games. The rotation is fine, the hitting and fielding is fine, but no one but Duran could be trusted against the Yankees. Or suppose Duran gets hurt. (I literally just knocked on wood.)

I think there is a very strong case that the team could be a lot stronger with a solid bullpen, or a solid starter, if that is what they need, and Lewis at short, than Correa on a lame duck contract and a bullpen full of matches.

Add to that another year or two of team control and I would definitely be taking calls about Correa. All it takes is an injury to a contender or would-be contender and the return could push us over the top.

[prouster]

34 minutes ago, by jiminy said:

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse.

Because he’s the best player at the most important position in baseball. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, heresthething said:

I said this in another thread and it's worth repeating.  This article provides great insight on the strategy this FO has for sustainable success.  

https://www.twinkietown.com/2022/2/6/22659344/mlb-minnesota-twins-offseason-2022-and-strategy-homegrown-pitching-not-a-rebuild-cleveland-tampa-bay

This team doesn't have the pitching to even get to the ALCS, let alone the WS.  I think the FO realizes this and traded Rogers.  Why they went for what they did...not really sure WTH they were thinking but the intent of the trade fits the strategy.

Who on this board wasn't astonished/completely surprised at what they got for Cruz?  I'm not saying they WILL do this but I think the % chance is much higher than many think it is.  If CC is playing up to his ability it isn't only playoff teams that will be in the mix for CC, someone will trade and sign him long term.  And no I don't know who that will be and I don't think anyone else does either.  And for anyone that has tried to narrow who they could trade with a 3 team trade just blows any of that logic out of the water right?  Who knows, maybe teams have finally gotten wise to these absurd 10 year deals...on second thought.....some team will do it.  

Maybe it's the best option to play it out but ya gotta listen to those offers because they're gonna get them and it could be a 3 team trade that does it. 

Having said all that I love watching him play and really wish the Twins could find a way to keep him but that isn't the Twins way.   

I agree with the value proposition you have brought up here.  Who here would trade 6 years of Joe Ryan vs 2 months of Correa?  It's pretty hard to argue the 6 years is much better asset management.  It's also hard to argue Correa would not bring an equivalent or better package than Cruz.   However, the relative strength of the team does play into the decision.  I also don't agree with those who say there is zero chance the twins trade him if they have a good shot at a playoff spot.  What if they play 500 ball between now and the playoffs but the rest of the division is still sub 500.  Yes, they would have an excellent shot at making the playoffs but a very meager chance of doling anything in the playoffs.  That changes the likelihood of him being traded.

The performance of specific players also impacts the decision.  What if Gray or Ryan or Gray and Ryan get injured in the last couple weeks of July?  What if Urshela is hitting more like 2019 than 2021 and Larnach and Celestino continue to look great.  That would mitigate any gain associated with bringing up Lewis.  What if Correa has an OPS of 750 and someone is still willing to give a Ryan like return?  What if Lewis has an 1100 OPS at AAA.  Could we reasonable conclude the drop-off would be negligible?  The decision should take all of these things and more into account.  The zero chance position without these considerations is that of excited fans which is fun but also a decision practice that is not good for the team.   

I also don't agree that non-playoff teams would be interested and if they were the return would not be great.  Those teams will just take their shot next winter.  

[Squirrel]

9 hours ago, heresthething said:

I said this in another thread and it's worth repeating.  This article provides great insight on the strategy this FO has for sustainable success.  

https://www.twinkietown.com/2022/2/6/22659344/mlb-minnesota-twins-offseason-2022-and-strategy-homegrown-pitching-not-a-rebuild-cleveland-tampa-bay

This team doesn't have the pitching to even get to the ALCS, let alone the WS.  I think the FO realizes this and traded Rogers.  Why they went for what they did...not really sure WTH they were thinking but the intent of the trade fits the strategy.

Who on this board wasn't astonished/completely surprised at what they got for Cruz?  I'm not saying they WILL do this but I think the % chance is much higher than many think it is.  If CC is playing up to his ability it isn't only playoff teams that will be in the mix for CC, someone will trade and sign him long term.  And no I don't know who that will be and I don't think anyone else does either.  And for anyone that has tried to narrow who they could trade with a 3 team trade just blows any of that logic out of the water right?  Who knows, maybe teams have finally gotten wise to these absurd 10 year deals...on second thought.....some team will do it.  

Maybe it's the best option to play it out but ya gotta listen to those offers because they're gonna get them and it could be a 3 team trade that does it. 

Having said all that I love watching him play and really wish the Twins could find a way to keep him but that isn't the Twins way.   

I don't think anyone has said that we wouldn't even listen to offers, because of course they will. They will listen to offers on every player on the team. But I don't think the expectation of return is as great as anyone thinks. Remember the Santana trade? They traded him to a team who wanted to sign him long-term. And we really got nothing in return. Oh sure, a couple of years of Carlos Gomez and prospects that did nothing. The lesson in that debacle was that Santana would have been more valuable to us to have him on the team one more year and let him walk than giving him up for what we got. I think the argument against trading Correa (at least its my argument) is that he is more valuable to the team now, play for the Twins, and will be if we stay positioned to make the playoffs, than he would in a trade. If we are out of contention, yes, that becomes a different discussion. Then it becomes 'What can we get and how low should we sell?'

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse. What if they traded him for pitching? They could get someone who could help right now, and maybe even had a year or two more on his contract instead of a few months. But even when considering just the effect this year, the equation is, does the drop off in production at shortstop outweigh the improvement on the mound?  (Or at some other position that has a drastic underperformance due to injury.)

The drop off from Correa to Lewis would be real but not catastrophic. And if he has been tearing it up in AAA, gets a promotion, and is hitting great as a utility player, while Correa is just okay, there might not be much of a drop off at all. But in any case it would probably not sink their playoff chances.

Now imagine the bullpen is getting lit up on a regular basis, and it is costing the team games. The rotation is fine, the hitting and fielding is fine, but no one but Duran could be trusted against the Yankees. Or suppose Duran gets hurt. (I literally just knocked on wood.)

I think there is a very strong case that the team could be a lot stronger with a solid bullpen, or a solid starter, if that is what they need, and Lewis at short, than Correa on a lame duck contract and a bullpen full of matches.

Add to that another year or two of team control and I would definitely be taking calls about Correa. All it takes is an injury to a contender or would-be contender and the return could push us over the top.

Which really good team is trading good pitching for him? Because a bad team isn't trading for him. And which playoff team has a lot of extra pitching to trade? 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse. What if they traded him for pitching? They could get someone who could help right now, and maybe even had a year or two more on his contract instead of a few months. But even when considering just the effect this year, the equation is, does the drop off in production at shortstop outweigh the improvement on the mound?  (Or at some other position that has a drastic underperformance due to injury.)

The drop off from Correa to Lewis would be real but not catastrophic. And if he has been tearing it up in AAA, gets a promotion, and is hitting great as a utility player, while Correa is just okay, there might not be much of a drop off at all. But in any case it would probably not sink their playoff chances.

Now imagine the bullpen is getting lit up on a regular basis, and it is costing the team games. The rotation is fine, the hitting and fielding is fine, but no one but Duran could be trusted against the Yankees. Or suppose Duran gets hurt. (I literally just knocked on wood.)

I think there is a very strong case that the team could be a lot stronger with a solid bullpen, or a solid starter, if that is what they need, and Lewis at short, than Correa on a lame duck contract and a bullpen full of matches.

Add to that another year or two of team control and I would definitely be taking calls about Correa. All it takes is an injury to a contender or would-be contender and the return could push us over the top.

A contender, or would-be contender, is not trading major league pitching, especially major league pitching with years of control left, for Correa. That's the entire point. Contenders add at the deadline through trading prospects for major leaguers. The Twins with Correa and some extra arms gotten by trading prospects is better than (and actually realistic) the Twins with no Correa and some extra arms. No contending team has enough pitching that they'd be willing to trade them for a Correa rental, and no non-contending team would pay for a Correa rental at all.

The argument that a non-playoff team may jump in the bidding and give up real prospects for him to make it worth the Twins dealing him is suggesting that they weren't willing to give him his 7-10 years and 30-35M per 2 months ago, but 2 months from now they'd not only be willing to do that, but they'd also be willing to give up big time prospects to do what they could've done during the offseason or during next offseason. That's not an overly logical argument.

[timothy sellner]

Totally agree - let's at least entertain offers and if we are blown away - then consider!!

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

A contender, or would-be contender, is not trading major league pitching, especially major league pitching with years of control left, for Correa. That's the entire point. Contenders add at the deadline through trading prospects for major leaguers. The Twins with Correa and some extra arms gotten by trading prospects is better than (and actually realistic) the Twins with no Correa and some extra arms. No contending team has enough pitching that they'd be willing to trade them for a Correa rental, and no non-contending team would pay for a Correa rental at all.

The argument that a non-playoff team may jump in the bidding and give up real prospects for him to make it worth the Twins dealing him is suggesting that they weren't willing to give him his 7-10 years and 30-35M per 2 months ago, but 2 months from now they'd not only be willing to do that, but they'd also be willing to give up big time prospects to do what they could've done during the offseason or during next offseason. That's not an overly logical argument.

I said I wouldn't comment anymore but this really isn't on trading Correa.  

The only team that really comes to mind that has either excess pitching or pitching prospects ready in AAA that are currently blocked and would potentially be willing to trade them as a contending team is the Padres.   Just like the Paddack trade they may trade from a position of strength to build their team.   Take in the fact their GM is a trading fanatic this wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that they use their pitching depth to trade with any team.  That they got Manea for super cheap was a boon for them.  He doesn't seem like one to overpay though.  

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

I said I wouldn't comment anymore but this really isn't on trading Correa.  

The only team that really comes to mind that has either excess pitching or pitching prospects ready in AAA that are currently blocked and would potentially be willing to trade them as a contending team is the Padres.   Just like the Paddack trade they may trade from a position of strength to build their team.   Take in the fact their GM is a trading fanatic this wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that they use their pitching depth to trade with any team.  That they got Manea for super cheap was a boon for them.  He doesn't seem like one to overpay though.  

Maybe they'll give us Fernando Tatis Jr in return. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I said I wouldn't comment anymore but this really isn't on trading Correa.  

The only team that really comes to mind that has either excess pitching or pitching prospects ready in AAA that are currently blocked and would potentially be willing to trade them as a contending team is the Padres.   Just like the Paddack trade they may trade from a position of strength to build their team.   Take in the fact their GM is a trading fanatic this wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that they use their pitching depth to trade with any team.  That they got Manea for super cheap was a boon for them.  He doesn't seem like one to overpay though.  

I don't know if your suggestion is that they'd trade excess pitching for Correa or for prospects, but I'll strongly disagree if the idea is that they'd trade it for Correa. They have Tatis Jr, Kim, and CJ Abrams for SS, they have Machado at 3B looking like the MVP this year, and Cronenworth at 2B. Their IF is set for now and the future.

I'll say I'd also be shocked to see them trade major league pitching for prospects as they're all in on winning now and not looking to the future beyond not trading their own top prospects. They're not doing anything to lower their major league talent for future assets while they battle LA and SF for the division and WS.

I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. Profar-Grisham-Myers is clearly their weak point. I don't find the Twins to be a good match there since they're counting on all their current OFers, that are worth ML pitching, to help now and in the future. Twins could trade Gordon, but he's not fetching anything more than a reliever. But I'll agree Preller is not one to be shy about making moves. Although he didn't make big moves at the deadline last year and is probably more interested in clearing Myers and/or Hosmer (although he's been good this year) off his books than any other moves right now.

[bunsen82]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I don't know if your suggestion is that they'd trade excess pitching for Correa or for prospects, but I'll strongly disagree if the idea is that they'd trade it for Correa. They have Tatis Jr, Kim, and CJ Abrams for SS, they have Machado at 3B looking like the MVP this year, and Cronenworth at 2B. Their IF is set for now and the future.

I'll say I'd also be shocked to see them trade major league pitching for prospects as they're all in on winning now and not looking to the future beyond not trading their own top prospects. They're not doing anything to lower their major league talent for future assets while they battle LA and SF for the division and WS.

I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. Profar-Grisham-Myers is clearly their weak point. I don't find the Twins to be a good match there since they're counting on all their current OFers, that are worth ML pitching, to help now and in the future. Twins could trade Gordon, but he's not fetching anything more than a reliever. But I'll agree Preller is not one to be shy about making moves. Although he didn't make big moves at the deadline last year and is probably more interested in clearing Myers and/or Hosmer (although he's been good this year) off his books than any other moves right now.

I told you I was keeping Correa out of it.  You said no team team would trade starting pitching or starting caliber pitching.  I merely stated the only team that A.  had excess pitching B.  wouldn't be afraid to use it was the Padres.  At least acknowledge they are team that has excess pitching,  up to 10 pitchers that are MLB quality or very close.   They would trade their depth pieces that will not affect this year.  I see them as willing to go all in this year.   Yes if Tatis comes back healthy after injury they are likely not interested.   

[heresthething]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I don't think anyone has said that we wouldn't even listen to offers, because of course they will. They will listen to offers on every player on the team. But I don't think the expectation of return is as great as anyone thinks. Remember the Santana trade? They traded him to a team who wanted to sign him long-term. And we really got nothing in return. Oh sure, a couple of years of Carlos Gomez and prospects that did nothing. The lesson in that debacle was that Santana would have been more valuable to us to have him on the team one more year and let him walk than giving him up for what we got. I think the argument against trading Correa (at least its my argument) is that he is more valuable to the team now, play for the Twins, and will be if we stay positioned to make the playoffs, than he would in a trade. If we are out of contention, yes, that becomes a different discussion. Then it becomes 'What can we get and how low should we sell?'

Fair point on the Santana trade debacle but the issue with that trade is it's really hard not to think Smith botched it.  Lots of ink spilled over the years lamenting how wrong that trade went.  But I get why the comparison and I agree there is plenty of room for the value to not be there.  Hopefully they don't pull the trigger for a marginal trade.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

I told you I was keeping Correa out of it.  You said no team team would trade starting pitching or starting caliber pitching.  I merely stated the only team that A.  had excess pitching B.  wouldn't be afraid to use it was the Padres.  At least acknowledge they are team that has excess pitching,  up to 10 pitchers that are MLB quality or very close.   They would trade their depth pieces that will not affect this year.  I see them as willing to go all in this year.   Yes if Tatis comes back healthy after injury they are likely not interested.   

I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. I literally said I could be convinced them trading pitching for OF help could happen.

I will point out that they had a very similar rotation last year and it completely collapsed and they missed the playoffs so I think you may be overselling their pitching depth. Musgrove is a stud (better than Ryan, but not by a ton), no doubt. But beyond that, Martinez hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2017 when he was awful (sounds like Bundy), Snell hasn't been good or healthy with them (sounds like Archer), Clevinger hasn't been healthy, Darvish hasn't lived up to the hype or contract, Manaea is very solid (sounds like Gray), Gore is a rookie (similar to Ober), and Knehr has an ERA over 7 in 8 AAA starts (Balazovic-esque one could say). Not sure where you're seeing the great depth. That's not much better than the Twins staff, other than having more recognizable names. In fact the Twins have a better ERA this year. Outside of Gore, Knehr and Wilson the Padres don't have any young pitching that's even in AA yet. Wilson is a reliever and I already pointed out Knehr's massive struggles this year.

I will acknowledge that Preller is on the edge of desperation when it comes to getting over the Dodgers hump, and that opens the door for some interesting stuff to happen. But I think you're drastically overstating the depth of their pitching. There's a reason people say you can never have too much pitching.

[Tim]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. I literally said I could be convinced them trading pitching for OF help could happen.

I will point out that they had a very similar rotation last year and it completely collapsed and they missed the playoffs so I think you may be overselling their pitching depth. Musgrove is a stud (better than Ryan, but not by a ton), no doubt. But beyond that, Martinez hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2017 when he was awful (sounds like Bundy), Snell hasn't been good or healthy with them (sounds like Archer), Clevinger hasn't been healthy, Darvish hasn't lived up to the hype or contract, Manaea is very solid (sounds like Gray), Gore is a rookie (similar to Ober), and Knehr has an ERA over 7 in 8 AAA starts (Balazovic-esque one could say). Not sure where you're seeing the great depth. That's not much better than the Twins staff, other than having more recognizable names. In fact the Twins have a better ERA this year. Outside of Gore, Knehr and Wilson the Padres don't have any young pitching that's even in AA yet. Wilson is a reliever and I already pointed out Knehr's massive struggles this year.

I will acknowledge that Preller is on the edge of desperation when it comes to getting over the Dodgers hump, and that opens the door for some interesting stuff to happen. But I think you're drastically overstating the depth of their pitching. There's a reason people say you can never have too much pitching.

There's been like 3 or 4 repots now that Snell and Darvish could be in play at the deadline so that they can clear some payroll.

If they were inclined to eat half of either of those deals I think we could get a deal done.

[Battle ur tail off]

5 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse. What if they traded him for pitching? They could get someone who could help right now, and maybe even had a year or two more on his contract instead of a few months. But even when considering just the effect this year, the equation is, does the drop off in production at shortstop outweigh the improvement on the mound?  (Or at some other position that has a drastic underperformance due to injury.)

The drop off from Correa to Lewis would be real but not catastrophic. And if he has been tearing it up in AAA, gets a promotion, and is hitting great as a utility player, while Correa is just okay, there might not be much of a drop off at all. But in any case it would probably not sink their playoff chances.

Now imagine the bullpen is getting lit up on a regular basis, and it is costing the team games. The rotation is fine, the hitting and fielding is fine, but no one but Duran could be trusted against the Yankees. Or suppose Duran gets hurt. (I literally just knocked on wood.)

I think there is a very strong case that the team could be a lot stronger with a solid bullpen, or a solid starter, if that is what they need, and Lewis at short, than Correa on a lame duck contract and a bullpen full of matches.

Add to that another year or two of team control and I would definitely be taking calls about Correa. All it takes is an injury to a contender or would-be contender and the return could push us over the top.

Here's the thing. If the Twins get towards the deadline and are looking like a lock for the playoffs, why would they dump Correa for more pitching? We have tons of prospects that can and should get moved if this is the case. 

I would prefer using those prospects to go after #1-an arm we can control for a bit and #2, the very best reliever available. 

 

If the team is in a playoff position when the deadline comes and they move him, the whole team will quit and you can forget long term deals for any youngsters you have and need or want to extend that are on the squad right now and will have options when their time comes. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Tim said:

There's been like 3 or 4 repots now that Snell and Darvish could be in play at the deadline so that they can clear some payroll.

If they were inclined to eat half of either of those deals I think we could get a deal done.

I haven't seen those, do you have some sources there? I'd think they'd be willing to trade 1 of those guys if they actually get Snell healthy and Clevinger healthy and Gore continues to look good and Martinez doesn't turn back into a pumpkin. But for the same reason the Twins starting the season with 7 rotation arms on the roster didn't mean they had excess pitching I don't think the Padres automatically have it now either. 

They've been trying to get money off the books for a while now. Myers and Hosmer are also names that are thrown around a lot. Preller is all in and I have no doubt he's willing to make moves to get them past the Dodgers this year. I'd think Snell is actually a relatively likely trade piece assuming he doesn't go on the IL again and they have their 6 other guys healthy. But he's a negative asset right now. Unless he turns it around dramatically he's not someone I want the Twins to go after unless they're not giving anything up and also getting a prospect with him. He's been injured and bad for SD. He's mostly name recognition at this point. Miguel Sano in pitcher form. Darvish would be an interesting target, though.

[Brandon]

I am fine with trading him if we can get a Hershal Walker type return (5 players and 5 draft picks)  That trade set the Cowboys up for their 3 year run.  Otherwise lets just ride the wave and have fun.  

[saviking]

Of course I 100% agree with you because I said the exact same thing on the thread about Lewis getting sent down. My reasons were:

 

* After playing Houston it gave us a yardstick to measure if we are ready for a run at the world series. I think not.

* We have a long term solution to shortstop at a cheap rate for years. Yes Correa is better than Lewis but how much better. Not 35 million better. Probably more like 10 million better. We could put most of Correa's 35 million salary to good use strengthening the team in many other positions. PLUS, we can strengthen our team further with the players we get in the trade. 

Bottom line is, we either need to come to terms with Correa before the trade deadline or we need to trade him. Having him walk after one year with no compensation in the slim hopes someone won't out big us is not acceptable. 

[Battle ur tail off]

39 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I am fine with trading him if we can get a Hershal Walker type return (5 players and 5 draft picks)  That trade set the Cowboys up for their 3 year run.  Otherwise lets just ride the wave and have fun.  

One prospect in the 75-150 range(MLB rank) and a throw in is what he is worth at the deadline. Maybe not even that. 

 

You aren't getting 5 studs back for him.