Deadline Trade of Correa

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings. 

I'm guessing you wanted to trade Jack Morris in 1991, too.

[rwilfong86]

22 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

what is less than 0%?  Isn't 0% as low as you can go?

I was being snarky. 

[rwilfong86]

6 minutes ago, twinssporto said:

It won't happen this year. Zero chance.

In fact, I think Correa likes its here and will stay through at least year 2.

Let's hope so

[Richie the Rally Goat]

44 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

I think this is a good question, but like others, I think they need more Correas not fewer.

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

   I stand by there is a better than 75% chance Correa gets traded, 

 

The odds that Correa is on this team in 2023 are higher than the odds he gets traded in 2022.

[howeda7]

2 hours ago, High heat said:

As long as we are in the division race ( at this point there is almost no chance we fall out by ASG) we wont trade Correa.  Yes he would bring a prospect hall but the club house presence and the opportunity to play in the playoff as a division winner there is no way he is moved.  

 

I dont believe we are championship team but you have to get that 0-18 off our back and if you get in the playoff you have a change, especially in baseball.  

 

 

Trading Correa while in 1st place would be unforgivable. The Pohlads should sell the team and Favline should resign in shame if they even consider it.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I think the premise is the team isn't really a World Series contender so why not trade an elite player for assets that might make the team stronger for next year and the years after in the hopes that the Twins are better positioned to win it all in 2023. 

The flaw in that theory though is that this team won't have devastating injuries next year and or players won't regress etc. etc.  If 2021 taught us anything it is that the best laid plans can go awry for various reasons.  I get his concept and Tampa dabbles in that type of trading but it could cost you a WS title because Atlanta reminds us you never know how things are going to play out in the end.

When do you decide they are WS contenders?  What do they need to be there?  If you keep trading away your top players because you want to be better the next time you can make the playoffs it will never end.  Also, being the best team on paper never means winning the WS.  Both Twins WS we were not favored going into the season, going into the playoffs, or going into the WS.  The few times we were favored in the playoffs we did nothing.  Plenty of teams get hot in the playoffs and carry that to winning and the team everyone thought would win does not. 

How many years have Dodgers been the favorite to win the ship?  How many years have they won it? Dodgers on paper have been the best team in baseball for years.  1 ship from that time.  They keep adding at deadline to help them out, but still 1 ship.  Last year they got Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, they did not even make the WS.  

My point is what people think a championship team looks like may not be what actually wins it. Baseball is a crazy game where the under dog in a series wins it a decent amount of time.  It is not like basketball where the better team will win the series 9 out of 10 times.  In baseball the better team will only win a series like 6 or 7 out of 10 times, when the teams are close in talent, like in playoffs, not in the regular season. 

For years the Dodgers had the best pitcher in baseball, or at least top 5, and he would have some terrible post-season starts.  He would have a few great ones mixed in, but compared to what he did during the season he would lay some big eggs.  Every pitcher has off games, you can have the top 4 starters in all of baseball and that does not mean you will series.  You can have the top 9 hitters in all of baseball and that does not mean you will win the series. 

My point is, you will never know if your team will win it all no matter how they look on paper, you just play the games and hope it shakes out in your favor. 

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Then what about the Indians they weren't competing?  You can blow your horn all you want.  You admit they aren't an elite team with an extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs so why not trade for players that will likely help us when our window is actually open?

I never said they had an "extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs." I said I think they need some extra arms to improve their chances, that's not the same thing. My stance on the playoffs is that you get in and take your chances. The Twins have 2 WS titles and were by no means "elite" teams those years and were expected to get bounced in the first round even after they made the playoffs. I'm sure glad they didn't take the chance to improve their team down the road and trade guys away those years.

As for the Indians, as was pointed out above, they were dumping payroll. They dropped $30M in payroll from 2019 to 2020. They had extra motivation to move their mid-rotation arm for multiple OFers where they had huge holes. That trade wasn't made to improve their chances when their "window was actually open," it was to move a guy who was a clubhouse problem and was at best their 3rd best starter, but more likely 4th best arm. Again, not comparable to Carlos Correa being the Twins' superstar, platinum glove winning SS.

When is their window actually going to be open? What if Lewis can't maintain a 162 OPS+ over more than 11 games? I don't think you're going to find many people who think he's ever going to be a platinum glove winner so he's not catching CC defensively. I'm a huge Royce believer and want him up now, but I'm not even close to suggesting he's a sure thing already. What if Kirilloff's wrist never gets better? What if Miranda never hits like he did in 2021? What if Larnach starts flailing away at breaking stuff again? What if Buxton gets hurt each of the next 7 years? What if the starters in the system don't work out? What is their "actual" window? 2023? 2024? 2027? If it's 2023 and/or 2024 you're asking for a contender to need a SS and be willing to trade AAA players/guys who will be ready end of this year or early next who are better than the guys the Twins already have that will need to join the 40-man next year. So now you're not only trading Correa, but also adding even more players to the list of guys you're going to risk losing in the Rule V or to waivers as you bounce people off the 40-man.

No rebuilding team is going to want him for the same reason you're suggesting the Twins should trade him. I assume they wouldn't trade him in the division. Tampa doesn't need a SS (that Franco kid is pretty good). The Yanks would've just signed him if they wanted him and they've turned down the chance to trade their top prospects for all the As guys so find it hard to believe they'd suddenly trade them for half a season of Correa. Houston doesn't need him and wouldn't pay him before the year so doubt they're trading stud prospects for him. Maybe the Angels want him? Mets have Lindor so they're not trading for him. Philly has their 24 year old, top prospect SS in the bigs already, and you think Lewis is one of the reasons the Twins would trade Correa so by that logic Bryson Stott is a reason Philly wouldn't trade for him. Milwaukee would never do a move like that. Maybe the cards? Dodgers, Pads, and Giants don't need SSs. So you have maybe the Angels and Cards? You think that's enough to drive up the prospect price so high that it's worth trading Correa?

Cards top prospect is already in the bigs so they're not trading Gorman. Maybe they trade Walker who's multiple years away still. Libatore also already in the bigs so not trading him. Herrera is their Yadi replacement and already in the bigs. So maybe they can build a package around Walker and Winn (a no hit, glove only SS) who are both multiple years away from making the bigs? The Angels don't have a top prospect above AA. Most of their top guys are in A ball. So they're real far away. That's what you want in return for Correa? A ball lottery tickets who could be ready in 2025 if they even make it beyond AA?

Edit to add: Boegarts is almost surely going to be traded as the Red Sox have been terrible and they have Story to replace him. So now there's another star SS available which would drive the price down since if a team doesn't want to pay a crazy prospect price for Correa they'd just call the Sox about Boegarts. Even more reason why Correa won't be traded.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I agree with many others when I say do not trade him due to the need to have a quality SS who is dynamite in the playoffs and can lead us there when we get in.

The ONLY way would be if we dropped out of the division race, AND had no chance at the WC given the strength of the AL East, AND if a contender lost their SS to injury, and if that contender was on Correa's list of teams he would go to, AND we would get an ace starter plus a load of prospects.  Remember, he has a no trade clause the second two years of the contract.

All that said, those conditions are extremely unlikely to occur and I hope that they do not as I really like CC and what he brings to the team.  I hope the Twins sit down with him and draw up an extension.  I'd love to see one that is 7-years or less with some incentives like Buck's contract to protect the Twins from down years later on.

He was a great signing and I am enjoying watching him every day.  Even if we lose him at the end of the year for a compensation draft pick, I'd still be more than fine with that having had one year of his services.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

1. When trying to assess the "overwhelming" "return haul of prospects". You have to factor in his contract. It's not a club option... it is his. This clouds his value between rental and 2 more years of control which is a huge factor in what you can get in return in a trade. Plus consider the very nature of free agency. The majority of free agent signings go to the highest bidder which means a price point that is more than the other 29 teams are willing to spend and this consideration will bring his trade value down to almost nothing unless the Twins kick in significant money to offset. Granted the Twins will have paid off a good chunk of the money for this year by the trade deadline but not many clubs are willing to pay what is left over for just two months. 16 Million or so. In short... I'm not sure that the return would be overwhelming. 

2. If we win the division... We are Contenders until someone knocks us out. If we win the division... we will probably makes some additions at the deadline... not subtractions. If I ever felt for a second that the front office looked at a division leading team and said... Nope... not contenders. I'd want them fired immediately due to debilitating Hubris.  

3. I like the idea of Lewis and Correa working together on the same team. It doesn't have to be one or the other. 

4. I believe future free agents will sign with clubs that provide opportunity to win and the best money. Trading a free agent at the deadline won't sway them in the future. Trading a superstar from a contender might. 

 

[bunsen82]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I never said they had an "extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs." I said I think they need some extra arms to improve their chances, that's not the same thing. My stance on the playoffs is that you get in and take your chances. The Twins have 2 WS titles and were by no means "elite" teams those years and were expected to get bounced in the first round even after they made the playoffs. I'm sure glad they didn't take the chance to improve their team down the road and trade guys away those years.

As for the Indians, as was pointed out above, they were dumping payroll. They dropped $30M in payroll from 2019 to 2020. They had extra motivation to move their mid-rotation arm for multiple OFers where they had huge holes. That trade wasn't made to improve their chances when their "window was actually open," it was to move a guy who was a clubhouse problem and was at best their 3rd best starter, but more likely 4th best arm. Again, not comparable to Carlos Correa being the Twins' superstar, platinum glove winning SS.

When is their window actually going to be open? What if Lewis can't maintain a 162 OPS+ over more than 11 games? I don't think you're going to find many people who think he's ever going to be a platinum glove winner so he's not catching CC defensively. I'm a huge Royce believer and want him up now, but I'm not even close to suggesting he's a sure thing already. What if Kirilloff's wrist never gets better? What if Miranda never hits like he did in 2021? What if Larnach starts flailing away at breaking stuff again? What if Buxton gets hurt each of the next 7 years? What if the starters in the system don't work out? What is their "actual" window? 2023? 2024? 2027? If it's 2023 and/or 2024 you're asking for a contender to need a SS and be willing to trade AAA players/guys who will be ready end of this year or early next who are better than the guys the Twins already have that will need to join the 40-man next year. So now you're not only trading Correa, but also adding even more players to the list of guys you're going to risk losing in the Rule V or to waivers as you bounce people off the 40-man.

No rebuilding team is going to want him for the same reason you're suggesting the Twins should trade him. I assume they wouldn't trade him in the division. Tampa doesn't need a SS (that Franco kid is pretty good). The Yanks would've just signed him if they wanted him and they've turned down the chance to trade their top prospects for all the As guys so find it hard to believe they'd suddenly trade them for half a season of Correa. Houston doesn't need him and wouldn't pay him before the year so doubt they're trading stud prospects for him. Maybe the Angels want him? Mets have Lindor so they're not trading for him. Philly has their 24 year old, top prospect SS in the bigs already, and you think Lewis is one of the reasons the Twins would trade Correa so by that logic Bryson Stott is a reason Philly wouldn't trade for him. Milwaukee would never do a move like that. Maybe the cards? Dodgers, Pads, and Giants don't need SSs. So you have maybe the Angels and Cards? You think that's enough to drive up the prospect price so high that it's worth trading Correa?

Cards top prospect is already in the bigs so they're not trading Gorman. Maybe they trade Walker who's multiple years away still. Libatore also already in the bigs so not trading him. Herrera is their Yadi replacement and already in the bigs. So maybe they can build a package around Walker and Winn (a no hit, glove only SS) who are both multiple years away from making the bigs? The Angels don't have a top prospect above AA. Most of their top guys are in A ball. So they're real far away. That's what you want in return for Correa? A ball lottery tickets who could be ready in 2025 if they even make it beyond AA?

Edit to add: Boegarts is almost surely going to be traded as the Red Sox have been terrible and they have Story to replace him. So now there's another star SS available which would drive the price down since if a team doesn't want to pay a crazy prospect price for Correa they'd just call the Sox about Boegarts. Even more reason why Correa won't be traded.

Those 2 WS teams were much different than this team.   As much as I like this years pitching no one has the Pedigree of a Viola, Blyleven or Morris.   WS are won generally by a elite pitching,  either through elite SP or an elite bullpen.  The Twins have neither.  Yes,  there is always a chip and a chair,  but what is the difference if were to get bounced in the first round with or without Correa?   Teams and players can get hot similar to the Braves last year but the odds are incredibly slim. 

You can correct arguments as to why not to trade,  there are also reasons to trade.  The Yankees or a small market team that want to take a chance this year are likely the landing spot would be my guess but ultimately its not worth pondering.  Honestly I just looked at the standing but there really aren't many middle of the pack teams currently.  Angels, Arizona, Giants, Brewers (may want to take their chance this year), Yankees (can't trade with Red Sox have a high need), Padres (just to stack another elite player) plus anyone else who has an injury to SS or gets hot.  It is too hard to predict and frankly its not worth my time.  That also ignores teams like the dodgers that just pick up elite players and find a spot for them or someone else for a couple months.  

You are correct, the twins might be interested in trading but have no viable buyers.  I don't have all the answers.  

Damn you can also come up with a ton of excuses why the prospects will fail.  It is all probabilities,  the more elite prospects you have the better chance you 1-2 or several will excel.  Lewis looks like he belongs in the big show.  As some point you let your prospects show, no different than the Astros.  There are a ton of bats on the prospect lists,  some will fail some will surprise.  Lets just have some patience.   

[bunsen82]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No chance unless the team falls apart. The Twins seem to be a legit third best team in the AL.

For one, the front office isn't that oblivious. 

For another, they already have a prospect crunch. The Twins have maybe a dozen players between AA and AAA that would/should/could be at the majors if the big league club had a dearth of talent like we have seen many years. And if you're trading Correa, it's to a contending team so you'd only be getting more prospects who have to play a level or two below where they should be playing.

My whole philosphy has been if the Twins were still competing they would do something similar to this offseason,  being buyers and sellers at the same time and rearranging the deck chairs.  You could improve your team for this year and improve your top level prospects.   Arreaz may be changing my opinion on first base,  it as an untraditional fit,  but he is an asset there in either case with his bat.   If you can consolidate our prospects to more elite prospects, even if they need another year or two of season, you do that,  and you trade some of your other prospects that will decrease the rule V crunch and losing some assets for nothing.  SS appears to be an area of strength.  Now it is just as possibly that we have Lewis play in other positions,  to keep both players on the team.  I think he has the makeup,  but I also did see he was 0-5 the other night that he was in the outfield.  Players generally like consistency.  

[twins_89]

I think if some team offers a major package of young talent and prospects the Twins will seriously consider moving Correa. I don't have much faith in the Twins starting pitching holding up in the playoffs (playoff teams like the Dodgers and Astros have absolutely destroyed the Twins this season), so cashing him in for a strong return could really help the team over the next 5 years (when they could be in a better position to compete in the post season).

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

over the next 5 years (when they could be in a better position to compete in the post season).

They likely won't have Carlos Correa over the next 5 years. Buxton is in his prime. The time to go for it is now. Add another starter to the pitching staff to replace Bundy/Archer. .

[Drunk_Goose]

If we trade Correa this season, I will have lost all faith in this franchise. Period.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Those 2 WS teams were much different than this team.   As much as I like this years pitching no one has the Pedigree of a Viola, Blyleven or Morris.   WS are won generally by a elite pitching,  either through elite SP or an elite bullpen.  The Twins have neither.  Yes,  there is always a chip and a chair,  but what is the difference if were to get bounced in the first round with or without Correa?   Teams and players can get hot similar to the Braves last year but the odds are incredibly slim. 

You can correct arguments as to why not to trade,  there are also reasons to trade.  The Yankees or a small market team that want to take a chance this year are likely the landing spot would be my guess but ultimately its not worth pondering.  Honestly I just looked at the standing but there really aren't many middle of the pack teams currently.  Angels, Arizona, Giants, Brewers (may want to take their chance this year), Yankees (can't trade with Red Sox have a high need), Padres (just to stack another elite player) plus anyone else who has an injury to SS or gets hot.  It is too hard to predict and frankly its not worth my time.  That also ignores teams like the dodgers that just pick up elite players and find a spot for them or someone else for a couple months.  

You are correct, the twins might be interested in trading but have no viable buyers.  I don't have all the answers.  

Damn you can also come up with a ton of excuses why the prospects will fail.  It is all probabilities,  the more elite prospects you have the better chance you 1-2 or several will excel.  Lewis looks like he belongs in the big show.  As some point you let your prospects show, no different than the Astros.  There are a ton of bats on the prospect lists,  some will fail some will surprise.  Lets just have some patience.   

Look, it's not crazy to suggest it's possible they trade Correa. What's crazy is saying it's not only likely, but a 75% chance. "I don't have all the answers" is a reasonable stance, but you better have more than "Arizona may be willing to trade elite prospects for the chance to try to jump multiple of SF, SD, LA, STL, MIL and hold off PHI and ATL" as answers. The Yankees aren't trading elite prospects for half a season of Correa. They wouldn't trade them for 2 full seasons of Montas (and you claim, falsely, that "WS are won generally by elite pitching") so I'm not sure why you're so confident they'd be willing to trade them for half a season of Correa. 

I have no problem with you thinking there's a chance. But you haven't provided 1 realistic scenario based on actual events that have taken place. I'm all for bold takes (I spent all offseason claiming Royce Lewis would be basically ready from the jump this year so I've had my bold takes), but I need more answers than "they aren't elite" followed by suggestions that other non-elite teams would dump elite prospects for him for half a season.

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I was being snarky. 

I know. So was I.  Just had to get the MN sarcasm out!

[Tim]

Ya so this is definitely not happening. Teams with a 65% chance of making the playoffs heading into June don't trade one the the 3 most important players to the roster. 

That's not even factoring into the equation he's the only member of the team with real playoff experience and proven success (queue jokes) 

Even if they fall off somehow and are 5-6 games back come Aug 2, you roll the dice. Especially given the amount of divisional games in September. 

The return on a rental would really be pretty minimal and fans would absolutely be disappointed. 

Check out what the Blue Jays got for Donaldson or the Orioles for Machado. 

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Look, it's not crazy to suggest it's possible they trade Correa. What's crazy is saying it's not only likely, but a 75% chance. "I don't have all the answers" is a reasonable stance, but you better have more than "Arizona may be willing to trade elite prospects for the chance to try to jump multiple of SF, SD, LA, STL, MIL and hold off PHI and ATL" as answers. The Yankees aren't trading elite prospects for half a season of Correa. They wouldn't trade them for 2 full seasons of Montas (and you claim, falsely, that "WS are won generally by elite pitching") so I'm not sure why you're so confident they'd be willing to trade them for half a season of Correa. 

I have no problem with you thinking there's a chance. But you haven't provided 1 realistic scenario based on actual events that have taken place. I'm all for bold takes (I spent all offseason claiming Royce Lewis would be basically ready from the jump this year so I've had my bold takes), but I need more answers than "they aren't elite" followed by suggestions that other non-elite teams would dump elite prospects for him for half a season.

I have given more than enough supporting info and I still stand by both trades,  fyi you have never disputed the Indians trade that they were still in contention, even if you disputed the value he had to the pitching staff.  I state fairly certainly this is a strong possibility, because I believe this was managements plan all along.  Now they may deviate,  I am giving them that ability, but you don't generally change from your plan unless either something has changed significantly or you are unable to get the return you expected.  I can be confident in a trade and not know who the trade partners is.   I think they maintain with the plan even if they are winning,  if Lewis is still performing well and looks like the heir apparent at shortstop.   

My brother is trying to sell his house,  it only takes one person who at the time wants it.  It may be because they feel desperate it may be because they think its a great value, or it may be because something else fell through and they think this is as good of a fallback option as possible.  Now in this case he is trying to sell in what has quickly become a more depressed housing market - so the value that was there a month ago may not still be there now.  There are lots of variables that can affect the final outcome.  Even still similar to what I view the Twins, it is his intent to sell the house.  There is a better than 80% chance it gets sold.   

My viewpoints are what I view Managements viewpoints as,  and they haven't been traditional in how they have operated and I don't anticipate it to suddenly switch to a traditional management style.  I think everything is transactional to them,  they want to sell high and buy low and never leave value on the table unless they truly have a shot at winning it all.  So with that as my base case,  I see very little chance they don't trade Correa,  due to asset maximization.  You think 75% is pie in the sky,  actually I think its fairly reasonable,  all things considered I think they trade 3 out of 4 times.  They either fall out of the hunt, they remain in the hunt but it is fairly clear they are not a WS caliber team and or they are still leading the division and they still stick to the plan.   You don't trade Rogers if you are going for it all, even if you think Paddack could be a #2 or #3 starter.  You trade Rogers for the long term value of the trade.  For everyone who thinks they will not trade Correa this all comes back to Rogers, true contenders don't trade their best reliever.  Until you can reconcile and explain that away that trade I maintain my viewpoint,  the thing is you can disagree.  I could really care less.   My view point is mine, yours is yours, its obvious we aren't going to convince each other.   We won't know the outcome for a couple more months so lets bygones be bygones and let it play out.  

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No chance unless the team falls apart. The Twins seem to be a legit third best team in the AL.

For one, the front office isn't that oblivious. 

For another, they already have a prospect crunch. The Twins have maybe a dozen players between AA and AAA that would/should/could be at the majors if the big league club had a dearth of talent like we have seen many years. And if you're trading Correa, it's to a contending team so you'd only be getting more prospects who have to play a level or two below where they should be playing.

You hit the nail on the head, Nick, We have a prospect (40 man) crunch. To me it doesn't make sense to keep kicking the can down the road and continue to hoard prospects. Right now we have a ton of redundant players, we don't need to add to that crunch. We need to trade away some of them to upgrade our roster.

With Correa we have a great team that could go a long way. Who knows when we can  get another chance at this caliber player again together with our core. We have to go for all the marbles. I was thinking about Atlanta too. All it takes is everything to click and gel together at the right time and having that momentum at the right time. If Baldelli start to use his long relief and saves his short relief & rotation, pitching could be fresh & strong for the post season.

If FO flip/ flops, I say get rid of them. If you keep kicking the can down the road you'll never get anywhere.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I have given more than enough supporting info and I still stand by both trades,  fyi you have never disputed the Indians trade that they were still in contention, even if you disputed the value he had to the pitching staff.  I state fairly certainly this is a strong possibility, because I believe this was managements plan all along.  Now they may deviate,  I am giving them that ability, but you don't generally change from your plan unless either something has changed significantly or you are unable to get the return you expected.  I can be confident in a trade and not know who the trade partners is.   I think they maintain with the plan even if they are winning,  if Lewis is still performing well and looks like the heir apparent at shortstop.   

My brother is trying to sell his house,  it only takes one person who at the time wants it.  It may be because they feel desperate it may be because they think its a great value, or it may be because something else fell through and they think this is as good of a fallback option as possible.  Now in this case he is trying to sell in what has quickly become a more depressed housing market - so the value that was there a month ago may not still be there now.  There are lots of variables that can affect the final outcome.  Even still similar to what I view the Twins, it is his intent to sell the house.  There is a better than 80% chance it gets sold.   

My viewpoints are what I view Managements viewpoints as,  and they haven't been traditional in how they have operated and I don't anticipate it to suddenly switch to a traditional management style.  I think everything is transactional to them,  they want to sell high and buy low and never leave value on the table unless they truly have a shot at winning it all.  So with that as my base case,  I see very little chance they don't trade Correa,  due to asset maximization.  You think 75% is pie in the sky,  actually I think its fairly reasonable,  all things considered I think they trade 3 out of 4 times.  They either fall out of the hunt, they remain in the hunt but it is fairly clear they are not a WS caliber team and or they are still leading the division and they still stick to the plan.   You don't trade Rogers if you are going for it all, even if you think Paddack could be a #2 or #3 starter.  You trade Rogers for the long term value of the trade.  For everyone who thinks they will not trade Correa this all comes back to Rogers, true contenders don't trade their best reliever.  Until you can reconcile and explain that away that trade I maintain my viewpoint,  the thing is you can disagree.  I could really care less.   My view point is mine, yours is yours, its obvious we aren't going to convince each other.   We won't know the outcome for a couple more months so lets bygones be bygones and let it play out.  

I haven't contended that the Indians weren't trying to compete, I've contended that that still doesn't prove your point as they traded a mid-rotation arm with another year of control to a rebuilding team for 2 major league pieces and a flier prospect. My problem is you trying to compare that to trading a superstar SS with no future control for prospects. They aren't the same thing. At all.

You claim to have this great understanding of this front office and are using that as the basis of your opinion yet you're confused by them trading a reliever for a starter and reliever if they're trying to contend. The most obvious thing about this FO is that they find relievers to be incredibly expendable and replaceable. And they've been incredibly successful with that strategy since they were able to get their manager and pitching coach into place. They don't ask for Pagan back in that trade if they're not trying to win. They ask for a better prospect than the arm they got or they ask for another prospect instead of Pagan. Your own arguments just constantly disprove your other ones. If that trade was all about an eye on the future they don't ask for Pagan. You're using your valuation of Rogers in that trade equation instead of theirs. They don't think you need big time relievers. That's the reconciliation and explanation of that trade. They thought Paddack and Pagan gave them a better chance to win in 2022 (and beyond is a nice bonus) than just Rogers.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

Too early. Correa 100% opts out if he's playing well and is reasonably healthy. He hasn't been healthy and he hasn't been playing well.

If Correa turns it around (which he likely will) and stays healthy while playing well, the Twins will shop him... guaranteed. Opposing teams will view Correa as a likely rental so he won't bring a huge haul and that will factor into the Twins' decision. If the Twins flop and are chasing a playoff spot, Correa gets traded in this scenario. If the Twins are in the thick of it or leading the division handily, a much lower likelihood.

[bunsen82]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I haven't contended that the Indians weren't trying to compete, I've contended that that still doesn't prove your point as they traded a mid-rotation arm with another year of control to a rebuilding team for 2 major league pieces and a flier prospect. My problem is you trying to compare that to trading a superstar SS with no future control for prospects. They aren't the same thing. At all.

You claim to have this great understanding of this front office and are using that as the basis of your opinion yet you're confused by them trading a reliever for a starter and reliever if they're trying to contend. The most obvious thing about this FO is that they find relievers to be incredibly expendable and replaceable. And they've been incredibly successful with that strategy since they were able to get their manager and pitching coach into place. They don't ask for Pagan back in that trade if they're not trying to win. They ask for a better prospect than the arm they got or they ask for another prospect instead of Pagan. Your own arguments just constantly disprove your other ones. If that trade was all about an eye on the future they don't ask for Pagan. You're using your valuation of Rogers in that trade equation instead of theirs. They don't think you need big time relievers. That's the reconciliation and explanation of that trade. They thought Paddack and Pagan gave them a better chance to win in 2022 (and beyond is a nice bonus) than just Rogers.

They traded for Pagan and Paddack because of the LONG TERM value of the trade 3 years of Paddack  2 of Pagan vs 1 of Rogers.   They are willing to take on Paddacks  injury risk because of his upside - and because if it fails they are switching to a new procedure that is generally 9-12 months to heal, not the 18-24 months in the past.   These saw Paddack and Pagan as someone they could get more value out of,  for the long term.    That is my stance,  currently as it stands for this year it is Pagan for Rogers straight up - this wasn't a win now move.  It was a move based on the long term.   They needed another arm for the bullpen because they needed another arm especially with the question marks they had.    I agree with their rational on relievers,  that you don't pay them,  but also they are the last piece you go for,  because they are the cheapest thing to acquire in trades.  You can always get that at deadline and when you are fully prepared to put your chips in.   

Now see your viewpoint differs from everyone else on this board,  because they do not see Paddack and Pagan as a win now move.  It was getting rid of your best reliever who impacts games,  just like he is doing in San Diego right now.  It is clear what most people think of that trade.   Your stance is one that isn't main stream,  just like my view point on them trading Correa isn't mainstream.  let me have my opinion and move on.  

[LewFordLives]

I agree with most of the other posts that there is no way they would (or should) trade Correa if they're still in the playoff hunt. And even if this is something the Twins would consider, I don't think the return would be as big as some might expect. He would effectively be a 3 month rental.   If the Twins are out of it, then by all means, they should take whatever they can get, but unless they absolutely nose dive in the next month, that's not gonna happen.

[TeJayDubz]

I do find it amusing that Correa has stated publicly that he wants to stay in Minnesota, and wants to hash out a long-term deal and everyone just thinks he's posturing and saving face in the public eye. I like to believe that he actually does like Minnesota, as many people do, and the possibility of an extension isn't off the table. EVEN with Lewis in the background. I'd rather Have CC at SS, and Lewis at 3B than Lewis at SS and Urshela at 3B. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, baul0010 said:

If they are a competent front office they would be stupid to not inquire with Carlos.  I thought his agent was Scott Boras, so you aren't getting any future plans from Scott.  But, seeing what Scott likes to do, I wouldn't think there are any plans of being in MN after this year.  Unless I hear something from Carlos, I'm trading and loading up on more assets.  AND....I want to keep Carlos.  

If they're competent, they do not talk to other front offices about trading Correa. That's exactly the kind of thing that gets leaked to the press and could lead to disastrous results while a clubhouse and manager are focusing on a pennant run.

Just enjoy the nice thing you have and worry about next year, next year.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Those 2 WS teams were much different than this team.   As much as I like this years pitching no one has the Pedigree of a Viola, Blyleven or Morris.   WS are won generally by a elite pitching,  either through elite SP or an elite bullpen.  The Twins have neither.  Yes,  there is always a chip and a chair,  but what is the difference if were to get bounced in the first round with or without Correa?   Teams and players can get hot similar to the Braves last year but the odds are incredibly slim. 

You can correct arguments as to why not to trade,  there are also reasons to trade.  The Yankees or a small market team that want to take a chance this year are likely the landing spot would be my guess but ultimately its not worth pondering.  Honestly I just looked at the standing but there really aren't many middle of the pack teams currently.  Angels, Arizona, Giants, Brewers (may want to take their chance this year), Yankees (can't trade with Red Sox have a high need), Padres (just to stack another elite player) plus anyone else who has an injury to SS or gets hot.  It is too hard to predict and frankly its not worth my time.  That also ignores teams like the dodgers that just pick up elite players and find a spot for them or someone else for a couple months.  

You are correct, the twins might be interested in trading but have no viable buyers.  I don't have all the answers.  

Damn you can also come up with a ton of excuses why the prospects will fail.  It is all probabilities,  the more elite prospects you have the better chance you 1-2 or several will excel.  Lewis looks like he belongs in the big show.  As some point you let your prospects show, no different than the Astros.  There are a ton of bats on the prospect lists,  some will fail some will surprise.  Lets just have some patience.   

This is the natural by-product of being told for years that "This is what a World Series team looks like" and if you don't fit that mold you can't win.  How many years did Twins fans lament the lack of an ace to win in the playoffs while completely ignoring how many L's we took while having Johan freaking Santana.

Look, trading Correa was something we had in our back pocket preseason with the way this contract was structured.  It was absolutely on the table in early April if this team wasn't good this year.  Well....they are good.  So it's off the table.  You get to the playoffs now.

[jorgenswest]

They should do the opposite and sacrifice the future in trades. Pay up for a left handed high leverage reliever even on an expiring contract. Pay up for a starter that pushes Gray and Ryan to number 2 and 3 in the rotation.

[Monkeypaws]

What a bring-down that would be, miracle signing of THE top free agent, and then trade him at the deadline for prospects.

I do understand the asset management part of the equation, but talk about can't have nothing nice....

[bunsen82]

18 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The odds that Correa is on this team in 2023 are higher than the odds he gets traded in 2022.

If Correa is willing to resign another 1 year deal with option years then yes I could see that happen, but he wants the 7-10 year mega contract. It’s the reason he switched to Boras.  Unless he likes Minnesota so much he changes course and is willing to give a discount.