Deadline Trade of Correa

[farmerguychris]

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

[High heat]

As long as we are in the division race ( at this point there is almost no chance we fall out by ASG) we wont trade Correa.  Yes he would bring a prospect hall but the club house presence and the opportunity to play in the playoff as a division winner there is no way he is moved.  

 

I dont believe we are championship team but you have to get that 0-18 off our back and if you get in the playoff you have a change, especially in baseball.  

 

 

[rwilfong86]

I think the likelihood of trading Correa is less than 0%. 

[CRF]

Just my two cents...I'd give him whatever he wants to stay here. 5 years, 7 years, 10 years...whatever dollar figure it takes to keep him. If we don't, some other team will. We have the money to do it, just open the Pohlad wallet and get it done. CC's the best thing to come along the pike for us in a very long time. He's superb defensively, his hitting will only get better through the season...he's proved that, and he's such a positive influence in the clubhouse/dug out and leader for this team that's it's beyond measure. I don't care what our record is, we have to find a way to keep him. 

[Puckett34]

I think as long as they are in the mix in the division, there is about 0% chance they do anything.  

[rwilfong86]

3 minutes ago, CRF said:

Just my two cents...I'd give him whatever he wants to stay here. 5 years, 7 years, 10 years...whatever dollar figure it takes to keep him. If we don't, some other team will. We have the money to do it, just open the Pohlad wallet and get it done. CC's the best thing to come along the pike for us in a very long time. He's superb defensively, his hitting will only get better through the season...he's proved that, and he's such a positive influence in the clubhouse/dug out and leader for this team that's it's beyond measure. I don't care what our record is, we have to find a way to keep him. 

Agreed. They can use Royce at other places in the lineup besides shortstop as well. 

[chpettit19]

If they're in the mix for the division at the deadline (at this point it's hard to imagine them falling apart so bad that they aren't), I'd hope the plan is to add to the team, not subtract. I don't think they're so far off from being able to compete in the playoffs that they decide to trade Correa over going and getting a big time pen arm or 2 and another starter let's say. The reports out there are that they're still talking with the As off and on about Montas. I'd think that's a sign that they'd look to add at the deadline, not trade away the 2nd best player on the team.

[Dman]

29 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

If the Twins are in it I can't see them trading Correa.  Just having the chance to win the division would make it worth keeping him.  There is also the problem of lining up with a trading partner.  The Dodgers, Astro's, Tampa Bay, Blue Jay's, Met's, San Diego,  are all pretty much set at short and I don't think the Yankee's really want Correa on their team since they feel Houston cheated them out of being in the World Series.  

Even the few teams that might want him as an upgrade if they can't afford to extend him would be hard pressed to give up the prospect capital necessary to get him.  There is a reason he wasn't signed over the offseason.  I think the odds are low he gets moved at the deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

I hate the idea of weakening a playoff team. The thought is really, really, weird. I don't get this at all. 

[Squirrel]

Concur with most here. If we are in it, even if we think the likelihood of winning a WS is less than other teams, if we are in it, we keep Correa. It makes NO SENSE to trade him at that point, none. Lewis will not fill his shoes at ss no matter how good he's doing, he will not, not even close. And trading Correa while we are contending, we may as well just hang it up and not contend.

As for what we could get for him, we will never get a return for what he's worth, never. No contending team will give us enough because they want to keep their pieces, too. And no building team is going to give us that many prospects for someone who is gone at the end of the season, because he will not stay on a building team and will opt out.

And if we are completely out of it, and I mean zero chance to make the playoffs then  maybe we can have a discussion, but that is looking less and less likely the case. We will have to see what the next month brings.

Remember Santana and what we got for him? I consider these two comparable talents. Yeah ... no team will be able to afford the prospects or players in a return and we will be the worse for it. The lesson from the Santana trade is to keep your best talent and try to win, and if he walks at the end, so be it.

[bunsen82]

I think its an 75% chance they trade him which is different than most.  In another thread we hashed out the reasoning.  It is not unheard of for teams still trying to compete such as the Indians in 2019 trading Trevor Bauer.   The other being Tampa Bay trading Chris Archer.  Trevor was having a down year and Archer was starting to lose his elite stuff.  Correa is definitely more respected than those players but he is also not having a top 10 performance so far this year either,  but so far he has been very very good. It really comes down to what is your time horizon and whether you think this team has a legit shot at winning it all.  As constructed I don't think management ever thought they would do this well.  They are slightly outperforming.  The SP depth is really starting to get tested with injuries and I think we are starting to see the beginning stages of the bullpen started to get a bit of overuse.  The bats are performing better.  Even still this iteration is 1-2 years away from being truly elite is my personal opinion and the organization would be better off trading Correa than having him on the team another 2 months.  Now would I be open to contract extension especially if he were to give a decent discount,  would I also keep him if he stated he would not opt out this year -  the answer to both is yes.    The ideal situation is Correa isn't satisfied with his production this year and comes back on his contract for another year or more likely scenario is he signs another 1 year contract with another option year or two so Boras gets his full cut.  We are starting to get a lot of prospects coming up,  and the team is set to either play small ball in a dead ball era or go the masher route.  That is the one nice thing with the prospects - there is a variety in skillset.  We will know more come July and we will see if the Twins are still in contention.  As long as Arreaz and Kepler and Celestino are hitting solidly,  (both arreaz and Celestino above .300 - in this new dead ball year I think the offense will do fairly well).    This is clearly a wait and see at this point.  

[Trov]

First, he is 100% opting out if he is healthy the full year, so no need to talk to him about what his thoughts are.  The deal when signed everyone knew it was a 1 year deal if he was health and performed near his career norms, so unless he regresses on that end, or is injured, he will be opting out.  

That being said, if we are in line for playoffs we do not trade him for prospects.  If there is a trade upgrade at a position of need for the playoff run and you are set that Lewis will do the job, then maybe you trade Correa to upgrade at the deadline for this year, not for years down the road prospects.  

To address your second question, any team that makes playoffs can win the WS.  but was Atlanta the favorite last year? Was the Nationals in 2019?  Was the Red Sox in 2018? Was the Astros in 2017? I think you know where I am going.  Rarely does the on paper favorite win the WS.  I mean in both the Twins WS wins we were not the favorite to win them entering the season or entering the playoffs, or even entering the WS. 

To address the third question, sure Lewis in his SSS looks the part, but why make your team worse, even if Lewis is competent he is not Correa at this point, if you truly are trying for a ship? 

To address the forth question, trading Correa at the deadline would not affect future signings because everyone in baseball knew what the deal was, it was a 1 year dealing giving Correa insurance if he gets hurt or has a bad down year. 

Summary, I do not trade him if team is on pace to make playoffs.  He has great experience in playoffs and defense is key in playoffs and he is one of best, if not the best defender in game right now, and he can hit as well.  He may not be MVP hitter, but he is above average to go with elite defense. Unless someone is willing to give up front end starter this year, and prospects down the road for years to come no way do I listen, but if you can make the team better this year and years to come, then I would listen. 

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I hate the idea of weakening a playoff team. The thought is really, really, weird. I don't get this at all. 

I think the premise is the team isn't really a World Series contender so why not trade an elite player for assets that might make the team stronger for next year and the years after in the hopes that the Twins are better positioned to win it all in 2023. 

The flaw in that theory though is that this team won't have devastating injuries next year and or players won't regress etc. etc.  If 2021 taught us anything it is that the best laid plans can go awry for various reasons.  I get his concept and Tampa dabbles in that type of trading but it could cost you a WS title because Atlanta reminds us you never know how things are going to play out in the end.

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

I think the likelihood of trading Correa is less than 0%. 

This, and that's the way it should be.

[Squirrel]

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think the premise is the team isn't really a World Series contender so why not trade an elite player for assets that might make the team stronger for next year and the years after in the hopes that the Twins are better positioned to win it all in 2023. 

The flaw in that theory though is that this team won't have devastating injuries next year and or players won't regress etc. etc.  If 2021 taught us anything it is that the best laid plans can go awry for various reasons.  I get his concept and Tampa dabbles in that type of trading but it could cost you a WS title because Atlanta reminds us you never know how things are going to play out in the end.

Because no contending team is going to give us the assets we want or need to contend, if not this year, next year. They want those same pieces for themselves. If they even had the assets to trade to us, they would want to give us prospects that are years away, and this is not where we are now. That is a big signal to all our current players that we are only ever playing to build, not win. And it's a very bad signal to any potential free agents. This 'well, we won't win the WS anyway' rationale is very, very short-sighted, imo. We have Correa for the year, so go for it, and ride out the year with Correa. No one, and I mean no one, fills his shoes at SS. No one. And if Correa walks at the end of the season, so be it. Did we not learn any lessons from trading Santana? If you think we are going to get anything better this time around, I think it's wishful thinking.

[nicksaviking]

No chance unless the team falls apart. The Twins seem to be a legit third best team in the AL.

For one, the front office isn't that oblivious. 

For another, they already have a prospect crunch. The Twins have maybe a dozen players between AA and AAA that would/should/could be at the majors if the big league club had a dearth of talent like we have seen many years. And if you're trading Correa, it's to a contending team so you'd only be getting more prospects who have to play a level or two below where they should be playing.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I think its an 75% chance they trade him which is different than most.  In another thread we hashed out the reasoning.  It is not unheard of for teams still trying to compete such as the Indians in 2019 trading Trevor Bauer.   The other being Tampa Bay trading Chris Archer.  Trevor was having a down year and Archer was starting to lose his elite stuff.  Correa is definitely more respected than those players but he is also not having a top 10 performance so far this year either,  but so far he has been very very good. It really comes down to what is your time horizon and whether you think this team has a legit shot at winning it all.  As constructed I don't think management ever thought they would do this well.  They are slightly outperforming.  The SP depth is really starting to get tested with injuries and I think we are starting to see the beginning stages of the bullpen started to get a bit of overuse.  The bats are performing better.  Even still this iteration is 1-2 years away from being truly elite is my personal opinion and the organization would be better off trading Correa than having him on the team another 2 months.  Now would I be open to contract extension especially if he were to give a decent discount,  would I also keep him if he stated he would not opt out this year -  the answer to both is yes.    The ideal situation is Correa isn't satisfied with his production this year and comes back on his contract for another year or more likely scenario is he signs another 1 year contract with another option year or two so Boras gets his full cut.  We are starting to get a lot of prospects coming up,  and the team is set to either play small ball in a dead ball era or go the masher route.  That is the one nice thing with the prospects - there is a variety in skillset.  We will know more come July and we will see if the Twins are still in contention.  As long as Arreaz and Kepler and Celestino are hitting solidly,  (both arreaz and Celestino above .300 - in this new dead ball year I think the offense will do fairly well).    This is clearly a wait and see at this point.  

Tampa Bay was 20 games back in their division and 10 games back of the 2nd wild card spot when they traded Chris Archer. Please stop comparing that to a team leading their division (or within a couple games) like we're expecting the Twins to be based on their current situation. They are not remotely close to the same thing.

And Trevor Bauer had had 1 season with an ERA under 4 before he was traded. He wasn't having a "down year" he was having a career norm year. So please stop comparing him to Carlos Correa. He's not remotely the same player.

[Rosterman]

ANy team that he would be traded to would be in the same dilema as the Twins. The ball is in the court of Correa. He can play for one or two more seasons at a very high salary, or become a free agent.

If a contender is trading for him, they have a shortstop that has gone down in the season. What kind of apckage would they have to put together for half a season and $13 million added to payroll?

Not sure what the "no trade" clause is totally like, but no other team NOT in contention would take on Correa.

Of course, the Twins would probably be more than happoy to rid themselves of the current salary if they find themselves anywhere out of the top spots in the division. The chances of either Wild Card coming from the central, though, don't look all that good.

The Twins are in one of those unique positions, like they were in 2020. No one really thought they would be playing the ball they are playing. Remember, there has been a lot of close knit games, and it is pitching that is currently doing well for the Twins - albeit overusing bullpen arms like crazy and the continuing low usage of rotation arms. Can any, soon, pitch six innings consistently?

Correa is an expensive luxury. He has been a good guy in the clubhouse, it seems, and stays in the game when at the dugout rail. Even if Royce would be moved to third, the Twins are playing Austin Martin enough at shortstop, and he is probably a good year away from getting regular duty in the major leagues.

Correa will be playing some of the best abseball of his career shortly. He wants a bigger contract. He needs to push his numbers beyond his norm. The Twins can benefit from this!

 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And Trevor Bauer had had 1 season with an ERA under 4 before he was traded. He wasn't having a "down year" he was having a career norm year. So please stop comparing him to Carlos Correa. He's not remotely the same player.

And despite Cleveland's record and recent success, they had made it abundantly clear that they were going to be slashing payroll the next season. They went from 119M in 2019 to 89M in 2020. Same reason they traded Lindor the following year. Cleveland still hasn't boosted their payroll to the levels it should be at.

The Twins are just starting (hopefully) their competitive period; they aren't looking to shed payroll at the expense of quality players.

[spanman2]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

As long as we are in the division race ( at this point there is almost no chance we fall out by ASG) we wont trade Correa.  Yes he would bring a prospect hall but the club house presence and the opportunity to play in the playoff as a division winner there is no way he is moved.  

 

I dont believe we are championship team but you have to get that 0-18 off our back and if you get in the playoff you have a change, especially in baseball.  

 

 

Very well said!

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Tampa Bay was 20 games back in their division and 10 games back of the 2nd wild card spot when they traded Chris Archer. Please stop comparing that to a team leading their division (or within a couple games) like we're expecting the Twins to be based on their current situation. They are not remotely close to the same thing.

And Trevor Bauer had had 1 season with an ERA under 4 before he was traded. He wasn't having a "down year" he was having a career norm year. So please stop comparing him to Carlos Correa. He's not remotely the same player.

They were stars to their respective teams,  no different than a Buxton or even a Correa for what he has provided to the Twins.  You may dislike the comparisons but it doesn't negate they actually occurred- and fyi they must have been better than chopped liver because both teams got very good returns.  We have no idea where the Twins will be in another month,  there is a possibility the starting Pitching falls apart -  none of these pitchers other than Gray are used to the number of innings of a full season.  Its why we were working with a 6-7 pitcher rotation.  Losing Paddack hurts.   We are feasting on the bottom dwellers,  which a top team should.  We will see how they do against elite competition which occurs in June.  

You still haven't shown this is an elite team.  Other than Duran and Smith the RP are rather ho hum,  the starting pitchers again are very untested to 150 innings or more.     I stand by there is a better than 75% chance Correa gets traded,  I know fully where you stand.   This includes the possibility the Twins fall back in the standings, and 2nd we still trade him even though we are in the hunt.   This management shown by this years moves is playing the long game.    Correa fell in their lap we will see what happens.   

 

[Ex-Iowegian]

Under almost no circumstance would I think it necessary to trade CC at this year's deadline. There would be no upgrade to the team at all.

And the message it would send to the remaining players would be catastrophic.

 

[raindog]

My God. Please just enjoy watching a second superstar play for the Twins while we have him. He's not getting traded. Him And Buxton thriving together in the playoffs might be the best chance the Twins have to win another World Series.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

I think the likelihood of trading Correa is less than 0%. 

what is less than 0%?  Isn't 0% as low as you can go?

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal.  If he says he's "90% likely to opt out", I think we should consider trading him regardless of where we are in the standings.  What do you think?

Here is why:

1- The potential return haul of prospects is something that could be overwhelming for a player of Correa's status to a playoff contender looking to get over the top.

2 - While we may win our division - are we really a World Series contender at this point?

3 - While Lewis is no Correa, he has the potential to be an adequate starter in the league don't you think?

4 - Some may think by trading a superstar so early into his deal, that it may make it harder to sign other free agent superstars in the future - but lets be real, who was the last superstar we signed anyway before him?

While I think Correa has been a great addition to our team, someone I never expected us to sign - I think the potential return for him in trade could be something we have to consider unless we really think we have a chance at winning it all this year.

Thoughts?

 

If they are a competent front office they would be stupid to not inquire with Carlos.  I thought his agent was Scott Boras, so you aren't getting any future plans from Scott.  But, seeing what Scott likes to do, I wouldn't think there are any plans of being in MN after this year.  Unless I hear something from Carlos, I'm trading and loading up on more assets.  AND....I want to keep Carlos.  

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

They were stars to their respective teams,  no different than a Buxton or even a Correa for what he has provided to the Twins.  You may dislike the comparisons but it doesn't negate they actually occurred- and fyi they must have been better than chopped liver because both teams got very good returns.  We have no idea where the Twins will be in another month,  there is a possibility the starting Pitching falls apart -  none of these pitchers other than Gray are used to the number of innings of a full season.  Its why we were working with a 6-7 pitcher rotation.  Losing Paddack hurts.   We are feasting on the bottom dwellers,  which a top team should.  We will see how they do against elite competition which occurs in June.  

You still haven't shown this is an elite team.  Other than Duran and Smith the RP are rather ho hum,  the starting pitchers again are very untested to 150 innings or more.     I stand by there is a better than 75% chance Correa gets traded,  I know fully where you stand.   This includes the possibility the Twins fall back in the standings, and 2nd we still trade him even though we are in the hunt.   This management shown by this years moves is playing the long game.    Correa fell in their lap we will see what happens.   

 

I've never claimed this is an elite team so not sure what that has to do with anything. My claim is they're a playoff team and adding at the deadline would give them a chance in the playoffs. 

And, yes, the Rays got a great return for Archer. The Pirates were blasted for it at the time and have been ever since. It was one of the worst trades in baseball history. If the FO is planning on finding another team to have an all-time bad trade I wish them good luck. But none of that even matters. Because, as I pointed out, the Rays were not competing! They were 20 games out of their division. Not 2. Not 5. Not 10. Not 15. 20 games. They weren't 1 or 2 games back in the wild card. Not 5. Not 8. 10 games back of the wild card. They weren't competing. It. Is. Not. The. Same. Situation. For the Twins to be 20 back in the division by the deadline they'd have be fall apart so tragically that the entire team should probably retire and the team should be contracted. The Rays were 20 back. I can't emphasize that enough. They were not competing.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

what is less than 0%?  Isn't 0% as low as you can go?

I think the negative percentage here means we not only don't trade him, but we extend his contract. And that would be fun.

Trading Correa in the midst of a pennant run would be like ditching your dream date a few weeks before the prom. It's probably not a good move in all kinds of ways. 

[bunsen82]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I've never claimed this is an elite team so not sure what that has to do with anything. My claim is they're a playoff team and adding at the deadline would give them a chance in the playoffs. 

And, yes, the Rays got a great return for Archer. The Pirates were blasted for it at the time and have been ever since. It was one of the worst trades in baseball history. If the FO is planning on finding another team to have an all-time bad trade I wish them good luck. But none of that even matters. Because, as I pointed out, the Rays were not competing! They were 20 games out of their division. Not 2. Not 5. Not 10. Not 15. 20 games. They weren't 1 or 2 games back in the wild card. Not 5. Not 8. 10 games back of the wild card. They weren't competing. It. Is. Not. The. Same. Situation. For the Twins to be 20 back in the division by the deadline they'd have be fall apart so tragically that the entire team should probably retire and the team should be contracted. The Rays were 20 back. I can't emphasize that enough. They were not competing.

Then what about the Indians they weren't competing?  You can blow your horn all you want.  You admit they aren't an elite team with an extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs so why not trade for players that will likely help us when our window is actually open?

[GNess]

The Twins shouldn't trade Correa. Full stop.

[twinssporto]

It won't happen this year. Zero chance.

In fact, I think Correa likes it here and will stay through at least year 2.